Austrian collapse in 1916, armistice and in what terms?

[The Undead Martyr]

Why/how would the Hungarians bolt?

The augsleich and prospect of losing Dalmatia.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

The augsleich and prospect of losing Dalmatia.

Do what? The Ausgleich bound them to Austria and how does becoming a weak, friendless nation surrounded by enemies stop them losing Dalmatia?

 

[The Undead Martyr]

Do what? The Ausgleich bound them to Austria and how does becoming a weak, friendless nation surrounded by enemies stop them losing Dalmatia?

It doesn't, really, which is part of why my initial thoughts were a negotiated settlement between Austria and Italy and I'm still sort of considering both scenarios at once.

So-
assuming Italy achieves a breakthrough, occupying the Austrian riviera up to Ljubjana:
1) what sort of terms will it demand from the Entente for helping continue the war (declaring war on Germany, joining the pledge against a separate peace, putting twenty or so division in France or Syria, etc)
2) what sort of terms would the Entente offer Italy to induce the above?
3) what sort of terms would Austria (and Germany by extension) offer to get Italy to drop out of the war?

for one, Italy has potential claims on the Levant due to the dynastic concerns, envy of France, and wanting a source of oil for the navy. The Italians were hesitant to partition Austria entirely, due to fearing a pan-Serbian Yugoslavia- any extension of claims in the Balkans would have to be in the context of limiting Russian and French interests there, so for instance demanding all of Dalmatia and a protectorate over rump Croatian, Hungarian, and/or Austrian states (basically imagine borders along the lines of the WWII partition, but with an Austro-Bohemian union in place of Greater Germany). Montenegro is tied to Italy by the royal dynasty and again Italy has a demonstrated interest (see- Albanian crisis, and the Italo-Austrian intervention to keep Serbia away from the Adriatic) in keeping Serbia off the Adriatic coast.
Both of these claims and interests directly conflict with the Triple Entente, specifically France and Russia- Britain might come around to a deal with Italy precisely to limit Russian influence in the Balkans. Maybe the French are induced to drop their claims to Syria, and a "greater Syrian" state emerges under loose Italian and British influence? Mosul was given to France by Sevres, and could potentially remain with such a state, or made into a Kurdish state.
2) again ties to the above- the Entente would presumably wave off Croatia and Austria proper, certainly Albania and Montenegro, possibly somaliland- but that IMHO just doesn't justify continued Italian involvement in the war, given their aforementioned fears of Franco-Russian ambitions in the region. The DEI strike me as a possible way to cut the Gordian knot, assuming France digs in her heels over Syria. IIRC Curacao had oil discovered at this time- that and the prospect of a "global" empire would presumably sate Italian imperialism.

3) Austria would have to offer at minimum everything promised under the London Treaty to get Italy to consider accepting an armistice. This would only work under certain circumstances- Romania collapsing, the Entente offensives petering out. Italy won't leave unless the Entente war effort drags on long enough to seem like a bad bet, or they get everything they want from Austria and the regime decides it fears Russo-French imperialism more than British displeasure. An Austrian collapse could trigger a temporary armistice; if Russia is streaming across the Carpathians and demanding a "Greater Serbia" that would probably scare Soninno et al into coming to terms with the Germans in order to consolidate their gains, and I suspect the Germans would be happy to eliminate the Italian front with the Russians bearing down on them with full force.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Montenegro is tied to Italy by the royal dynasty

Tied is overstating it a bit. In WWI Montenegro was led by King Nicholas I and it was his fifth born daughter that married Victor Emmanuel. Nicholas had three sons so they would follow him to the throne. There is no reasonable way for Victor Emmanuel to gain the throne of Montenegro short of conquest

 

[Merrick]

So-
assuming Italy achieves a breakthrough, occupying the Austrian riviera up to Ljubjana:
1) what sort of terms will it demand from the Entente for helping continue the war (declaring war on Germany, joining the pledge against a separate peace, putting twenty or so division in France or Syria, etc)
2) what sort of terms would the Entente offer Italy to induce the above?
3) what sort of terms would Austria (and Germany by extension) offer to get Italy to drop out of the war?

