AHC: Central Powers USA

Do you think the Entente could still win the War ?

  • They could ! (For Historical Determinists)

    Votes: 19 6.7%
  • Maybe ? It would be hard by they still got a shot

    Votes: 79 27.8%
  • No, they were already almost collapsing irl before the USA joined and would stand no chance

    Votes: 186 65.5%

  • Total voters
    284

Lusitania

Donor
Wether the war is in North America, Europe or Atlantic there will be no fast victory. It will be a bloody war just iOTL. That it ends in 1916 instead of 1918 that is not disputed but it is ironic that simply the arrival of the uS will suddenly cause the war to end in few months. It do not happen in WW1 and in WW2. It will take time for forces to build up and for Armys and navies to develop new strategies for WW1 war
 
I am sorry but Canadians are not cowards. That was in reference to do they do not fight..
Did anyone state, or even imply, this?

Also I keep wondering what US army is going to defeat Canada in 1914.
They don't need to "defeat" Canada. They merely need to sever the trans-continental rails links, hold out for winter to prevent large scale operations and prepare for 1915.

CanAdians are proud people and they defeated the US in 1812 and if the US invades in 1914 with same attitude they will ship them home in pine boxes.
Sigh. 1914 is not 1812. Technology has changed as have demographics. And there will be very little British assistance for Canad in 1914.

Have real discussions about realistic capabilities. It seems too many posters are rambling on without taking time to actually read many other posters who took time to properly analyze situation as it stood in 1914
Indeed.
 
Any war in North America will follow European war. Trench warfare and Canadians be on defensive. So be prepared for wW1 war not the war of 19th century.
Now it wouldn't. The numbers simply aren't there, especially for the Canadians. It would be far more comparable to the Eastern Front, with it's wide open spaces and snow.
 
Why would Canada be the only country in the world to "see sense" and give up before it was totally unable to continue any sort of fighting?
Canadians are smarter?
But they could easily continue to fight. However ITTL the war in Europe should be over early in 1915 (at the latest).
 
Can we get a list of potential pod? The discussion really needs a focal point, and we need to know exactly how an Isolationist USA finds itself in the Central Powers.
I'm very dubious about a single PoD. It would have to be a series of events.
1. 1895
The Venezuela Crisis is far worse when Salisbury's cabinet fails to convince him to go to arbitration and he confronts the US but is forced to back down.
The Landsdowne led move to rapprochement with the US is stillborn.

2. 1898 on
The Yukon gold rush is the next flashpoint. This time arbitration is accepted but the panel is deadlocked. Meanwhile there are continual clashes between US and Canadian citizens and police, some violent.
Anti-American feelings risk in both Canada and the UK.

3. 1898
During the Spanish–American Britain is concerns about teh potential US acquisition of Cuba, and hence a threat to her Caribbean holdings. The US refuses to allay British fears and tensions rise once again. The UK supports Spain, but not t a great degree.

4. 1899
The US openly supports the Boers during the Second Boer war, though the actual effects are limited.

5. 1902
The US acts to break the combined European blockade of Venezuela and forces the powers to back down.
The US begins intense naval construction.

6. 1913
The US government is quietly supportive of the IVF, allowing weapons to be purchased in America to arm the Volunteers and arranging for US veterans to assist the nascent force.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Did anyone state, or even imply, this?


They don't need to "defeat" Canada. They merely need to sever the trans-continental rails links, hold out for winter to prevent large scale operations and prepare for 1915.


Sigh. 1914 is not 1812. Technology has changed as have demographics. And there will be very little British assistance for Canad in 1914.


Indeed.

Yes they did they claimed simply having the uS with its mightt against them they ditch Britain and ask for terms. Bullshit they fight to end.

Capturing Winnipeg which they will try but will cost thousands of lives on both sides will not make the rest of Canada ask for terms they keep fighting the yankee invaders. Yankee become synonymous with Huns which were said with same spite.

The technology was not what was implied but the ignorant attitudes and incompetence that got US forces kicked out of Canada.
 

