In a scenario where the Bolsheviks were defeated in the Russian Civil War and a weak republic limps along during the 1920s but falls to Fascism (or an ideology which is essentially Fascism by another name) during the *Great Depression, how powerful would such a Fascist Russia be (let's assume that Russian *Fascism is essentially a right-wing version of Stalinism for this scenario)? Would it be more powerful than the Soviet Union or not? What would be it's strengths and weaknesses compared to the Third Reich?
How powerful would a Fascist Russia be?
- Thread starter Whiteshore
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- fascist russia
Let's assume for this scenario that the Fascist Russia's starting borders are the 1922 borders of the USSR.
Victory of Whites would need so much good luck that it is hard to believe that they can capture Ukraine and Caucasus. Belarus perhaps but it not be sure. One of biggest weakness of Whites was lack of cooperation. About only issue where they agreed was defeating Bolcheviks. If Whites would win, there probably would be power struggle between different factions. So this would cause much weaker Russia, not matter who would win that.
Justinian
Banned
The Whites would have to consolidate before they could retake the Ukraine, however that would only take a few years. By 1925 they would be capable of retaking it and then marching on the Caucasus. If they encourage industrial development without the forced agricultural collectivization it would prevent the famines while still seeing progress made in the economic sphere. The damage of war communism is avoided too. The Fascist Russians and Third Reich would probably make amicable partners, without any ideological constraints there are stronger incentives for cooperation.
Depending on how accomplished the Fascist leader would be, but assuming he was not a White Stalin or more than a casual anti-Semitist , probably stronger than Stalin's Russia. Engineers and railwaymen unlikely to be purged, aircraft designers not going to be imprisoned for a critical year in the late nineteen thirties. No purges of intelligence services and the Vozhd might even listen to them! No ideological communist agents so Western penetration not as good but Russians always historically have been good at spying so probably balanced by more use of bribery and blackmail and better analysis (Fascists are as ideologically driven as Communists but their ideology is more opportunistic than deterministic so probably not going to get things as badly wrong as USSR did on occasion OTL.). At the very least are unlikely to be fixated on the notion that the Western Powers want to invade and overthrow their regime. This wasn't a practical position or proposition from 1930 on OTL but Stalin never realised that.
Zworykin, Seversky and Sikorsky et al probably not emigres but working away in Russia. Army, Air Force and Navy not purged and, with at least a mixed economy, more efficient allocation of economic resources. More Tsarist experts retained (and Tsarist Russia wasn't doing a bad job of building itself an Army, Navy and infrastructure or educating itself scientists and engineers whatever its other faults may have been) and no forced collectivisation. More qualified managers and entrepreneurs and more foreign trade so opportunities to buy in what could not domestically be produced. Probably better public health measures than OTL.
Then it would also depend on their foreign policy -Reckless adventurism (unite the rest of Europe against them), Cautious expansionism (like OTL USSR - unite the rest of Europe in a defensive alliance) or an Oswald Moseley style "we will protect and defend our Empire" defensive fascism?
Zworykin, Seversky and Sikorsky et al probably not emigres but working away in Russia. Army, Air Force and Navy not purged and, with at least a mixed economy, more efficient allocation of economic resources. More Tsarist experts retained (and Tsarist Russia wasn't doing a bad job of building itself an Army, Navy and infrastructure or educating itself scientists and engineers whatever its other faults may have been) and no forced collectivisation. More qualified managers and entrepreneurs and more foreign trade so opportunities to buy in what could not domestically be produced. Probably better public health measures than OTL.
Then it would also depend on their foreign policy -Reckless adventurism (unite the rest of Europe against them), Cautious expansionism (like OTL USSR - unite the rest of Europe in a defensive alliance) or an Oswald Moseley style "we will protect and defend our Empire" defensive fascism?
If Russia goes fascist, there probably wouldn't be Nazi Germany when fear of Communism helped them rise to power. There might be some authotarian government in Germany but not Nazis perhaps not even fascist. And even if Germany goes fascist it not mean that there would be German-Russian allaince. Fascists not necessarility form alliance systems.
I disagree.
Assuming this is the same Nazi Leadership as OTL, they definitely aren't going to give up rightful German Lebensraum to some Slavic Untermensch no matter how similar they are ideologically
Deleted member 1487
Without the USSR there probably is never a Nazi Germany. Part of the reason they got into power was the success of Communism.
What he said. All good points, but parts I quoted would be most important IMO.
Even if Whites would fail to recover Ukraine or Caucasus, by the time WWII equivalent comes, they'd be in much better position than Reds.
Even assuming exactly same leadership as OTL, they would use different rhetoric when talking about Russia that isn't being run by "Judeo-Bolsheviks".
More than likely it will be weaker than a Soviet state. Fascist Russia will remain connected to the world market and assuming the depression still happens on time, it will be hit as well unlike otl. Otl since the Soviet Union was isolated from most of the world trade the depression didn't do much damage and in fact the Soviets hired western firms to help their industrialization effort during that time. A fascist Russia might not have as much opportunity and will likely take longer to develop its heavy industry remaining more agrarian for a longer time.
Justinian
Banned
However a right wing authoritarian restoration was inevitable in Germany, either under the auspices of the DNVP or an ahistorical group.
Deleted member 1487
No, I don't buy that. It was just one possibility, Weimar could survive with different factors at play.