The problem with this scenario is that:
- If Austria keeps fighting, Italy has no option but to continue the war and the Entente doesn't have to offer anything
- If Austria falls apart completely, the Entente doesn't need to offer the Italians anything - they can beat Germany without further Italian help. Sure, some Italian divisions on the Western Front would be nice, but Germany will have to send troops into Austria whether the Italians are fighting them there or not and half the soldiers facing Russia will be gone.
- So we're left with the scenario where Austria offers massive territorial concessions to buy Italy out of the war, somehow doesn't collapse in the aftermath and keeps fighting the Entente. The trouble here is that if the Austrians think they can beat the Russians and Romanians they're not likely to make much of a offer to Italy (or if they do it will be a straight sucker play, planning to take the land back once the Entente have been dealt with), while if the don't think they can hold the line in the East, well, see "total collapse" above. Plus the negotiations will have to be very swift and very secret (if the Entente get wind of them, they can always offer the Italians more of Austria-Hungary than the Austrians will).

I can see the Italians publicly flirting with a separate peace (as Japan did) in the hope of squeezing some more concessions out of the Entente. In an Austria-collapse scenario, I can see them coming to a quiet understanding with Germany, in which the Italian troops in the Tyrol don't advance beyond Italy's pre-war claim lines and allow the Germans to occupy the rest of German-speaking Austria in return for no attempts to move south of Klagenfurt. But I cannot see them formally coming to a separate peace when the outcome of the main war is still in doubt. If the Central Powers win, the Italians (who flat-out backstabbed Austria in 1915) are trusting their future to a German promise. If the Central Powers look certain to lose, there's no motivation to defect - better to stay in the war, fight as little as possible while securing the gains and sit at the peace table as one of the victors.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

So thinking about this a bit more-
Austria collapsing is sort of the million dollar question but ) lets go with it along the lines I put- Italian forces reach Llubjana, Franz Josef dies, rumors of a separate peace lead one group (probably the Czechs or Croatians) to declare independence, and the avalanche starts. Let's say Savoy forces are the ones to "liberate" Serbia. is Russia going to allow the Italians to steal away the south slavs? The borders are where the armies rest, and Cadorna is much closer to Belgrade than Brusilov.

if Britain goes full Perfidious Albion I could see them "betraying" France and Russia at the peace conference- supporting German annexation of Austria and limiting losses to Alsace and East Prussia, and backing the Arabs, the Greeks and the Italians against the Russians and the French. A dominant Franco Russian alliance (especially the latter) is simply not in their interests. Austrias collapse is a major problem for just about everyone. Of course the Italians could very well decide to prop up a rump Austria, in order to keep the Russians out... maybe a south German state is formed?

My other somewhat more outlandish thought was that Russia just might get into a shooting war with the Italians over the Balkans, specifically Serbia. In which case all bets are off.

of course there's the Salonika front to consider- would Romania let Russian troops through to attack bulgaria and then turkey? Everyone is going to be pressing their territorial ambitions in the region and Russia has sound strategic and political reasons to focus on Constantinople.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

OK so I decided against the somewhat outlandish idea of Russia declaring war over Serbia and montenegro (could do a separate timemine in a timeline a la fuhrerreich). Seemed a bit much, even for me.

Still-

Imperial Russia is going to be terrifyingly strong for Britain. They're getting Armenia, Constantinople, Poland, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, east prussia- hell maybe even Silesia to a Bohemian or polish puppet state.... and unlike OTL theres no United States to back them up, since the Americans probably take an isolationist turn even if they get dragged in to this war.
Basically we've got a proto cold war with Tsarist Russia and France vs Britain and Italy, with Germany (probably communist? Or a very unstable Republic) and Japan on the British side as well and the US sulking in its corner. Basically the internal era remains multipolar and thus... possibly less stable. Less wilsonian idealism or bolshevik radicalism, more old world realpolitik, for better or for worse.