Lusitania

Donor
I'm very dubious about a single PoD. It would have to be a series of events.
1. 1895
The Venezuela Crisis is far worse when Salisbury's cabinet fails to convince him to go to arbitration and he confronts the US but is forced to back down.
The Landsdowne led move to rapprochement with the US is stillborn.

2. 1898 on
The Yukon gold rush is the next flashpoint. This time arbitration is accepted but the panel is deadlocked. Meanwhile there are continual clashes between US and Canadian citizens and police, some violent.
Anti-American feelings risk in both Canada and the UK.

3. 1898
During the Spanish–American Britain is concerns about teh potential US acquisition of Cuba, and hence a threat to her Caribbean holdings. The US refuses to allay British fears and tensions rise once again. The UK supports Spain, but not t a great degree.

4. 1899
The US openly supports the Boers during the Second Boer war, though the actual effects are limited.

5. 1902
The US acts to break the combined European blockade of Venezuela and forces the powers to back down.
The US begins intense naval construction.

6. 1913
The US government is quietly supportive of the IVF, allowing weapons to be purchased in America to arm the Volunteers and arranging for US veterans to assist the nascent force.
I accept this as one possibility but as many posters have argued that it then distorts forces and politics on both sides and some wanted a simple POD that allowed for both sides to have same forces in 1914 as iOTL.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Now it wouldn't. The numbers simply aren't there, especially for the Canadians. It would be far more comparable to the Eastern Front, with it's wide open spaces and snow.
In west yes but in east no it be trench warfare along Niagara peninsula.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Only if the US want's to play that game.
What game we talking about? This is war not a game. The US has no idea what war is in 1914. The need to go after the industrial heartland of Canada. Do you think the Two sides decided to have trench ware fare notvit was a result of two armies attacking each other with automatic guns and artillery.
 
Well if your line is everyone else but the glorious Americans are cowards then I suppose you can argue that.

If you're unable to debate on what's actually been said, perhaps it's best you refrain from further participation here. This is all for fun on a discussion forum, not a commentary on the particular characteristics of any people; you're losing sight of this.

The problem is that the Royal Navy has operated under conditions where the combined fleets of the enemy outnumber them before, it is part of the naval tradition.

The days of sail and Nelson are long over by 1914. The rather dramatic failure of the Imperial Japanese Navy in WWII shows what happens when you attempt to rely on "spirit" over the material.

They will risk forces to cover North America but in each case no they do not need parity as they are likely to be defending.

Then they have already lost the war. The Germans not only break the blockade, they can thus cut the English Channel traffic and bring Britain and France to their collective knees. In the Americas, the U.S. rapidly overruns Canada and will be set to do the same for the British and French colonial possessions. The fact of the matter is the Entente is in a situation where it can neither perform action nor inaction.

That means that either the US fleet will find itself operating close to Halifax or the Germans close to somewhere like Rosyth if they want to bring the battle to the British and either (in the case of the Americans) intercept supplies to Canada or break the blockade (in the German instance).

They do not, as you've already elucidated; the Royal Navy cannot simultaneously be on the defensive while maintaining a blockade or protecting convoys to Canada. As for the particular point of Canada, what convoys? The British just lost 20% of their imports to cite one example. Are they going to leave the BEF depleted to do this? If so, the Germans are in position to threaten the Bethune coal mines.

Further but yes I am pretty sure that the Royal Navy would risk a three capital ship margin at times in order to face the Americans if they thought they could bring them to battle on favourable terms.

You've lost sight of your own point, which was that the Royal Navy is on the defensive yet they're seeking a decisive battle? You can do one, but not both for rather obvious reasons. We're also back to what I said about needing a 2:1 margin, because if they do less against the Americans the Germans will know they have the margin to seek a decisive battle against the Grand Fleet. Further, for all the talk of tradition the last time I can recall the Royal Navy leaving the British Isles exposed to foreign attack was in 1779.

The US fleet being the weaker of the two enemy forces and defeat in detail being a thing. Likely though all three navies would avoid battle save under favourable terms meaning a lot of glaring but most action among the lighter units where once again the Royal Navy still have a significant margin.

