bookmark95
Banned
He's still screwed anyways. He's both syndicalist and anti-zionist. He's a walking bulls-eye for the CIA.
Twilight of the Red Tsar
- Thread starter Napoleon IV
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He's still screwed anyways. He's both syndicalist and anti-zionist. He's a walking bulls-eye for the CIA.
I daresay it's pretty easy, actually. At the moment, there's an uneasy equilibrium due to Israel's military superiority over its neighbours and over the Palestinians, in great part due to the presence of the United States. If that were withdrawn, one can easily imagine there being regular, conventional wars between Israel and its neighbours, perhaps even including a few nuclear weapons as both sides devote some resources towards nuclear programmes. One can also imagine the kind of Sunni-Shi'ite open conflict we're seeing now starting much earlier; the seeds of that conflict, of course, were sown long before the 21st and 20th centuries.
It's much easier to imagine scenarios where the Middle East is much worse off than in OTL than to imagine scenarios where it's much better off than in OTL. Sure, you could avert the invasion of Iraq and ISIS, but then you'd still have a bunch of nasty dictatorships like Hussein's Iraq, and quite possibly some serious civil unrest anyway; I think that a regime as sectarian as Hussein's might have ended up in a Syrian-esque situation by now, even without a US invasion.
The worst case scenario is a nuclear exchange occurring here.
And of course, the ultimate disaster for the Middle East is still worryingly possible - the implosion of Saudi Arabia.
1) The leading people will be the Religious establishment, who think that the modern Saudi Arabia is too Liberal, and has to be updated. They are the only people in the Saudi Kingdom who are not the Royal Family and have any support among the people.
2) I hope the Shia who live in the North-East have escape plans when Sunni fanatics take-over the Saudi government. You can be sure that they'll be targeted as the only relevant non-Sunni group in the country, since Jews and Christians have already fled for their lives.
3) The resulting blow to oil prices in the country will be devastating to the world economy. The world easily reverts to recession.
4) The Saudi state simply does not produce enough food to sustain the population. Couple that with an absurdly generous welfare state that the Saudi state generates, on top of a non-existent work ethic among large parts of the native male population, who expect the women and migrants to do all the work. If the oil dried up, the refugee crisis will be brutal.
5) Business will collapse in the neighbouring regions like Dubai due to the resulting uncertainty and instability, which could easily bring outright uprising among the migrants workers who make up the majority in several of the Gulf States.
6) Enjoy having the two most important cities in Islam living under anarchy. Or, you can love the idea of Sunni fanatics completely taking over Mecca, and vowing to kill any Shia who tries to make the Pilgrimage. Sure, you can always just send foreign Christian/atheist/Shia soldiers since they'll be the only relevant military forces with enough power projection to reach the ancient city; I'm sure that won't create an existential crisis within Islam.
7) With the de facto head of the Sunni world imploding, it gives a blank cheque for Iran to pillage around the Middle East to support their proxies. This will only increase Sunni-Shia tensions, and will almost certainly lead to ethno-religious cleansing.
Have you ever wondered why the West support the Saudis? This is why- the alternative is too horrifying for words.
So? May I point to Castro, who had one on his back for some time, and was still around IRL?
I can see see them commensing a nuclear exchange with it's neighbors like Iran and Iraq, now THAT is terrifying on a whole new level.
The West
The West
Excerpt from Syndicalism: A History by Ted Rall
For the Syndicalist movement the Cuban Revolution marked the beginning of a new era. As Enrico Berlinguer put it “The Cuban Revolution is living proof that a syndicalist world is possible.” Cuba became a cause celebre in Syndicalist circles, and the movement was galvanized by opposition to the US embargo. In France and Italy, the homes of the world’s two largest Syndicalist movements, mass protests forced the government to open negotiations to trade more with Cuba. The Cuban Revolution also led to new theories about the goals and implementation of Syndicalism emerging. The most famous of these is Saville’s Thesis, created by British academic and historian John Saville. Saville argued that the Cuban Revolution proved that the best breeding ground for Syndicalism was in the Third World, where “The ongoing processes of decolonization and pro-democracy struggles are rallying the masses and making them realize their power.” Saville’s Thesis was expanded on by French writer and filmmaker Guy Debrod. Debrod claimed that the Cold War would eventually end with one side collapsing due to the inherent contradictions of their system. The Syndicalists should thus work to prepare for that day, working to build Syndicalism in the Third World so that it would become clear that it was a viable system. Once one of the superpowers collapsed the Syndicalist power would then be able to mobilize and help guide the former superpower towards Syndicalism.