The million dollar question is- if the Anglo Jalanrse alliance holds out of mutual fear of Russia and Britain props up the Italians and Germans to prevent Russian hegemony, what does the US do? What does a surviving imperial Russia look like (I'm assuming it goes fascist) relative to the OTL USSR? presumably theyre stronger, but then again the regime does not inspire confidence. While there still be a holdover? Does the Russian navy become a major power with access to the mediterranean?

The Washington naval treaty is probably dead, though maybe not. Assuming it somehow works with more powers- where do Russia and Germany fall? Russia probably demands at least equality with the Japanese, and Germany maybe gets equality with France and Italy.

 

[Admiral Spaun]

Imperial Russia is going to be terrifyingly strong for Britain. They're getting Armenia, Constantinople, Poland, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, east prussia- hell maybe even Silesia to a Bohemian or polish puppet state.

No way would Britain ( or France ) allow Russia to take that much territory. Russia controlling that amount territory would make it the undisputed hegemon of Europe, imagine OTL 1945 Soviet Union level of power.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

No way would Britain ( or France ) allow Russia to take that much territory. Russia controlling that amount territory would make it the undisputed hegemon of Europe, imagine OTL 1945 Soviet Union level of power.

I mean this was sort of the inevitable outcome of a German collapse in WWI.

They already promised Constantinople to Russia, and armenia too. East prussia and galicia were explicit war aims and woild the the bare minimum of what they are awarded.

The Czechs are sort of iffy, and I'm less certain about polands borders. Some sort of polish state would be created in all likelihood.

For the Balkans I'm thinking borders along the OTL WWII partition, with an Italain puppet state in Croatia, and Austria propped up again with wwii partition borders in Slovenia.

 

[Admiral Spaun]

They already promised Constantinople to Russia, and armenia too. East prussia and galicia were explicit war aims and woild the the bare minimum of what they are awarded.

The promises of great powers aren't worth the paper they're written on, just ask Italy or the Arabs or Armenia etc. Just because a nation wants something doesn't mean they're going to get it. France originally proposed a border on the Rhine after all. Constantinople is too strategic for the British to hand over to the Russians so expect Britain to backstab their ally in favor of keeping Constantinople under a weaker power. East Prussia wouldn't be worth the effort to subdue especially considering Russia had more than enough instability on its own.

The Czechs are sort of iffy, and I'm less certain about polands borders. Some sort of polish state would be created in all likelihood.

The Czechs had no desire to be under the heel of a new despot and the Entente wouldn't want Bohemian industry under Russian control. I doubt Russia would allow any sort of independent Polish state. Remember IOTL the Whites were extremely reluctant to recognize Polish independence, even as they were fighting a civil war.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

The promises of great powers aren't worth the paper they're written on, just ask Italy or the Arabs or Armenia etc. Just because a nation wants something doesn't mean they're going to get it. France originally proposed a border on the Rhine after all. Constantinople is too strategic for the British to hand over to the Russians so expect Britain to backstab their ally in favor of keeping Constantinople under a weaker power. East Prussia wouldn't be worth the effort to subdue especially considering Russia had more than enough instability on its own.

The Czechs had no desire to be under the heel of a new despot and the Entente wouldn't want Bohemian industry under Russian control. I doubt Russia would allow any sort of independent Polish state. Remember IOTL the Whites were extremely reluctant to recognize Polish independence, even as they were fighting a civil war.

Italy got most of what she was promised in the Treaty of London regardless, and the Arabs were "non civilized" and in any case not a great power. The Italians themselves attempted to claim territories beyond this. More to the point Russia is significantly stronger than Italy and in a position to make good on her claims to the Straits- Russia is very likely to "intervene" in Turkey or make an offensive in the Balkans towards the Straits.

East Prussia may or may not be too much trouble but Galicia is going to be annexed into "Greater Russia" at the absolute minimum.