An oddity to claim given the HSF repeatedly sortied despite the odds being against it. Once it becomes clear the British are dangerously exposed, the Germans will force the English into a battle, by breaking the blockade and threatening the Channel. As for the lighter units, they could also do what the Anglo-Americans feared they would do IOTL; sortie so much that the British are forced to empty their fuel supplies responding to such maneuvers.

As to the fall of Paris, it is not going to happen (or rather not in 1914), the Germans had outrun the extent of horse drawn supply by the time they reached the Marne let alone Paris. That rather than the exact situation on the ground is why Oberst-Leutnant Hentsch gave instructions for a withdrawal. This same situation had been foreseen by Schliffen himself but had been handwaved away by later adherents to his plan.

Oh it can definitely happen, given the French 5th Army was nearly encircled twice in August along with the BEF. Doing such was within German capabilities and would've meant the French had no means of countering the German advance on Paris.

Once again even with the US onboard trying hard to win a depression the war will not be over by Christmas 1914.

I've argued to the contrary.

Canada can be knocked out reasonably fast by cutting its rail connections, and the British will know the U.S. will be in position to do the same to the rest of their possessions in 1915 onward. London could make an effort to reinforce Canada at the expense of the BEF, which could keep Canada in the war until sometime in the 1915 campaign season when U.S. numbers crush them. However, doing so probably means conceding everything north of the Somme and that will knock France out of the war; she cannot continue on with 70% of her war industry gone. The Royal Navy, meanwhile, is overstretched and logistically exhausted. She might have avoided a battle with either her American or German competitors, but doing such means having surrendered the initiative to either or both.

In short, both London and Paris will know the game is up.
 
I'm wondering about this 2/3 global oil output, although I don't doubt that in macro terms in 1917 or whatever its accurate enough. How much was exported, and to whom and for what? The reason I ask is because I have read that in 1917 the Royal Navy (note the RN not Britain) got most of ITS oil from mexico, and US intervention was likely to get those sources destroyed, which was a reason behind the Zimmerman telegram.

As usual the devil is in the details, so.lets exorcise the devil.

1914 figures show the U.S. at 63% of global output. As for Mexico, it was overwhelmingly controlled by American businesses interests.
 

Lusitania

Donor
If you're unable to debate on what's actually been said, perhaps it's best you refrain from further participation here. This is all for fun on a discussion forum, not a commentary on the particular characteristics of any people; you're losing sight of this.



The days of sail and Nelson are long over by 1914. The rather dramatic failure of the Imperial Japanese Navy in WWII shows what happens when you attempt to rely on "spirit" over the material.



Then they have already lost the war. The Germans not only break the blockade, they can thus cut the English Channel traffic and bring Britain and France to their collective knees. In the Americas, the U.S. rapidly overruns Canada and will be set to do the same for the British and French colonial possessions. The fact of the matter is the Entente is in a situation where it can neither perform action nor inaction.



They do not, as you've already elucidated; the Royal Navy cannot simultaneously be on the defensive while maintaining a blockade or protecting convoys to Canada. As for the particular point of Canada, what convoys? The British just lost 20% of their imports to cite one example. Are they going to leave the BEF depleted to do this? If so, the Germans are in position to threaten the Bethune coal mines.



You've lost sight of your own point, which was that the Royal Navy is on the defensive yet they're seeking a decisive battle? You can do one, but not both for rather obvious reasons. We're also back to what I said about needing a 2:1 margin, because if they do less against the Americans the Germans will know they have the margin to seek a decisive battle against the Grand Fleet. Further, for all the talk of tradition the last time I can recall the Royal Navy leaving the British Isles exposed to foreign attack was in 1779.



An oddity to claim given the HSF repeatedly sortied despite the odds being against it. Once it becomes clear the British are dangerously exposed, the Germans will force the English into a battle, by breaking the blockade and threatening the Channel. As for the lighter units, they could also do what the Anglo-Americans feared they would do IOTL; sortie so much that the British are forced to empty their fuel supplies responding to such maneuvers.



