So you propose an all Ark Royal class carrier fleet. Six 22,000t ships in treaty, then extra or a new larger design from 1937/38?
Since this supposed to be more about a difference choice using information at the time, rather than hindsight designs and choices, I like it. Imagine that the UK gets a magic eight ball that helps them make good choices, but only within options presented at the time.
These would be all unarmoured but with a decent TPS. Something to bear in mind for any follow up design in 1936/37. Your Illustrious order for six could follow on from this. The armoured brown water fleet carriers for operating within bf109 range of the coast. I'm thinking of the Med and North Sea.
The Dreadnought class Aircraft Carriers
This was a the Ark Royal design of OTL enlarged from 22,000 to 22,500 tons. They had conventional single-level lifts instead of the two-level lifts of OTL. If possible the width of the hangars was increased from 60ft to 62ft. Six ships were built as follows:
- HMS Dreadnought ordered 1930-31 Estimates. Laid down 1931, launched 1933 and completed 1934. She replaced HMS Argus, which became a depot ship for Queen Bee target drones as OTL;
- HMS Marlborough ordered 1931-32 Estimates. Laid down 1932, launched 1934 and completed 1935. She replaced HMS Eagle, which became an aircraft maintenance ship;
- HMS Monarch ordered 1932-33 Estimates. Laid down 1933, launched 1935 and completed 1936. She was to have replaced HMS Hermes, which would have been converted into a seaplane carrier. However, the abolition of tonnage quotas by the 1936 London Naval Treaty gave Hermes a reprieve;
- HMS Canopus ordered 1933-34 Estimates. Laid down 1934, launched 1936 and completed 1937. She was to have replaced HMS Furious, which being 20 years old would have been scrapped. However, the abolition of tonnage quotas by the 1936 London Naval Treaty gave Furious a reprieve;
- HMS Ark Royal ordered 1934-35 Estimates. Laid down 1935, launched 1937 and completed 1938. She was to have replaced HMS Courageous, which being 22 years old would have been scrapped. However, the abolition of tonnage quotas by the 1936 London Naval Treaty gave Courageous a reprieve;
- HMS Benbow ordered 1935-36 Estimates. Laid down 1936, launched 1938 and completed 1939. She was to have replaced HMS Glorious, which being 23 years old would have been scrapped. However, the abolition of tonnage quotas by the 1936 London Naval Treaty gave Courageous a reprieve.
Therefore the situation in September 1939 was ten aircraft carriers (6 Ark Royal class, the 3 Follies and Hermes) plus Argus and Eagle in commission as auxiliaries and the seaplane carriers Albatross and Pegasus.
New Construction
IOTL
The Royal Navy based its aircraft carrier requirements on the number of aircraft the fleet needed and then worked out the number of aircraft carriers it needed to accommodate them. When it was planning for a war against Japan only the requirement was for 360 aircraft to be accommodated in 5 aircraft carriers each carrying 72 aircraft. ITTL the requirement was still for 360 aircraft aboard 5 aircraft carriers plus a spare as one ship would always be refitting.
However, between the laying down of Ark Royal and October 1935 the Royal Navy had reduced its requirement for the fleet to 300 aircraft because multi-role aircraft like the TSR (Swordfish) meant the same roles could be performed by a smaller number of aircraft. Furthermore with the abolition of tonnage quotas it decided that the 300 aircraft would be carried by seven 23,000 ton carriers carrying 36 aircraft each and Ark Royal, carrying 48 aircraft.
The abolition of tonnage quotas allowed the construction of trade protection aircraft carriers. There requirement was for 5 and a training carrier. However, unlike the later escort carriers these ships were to operate on the far seas hunting down surface raiders. They needed to carry enough aircraft to mount a search pattern to find the raider and then launch an air strike large enough to sink it. The sketch designs came out at £3 million each carrying 18 aircraft each (about £150,000 per aircraft). This wasn't much less than an Illustrious that cost £4 million and carried 36 aircraft (about £100,000 per aircraft). Therefore the Admiralty decided to only build Illustrious class ships.
Thus the 14 carrier force was to consist of 10 Illustrious class, Ark Royal and the 3 Courageous class. The plan was to order the Illustrious class at the rate of 2 per year in the 1936-37 to 1940-41 estimates.
Quote Page 130 to 131 form British Carrier Aviation - The Evolution of the Ships and their Aircraft by Norman Friedman
When Ark Royal (Chapter 6) was laid down in 1934, the goal was a five-carrier force of maximum aircraft capacity, all units of which would accompany the main fleet(s). Washington and London (1930) Treaty restrictions on carrier replacement, moreover, dictated that a second unit could not be laid down until 1937.
I skimmed through my copies of both treaties and could find no article in either that prevented the Royal Navy from laying down a second aircraft carrier before 1st January 1937. I can only assume that it was a voluntary restriction placed on British naval construction by Ramsay McDonald like cutting 4 C class destroyers and restricting the number of the cruisers built in the 1929-30 to 1933-34 programmes (for completion by the end of 1936) to 91,000 tons worth.
The result was that Illustrious and Formidable (1936-37 Estimates) and Indomitable and Victorious (1937-38 Estimates) were all laid down in 1937. Defence cuts meant only one aircraft carrier (Implacable) was ordered in the 1938-39 and only one (Indefatigable) in the 1939-40 Estimates instead of 2 in each year as originally planned. Therefore a total of 6 Illustrious class ships were laid down before the end of 1939 instead of the planned 8.
ITTL
The new plan was still for 14 aircraft carriers (8 fleet, 5 trade protection and one training) consisting of the 6 Dreadnoughts and 8 Illustrious class which were to be ordered in pairs in the 1936-37 to 1939-40 Estimates. However, the number of ships ordered in the 1938-39 and 1939-40 Estimates was still cut back to one ship each.
On the other had the British Government imposed no voluntary restrictions on naval construction before the end of 1936. Therefore Illustrious and Formidable would be laid down at least 6 months earlier for completion by November 1939 (instead of May 1940) and May 1940 (instead of November 1940) respectively. Completing these ships 6 months earlier might release resources that allow Victorious and Indomitable to be completed earlier which in turn might have a knock on Implacable and Indefatigable.