The Whites could not take Ukraine, the Caucasus, or even possibly Belarus. Depending on who is in charge of Ukraine, if its Vasyl von Habsburg or Pavlo Skoropadsky the Ukrainian state would be too strong, if its Symon Petliura they'd be weak enough for it to be possible, but in that case there is a good change they'd be allies with Poland, which complicates matters. Either way, coming 1939 Russia will be weaker. Stronger than a Soviet Russia without Ukraine and the Caucasus would have been, but weaker than the OTL Soviet Union. Ukraine was the most industrialized area in all of Eastern Europe and the most fertile on earth.
Firstly, the depression wouldn't have happened in the same way if Russia had been connected to the world market because Russia would have been selling grains, minerals (including quite a lot of gold) and furs and buying (and selling) manufactured products on the world market. OTL everyone else paid the price of the USSR cutting itself off from the world market. Yes, there would have been a market saturation and downturn eventually but it wouldn't have been the Great Depression of OTL (probably wouldn't have hit until around 1933 or 34 for starters with a larger world market -by which time some new or improved products would be starting a fresh economic upturn). And, if Russia was a Fascist power by 1922, Britain and France would not have reduced their defence spending as much in the 1920s and raised it more in the early 1930s. So busier shipyards and fewer unemployed. No Jarrow Hunger March. And Russian debt probably not repudiated though quite probably renegotiated (so Britain and France have more fiscal breathing space). Earlier German and Hungarian rearmament likely tolerated by the Western powers plus much more German trade with Russia. And autobahns would have gone ahead without the Nazis (they took credit for decisions already taken) And Winston Churchill might not have been able to put Britain back on the Gold Standard in the 1920s (which made the British situation much worse). So probably the world economy TTL not a close analogue to OTL.
Secondly, someone once said that "the USSR is a geological scandal" - the Russian Empire would have huge mineral and oil reserves. They can buy in Western technology no matter what kind of regime they have, they aren't relying on the wheat harvest to pay for it. Can barter oil, gold, mineral ores, precious stones. Fascists less likely to be obstructed by other countries than the Bolsheviks (look at British and American trade with Nazis OTL) -Poles, Balts, Turks, Finns, Romanians, Hungarians wouldn't be terribly enthused by Russia's development but Americans, British, French though very wary of the great Power in the East wouldn't have any sense of it being an existential threat. Germans probably too focused on rebuilding their economy to have qualms. And Italians probably see them as allies.
Thirdly, it is a myth (largely based on doctored statistics from the old USSR and apologists for Stalin) that the Bolsheviks/CCCP were particularly efficient at industrialisation. They actually compare rather unfavourably to the last three Tsars. Under War Communism Russia actually deindustrialised. The New Economic Policy 1923-29 only restored Russia's industrial capacity to around 1914 levels. Stalin certainly delivered industrial production growth 1930-39 though the effects of forced collectivisation and the purges would have done as much or more damage to the economy than the Great Recession did in the West OTL. A White victory in 1921 or 22 would have started economic regeneration a year or two earlier and, being less ideologically blinkered and more open to trade and foreign loans delivered growth at least half a percentage point higher each year from 1923-1941. Not as good as avoiding the Bolsheviks altogether but around 10% larger than the 1941 economy of the OTL USSR at a conservative estimate (I am not making allowance for any White Russian Gustav Krupp, Alfred Nobel, Henry Ford, Giovanni Agnelli etc. who might kick that figure up by another 4 or 5%) And in a country as large as Russia there should be at least one or two such.
Likely? Yes. Inevitable? I don't think so. There was several factors on rising of right-wing that these might be butterflied away. With White Russia path of Germany would be pretty different.
Justinian
Banned
There was still a strong antipathy of the Reichswehr and other paramilitary groups against the democratic government. The German military had already tried to seize power during the Kapp Putsch but was prevented by a show of popular support for the republic. However that popular support base wouldn't have existed in the 1930's, in fact it was Hindenburg himself who discouraged such measures as he was a post war icon of militarism and German nationalism.
I'd say Fascist Russia would be more powerful than the USSR as they won't kill large swathes of their officer corps for no apparent reason.
The scenario states that Russia starts out as a weak republic and only goes Fascist due to the alt-Great Depression.
Alcsentre Calanice
Gone Fishin'
For the Reichswehr you're right; but note that democracy wasn't helpless against paramilitary activities, since the democratic parties had established their own militia, the Reichsbanner Schwarz-Rot-Gold.
No, that's not true. The Kapp-Putsch was the action of some poritions of the Reichswehr and of the Freikorps, former units acting on their own. The leadership of the Reichswehr, which certainly had sympathies for the putschists, stayed neutral and refused to defend the government - but it didn't take part in the putsch.
In November 1932, one third of the Germans voted for the democratic parties Zentrum and SPD. Furthermore, Hindenburg had been elected with the support of the democratic parties.
I think you underestimate the support for democracy in the German population. Most Germans supported the republic until the Great Depression and Brüning's austerity policies. Poverty and unemployment lead to the great gains of the Nazi party in July 1932. But the situation improved and the Nazis already lost a great number of seats in the November 1932 elections. It was bad luck that Hitler was appointed chancellor in January 1933. In the long run the NSDAP would have lost its strong positions to more moderate parties.