Don't know if this is too long but I felt it best to finish this off. I am doing some research before I move on to the aftermath. I picture Mexico being more interested in the Belize-Guatemala border conflict as well as build up to the Bay of Pigs. Then there's the elections to talk about and Mexico's political history in the 60's. I might not be as detailed moving forward though.
The Mexican Guatemalan Conflict: A la guerra me llevan (They are taking me to the war)
Both countries found themselves in a war brought on by bloated egos, wounded pride, and runaway nationalism. Both Ydigoras and Lopez wanted a quick end to the war that would lead to renewed diplomatic negotiations. Both leaders, and their governments, had no desire for conquest or what would be known as nation building, replacing government leadership or establishing puppet regimes.
Lopez asked his generals for quick decisive blows that would force Ydigoras to agree to a ceasefire and renewed talks. SEDENA and SEMAR came up with a quick battle plan. SEMAR, the Navy Secretariat, would establish blockades on Guatemala’s two principal ports. Puerto Barrios would also be occupied by a landing force of 800 Marines to be reinforced by another 600 marines. Puerto Quetzal would be occupied by an initial marine force of 300 men to be reinforced by another 600 marines. This would require the bulk of Mexico’s Naval capacity and its Marine corps.
SEDENA, the Army and Airforce Secretariat, would cross the Guatemalan border with two armies. The first army, made up of 2 infantry regiments, 2 cavalry battalions, 1 motorized battalion and 1 light armored battalion, and 3 towed artillery battalions, would cross at Ciudad Hidalgo, go through Retalhuleu (Where the CIA originally planed to train brigade 2506) to Lake Atitlan, break into two task forces to go around the lake and prepare an attack on Guatemala City in a pincer maneuver. The second army composted of 2 infantry regiments, 2 cavalry battalions, 2 motorized battalions, 2 artillery battalions would move into the Petén from the west, take Flores and two other road junctures in the southern area of the Petén near San Antonio de las Cruces and Modesto Mendez to cut off the Petén and its forces from Guatemala City. The plan was also to send in two cavalry companies to gather anti-government Mayans to support the Mexican army by bringing in an impromptu “Indio brigade” from the Yucatan made up by around 100 reluctant Mayan young men who knew more than two Mayan languages and at least a passing conversational level of Spanish. These men were “encouraged” to serve “their country”. They were split into four platoons and attached to the cavalry companies.
Guatemalan army planed sending two task forces each comprised of two infantry regiments, one artillery battalions and 1 cavalry regiment to go around Mount Peña Blanca through the border city of Mesilla. The first army would move south towards the Pacific coast to attack Tapachula and Ciudad Hidalgo from the rear cutting off the growing Mexican forces in that region from its supply lines. The Second army would move north west with the ambitious goal of reaching Tuxtla Gutierrez, the capital city of the border state of Chiapas. The remaining Guatemalan forces were split into 4 main groups, or armies. The first was made up of a sole infantry regiment and a cavalry battalion with a few towed artillery pieces and was stationed in the Petén region. The second was split into two taskforces to defend Puerto Barrios and Puerto Quetzal, composed of two infantry regiments and 2 artillery battalions. The third was stationed along the border with Chiapas with a similar composition plus a few cavalry units. The fourth was stationed around Guatemala City with the remaining artillery battalions, infantry and cavalry battalions.[1]
Ydigoras lobbied his central American allies for troops, planes, and gunships to shore up Guatemalan defenses. However, the CIA convinced Honduras to stay out of any military action and established a new base near San Pedro as well as an airfield to be the new home of Brigade 2506. El Salvador was weary with Honduras’ decision to not send troops and decided it was best to hold on to its forces. Nicaragua was unable to get permission to send forces north through either Honduras or El Salvador. Guatemala was essentially betrayed. However, El Salvador did fly in a few replacement aircraft for the FAG’s losses in the Mexican attack on its principal airbase as well as volunteers forming two infantry battalions.[2]
The Mexican Guatemalan Conflict: A quagmire
The first two weeks of the war did not go according to plan for either side, something that each country’s people did not expect. This gave way to rumors of spies and sabotage. In reality, both armies suffered as a result of corruption and disinterest. Mexico’s air force was in disrepair with several aircraft inoperable. Mexico no longer had the 3 WW2 squadrons of P-47 fighters and was barely able to activate 3 P-47’s. The Guatemalan Mustangs escaped Mexico’s initial attack. Both air forces ended up chasing each other providing their respective armies with little support.
