AHC - Lay the groundwork for East Karelia and the Kola Peninsula to become part of Finland

[Masked Grizzly]

The challenge is to lay the groundwork for OTL East Karelia and the Kola Peninsula to become part of a post-WW1 independent Finland.

The PODs can range from one of the Russo-Swedish Wars up to the end of a post-WW1 Russian Civil War*, yet with the proviso of Russia still retaining St. Petersburg and Arkhangelsk with ATL Severodvinsk playing a similar role to OTL Murmansk (along with any other OTL settlement in the Arkhangelsk Oblast being further expanded).

* - Essentially WW1 roughly ends as it did in OTL yet the Western Allies decide early on to back the Finns in the region as a counter weight to the Red Army in tandem with the Russian Civil War continuing a bit longer to leave the Reds in a much weaker position for the Finns to move into the region (with Sweden or an ATL United Scandinavia providing much more backing - likely motivated to do so in order to use an expanded ATL Finland as a buffer state kind of like OTL Russia does with Belerus).

 

[The Professor]

I think the only way to do that is with an early POD involving Novgorod. If Sweden beats them and has the lands above the lakes recognised as its territory then those will naturally be seen as part of Finnish territory once Russia begins making gains. When Russia takes Finland then Karelia and Kola are seen as part of Russian Finland so any later moves for Finnish independence see that included.

 

[DanMcCollum]

Well, and this is just spitballing, but if Sweden was able to gain East Karelia and Kola from Russia is one of their wars, the chances are very good that it would be incorporated administratively into Finland due to the region's low population. Then, when FInland gets it's independence (either from Sweden, or Russia if it is reconquered) then the resulting Finnish state would likely encapsulate the whole region.

There might be a way to gain this prior to the Treaty of Tartu: but I'm not nearly knowledgable enough about the Russian Civil War and Finland's War for Independence, to be able to saw how with any certainty.

 

[Ficboy]

In any Nazi Victory/Axis Victory scenario, Finland would most likely gain control of East Karelia and the Kola Peninsula from the Soviet Union. That's another way for them to gain control of these predominantly Finnish regions.

 

[Masked Grizzly]

I think the only way to do that is with an early POD involving Novgorod. If Sweden beats them and has the lands above the lakes recognised as its territory then those will naturally be seen as part of Finnish territory once Russia begins making gains. When Russia takes Finland then Karelia and Kola are seen as part of Russian Finland so any later moves for Finnish independence see that included.

Well, and this is just spitballing, but if Sweden was able to gain East Karelia and Kola from Russia is one of their wars, the chances are very good that it would be incorporated administratively into Finland due to the region's low population. Then, when FInland gets it's independence (either from Sweden, or Russia if it is reconquered) then the resulting Finnish state would likely encapsulate the whole region.

There might be a way to gain this prior to the Treaty of Tartu: but I'm not nearly knowledgable enough about the Russian Civil War and Finland's War for Independence, to be able to saw how with any certainty.

That is something to work with, just a matter of resolving the specific PODs.

Envision ATL Finland still getting its independence from Russia, yet can still see a possibility of Russia retaining a small part of East Karelia likely from Petrozavodsk southwards similar to how Russia prior to the OTL Winter War still held St Petersburg that is technically part of historical West Karelia.

In any Nazi Victory/Axis Victory scenario, Finland would most likely gain control of East Karelia and the Kola Peninsula from the Soviet Union. That's another way for them to gain control of these predominantly Finnish regions.

A Nazi/Axis victory scenario would be too simple.

 

[Ficboy]

That is something to work with, just a matter of resolving the specific PODs.

Envision ATL Finland still getting its independence from Russia, yet can still see a possibility of Russia retaining a small part of East Karelia likely from Petrozavodsk southwards similar to how Russia prior to the OTL Winter War still held St Petersburg that is technically part of historical West Karelia.

A Nazi/Axis victory scenario would be too simple.

It's another viable way for Finland to gain control of Karelia and Lota Peninsula since they were allied with Nazi Germany especially in the early years of World War II.

 

[Saya Aensland]

Envision ATL Finland still getting its independence from Russia, yet can still see a possibility of Russia retaining a small part of East Karelia likely from Petrozavodsk southwards similar to how Russia prior to the OTL Winter War still held St Petersburg that is technically part of historical West Karelia.

The pre-WW2 Finno-Russian border still had a natural border, though. If the East Karelian border isn't at Svir, where is it? How is it decided?

 

[Masked Grizzly]

It's another viable way for Finland to gain control of Karelia and Lota Peninsula since they were allied with Nazi Germany especially in the early years of World War II.

It is though it comes with a lot more baggage and butterflies.

The pre-WW2 Finno-Russian border still had a natural border, though. If the East Karelian border isn't at Svir, where is it? How is it decided?

Not sure, perhaps the freshwater lakes north of Petrozavodsk such as at Syamozero and Vodlozero act as an admittingly unnatural border, am essentially thinking of a similar situation where the Finnish-Russian border was much nearer to St Petersburg / Leningrad prior to the Winter War.