 

[lukedalton]

Russia is still on a bad shape at the end of the war and it will be unstable for a while due to the social and economic consequences of the war, not even considering the necessity to absorb the war gain; so while potentially scaring need to rebuild and this will take time. Constantinople will become a very sore point in the russian-british relations as London don't want to give it to Russia, but if they occupy before everyone else it will be hard to convince them to let her go, maybe if she convince France and Italy to join her in pressure Russia enough some agreement of international control of the place will be put in place but expect that this will cause a lot of problem in the future
Poland will mean trouble, the population will want finally an independent state but what Petrograd will concede will be simple more local autonomy and taking in consideration the historically precedent, russian promise to respect that autonomy will be considered a joke if even decide to mantain the promise.

Italy win big, basically obtain all what promised by the London Treaty and probably annex also Fiume and a couple of more island, lot of political capital due to her being vital in breaking A-H and no Wilson and his points mean that she can obtain that, especially if she occupy it before the serbians...that at the moment are still in the rebuilding phase after the Great Retreat. Said that Jugoslavia will be probably happen, too much people were in love of the idea and many in the other european capital will think that's a good counteract for Italy

The real big question is Germany, even if she surrender is still in a good enough shape that can make any entente victory extremely costly even if the endgame will never be in doubt, probably get a better treaty than OTL one (even because the British will want some counteract for France and Russia)

 

[SwampTiger]

I can't see Russia wading through Romania, they aren't going to take the high road through the Carpathians, Bulgaria and European Ottoman territory before the Greeks take action, with the support of Britain and France, to control Constantinople. The German and Caucasian Fronts will take a large number of troops. Russia has minimal amphibious capacity to ensure a successful landing on the European coast near the city. Thus, no Macedonian Front, but a Thracian Front. I would expect the Italians to continue pushing north through Ljubljana pressing AH forces until met by a strong defensive line. Would the Italians make an attempt upon Kotor and/or the Albania coast?

 

[The Undead Martyr]

I was of two minds as to Germany- if they do the smart thing (the really smart thing would be to throw themselves at London's mercy, sign away A-L in return for keeping Austria and Bohemia, but the government wouldn't survive) and adopt a Fabian strategy, I think that they could eek out a status quo peace in the same way that Old Fritz did- holding on until the coalition falls apart. More likely they go all in on France and the government collapses into revolution when the offensive stalls and the US joins due to USW. This would get very messy very quickly as Russia (among others) scramble to snap up as much as they can. I can absolutely see the Tsar intervening in Germany (or trying to) to "restore order" if the Kaiser gets overthrown, especially by communists (as I'm considering).

Russia won't pass on Constantinople and frankly there's not a whole lot Britain can do to stop them once Austria and then Germany collapse, nor do I see them letting it go under any circumstances once they've got it, even if it burns all their bridges with the Entente. After Austria's implosion the Russians transfer some of their forces south, knocks out Bulgaria and take Constantinople and Armenia. Italy in the meantime is going to have very serious standoff with the Serbs- they will make a play for Albania (and almost certainly take it) along with Dalmatia, Istria and the South Tirol, and probably end up at war with whatever provisional Croatian state emerges from the wreckage... IIRC the king's father in law, Nicholas of Montenegro, has an exile government in Rome at this time, so especially if the Yugoslavs try to spark a civil war (like they did OTL) then Italy probably "liberates" Montenegro as well. Yugoslavia if it happens at all is going to be on Rome's terms, at the very least there won't be Montenegro in the union unless the Montenegrin dynasty is in charge (since VEII doesn't want to sleep on the couch by dispossessing his inlaws) and I have trouble seeing them let Slovenia or Croatia go into the Russian sphere either, at least not without serious concessions from the Entente (on the order of Tunisia for example).