The first Mexican army managed to occupy Ayutla and began pushing forwards towards Retalhuleu, but it got stuck facing fierce resistance. Guatemala’s two taskforces faced poor military planning and their arrival at the road juncture past Peña Blanca was delayed. While they faced only a few picket units, they were able to hold on to their position in Mexico but had to delay further action until they reorganized and formed a strong supply line. That gave the Mexicans enough time to move in a motorized brigade from central Mexico as well as cavalry and air support from reserve units of the air force.
The second Mexican army quickly managed to take Flores in the center of the Petén but found it difficult to win over the local Mayan populations. It was unable to move on to phase two, taking the southern road junctures. Puerto Quetzal was not invaded and only blockaded by the Mexican navy. However Mexican marines managed to land in Puerto Barrios but faced heavy casualties before taking the city. They were un able to move beyond the city’s limits. For the next 2 weeks little would change on the battlefield.
The Mexican Guatemalan Conflict: Mexico at the Homefront
As the war started to generate casualties in the first month of hostilities, many Mexicans began questioning Lopez Mateo’s decisions. Even some in the PRI began to wonder if he could have done more to deescalate the tensions. Others realized the ineptitude of the Mexican armed forces. The only reason Mexico has been able to keep on the offensive is thanks to even greater ineptitude in the Guatemalan military. Underfunding, outdated equipment, subpar officer corps as a result of corruption in the political system all began to be seen through the conflict on both sides.
Adolfo Christlieb Ibarrola, a rising PAN party member began to publish several newspapers criticizing Lopez Mateos and the ruling party for the poor state of affairs that the Mexican Army, Air Force, and Navy found itself. He accused Lopez Mateos as being personally responsible for each and every dead Mexican soldier, marine, pilot, and sailor. Local police officers received orders to arrest him for sedation on May 27th. This was Christlieb’s second time in jail, the first taking place after being arrested for speaking out against corrupt government officials [3]
PAN’s president Jose Gonzalez Torres protested Christlieb’s arrest as well as what he noted was “The political repression of a government that only pretends to be a democracy” he would also add, “This same authoritarian repressive regime has taken it upon itself to rob from the people and from the armed forces that defend the people. And as if that was not enough, they also send that destitute military to fight a war it was not equipped for.” Lopez ordered the release of Christlieb and called on his generals to develop victories soon fearing that the US would not stay away from the conflict. Sooner or later the US would call Mexico’s bluff regarding his meeting with the soviet ambassador and intervene. The US was wildcard and he wasn’t sure who they would side with, but considering Mexico’s neutrality in the recent Cuban revolution, it didn’t bode well for Mexico.
The Mexican Guatemalan Conflict: Guatemala at the Homefront
Ydigoras’ was infuriated at the lack of progress at Peña Blanca. The Guatemalan people were becoming unruly as well. He began blaming the Mayans and “treasonous officers” for the debacle at the Petén and ordered his second army to start taking prisoners and to “Find the communist **** who are helping those ******!” The loss of the two main port cities was starting to be felt in Guatemala City as supplies began to dwindle and prices slowly started to rise. Guatemala also needed munitions and planes, and with Puerto Barrios and Puerto Quetzal out of commission, it didn’t look well for Guatemala.
Resentment in the officer corps began to build up in light of Ydigoras’ abusive language and insistence of continuing the invasion of Chiapas despite not having fully reorganized its forces which were still being attacked by cavalry companies. The Press began wondering if Ydigoras was going to call for a ceasefire and negotiate from a position of weakness. Ydigoras found relief as el Salvador and Honduras agreed to receive shipping for Guatemala and send the supplies to Guatemala. However due to poor transportation networks across borders, it was minimal relief.
Then good news for Ydigoras arrived. Jacobo Abrenz, who was elected president back in the early 50’s beating him by a landslide and then removed via one of the CIA’s regular coups in Guatemala and then exiled was reported to have boarded a plane for Mexico City. Ydigoras claimed that Abrenz not only was proving his communist ties but was also going to Mexico City to offer himself as a candidate for Mexico’s puppet government over a conquered Guatemala. He claimed that Cuban revolutionaries were soon to join Mexico in the war and that Lopez’s meetings with the ambassadors of the USSR and Belize was a sure sign of an alliance meant to subjugate all of Central America.[4]
In reality Abrenz felt that he would finally have home free of surveillance and hostility of which he was subjugated everywhere else he fled due to the fact that Mexico was fighting the nation that rejected and defamed him as a communist. Instead of going to Cuba, he felt he’d have a better chance at some normalcy for himself and his family in Mexico.[5]
The Mexican Guatemalan Conflict: Stuck between a Marxist rock and a Capitalist Giant, the end of the war
After the initial month of fighting, the US was considering intervention. However, Nixon earlier faced a harsh welcome in his tour of Latin America and new that anti-American sentiment was at an all time high and direct intervention would mean handing Latin America over to the Russians, he didn’t forget the unusually public meeting between Lopez and the soviet ambassador. The US was assured that Mexico was only intending to right a wrong done to its people and didn’t desire foreign intervention in any capacity. Nixon called for an emergency session of the Organization of American States to be held in Washington DC at the end of April. Guatemala and Mexico both agreed to attend.