Oh it can definitely happen, given the French 5th Army was nearly encircled twice in August along with the BEF. Doing such was within German capabilities and would've meant the French had no means of countering the German advance on Paris.



I've argued to the contrary.

Canada can be knocked out reasonably fast by cutting its rail connections, and the British will know the U.S. will be in position to do the same to the rest of their possessions in 1915 onward. London could make an effort to reinforce Canada at the expense of the BEF, which could keep Canada in the war until sometime in the 1915 campaign season when U.S. numbers crush them. However, doing so probably means conceding everything north of the Somme and that will knock France out of the war; she cannot continue on with 70% of her war industry gone. The Royal Navy, meanwhile, is overstretched and logistically exhausted. She might have avoided a battle with either her American or German competitors, but doing such means having surrendered the initiative to either or both.

In short, both London and Paris will know the game is up.
Everyone claims Canada going to be railroaded and be over early. But you keep ignoring the fact both countries be ramping up war production and training troops at same time and both starting with Jess than 100,000 troops. Both be able to put hundreds of thousands of men in uniform and arm them. So the first real militRy action be in 1915. The Canadians will be beat but be in 1916 when the US be able to use its weight and defeat the Canadians.

As for knowing game is up. I think you need to forget that rectoric because no side is going to give up until they can no longer fight. Any realistic POD would of started years before and the US and Britain would not of been best of friends in 1914.
 
At Jutland Jellicoe achieved tactical perfection by crossing Sheer's T twice, and Scheer was no idiot. Crossing the T Is hard but not nearly mpossible for the skilled RN Admirals.

Food for thought on this point.

Outside of the historic German losses, they only came close to losing the Konig as well. Granted, had the Royal Navy work out its cordite issues before the war or over the course of the conflict, losses on the German side could've been higher. As for the Royal Navy, HMS Tiger, HMS Lion, HMS Barham, and HMS Malaya could've been lost given they had hits on their magazines. HMS Princess Royal, HMS New Zealand and HMS Colossus were also close runs possibly.

For something closer to the time-frame of our topic, consider Scarborough. The Second Battle Squadron composed of the Battleships King George V, Ajax, Centurion, Orion, Monarch, and Conqueror as well as the First Battle Cruiser Squadron with the Lion, Queen Mary, Tiger, and New Zealand nearly blundered into the entirety of the HSF while the rest of the Grand Fleet was in Scapa Flow.
 
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Everyone claims Canada going to be railroaded and be over early. But you keep ignoring the fact both countries be ramping up war production and training troops at same time and both starting with Jess than 100,000 troops.

We've already repeatedly established the U.S. has over 100,000 troops in 1914; closer to 160,000 actually. The Canadians have about 35,000.

Both be able to put hundreds of thousands of men in uniform and arm them. So the first real militRy action be in 1915. The Canadians will be beat but be in 1916 when the US be able to use its weight and defeat the Canadians.

Canada will not be boosting military production because it will be cut in two without access to its Western provinces and the British will not be sending aid because to do so would mean loosing the war on the continent.

As for knowing game is up. I think you need to forget that rectoric because no side is going to give up until they can no longer fight. Any realistic POD would of started years before and the US and Britain would not of been best of friends in 1914.

And they will give up precisely because they can no longer fight on. From the very get go of a conflict, the British loose 20% of their imports, the French 25-50% of their steel inputs, and for both their number one supplier of food and oil. By December of 1914 the Royal Navy will have been effectively forced out of the conflict due to logistics if nothing else. If butterflies have sufficiently been put into play it's entirely possible the Bethune coal mines if not Paris itself have fallen. In such a situation the Entente absolutely cannot continue the fight.
 

Lusitania

Donor
We've already repeatedly established the U.S. has over 100,000 troops in 1914; closer to 160,000 actually. The Canadians have about 35,000.



Canada will not be boosting military production because it will be cut in two without access to its Western provinces and the British will not be sending aid because to do so would mean loosing the war on the continent.



