Pt 9
Further Details
USA
Whilst Lodge's OTL death date is 1924, I don't view such things as set in stone as many butterflies had been at work since 1918. Should he die in office during his second term, then his VP would succeed as President. Who this individual is would be interesting, but not necessarily relevant for later events
I am thinking of Josephus Daniels as the victorious Democratic candidate in 1928; he has what many Democrats lack, a successful wartime record. Whatever else can be said about the US performance in the Great War, the naval side cannot be so easily criticised, and he escapes the Wilsonian epitaph of having sent Americans to fight Europe's war by being easily able to point to precedents going right back to the early 1800s when US ships served in European waters
We could envisage a somewhat lacklustre remnant presidency for the last couple of years of Lodge's second term, served out by his VP, followed by a 1928 campaign that doesn't really address the problems afoot in the world as tensions rise and the threat of another huge war looms. Against this, Daniels can posit a more active policy, one that builds on US naval precedents without risking the involvement of land forces
He is c68, but presumably in good health as in OTL he didn't die until 1948 and age hasn't really been a bar to the US presidency
Ottoman Empire
Things have not been great in many areas, despite being on the side of the victors in 1918. The feeling that victory was owed to the actions of the Germans on other fronts is a difficult one to shake, and even among the educated classes in Istanbul there is a certain ennui.
The restoration of the battleships Agincourt and Erin by the Treaty of The Hague is mainly symbolic, and though the empire gets up manpower to crew the ships, their actual value is regarded as problematic. The Tsarist empire has ceased to exist, and with Bessarabia, Ukraine, Crimea and the Southern Caucasus lost to it, only Nicolaevsk remains as a major port in the Black Sea, and one which is at best home to a few cruisers, submarines and destroyers. Likewise, the Greek navy has been severely hit by the war (when a large part of it was taken over by the Allied powers) and Greece's loss of Salonika and subsequent abortive war with Bulgaria has robbed it of all likelihood of building up its naval forces. Conversely, Egypt's independence has not removed Britain from the scene, and the Royal Navy, even drastically cut down under Labour, remains too much of a potential threat to ever realistically approach.
Thus the Yavuz, Osman and Reshadieh serve best in the role of symbols of continuing Ottoman imperium.
Ottoman occupation of Armenia and Northern (ie ex-Russian) Azerbaijan is not an easy one either. Relations with the Armenian leaders are never easy, though they remain viable and a certain amount of autonomy is granted to (ex-Russian) Armenia. In Azerbaijan, Ottoman dreams of exploiting the oil of Baku run into financial and political difficulties but eventually succeed, though the economic treaties guaranteeing their German allies preferential purchase largely negates most of the hoped-for economic boom.
Problems with sections of the Arab community in Palestine and the Hejaz flare up frequently, and a war against the Wahabbists of Ibn Saud proves costly and seriously disruptive to rule across the majority of the Arab provinces. It also proves draining as the Ottoman vassal intended to replace Saud is unable to make his rule stick, and Ottoman forces are dragged into an ongoing desert war, which causes increasing resentment within the army
In contrast, the exploitation of the oil of Mosul, Kirkuk etc proves to be a blessing to Mesopotamia and calms internal problems in the Ottoman East, as well as bringing about economic development, the growth of infrastructure and a viable sales policy that begins to rake in substantial revenues for the Ottoman crown, though a large proportion of these end up in military expenditure rather than civil use
Whilst Ottoman rule extends over Asir and theoretically again over Yemen, more careful minds in Istanbul are concerned with overstretch and the danger of what a concerted Arab rising could achieve, especially if it were motivated by external factors, such as any change in the position of Egypt vis-a-vis British domination
Ireland
The birth of the Irish Free State was one of confusion and conflicting aims. Whilst many prepared to fight a civil war, the Labour government of MacDonald declared its commitment to a peaceful solution, so a strange situation developed where rebels on both sides fought against both parties negotiating for separation. On the Irish side, extremists denounced co-operation with MacDonald and demanded all of Ulster, whilst on the British side Unionists denounced the abandonment of the South and demanded a fight against the separatists. A strange civil war was thus fought behind the scenes, in the shadows, but bursting into daylight from time to time with explosive clashes and mainland bombings.
MacDonald's crackdown on UVF leaders hardly endeared him to most of the political elite, but solved the problem in the long run. His use of working class units, mainly veterans of Kitchener's New Army, had the effect of over-riding high-browed sentiment but also raised for many the spectre of a Bolshevist people's army. There was much talk about this, but little reality to it, but it helped add to the alarm and suspicion with which the Labour government was viewed in many circles
Ireland became a self-governing dominion of the British Empire with King George V officially head of state, though he refused to have anything to do with Irish political delegations and let it be known unofficially that he viewed the whole course of events with great displeasure. Britain, nevertheless, retained naval bases in Ireland, and used these as much as it did its homeland bases.
Many on the extreme wing of Irish politics resented this, and made a point of opposing it at every opportunity. By 1929 it remains a hot potato, and one which impacts on the UK's own election
India
India remains an unresolved problem. In defeat, relations are even worse than they are in OTL, and neither Labour nor Liberal administrations throughout the 1920s has been able to properly deal with this. The feeling in many quarters exists that only a Conservative government can properly deal with India and advance things, because every other government is thwarted by entrenched conservative interests which become even more extreme in opposition
The 1929 election is thus viewed with great interest across the sub-continent, but the growth of radical right wing groups on the fringes of British politics causes a lot of unease, and some rather naiive protests in Indian cities, which are hardly likely either to worry the extreme groups or to make them think better of their Indian fellows.
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