 

[UnaiB]

@Karelian @DrakonFin

 

[The Professor]

@Karelian @DrakonFin

And what are your thoughts of this POD?

 

[Pexa]

Interesting idea, but hard to implement...

Perhaps, if we could butterfly away the great famine years of 1866-68, the extra population might have been willing to move eastward to the in many places empty forests of the area, thus making it majorly finnish. Even this is unlikely to change much, though.

Finnish famine of 1866–1868 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The government response was, to be polite, too little too late, and up to 150,000 people died. Had they acted earlier, much if not all of this could have been avoided.

Any later POD would IMO involve either a different revolution in Russia, or as said before, the Nazis.

 

[Masked Grizzly]

Interesting idea, but hard to implement...

Perhaps, if we could butterfly away the great famine years of 1866-68, the extra population might have been willing to move eastward to the in many places empty forests of the area, thus making it majorly finnish. Even this is unlikely to change much, though.

Finnish famine of 1866–1868 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The government response was, to be polite, too little too late, and up to 150,000 people died. Had they acted earlier, much if not all of this could have been avoided.

Any later POD would IMO involve either a different revolution in Russia, or as said before, the Nazis.

Taking into account most of the 150,000 Finns are able to survive the famine, to what degree does it increase the Finnish population in ATL compared to OTL? Is it simply a case of adding another 150,000 people in the 1870 historical population census? - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Finland

Like the idea of Sweden gaining East Karelia and Kola in some conflict or few with Novgorod/Russia prior to gradually coming under the rule of the latter yet still be considered part of Finland. An increase in the Finnish population together with a longer more protracted Russian Civil War that the Finns are able to capitalize on would also help matters, though recognize that even should they succeed their hold on much of the territory would be dependent on both backing from Sweden / ATL Scandinavia as well as an ATL successful British Norwegian campaign if events still unfold as in OTL.

 

[Masked Grizzly]

Did not realise there were two famines that affected Finland from 1866-1868 as well as an earlier famine in 1695-1697 that both took out 150000 people, though cannot find any records on the Finnish population from before 1750 other the latter managing to wipe out about a third of the population.

Probably somewhat less plausible would be the idea of other Finno-Ugric groups in Russia or elsewhere for some reason deciding to migrate to Finland over time and unwittingly further bolster the population enough to help make East Karelia and Kola part of Finland a more realistic possibility.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Probably somewhat less plausible would be the idea of other Finno-Ugric groups in Russia or elsewhere for some reason deciding to migrate to Finland over time and unwittingly further bolster the population enough to help make East Karelia and Kola part of Finland a more realistic possibility.

Instead it was the opposite, as a significant number (over 20,000) of Karelians moved to the vicinity of Tver where they kept their language well into the 20th century.

Other Finno-Ugric groups aren't numerous or really relevant since an Orthodox Mordvin doesn't really share much in common with a Protestant Finn and shares as much in common with an Orthodox Karelian as with an Orthodox Russian.

 

[Masked Grizzly]

Instead it was the opposite, as a significant number (over 20,000) of Karelians moved to the vicinity of Tver where they kept their language well into the 20th century.

Other Finno-Ugric groups aren't numerous or really relevant since an Orthodox Mordvin doesn't really share much in common with a Protestant Finn and shares as much in common with an Orthodox Karelian as with an Orthodox Russian.

Agreed.

Seems without the Great Famines the ATL Finnish population would have potentially gained an additional 1.39 million or so people by 1920 in ATL.

 

[DrakonFin]

We could try something like this: at the end of *WWI, the Russian Empire collapses even worse than IOTL. Either the Central Powers or the Entente nations intervene in northwestern Russia, practically occupying the areas along the Murmansk railway to support their preferred side in the civil war. At the same time, let's have Finland avoiding its OTL civil war through [handwave] and staying peaceful and with an in-control coalition government through this time. The foreign intervention powers then recognize Finland as a force for stability in the area, and thus when they at some time in the early 1920s decide to withdraw from NW Russia, they allow plebiscites to be organized in these areas, with options given to the locals by sub-provincial area (maybe a couple of parishes) to choose whether to join Russia or Finland.

If in this scenario Finland has actively promoted pan-Finnic nationalism and unity in these areas, we could then see those areas in Karelia that have a Karelian/Finnic majority join Finland through a popular vote, in a process safeguarded by the victorious powers of the *Great War. Practically, this would mean Finland gaining Karelian lands up to the Murmansk railway, and then lands east of the rail line voting to be parts of Russia due to their Russian majority. While Finland would not gain all of Eastern Karelia here, it would be significantly bigger than IOTL and could later at least justify its Karelian holdings by popular will and democracy. The Russians would of course think that the occupying powers were hostile towards Russia in turn, and favored Finland in the process that saw a lot of the Karelian lands be detached, along with Finland, from what ever Russia TTL would have after the 1920s.

