In the ten years since the 1994 federal election, Canadian politics had undergone many changes. The Conservatives, who opted to drop the “progressive” moniker come 1999, had been defeated after a decade in power, first under Brian Mulroney and then Jean Charest. Paul Martin was poised to implement a radical agenda of cuts, but instead became the first Canadian leader to be assassinated, throwing the country into uncertainty. Herb Gray provided immediate stability. Allan Rock mishandled boondoggles and suffered the consequences. Pierre Pettigrew provided the Liberals renewed popularity and a majority, and seemed poised to continue Liberal Party dominance into the next decade. Who would stop them? The Bloc Quebecois was restricted to Quebec, and after losing both the 1995 referendum and their brethren’s provincial defeat, they appeared to be no significant threat. The New Democrats were perpetually in the political wilderness, their only success limited to provincial elections. Reform? Beat up, broke, and under constant threat of being absorbed by the Tories, who in turn appeared to be in trouble of their own. On paper, Gary Filmon was the perfect candidate. Successful Premier, experience balancing a budget, slayer of a more charismatic opponent, it was all there. Unfortunately, his provincial record came back to haunt him and the Conservatives, dashing their hopes of ending the Liberal’s hold on parliament. But further changes had occurred since then.
For instance, most of the political parties were headed by new leaders coming into 2004. Although he had led them amiably following the sudden and shocking death of separatist icon Lucien Bouchard, Michel Gauthier had failed to grow the party in any meaningful way. He would be replaced by his deputy leader, the fiery Gilles Duceppe. The Tories had ditched one fiscally conservative provincial politician in favour of another fiscally conservative provincial politician, only this time from Alberta. Jim Dinning was the architect of the Klein Revolution, having turned a growing economic and budgetary crisis into one of the healthiest markets in the entire country. He had swiftly dispatched more than a dozen opponents to narrowly claim the Tory crown, but voters still worried that both the Tories and the new leader of the opposition was too conservative for the average Canadian voter. His handling of the Same-Sex Marriage Bill in parliament had certainly earned him some critics in the media and across the country. Despite all of this, Dinning was still able to capture the seat of Calgary Southwest from the retiring Preston Manning, who had opted to abandon his seat in favour of the new Conservative leader than wait another two years sitting with a party that had, he felt, betrayed him and his allies. Aside from Pettigrew, it appeared the only leader with staying power was Lorne Nystrom. The longest serving party leader in the House of Commons, Nystrom had oversaw only minor gains after taking over from his predecessor, Audrey McLaughlin. But he had kept the increasingly fractured party together for nine years, managing both the moderates and the growing number of left-wingers disenchanted with his leadership. Those with the connections and the political understanding had begun to openly wonder what would occur after the Saskatchewan MP stepped down from the leadership, which he had signaled was soon coming. After the 2004 campaign, the New Democrats would no doubt begin their search for a new leader.
What of the Liberals and their record? Certainly, the government had suffered scandals and resignations, but Pierre Pettigrew still topped the polls and was the preferred choice as Prime Minister by the public. But his sheen had dirtied since his majority victory four years earlier. Relations between the predominantly centre-right provincial governments, like Ontario, Alberta, and Quebec, and the centre-left Prime Minister had grown contentious over the years. Small breakthroughs were made with respect to healthcare, but Pettigrew’s plans for a Pan-Canadian climate deal had been dismissed by his provincial counterparts, who were more concerned with their economies rather than ceding more power to Ottawa. The Prime Minister had garnered the reputation of being a macromanager, the type more interested in visions and the end results than actually getting there. Getting there was the job of his cabinet ministers, who were often left to explain the government’s positions without significant help from the PMO. There was also the matter of his vacations and his frequent use of taxpayer’s money to fuel them. Drivers, pilots, and entire entourages were rumoured to have been paid on the taxpayer’s dime to accompany the Prime Minister on various travels, both official and unofficial. His critics charged that it smacked of a major scandal, of the Prime Minister lining his own pockets, enjoying a luxurious life on other people’s money. Still, the Prime Minister had achieved some accomplishments in his tenure. The aforementioned healthcare deal with the provinces had alluded his predecessors. The passage of Same-Sex Marriage was heralded as a milestone in Canadian history. His relationship with world leaders, specifically Presidents Gore and Juppe, had appeared to strengthen Canadian influence on the world stage at a time of conflict, tension, and paranoia. As was always the case, voters liked the idea of Canada wielding influence on the world stage, of standing tall as a uniquely “progressive” North American nation. Voters disagreed with the government’s handling of the economy, which had remained relatively weak since the 90s recession, but liked Pettigrew personally, dilatant he may have been.