And they will give up precisely because they can no longer fight on. From the very get go of a conflict, the British loose 20% of their imports, the French 25-50% of their steel inputs, and for both their number one supplier of food and oil. By December of 1914 the Royal Navy will have been effectively forced out of the conflict due to logistics if nothing else. If butterflies have sufficiently been put into play it's entirely possible the Bethune coal mines if not Paris itself have fallen. In such a situation the Entente absolutely cannot continue the fight.
No we have not established that, we are talking about troops in the lower 48 not elsewhere.

The entente will continue to fight but the war will not last till 1918 itvwould of finished in 1916.
 
No we have not established that, we are talking about troops in the lower 48 not elsewhere.

You did not specify and I am not a mind reader. With this in mind, the U.S. has 53,000 regulars and a further 27,000 National Guardsmen, for a total of 80,000 to about 35,000 Canadians; this is two to one odds. The U.S. can maintain a parity force to the Canadian heartland while sending an expedition to cut the Trans-Canada in half at any number of places.

The entente will continue to fight but the war will not last till 1918 itvwould of finished in 1916.

If what I say comes to pass, absolutely not. Unless of course we expect the Entente to fight on with pointy sticks while eating grass.
 

Lusitania

Donor
You did not specify and I am not a mind reader. With this in mind, the U.S. has 53,000 regulars and a further 27,000 National Guardsmen, for a total of 80,000 to about 35,000 Canadians; this is two to one odds. The U.S. can maintain a parity force to the Canadian heartland while sending an expedition to cut the Trans-Canada in half at any number of places.



If what I say comes to pass, absolutely not. Unless of course we expect the Entente to fight on with pointy sticks while eating grass.
No you not mind reader but we are discussing troops facing Canada so we need to discuss apples to apples. These US troops not in continental US are not going to leave their posting for they are needed to guard those places. Plus US keep part of the continent army along Mexico border and along other along other vital coastal areas to protect from raiders. So both be starting atbsame amount of troops along its border and be building them up.
 
No you not mind reader but we are discussing troops facing Canada so we need to discuss apples to apples. These US troops not in continental US are not going to leave their posting for they are needed to guard those places. Plus US keep part of the continent army along Mexico border and along other along other vital coastal areas to protect from raiders. So both be starting atbsame amount of troops along its border and be building them up.

And again, you did not specify you were only talking about CONUS troops. As for the troops in question, I don't expect them to leave their postings at all as what the U.S. has on hand in CONUS is more than sufficient to do what I outlined. Matter of fact, a large portion of U.S. forces overseas are already deployed in Mexico, so that's not a major issue but if we must consider further deployments there, it's easily done. The U.S. has 80,000 troops, it can deploy 35,000 to New England and upper New York to tie down the Canadians, deploy 35,000 along the Mexican border and use the remaining 10,000 to cut the Trans-Canada unopposed.
 

Lusitania

Donor
And again, you did not specify you were only talking about CONUS troops. As for the troops in question, I don't expect them to leave their postings at all as what the U.S. has on hand in CONUS is more than sufficient to do what I outlined. Matter of fact, a large portion of U.S. forces overseas are already deployed in Mexico, so that's not a major issue but if we must consider further deployments there, it's easily done. The U.S. has 80,000 troops, it can deploy 35,000 to New England and upper New York to tie down the Canadians, deploy 35,000 along the Mexican border and use the remaining 10,000 to cut the Trans-Canada unopposed.
Wow I must be hitting a nerve because you keep getting upset that Canada might defend itself. So for every thing I coming you bringing troops of somewhere. You also seem to forget the 40,000 militia that US had to defend itself. Yes they not trained st same level as regular troops but they can defend and a few sub machine guns stoops any foolish American intrusion.

So take a few minutes to realize that any action will not be in 1914 and that all troops levels you identify are useless. IOTL the US and Britain are best of friends and also have their economies intertwined. The US is an isolationist country with support for any foreign intervention limited to being hostile by huge portion of the US.

So let’s put a realistic POD which is way before 1914 causing relations to change and position on both sides to change.

It is ridiculous to state iOTL Britain and US to engage in war out of blue. Since the person who started the thread has abandoned it and provided no information to stipulate a war of 1914 with iOTL countries, politics and troop levels is absurd.
 
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