This would account for most of Eastern Karelia. The Kola peninsula is more difficult, as its low population has for long been Russian rather than Finnic. We could of course tweak 19th century events to have Finnish/Karelian migration to Kola (increased Arctic Sea fishing, in the main, the only really sustainable trade up there at that time for any real numbers of people). Further on, we might have to butterfly the creation of the Murmansk railway, to keep the numbers of Russians lower up there. But that would of course preclude my previous plan, so it would have to be a part of a whole different scenario from the one I laid out above.

 

[Jürgen]

We could try something like this: at the end of *WWI, the Russian Empire collapses even worse than IOTL. Either the Central Powers or the Entente nations intervene in northwestern Russia, practically occupying the areas along the Murmansk railway to support their preferred side in the civil war. At the same time, let's have Finland avoiding its OTL civil war through [handwave] and staying peaceful and with an in-control coalition government through this time. The foreign intervention powers then recognize Finland as a force for stability in the area, and thus when they at some time in the early 1920s decide to withdraw from NW Russia, they allow plebiscites to be organized in these areas, with options given to the locals by sub-provincial area (maybe a couple of parishes) to choose whether to join Russia or Finland.

If in this scenario Finland has actively promoted pan-Finnic nationalism and unity in these areas, we could then see those areas in Karelia that have a Karelian/Finnic majority join Finland through a popular vote, in a process safeguarded by the victorious powers of the *Great War. Practically, this would mean Finland gaining Karelian lands up to the Murmansk railway, and then lands east of the rail line voting to be parts of Russia due to their Russian majority. While Finland would not gain all of Eastern Karelia here, it would be significantly bigger than IOTL and could later at least justify its Karelian holdings by popular will and democracy. The Russians would of course think that the occupying powers were hostile towards Russia in turn, and favored Finland in the process that saw a lot of the Karelian lands be detached, along with Finland, from what ever Russia TTL would have after the 1920s.

This would account for most of Eastern Karelia. The Kola peninsula is more difficult, as its low population has for long been Russian rather than Finnic. We could of course tweak 19th century events to have Finnish/Karelian migration to Kola (increased Arctic Sea fishing, in the main, the only really sustainable trade up there at that time for any real numbers of people). Further on, we might have to butterfly the creation of the Murmansk railway, to keep the numbers of Russians lower up there. But that would of course preclude my previous plan, so it would have to be a part of a whole different scenario from the one I laid out above.

A solution could be a stronger Norwegian presence in Kola and a Aaland Island like solution, where the Finns get it against it getting autonomy.

 

[Wendell]

A solution could be a stronger Norwegian presence in Kola and a Aaland Island like solution, where the Finns get it against it getting autonomy.

But if there is a stronger Norse element on the Kola Peninsula, why wouldn't they want to join Norway?

 

[Masked Grizzly]

We could try something like this: at the end of *WWI, the Russian Empire collapses even worse than IOTL. Either the Central Powers or the Entente nations intervene in northwestern Russia, practically occupying the areas along the Murmansk railway to support their preferred side in the civil war. At the same time, let's have Finland avoiding its OTL civil war through [handwave] and staying peaceful and with an in-control coalition government through this time. The foreign intervention powers then recognize Finland as a force for stability in the area, and thus when they at some time in the early 1920s decide to withdraw from NW Russia, they allow plebiscites to be organized in these areas, with options given to the locals by sub-provincial area (maybe a couple of parishes) to choose whether to join Russia or Finland.

If in this scenario Finland has actively promoted pan-Finnic nationalism and unity in these areas, we could then see those areas in Karelia that have a Karelian/Finnic majority join Finland through a popular vote, in a process safeguarded by the victorious powers of the *Great War. Practically, this would mean Finland gaining Karelian lands up to the Murmansk railway, and then lands east of the rail line voting to be parts of Russia due to their Russian majority. While Finland would not gain all of Eastern Karelia here, it would be significantly bigger than IOTL and could later at least justify its Karelian holdings by popular will and democracy. The Russians would of course think that the occupying powers were hostile towards Russia in turn, and favored Finland in the process that saw a lot of the Karelian lands be detached, along with Finland, from what ever Russia TTL would have after the 1920s.

This would account for most of Eastern Karelia. The Kola peninsula is more difficult, as its low population has for long been Russian rather than Finnic. We could of course tweak 19th century events to have Finnish/Karelian migration to Kola (increased Arctic Sea fishing, in the main, the only really sustainable trade up there at that time for any real numbers of people). Further on, we might have to butterfly the creation of the Murmansk railway, to keep the numbers of Russians lower up there. But that would of course preclude my previous plan, so it would have to be a part of a whole different scenario from the one I laid out above.

Thanks, that is something to work with.

Am assuming the southern part of East Karelia would remain Russian in the above scenario, it is just a matter of finding a way to get the Kola Peninsula to become part of Finland.

 

[Jürgen]

But if there is a stronger Norse element on the Kola Peninsula, why wouldn't they want to join Norway?

Aaland wanted to join Sweden but Finland wanted to keep it. International arbitration ended with Finland keeping it and Aaland being given autonomy and had Swedish as sole official language.