Even as they preached about Third World Syndicalism the Syndicalists attempted to create syndicalism in their home countries. The most notable of these was the Cooperative Factories movement in Italy. In 1961 a group of Syndicalist engineers and factory workers in the city of Bologna established a worker-owned factory specializing in paraffin heaters[1]. The USI took interest in this, and began funding other worker-owned ventures across Italy. By 1966 there were around 200 of these “cooperative factories”, making everything from domestic appliances to tobacco products. At these factories the workers voted on major decisions, including things such as pay and shift length. Of course, having to operate in a capitalist system did force the factories to make some compromises on their ideology. For example, there were managers, although they were selected by the workers. Unfortunately, the oil shocks and recessions of the late 60s and early 70s killed off many of these companies, so that by 1975 only 20 or so cooperative factories remained.
In the United States the Syndicalist movement was largely underground during the early 1960s. The government did not recognize the difference between Syndicalists and Communists, instead using the Communist Control Act to outlaw both groups. The largest Syndicalist group, the United States Syndicalist Movement (USSM) was founded in 1961. The group operated underground, with most of their activities coordinated through a self-published newspaper. Nevertheless, the group was heavily infiltrated by FBI agents, and many of its members were in and out of prison during that era. The only bright spot was the winding down of the Cold War in the mid-60s, which finally started to lead to a lessening of anti-Communist hysteria.
[1] This is actually what the Mondragon company (one of the most famous worker-owned companies) started off doing
Ted Rall? You mean that ITTL he avoid to become an obnoxious cartoonist and become a writer? Well the ITTL AH.com political cartoon thread lost one of the worst target...too bad
Seem that the young syndacalist movement it's on the expansion and revolutionary phase, with a seemigly bright future and the zeal of the young. It's very probable that the different experience in the third world and the cooperative factories in the west will cause in the end somekind of scission (as in any revolutionary movement) between 'purist' and 'moderate' but for this moment i see a lot of fight (both political and physical) between them and the communist everywhere
Seem that the young syndacalist movement it's on the expansion and revolutionary phase, with a seemigly bright future and the zeal of the young. It's very probable that the different experience in the third world and the cooperative factories in the west will cause in the end somekind of scission (as in any revolutionary movement) between 'purist' and 'moderate' but for this moment i see a lot of fight (both political and physical) between them and the communist everywhere
bookmark95
Banned
I wonder what kind of social changes will result when Syndicalism outlasts the Soviet Union. Since you can't attribute syndicalism to a dead dictatorship, the Communist Control Act will increasingly be regarded as archaic at best, and oppressive at worst.
Could hippie communes develop Syndicalism?
Could hippie communes develop Syndicalism?
Given the general pro-Zionist aphmosphere, they could look at the kibbutz as model, much like German Socialists OTL.
Fun fact: IOTL Ted Rall has actually written some books on subjects such as Central Asia. I've never read them, but apparently they're actually pretty good.Ted Rall? You mean that ITTL he avoid to become an obnoxious cartoonist and become a writer? Well the ITTL AH.com political cartoon thread lost one of the worst target...too bad
Seem that the young syndacalist movement it's on the expansion and revolutionary phase, with a seemigly bright future and the zeal of the young. It's very probable that the different experience in the third world and the cooperative factories in the west will cause in the end somekind of scission (as in any revolutionary movement) between 'purist' and 'moderate' but for this moment i see a lot of fight (both political and physical) between them and the communist everywhere
I think we've missed something fairly important
I think this is an indication that Egypt and a few other nations start causing 'problems'.
