A Different 1980
Deceit and Diffusion
Over the course of August Bush continued to make small gains on Carter as the image of Carter as a national saviour faded out of the public image. The margin narrowed to 20%, 19%, 18% and so on. A Lot hinged on the first presidential debate for both Carter and bush. The Carter camp was having worries that the momentum of Bush may produce an embarrassing result and seeked to affirm Carter as the frontrunner and the safe choice. Bush still tried to paint Carter as a mediocre leader.
The first debate took place at the Baltimore Convention center. Questioning over willingness to make unpopular decisions, the strategy over the energy crisis and defense went over smoothly with both candidates making strong statements. Then the issue turned to abortion and Christian values
Soma Golden: This week, Cardinal Medeiros of Boston warned Catholics that it’s sinful to vote for candidates who favor abortion. This did not defeat the two men he opposed, but it did raise questions about the roles of church and state. My question: Do you approve of the Church’s actions this week in Boston? And should a President be guided by organized religion on issues like abortion, equal rights, and defense spending?
Mr. Carter?
Carter: Oh okay I wasn't sure if it was my question. I have before said that I am personally opposed to abortion and that I do not believe Jesus Christ would have supported Abortion, However I also believe that we must respect the supreme court. Now… uh… whether somebody agrees or disagrees with me on that… Pardon me Ms. Golden. In this country it is important that whether we come from a church, synagogue or some other place of worship we should respect each other and listen to each other's opinions.
Golden: I do not believe that was a clear answer, I will repeat. Do you approve of the church’s actions this week in Boston and do you think a president should be guided by organized religion on political issues?
Carter: I think it is clear that some religious organizations will have clear views on political issues and they should have the right to but I believe rather than forcing your members into a certain view that we should have open discussions around issues like abortion and the equal rights movement. Just as we had discussions at my local Baptist church.
Carter's weak answer led to murmurings among Christian voters George Bush took the opportunity to give a much more competent answer which pleased his conservative base. The response threw Carter off leading to an underwhelming final message. A phone poll taken immediately after said that 60% thought that George Bush won while 27% thought that Carter won the debate with the rest undecided. The national margin started to fall under 10% in polls after the debate. The bush camp were thrilled with the results and were determined to ride the wave of momentum to a closer race.
The very next day on September the 22nd 1980 news broke from the middle east that the Iraqi army had launched a full scale invasion effort into Iran. Iraq launched the war to seize resources, control the Shatt-al-Arab and annex the Khuzestan Province. President Carter was in Torrance California at the time of the incident and chose to make a statement on it during the political event
“This event may convince Iran that they need peace with their neighbors, that they need to be part of the international community, they need to be able to have a strong and viable economy, they need to get spare parts for their military and so fourth and therefore induce them to calm down on the attacks against our country and our people”
- Jimmy Carter speaking on the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq war, September 22nd 1980
In private the administration toyed with the idea of aiding Iraq, Although a win by Iran would be terrible for the USA, a strong Iraqi win would give Saddam Hussein a dominance in the region. The US in secret tried to construct an arms deal that would help Iraq but not wipe out Iran, Leading to a balanced peace and quickly.
The arms deals may have contributed to a fast advancing front by Iraq, The resistance by Iran increased with Iraq still making gains along its entire front. Iraq made a major capture of Ahvaz in late September with the front still advancing into Iran. Peace deals were already being discussed for a border adjustment through only part of the Khuzestan province. With pressure from the USA Iraq offered peace to Iran only to be rejected. The war was still early and Iran still did not feel they were in a bad situation. Iraq in reaction decided to push much more aggressively into Iran Capturing port cities and breaching the Borders of the Province of Khuzestan by early October.
Back in the USA the vice Presidential debate between Walter Mondale and Howard Baker in Louisville was hosted, featuring questions about ability to lead the country through military conflict and social issues. Baker was seen as too fiery and Walter Mondale was considered to have won the debate, this made no impact on the race.
“We hope very much for a sensible and balanced peace in Iran and we hope that Iran will reconsider their dangerous rhetoric towards other nations. It is a good thing for all Americans if we stay at peace and that Iran and Iraq sort out their differences”
- Walter Mondale’s statement on the conflict in Iran, October 2nd 1980
The United Nations Security Council passed a unanimous resolution for a quick peace in the Middle East on September 28th when Iran again refused to negotiate further Several nations imposed further sanctions on both nations until a peace negotiation began. After further gains made by Iraq into Iran further occupying provinces just under 200 miles away from Tehran in an extremely short time on the 26th of October Iran and Iraq both accepted Resolution 479 and reluctantly began negotiations and ceased fire.
The US was perhaps a little worried about the large amount of land that they had allowed Iraq to occupy to Intimidate Iran but overall they were very happy about the embarrassment than Iran would suffer by losing coastal territory. Still, the peace came as a general surprise to the American public who had been fed by speculation that the war would not end for many years. The president hailed the peace as a victory of US diplomacy and shifted the dialogue in the face of the upcoming presidential debate in 2 days
Carter and Bush at the second debate
The second presidential Debate took place on the 28th of October in Cleveland Ohio. George Bush gave the appearance of confidence but as the debate rolled on it was clear that Carter was the most prepared for the debate. Bush started giving badly connected answers while Carters seemed the most polished by far. Carter defended US diplomacy by claiming that pressure for Peace left the US out of war (as far as the public was concerned) and Iran was weakened due to his leadership. A phone poll by CBS concluded that 65% thought that Carter won the debate and 20% were undecided with only 15% saying Bush won. Due to Bush’s fumbling he didn't engage in much attack leaving 81% of respondents saying that the content of the debate was mostly positive
As election night came closer the Carter camp opened up a large lead over Bush in the Polls,
Only election night would tell if it was to be the predicted landslide...
