I've been mulling a timeline for an Italian breakthrough at the sixth battle of Izonzo (according to MacMillan at least, if Cadorna et al had pressed they might have reached as far as Ljubjana, rather than stopping at Gorizia) and the broader impact of the war given a plausible Austrian implosion in the end of that year.
The situation is rather complicated- Turkey still holds most of her territory, Bulgaria and Germany are still strong and in the field, and Russia is already teetering on the brink of revolution, while the US is solidly neutral and Romania about to be steamrolled. Put simply what's to stop the Italians from taking their gains and walking away if the Entente dont make a damned good counter offer? AFAIK they didnt partake in the pledge not to make a separate peace. And I'm skeptical that the Entente would be willing to offer any gains juicy enough to keep Italy in the war if their determined to leave, given that they resisted giving the scraps promised OTL. If Germany sued for an armistice (as they might if Austria is seemingly about to collapse) they are unlikely to give up territory first, notwithstanding the Entente demands for suxh german morale and material are still mostly intact, and (from their perspective) the occupied territories are the only thing stopping a vengeful Franco Russian alliance from carving up Germany proper.
So-
The Entente can try to demand Turkish territory, and offer this to keep russia in the war, but they dont have any ability to make that happen. Both Britain and Italy may well be having second thoughts about the war, given the probable demands made by Russia in the Balkans and Levant, to say nothing of floated partitions of Germany (and for that matter Austria-thr Italians were naively hoping to keep a eump Austrian empie intact to limit Sebian and Russian pan slavic ambitions, and Emperor Karl was relatively pro wntente/pro italy due to his wife and liberal sensibilities) erself who both nations would probably want to keep reasonably intact. The trick is if an armistice happens... that's probably it, and the battle lines stay where they are while the horse trading begins. What is the most probable outcome here assuming a negotiated settlement? Italian separate peace and eventual turncloaking when Russia collapses the following year? Russia and Germany throwing their respective allies under the bus to save their own empires? Status Quo ante for the Turks, and anschluss in return for Alsace Lorraine and the German colonies? Or maybe germany surrenders alsace in return for say Morocco or the Congo or something (not likely since Britain holds most of the cards here).
The situation is rather complicated- Turkey still holds most of her territory, Bulgaria and Germany are still strong and in the field, and Russia is already teetering on the brink of revolution, while the US is solidly neutral and Romania about to be steamrolled. Put simply what's to stop the Italians from taking their gains and walking away if the Entente dont make a damned good counter offer? AFAIK they didnt partake in the pledge not to make a separate peace. And I'm skeptical that the Entente would be willing to offer any gains juicy enough to keep Italy in the war if their determined to leave, given that they resisted giving the scraps promised OTL. If Germany sued for an armistice (as they might if Austria is seemingly about to collapse) they are unlikely to give up territory first, notwithstanding the Entente demands for suxh german morale and material are still mostly intact, and (from their perspective) the occupied territories are the only thing stopping a vengeful Franco Russian alliance from carving up Germany proper.
So-
The Entente can try to demand Turkish territory, and offer this to keep russia in the war, but they dont have any ability to make that happen. Both Britain and Italy may well be having second thoughts about the war, given the probable demands made by Russia in the Balkans and Levant, to say nothing of floated partitions of Germany (and for that matter Austria-thr Italians were naively hoping to keep a eump Austrian empie intact to limit Sebian and Russian pan slavic ambitions, and Emperor Karl was relatively pro wntente/pro italy due to his wife and liberal sensibilities) erself who both nations would probably want to keep reasonably intact. The trick is if an armistice happens... that's probably it, and the battle lines stay where they are while the horse trading begins. What is the most probable outcome here assuming a negotiated settlement? Italian separate peace and eventual turncloaking when Russia collapses the following year? Russia and Germany throwing their respective allies under the bus to save their own empires? Status Quo ante for the Turks, and anschluss in return for Alsace Lorraine and the German colonies? Or maybe germany surrenders alsace in return for say Morocco or the Congo or something (not likely since Britain holds most of the cards here).
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