No your point is that you keep shifting your point rather than admitting your point is not nearly so solid as you would like.
No, I've kept a pretty consistent line on my points on this matter. Here's me on page six:
The UK has 22 modern battleships. Presuming all Battleships are diverted to British waters in 1914 and thereafter the plan is to hit the Americans as you suggest below, just to achieve a 1:1 parity with the USN would leave them with 12 Battleships to Germany's 15. In other words, extremely vulnerable to the HSF.
You're welcome to cite where I've deviated from this line.
So Germany by your own contention is now under blockade, we know Germany can endure blockade a while but this is not conducive to a quick win.
I've never said anything to the contrary. My entire point is that the Entente can be strong (parity or better) in two of the following: the Americas, the North Sea, and the Med. America has 10 BBs, so Britain is going to want to send at a minimum more than the Americans have because otherwise risks disaster. The problem with that is, to do that, they have to dangerously expose the North Sea in order to that. In all actuality I expect the Royal Navy to concede the Americas in favor of protecting the British isles and keeping the Med open.
As for the matter at hand, I've maintained the line that Entente can be strong (parity or better) in two of the following: The Americas, the North Sea or the Med. The Royal Navy has 22 BB and 9 BCs to deploy where it sees fit, for a grand total of 31 major warships. The Americans have 10 and the Germans 19, for a total of 29 at a slight disadvantage in the aggregate. Now, the British could deploy 15 to the Americas and leave 16 for the North Sea but that leaves them exposed to the HSF which outnumbers them by three. They could have the French transfer their four BBs to the North Sea in order to restore parity, but that grants the Med to the Austro-Hungarians with their three BBs.
The US itself may not be under formal blockade but it will be subject to the travails of commerce warfare and while there are several pinch points that come to mind such as copper and even some grades of iron ore (yes the US was a net iron exporter but note that net has a meaning and it did require some imports of that material) the most important pinch point is probably nitrates which have to come a long way from Chile and Chile is well within the sphere of Britain's informal empire in South America at this time not to mention all those Royal Navy cruisers. Between banks and cruisers the Americans will find themselves short of the key ingredient for making munitions.
Munitions aren't an issue for the U.S. sans in terms of field artillery and all the research I can find suggests the Haber Process was already being adopted by 1914 in the U.S.
So once again Germany has 15 Battleships and 4 battlecruisers in the North Sea they do not want to risk save for a sure thing or perhaps it sits as a fleet in being hoping France will fall. Which likely does not happen as the iron laws of logistics snap tight before Paris rather than after its encirclement. Indeed when the Germans do sally forth the RN can afford to sit back as the Germans must penetrate into UK or near UK waters to achieve anything without battle.
I've been operating under the assumption everything in the Western Front stays the same, unless of course the Canadian situation diverts forces from the BEF. If we want to apply butterflies, it's entirely possible for the Germans take Paris in August/September. Ignoring that, the German fleet staying in port is my exact point; they're a fleet in being and tie down British forces because London cannot take the chance the Germans will sortie after the Grand Fleet is weakened for duty in North America. Further, the British can't avoid because otherwise the Blockade is broken.
Now the long war should go in the Trans-Atlantic Alliance's (the CP of ITTL) favour but the British can field the oil QEs at least for a while and the coal fired Rs indefinitely
once they have them. Geography at least to an extent favours the RN who are fighting on the naval equivalent of interior lines. Geology not so much as the RN will find much oil cut off from them (Texan oil because of being on the wrong side, Russian oil might also if the Ottomans jump in of the German side, in time Venezuelan oil might be interdicted leaving Persian oil which can be defended but it a long way away) still that will not happen overnight.
There are no alternatives to U.S. oil because America produces two thirds of global supply and most of the rest is in Mexico and Baku. IOTL they did attempt to develop the Persian sources but the U.S. was still supplying 80% of their needs. In short, the Anglo-French are out of oil in a matter of weeks.