7 Years war POD: British Dominion of Japan

[Prussian Militarism]

With a POD during/after the 7 years war, would it be at all possible for Britain to control this territory?

 

[kasumigenx]

Have Britain gain Luzon in the 7 years war.

 

[Kaze]

William Jardine lands in Dejima, Japan instead of Canton.

William Jardine imports massive amounts of opium. Shogun destroys opium. Opium War.

Results:

Loss of 2 Japanese Islands = Becoming Japanese version of IRL's Hong Kong.
Probable overthrow of the Shogunate

China gets very, very nervous - pulls a Meiji instead?

 

[Soonhun]

Britain would, at some point, have to go to war with China, in order to force Joseon out of China's sphere. Or invade Joseon, causing a war with China.

 

[Prussian Militarism]

Have Britain gain Luzon in the 7 years war.

How about if Britain lost the 7 years war?

 

[kasumigenx]

How about if Britain lost the 7 years war?

If the British gain Luzon instead of parts of the French and the Spanish American colonies, it would be a loss in the long term .

 

[Prussian Militarism]

William Jardine lands in Dejima, Japan instead of Canton.

William Jardine imports massive amounts of opium. Shogun destroys opium. Opium War.

Results:

Loss of 2 Japanese Islands = Becoming Japanese version of IRL's Hong Kong.
Probable overthrow of the Shogunate

China gets very, very nervous - pulls a Meiji instead?

In that case, would Hokkaido be open for conquest by Russia somewhere down the line...?

 

[Kaze]

In that case, would Hokkaido be open for conquest by Russia somewhere down the line...?

I could see it happen - where only the Main Island is pure Japanese - the Northern and Southern Islands being lost to Imperialist powers.

 

[alexmilman]

In that case, would Hokkaido be open for conquest by Russia somewhere down the line...?

Very unlikely, at least within a framework reasonably close to the OTL. Russian appearance in the relevant area is 1860 (Beijing Treaty and foundation of Vladivostok) and until the end of the XIX Ussurisk Krai was almost empty: by 1899 Russian population of the region was only slightly above 50K with the Ussury Cossacks amounting to approximately 11K. A noticeable increase of the population (by 20K+) was only between 1899 and 1901.
Even with the OTL military and naval buildup that happened in the early XX there were not enough potential settlers for Hokkaido, not enough ships to carry significant number of troops from the mainland, no adequate transportation (the last segment of the TransSib was completed only in 1914), no industrial infrastructure anywhere in the area and, if the Port Arthur folly is not avoided, Russian navy would be almost useless for supporting such an adventure being located in a wrong place.
Then the obvious question is why bother if even populating of a Southern Sakhalin was impossible? It is not like the Russian Empire suffered from a shortage of land.

 

[Prussian Militarism]

Very unlikely, at least within a framework reasonably close to the OTL. Russian appearance in the relevant area is 1860 (Beijing Treaty and foundation of Vladivostok) and until the end of the XIX Ussurisk Krai was almost empty: by 1899 Russian population of the region was only slightly above 50K with the Ussury Cossacks amounting to approximately 11K. A noticeable increase of the population (by 20K+) was only between 1899 and 1901.
Even with the OTL military and naval buildup that happened in the early XX there were not enough potential settlers for Hokkaido, not enough ships to carry significant number of troops from the mainland, no adequate transportation (the last segment of the TransSib was completed only in 1914), no industrial infrastructure anywhere in the area and, if the Port Arthur folly is not avoided, Russian navy would be almost useless for supporting such an adventure being located in a wrong place.
Then the obvious question is why bother if even populating of a Southern Sakhalin was impossible? It is not like the Russian Empire suffered from a shortage of land.

You just blew my mind with that, thanks!