The meeting went nowhere with neither party willing to be the first to call for a cease fire. The negotiations and talks went nowhere and Nixon was pressured by both his own people and other nations to focus more on the Cuban problem. In the end the topic did change to Cuba. This gave both stubborn leaders freedom to continue the war for a little while longer.
Guatemala continued its invasion of Chiapas, but Mexico managed to finally capture Retalhuheu and split its first army. By June 19th he two task forces managed to get within 50 miles of Guatemala City. The Second army also finally achieved its goals and took the Petén region. Guatemala’s attack was stopped after a concerted counter attack by Mexican reserve forces and forced a retreat on June 25th. On June 27th the CIA got word of KGB agents infiltrating the Indio Brigade and several villages in the Petén. Ydigoras’ claims began to catch some credibility and the US began pressuring Mexico to call for a ceasefire. The USSR got the idea to infiltrate the Peten, and stir up Mayan nationalism from Ydigoras’ accusations, ironically enough. The KGB had achieved a new interest in Central American affairs and was hopping to begin a Mayan uprising that would finally introduce communism to Mexico and Belize.
Having secured Mexico’s wargoals Lopez Mateos asked for a neutral 3rd party that could “Bring both belligerent nations to the table and respect the dignity of the Mexican and Guatemalan people” in August 1st. He did it in part because he was informed by a DFS (Mexico’s CIA) agent that Nixon has asked some American commanders in the US Navy for an update of American amphibious assault capable assets in the region as well as the establishment of clandestine bases in Honduras near San Pedro which were later collaborated by Mexican Naval Intelligence. His own generals also informed him that Mexico was running out of supplies and that Guatemala was getting supplies straight from the Salvadorian and Honduran armies. Entire units were going to the Guatemalan border and literally handing off their guns, ammo, and in some cases even uniforms to the Guatemalans.
On August 3rd Ydigoras decided to agree to negotiations noting the language his Mexican counterpart used and still hoping to get in on the CIA’s plans. He also feared intervention from the USSR itself. Negotiations opened up in San Jose, Costa Rica on August 9th. Mexico agreed to formally apologize for the actions of Mexican citizens including the captured fishermen. It also agreed that it could have done more to assist Guatemala’s security concerns. Guatemala agreed to formally apologize for using force on the fishermen and attacking Mexico. It also agreed to pay indemnities to the fishermen and their families for loss of life, property, and their prolonged imprisonment as well as rescinding the fine and damages for the initial attack. Both nations agreed not to seek further war reparations, return any and all POW’s and corpses of the dead. Both nations also agreed to reinitiate diplomatic relationships and committed to developing an agreement on mutual enforcement of each nation’s laws along the border to prevent further conflicts. The Peace treaty was signed on August 20th 1959. By the end of the month, the last Mexican units left Guatemala.
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[1] I am playing fast and loose with these numbers. It’s been difficult to find sources with specifics on either army. Though I managed to find a source that listed active ships in the Mexican navy.
[2] The CIA base to train soldiers for the bay of pigs invasion was established in the OTL in May 1960. ITTL it wouldn’t have been that difficult for the CIA to switch gears, it would have been more difficult to try to interfere in the conflict though.
[3] The 1958 PAN presidential candidate was actually jailed for a bit of time in the OTL for his political activism by local police but released later because a higher up found out that Mexico had this thing called “freedom of speech”. This is what inspired this event for TTL.
[4] Abrenz was one of very few democratically elected rulers of Guatemala’s history up to this point. He beat Ydigoras by a landslide in elections, so much that Ydigoras fabricated stories about communists to the CIA. Eventually a coup took place, and after a few years Ydigoras became president. Abrenz was demonized in Latin America as a result and lived in exile under constant hostility and surveillance.
[5] Abrenz ended up going to Cuba and not Mexico and in a way did become infatuated with Communism, if you can’t beat them…I guess. Eventually Guatemala apologized and made amends with his family. (I wonder how his life would change ITTL)