But then what stops Italian forces from marching on/"liberating" Belgrade, and once they're there, if Nicholas decides to make a play for the Serbian throne with Italian backing... that could get very ugly very quickly. Possibly even start a war with the Russians (this was a sort of outlandish thought which I can't quite get rid of). Still- in that context, I think that the British change course and throw their weight behind the Italians and the Arabs- as part of the deal I intend for Italy to get all of the Dutch colonies (Italy wants oil and a place in the sun, and Britain is annoyed at the pro German attitudes by the Dutch, and wants to limit their potential influence overseas), plus the nod for a protectorate over Ethiopia and a few other concessions (Kamerun, Jubaland, maybe British Somaliland or Tangiers). France gets Lebanon and Britain gets Palestine, the rest of "Syria" turns into Hashemite Arabia as a British buffer state.

The entire situation is obviously analogous to post WWII Balkans- or for that matter interwar Eastern Europe. The borders are set by the armies, not by the peace treaty as such. Belgrade is much closer to Rome than St Petersburg.

 

[lukedalton]

But then what stops Italian forces from marching on/"liberating" Belgrade, and once they're there, if Nicholas decides to make a play for the Serbian throne with Italian backing... that could get very ugly very quickly.

Probably logistic with the addition of having to consider an hostile population both in Croatia and in Serbia, plus Italy attempting to try kingmaker with Nicholas in such blatant way will not sit well with the rest of the entente; all that while there is still Germany in the war and italian troops will be needed to at least form a front neat the Bavarian border.
Keeping Montenegro independent is doable both diplomatically and military, all you need is to be quick enough and regarding a war, difficult as one is just finished and both nation are not really in the mood or in the condition to start another in this moment, unless they desire start a revolution

 

[Welshroyalhistory]

I've often wondered whether collapse of the Empire and abolition of the monarchy would have been avoided had Franz Josef lived a couple more years - would there have been greater reluctance to bring the dynasty down if the old man was still alive?

 

[The Undead Martyr]

Probably logistic with the addition of having to consider an hostile population both in Croatia and in Serbia, plus Italy attempting to try kingmaker with Nicholas in such blatant way will not sit well with the rest of the entente; all that while there is still Germany in the war and italian troops will be needed to at least form a front neat the Bavarian border.
Keeping Montenegro independent is doable both diplomatically and military, all you need is to be quick enough and regarding a war, difficult as one is just finished and both nation are not really in the mood or in the condition to start another in this moment, unless they desire start a revolution

Indeed, but Austria's collapse is going to send everyone scrambling madly much as OTL. If Greece joins (for instance) the Russians are going to panic and (probably correctly) suspect that they need to rush Constantinople ASAP before the Greeks can rob their prize.

I've often wondered whether collapse of the Empire and abolition of the monarchy would have been avoided had Franz Josef lived a couple more years - would there have been greater reluctance to bring the dynasty down if the old man was still alive?

Its not impossible. Austrias collapse wasn't terminal before the war.
The bigger problem was the military leadership. Bear in mind that Cadorna was arguably winning against them before the germans showed up. If someone like Diaz had been in charge from the beginning Austria woild have lost Trieste by 1916 at the latest.

 

[lukedalton]

Indeed, but Austria's collapse is going to send everyone scrambling madly much as OTL. If Greece joins (for instance) the Russians are going to panic and (probably correctly) suspect that they need to rush Constantinople ASAP before the Greeks can rob their prize.

Greece know that for doing that need the support of the other big guys, otherwise they will politely thanked for having taken the city, given the heroes treatment and nicely asked to leave it to the russian occupation force ASAP

 

[The Undead Martyr]

Greece know that for doing that need the support of the other big guys, otherwise they will politely thanked for having taken the city, given the heroes treatment and nicely asked to leave it to the russian occupation force ASAP

Thats the rub, though. Will Britqin stick to their guns nd let russia take the xity?

Greece would probably jump the ottomans if the Balkans are getting swept up by the entente.

 

[lukedalton]

Thats the rub, though. Will Britqin stick to their guns nd let russia take the xity?

Greece would probably jump the ottomans if the Balkans are getting swept up by the entente.

They will at least try, maybe trying to give them compensation in other place, or obtaining an internationalization of the city (as envisioned in the og Sevres Treaty) due to not supporting the Polish nationalist