I think this is an indication that Egypt and a few other nations start causing 'problems'.
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This is a very interesting update but nickpicking:
Why did the Syndicalists decide to become a Third World ideology?
While revolutionary, syndicalism is tailored specifically towards industrialized societies and not agrarian non-industrialized nations. You can't have union democracy without labor unions, you know. It's not that I don't think that syndies wouldn't try to get involved in the Third World, I just think that the update that they place a greater emphasis on the Third World when in truth the First World should be their primary target.
No industry, no unions and if no unions then there's no syndicalism.
And it seems that Bretton Woods is still going to face challenges, and syndicalism and neoliberalism* might come to the front as a proposed alternative. BWs might survive as neoliberal ideas are still in their infancy, and thus prevents the disastrous decrease in the quality of life that happened OTL.
Why did the Syndicalists decide to become a Third World ideology?
While revolutionary, syndicalism is tailored specifically towards industrialized societies and not agrarian non-industrialized nations. You can't have union democracy without labor unions, you know. It's not that I don't think that syndies wouldn't try to get involved in the Third World, I just think that the update that they place a greater emphasis on the Third World when in truth the First World should be their primary target.
No industry, no unions and if no unions then there's no syndicalism.
And it seems that Bretton Woods is still going to face challenges, and syndicalism and neoliberalism* might come to the front as a proposed alternative. BWs might survive as neoliberal ideas are still in their infancy, and thus prevents the disastrous decrease in the quality of life that happened OTL.
I'll cover that in detail in the next update (which is about syndicalism in the Third World and Eastern Europe). The short answer is that the stance is opportunistic (the chances of a Syndicalist revolution in Western Europe are thin, while there's a much greater chance in the Third World). To get around the problem you mentioned Third-World Syndicalists modify the ideology to fit local conditions, much like Lenin modified Marxism to fight Russia's conditions.
bookmark95
Banned
Maybe that will be the thing that dashs the hopes and dreams of the end of the Cold War.
In the mid-1960s, apparently the Cold War ends, either because the USSR collapses, or simply because is decides to give up on supporting authoritarian puppets in Eastern Europe.
For a while, an "end of history" feeling pervades through the year 1969, just like in ITTL 1993: America is the only standing superpower, the economy is doing okay, Soviet Jews may be granted their freedom, democracy has reached Eastern Europe, China is rebuilding, etc.
But like OTL, a serious blowback caused by Western intelligence agencies in a Muslim state ends up biting them hard.
Maybe in 1970, Egypt's fundamentalist leaders fund terrorism in Israel and in America, or launch an attack against Saudi Arabia. This chaos triggers an oil crisis, while the terrorism forces the US into a prolonged and costly intervention with a Middle Eastern state.
So the OTL 1970s becomes mixed with the OTL 2000s: a decade of both energy shortages and a costly war on Muslim terrorism/controlling world oil supplies. Not a fun decade to say the least, but there's more.
Like OTL, Japan and Germany and the Eastern Tigers begin their rise as industrialize nations, and hurt America's industrial hegemony. But now, there are two more countries that America has to compete with: a resurgent, and unified China under KMT rule, and a South Vietnam no longer menaced by its Northern Communist brother. North Vietnam's post Ho Chi Minh-leaders, after witnessing the USSR's failures, could also engage in free market economics, again, another thing that could compete with American manufacturing.
There are other unsolved challenges on the horizon: the anti-apartheid struggle, Rhodesia, Portugal's colonies, Syndicalist Latin American resistance to America's heavy-handed policies, Yellow Banner terrorism, neo-Stalinist groups, nuclear proliferation.
Yeah, the 1970s are going to be a very painful decade to say the least, moreso that it follows a geopolitical event that brought joy to people.
That currently seems very possible at the moment however I would wait to see how things develop.
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