Deleted member 94680
So, in an ATL where Britain stays out of WWI (German respect of Belgium, better pre-war relations with Germany, an earlier Irish imbroglio, etc), what chance is there that London would still try something in the Ottoman Empire?
I would assume a July Crisis that sees Britain “Happily...” nothing “more than spectators” would allow the dreadnoughts to be completed and sent to Constantinople. But I am of the opinion that the confiscation of Sultan Osman I and Reşadiye was not the decisive factor in the Pasha’s decision to join the Central Powers that it was once assumed to be. Does this mean that the Ottomans still go to War as OTL and as such, find themselves in crisis by 1915? How does the delivery of two dreadnoughts to the Sublime Porte affect Greece? Do they immediately join the Entente?
Britain had had interests in the Ottoman sphere for many, many years. Kuwait, the Trucial States, Oman and Bahrain were all under British protection or control by 1914. Oil was already a strategic concern for the British, Churchill having established the government’s controlling share in APOC in 1913 and the Royal Navy was increasingly dependent on oil. The Turkish Petroleum Company had been established in 1912, owing to the belief there was oil in Mesopotamia and APOC had a controlling share in the TPC.
So, with the Arabs under the Hashemites already in contact in one form or another with London, British India “unused” with it’s large reserves of manpower, a belief oil is available and the Turks in trouble by 1915, what likelihood that London tries something along the lines of the Fao Landings OTL?
Would this drag Britain into WWI anyway?
Would the Ottomans cede their Arab territories to keep fighting the Russians (and Greeks?) with no Gallipoli Campaign likely?
Or does Britain sit the whole show out and wait for the post-War world to coalesce before using her untapped power and influence to take what she wants later?
I would assume a July Crisis that sees Britain “Happily...” nothing “more than spectators” would allow the dreadnoughts to be completed and sent to Constantinople. But I am of the opinion that the confiscation of Sultan Osman I and Reşadiye was not the decisive factor in the Pasha’s decision to join the Central Powers that it was once assumed to be. Does this mean that the Ottomans still go to War as OTL and as such, find themselves in crisis by 1915? How does the delivery of two dreadnoughts to the Sublime Porte affect Greece? Do they immediately join the Entente?
Britain had had interests in the Ottoman sphere for many, many years. Kuwait, the Trucial States, Oman and Bahrain were all under British protection or control by 1914. Oil was already a strategic concern for the British, Churchill having established the government’s controlling share in APOC in 1913 and the Royal Navy was increasingly dependent on oil. The Turkish Petroleum Company had been established in 1912, owing to the belief there was oil in Mesopotamia and APOC had a controlling share in the TPC.
So, with the Arabs under the Hashemites already in contact in one form or another with London, British India “unused” with it’s large reserves of manpower, a belief oil is available and the Turks in trouble by 1915, what likelihood that London tries something along the lines of the Fao Landings OTL?
Would this drag Britain into WWI anyway?
Would the Ottomans cede their Arab territories to keep fighting the Russians (and Greeks?) with no Gallipoli Campaign likely?
Or does Britain sit the whole show out and wait for the post-War world to coalesce before using her untapped power and influence to take what she wants later?