The campaign initially seemed to be a rerun of the 2000 federal campaign. Pettigrew, speaking of his Trudeau-esque vision for the country’s bright future, facing off against a western Conservative leader who called for balanced budgets and renewed economic prosperity. Polls showed that the Liberals were still favoured to win, but the size of their victory was in doubt. Jim Dinning had undergone a cross-country tour since becoming Tory chief, and had made the necessary connections with his party faithful from Saint John’s to Vancouver. The trouble was striking the winning balance between keeping the country’s right-wing voters, who had only recently begun to return to the party, and reach out to the more ideologically mushy voters elsewhere. For the fifth-straight election, the Tories were forced to spend already scarce resources and legislated funding in the West, money that could have otherwise gone to campaigns and candidates east of Manitoba. But before the Tories could form government, they had to finally dispatch Reform, who still commanded twenty-five seats in the House of Commons, a majority of which from Alberta. The first mission of the Tory war room was to finally break Reform. Luckily, polls seemed to favour their endeavour, as westerners of every conservative orientation had grown tired of the now decade-long rule of the Liberal Party of Canada.
As for the Liberals, their campaign was designed around a classic strategy; hope and fear, otherwise known as the carrot and the stick. Pierre Pettigrew would be the face of hope, doling out promises of increased spending on things voters cared about, like healthcare and infrastructure, and making the political process more open and transparent, despite criticisms that he had actually done the opposite in the latter regard while in power. Meanwhile, well-known cabinet ministers and Liberal talking heads would go on national media and play to voter’s fears. Some fear would be more general, such as accusing the Tories of wanting to cut everything and making it harder for little old grandmas to get by. Other uses of fear were far more specific, and almost exclusively directed towards the New Democrats. Everyone knew Lorne Nystrom was on the way out. The only party that NDP voters hated more than the Liberals was the Conservatives, as well as Reform, and playing up the fear of a Conservative government, or even a Conservative-Reform coalition would hopefully scare enough of them to hold their noses and cast heir vote for Pettigrew’s Liberals. For the most part polls showed it to be an effective strategy. Although the Tories were in the process of gaining ground, the Liberals remained ahead.
Quebec meanwhile was an entirely different situation. Federalists within the province were divided, and their main champion within the province, Jean Charest, was damaged goods. Although he had won re-election only last year, it had been with a bare-majority. While Parti Quebecois leader Pauline Marois was by no means a popular figure within the province, the new leader of the Bloc Quebecois was. Gilles Duceppe, the long-time deputy leader of the party, had infused new energy into the fledging political party. Charest’s unpopularity meant Quebecers were looking for a new face to represent them, and Duceppe fit the bill. Even support for separatism, once thought dead only years earlier, was again on the rise. Although the battle for Quebec would again be a battle between the Liberals and the Bloc, it appeared as though the sovereigntists had captured the momentum and the imagination of the province’s constituents. As for the NDP, Lorne Nystrom’s only goal was to prevent his party from being decimated. He was one of the more trusted politicians in the country, and was a well known face to many Canadians. With a platform tailor made for Canada’s urban centers, Nystrom hoped to leave his successor with a rejuvenated prepared to continue to make gains come the next campaign, likely in the next three or four years.
The typical rule of Canadian politics is that after a decade in power, voters give the government of the day the boot, Brian Mulroney being the most recent example. Now while polls showed voters had grown somewhat tired of the Liberals, their intolerance for their shenanigans growing, the situation was not so cut and dry. After all, Pierre Pettigrew had only become Prime Minister in 1999, and thus, if one were to follow the established rules, had another five years left before becoming stale. Still, his party, and indeed his cabinet did not enjoy this same luxury. But on the flip-side, some of the more unpopular provincial governments in the country, or at least those parties who had been defeated but were still unpopular, were conservative. The unpopularity of Premiers Ecker, Lord, and others actually seemed to provide some benefit throughout the campaign in a situation that would otherwise be neck-and-neck. Despite all of this, Jim Dinning continued on. Polls showed that while he was an unknown, those who knew him actually liked him. Western voters, especially those in Alberta, where most voters remembered his role in saving their province’s financial situation. King Ralph may have been on the way out, but Albertans liked Jim. But for every step the party took towards gaining the lead, something would happen which would hand the Liberals the lead again. One day Dinning gave a well-received speech condemning the Liberal’s lack of transparency while in power, and the next day a Tory candidate would say something outside the mainstream when it came to homosexuality, abortion, or bilingualism. The price for absorbing members of the Reform Party was that their controversial views came with them, playing into the Liberal narrative that the more electable Tories were nothing more than a blue version of Reform.
