How powerful would a Fascist Russia be?

[BooNZ]

Education is one area that Nicholas disagreed strongly with his father.

During his reign Alexander III generally did not involve Nicholas in matters of state, so I doubt Nicholas would have formed a considered opinion on education policy, let alone grow the steel ones required to disagree with his father. Notwithstanding the above, education featured more prominently in the reign of Nicholas because an educated population was increasingly desirable in both industrial and military circles.

In 1894, total primary education spending (zemstvos and central government) is only around 11,000,000 rubles. By 1906 it had soared to 45,000,000 reaching 125,000,000 by 1914

Indeed the secular Zemstvo- funded schools increased enrollment at the elementary level from 910,587 students in 1893 to 1,324,608 students in 1903, a respectable if not spectacular increase.

School attendence rose rapidly- in 1910, about 46% of children 8-11 were attending school (65% of the boys and 30% of the girls). Only one fourth of zemstvos schools offered the fourth year in 1910 though this was rapidly increasing. The number of schools rose by 25% between 1910 nd the outbreak of the war. Universal male education, except for extreme rural areas had probably been achieved

The key driver for improved school attendance was legislation in 1908 that made education for children 8-11 mandatory and free. By 1914 attendance had reached 60% of those eligible, which was short of universal education, but the trend suggests it was achievable by the end of the decade.

We should tread carefully here. Germany engaged in far more foreign trade than Russia and any use of trade statistics is suspect. Russia didn't export much but also produced most of its own industrial goods. German numbers are distorted by using gross production numbers as Germany imported far more of her raw materials than Russia We also have to remember that we are talking about factory production and much of Russia's manufactured goods were made in the village. About twice as many Russians worked in village craft industries as factories

Access to raw materials and industrial production/capacity are two separate matters and including the material value of manufactured goods is entirely appropriate, with input raw materials also being reflected by Germany as imports. I would expect statistics of exports of manufactured goods would include all sources including villages. The fact was that Russian production of manufactured goods was still not very competitive and Imperial Russia still imported far more industrial goods than it exported.

 

[Catsmate]

So, who will a Fascist Russia ally with?

Given that a "Fascist" regime in Russia will release several kiloflutters[1] worth of changes it'll depend on what happens elsewhere. Mussolini's takeover in Italy was a low probability success so it could well not happen. As the OP suggests the Germans still lose WW1 we can assume certain general trends. POland will be authoritarian and right-wing, Germany could be anything from communist to social democrat, Britain could have experienced a few problems it's own. Something was likely to blow in Spain but what the result is is up for grabs.

In general I'd expect a fascist Russia to be aligned with other authoritarian states and/or those without areas of geo-political conflict.
Russia and Britain were traditional rivals (e.g. Central Asia[2]) so even if they had similar political systems in the absence of a common threat (the Nazi analogue) I could see them being hostile towards each other[3].
Japan is a traditional enemy, and looks on Russia as room for expansion. China is a possibility.


Now in my EDC Russia had few allies[4] because their ideology was heavily intermingled with a Slavic superiority doctrine and Eastern Orthodox christianity. Northern Italy was somewhat sympathetic but impotent give the Franco-German alliance. Greece's fascists didn't last long, Croatia was mostly irrelevant, the UK wasn't interested (and was going through it's own Troubles[5] and a number of monarchs[6]).








[1] A term I've just invented.
[2] Though given the weakness of the White state alluded to in he OP the Mad Baron could have carved out a longer lasting niche for himself. At least until the fascists decide to remove him, which could trigger British concern.
[3] A really off-the-wall possibility is a successful Blueshirt coup in Ireland leaving O'Duffy allied to a Russia hostile to Britain and Ireland used as a Russian base.
[4] But lots of enemies. And mass graves.
[5] The Time of Troubles in Britain 1940-1944 was a Civil War. Discuss. [40 marks]
[6] Summarise briefly the major theories surrounding the death of Edward VIII in October 1941 with reference to his succession by his brother, the last King of England. [20 marks].

 

[Whiteshore]

[2] Though given the weakness of the White state alluded to in he OP the Mad Baron could have carved out a longer lasting niche for himself. At least until the fascists decide to remove him, which could trigger British concern.

Well, unlike it's German "counterpart" (the Weimar Republic), the weak Russian republic which limps along during the '20s and falls to fascism due to the alt-Great Depression doesn't have a military which had been emasculated due to a harsh peace treaty.

 

[Catsmate]

Well, unlike it's German "counterpart" (the Weimar Republic), the weak Russian republic which limps along during the '20s and falls to fascism due to the alt-Great Depression doesn't have a military which had been emasculated due to a harsh peace treaty.

True. But they do have a lot of internal problems; irredentist Reds, local warlords, civil unrest due to ethnic/religious differences, unrest caused by food shortages et cetera. Plus a weak central government, a lack of economic capacity and general tiredness due to the lengthy fighting. I could see von Ungern-Sternberg hanging on simply due to being nominally White (though a monarchist) and too much trouble for little gain, at least in the scenario suggested in the OP.

Especially if the author exercises fiat and uses the place as a setting[1].


[1] Seriously how could I resist? It's the perfect setting for Whovian weirdness with a Lovecraftian touch...

 

[Aphrodite]

Well, unlike it's German "counterpart" (the Weimar Republic), the weak Russian republic which limps along during the '20s and falls to fascism due to the alt-Great Depression doesn't have a military which had been emasculated due to a harsh peace treaty.

Nor would they have any real threats. Russia would not have a strong France but just a collection of very small weak powers that could easily be picked off. Poland is the only thing that resembles a major power and against Russia, they are nothing. A fascist Russia should be able to find plenty of allies withing the countries bordering her through appeals to Slavic and Orthodox unity. There would also be those who lost out after the collapse of the Russian Empire

Only after the Russians retook Poland would they face a powerful neighbor but allying with France against the Germans would be easy to do

 

[Kung Fucious]

So, who will a Fascist Russia ally with?

Depending on how things shake out, France would actually be a pretty natural ally. A *Fascist Russia would certainly have some kind of bone to pick with Germany, even if it's only to "avenge" Brest-Litovsk. France is going to have a mad on for Germany no matter what, and in the absence of the Soviet Union they'll be less likely to cut Germany some slack as the "bulwark" against Communism.

Of course, if *Fascist Russia goes hogwild and spends the 30's "reuniting" the Russian Empire (so, gobbling up Ukraine, the Caucuses, Belarus, Poland, and the Baltics, probably in that order), who knows.