Going into the debates polls showed the Liberals lead over the Conservatives anywhere between six to nine percent. Although seemingly more competent than his predecessor, some voters were worried that Jim Dinning was prepared to do and say anything if it meant gaining power. During the five person gathering the expected attacks and promises were made. Gilles Duceppe pushed back against Pettigrew’s allegations that the Bloc was against multiculturalism. Pettigrew pledged $2 billion for Canadian cities, to be taken from the federal gas tax, and the introduction of a national child-care program. Dinning pledged to empower the Auditor General further power to monitor government spending should the Tories form power, and criticized Pettigrew for allegedly abusing taxpayers’ money. Reform criticized the two-major parties for their involvement in continuing the political status-quo. The NDP attacked the Liberals for not spending enough money on poverty reduction and the Tories for their pledge to increase military spending. The only significant moment of controversy came when one of the party leaders announced that they were open to the private delivery of healthcare. Ironically this statement did not come from the leader of the Conservatives or Reform, but rather the Prime Minister. Unsurprisingly the statement provided sufficient ammunition from the opposition to attack the Pettigrew, who in turn was forced to walk back his statement both during the debate and the day after during the press conference. Polls tightened.
As was the case at the beginning of the campaign, no one was quite sure what the results would be going into election night. A Liberal victory seemed likely, but anything was possible. Beginning out in the Atlantic, the Tories made only minor gains, with former MPs Bill Casey and Greg Thompson reclaiming their seats in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, respectively. However a massive blow was dealt to the Liberals in Quebec, where despite the fact they captured more votes, came out second to the Bloc in terms of seats. Ontario would provide the government some breathing room, as the Liberals maintained their advantage in the province, dispatching star conservative candidates like John Tory and Tony Clement. As the night wore on there was even more good news for the Liberals. They managed to keep most of their seats out in British Columbia and actually make gains in Manitoba. By the end of the night it was cleat that the Liberals would be returned to power, albeit with a much reduced minority. Although he had failed to win, the night was not a complete failure for Jim Dinning’s leadership. Despite Brian Pallister’s unpopularity lingering over Manitoba, the Conservatives had emerged as the winners of the popular vote. Gains had been made throughout the country, especially out in Alberta. Where once the Reform could brag their impenetrable fortress, Alberta had once again become the base of the Tory heartland. Nationally the Reform Party had dropped to only seven seats, well below the totals needed for official party status. Even Reform leader Grant Hill had lost his seat. With the gains made by each and every opposition party, pundits immediately began debating the lifespan of the new parliament, and whether or not Pettigrew’s more ambitious colleagues, specifically a well spoken Newfoundlander, would mount a potential challenge before parliament inevitably broke down and a new election was called for.
Once again, Canada found itself back into the unpredictability of minority politics.
(Thanks to @LeinadB93 for the wonderful map!)
Prime Ministers of Canada:
Pierre Elliott Trudeau (Liberal) 1968-1979
Joe Clark (Progressive Conservative) 1979-1980
Pierre Elliott Trudeau (Liberal) 1980-1984
John Turner (Liberal) 1984
Brian Mulroney (Progressive Conservative) 1984-1993
Jean Charest (Progressive Conservative) 1993-1994
Paul Martin (Liberal) 1994-1995 †
Herb Gray (Liberal) 1995-1996
Allan Rock (Liberal) 1996-1999
Pierre Pettigrew (Liberal) 1999-
Leaders of the Official Opposition:
Robert Stanfield (Progressive Conservative) 1967-1976
Joe Clark (Progressive Conservative) 1976-1979
Pierre Elliott Trudeau (Liberal) 1979-1980
Joe Clark (Progressive Conservative) 1980-1983
Erik Nielsen (Progressive Conservative) 1983
Brian Mulroney (Progressive Conservative) 1983-1984
John Turner (Liberal) 1984-1990
Herb Gray (Liberal) 1990
Jean Chretien (Liberal) 1990-1993
Lloyd Axworthy (Liberal) 1993-1994
Paul Martin (Liberal) 1994
Jean Charest (Progressive Conservative) 1994-1997
Gary Filmon (Progressive Conservative/Conservative) 1997-2000
Kim Campbell (Conservative) 2000-2002
Jim Dinning (Conservative) 2002-
† Assassinated
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ATTENTION ALL LIBERAL PARTY MEMBERS!
Do you approve of Pierre Pettigrew's continued leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada?
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That's right folks, I'm leaving the future of the Liberal Party in your hands! This vote will count and determine how this TL moves forward. You all have one week to vote, and the results as of 12:00a.m. AST will be those I work off of. If you decide to keep Pettigrew, he will be the leader who faces off against Dinning in 2005. If you all decide to force a leadership election, well I will post a second poll with the candidates included, and we will move on from there. I appreciate everyone's involvement and support of this TL. Thanks everyone!