Earthquake Weather: Pop Culture & Tech Goes Weirder

A Node Magazine Special Report
Earthquake Weather
[ May / 1986 ]
[ A Node Magazine Special Report ]
[ Written by Martin Campbell ]


Shinjuku Streets, Tokyo 1985 by CanadaGood, on Flickr


THE HALLUCINOGENIC NEON LIGHTS of the future were obscured by dust and dirt and death.

Nobody said anything, those few originally wandering the sidewalk and people like me coming out of their late night bars or love hotels or clubs—all the joys of early morning Tokyo. Even the hyper-efficient street repair crew a block south were idle, their water-cooled saws slowing down to zero revolutions, I could feel them through my feet between the shocks.

The Big One went off at 2:18 am, 10 April, 1986 with the epicentre just three miles north of downtown Tokyo. Godzilla. The first rumbles were picked up at the University of Tokyo, a pair of students conducting a monitoring test as part of their final project. It measured 1.1 on the Richter scale, nothing to worry about. Normal, even. It escalated rapidly ever after that.

I was in a bar, a few miles away, paying for obscenely overpriced single malt scotch for the salaryman I was using as a source and listening to a particularly excellent jazz band while I was working on an article about a certain Japanese bank that has clearly moved down the list of importance. As we stumbled out I don't think we could have done anything if we had been able to do so, and we were not. We all just watched as Tokyo fell apart.

Tokyo is one of the world's better proofed cities for earthquakes. The city leads the way on, for instance active seismic vibration control using mass dampers a technology which has to started to proliferate throughout modern high-rise buildings. With a long history of devastating quakes the Japanese have placed a premium on modern technology to counter potential outcomes. What Godzilla revealed was the underlying problems of the political system.

I've been living in Japan for six years now and as regular readers of the magazine know I cover pretty much the whole East Asian desk for Node Magazine. As a technology magazine first, and a socio-political magazine second we at Node get much wider latitude than American and European newspaper or television reporters because technology advertising pays the bills for our privately owned company and our non-technological features are there to broaden our demographics. Node has always been entirely upfront about wanting to be the Rolling Stone of technology. So when I get thrown out of a Minister's office for asking perhaps the first real question he's ever heard from a news company I don't have problems with my bosses.

The first skyscraper toppled thirty-eight seconds into the East Asian Big One. Seventeen stories, built by a construction company that happily paid its dues to the local yakuza and its bribes to the local construction officials. Almost no one saw it, streets empty of all but that cleaning crew I was watching within a few minutes, and the drunken salarymen that marked Tokyo so neatly between image and reality. The second skyscraper fell, as best as anyone could tell, less than a minute later. I, and thousands of others, watched that one tumble and skitter, and then vanish: leaving a sudden missing gap in the city that was quite literally impossible to understand at the moment.

I'd like to cover two things in this. Why Japan, as you've heard from more frequently published sources than a monthly magazine like Node, is in political chaos and the technology that led up to certain underreported events that were wrongly sensationalized. The Western press is incredibly bad at covering Japan for all kinds of reasons and for different reasons many of them don't grasp technology either.

A French surveillance satellite, leasing two minutes of commercial time to a Tokyo urban planing firm, was the first to get photos. An office tower, twisted, the moment before it collapses; a visible ripple in hardened concrete arcing towards a cluster of low rise apartment buildings; a helicopter caught lifting off skittering sideways towards the edge of the roof. They are instantly iconic, emblematic of the ravening destruction that no one can imagine a modern city facing.

It was 2:22 in the morning according to my painstakingly obtained watch (see "The Underground World of Watch Collectors", October/84) when the building three blocks away followed suit with the distant skyscrapers and toppled across a pair more that were, thankfully, under construction and thus not inhabited. This was something impossible to reconcile, a presented reality that argued with every memory and bit of knowledge we thought we knew. Something that no one had seen in over three decades, a modern functioning city torn apart by forces outside its control. Something, for those of us that were there, that was a fundamental turning point in history.

The first official response comes from some poor bureaucrat, whoever happened to have the most seniority near a working phone in the middle of the night: "The Japanese Government is working hard to deal with the crisis". In terms of government-speak it is, as befits the Japanese, the most bland statement imaginable. It was also false, as Tokyo emergency crews worked with each other via radio independently of higher authority throughout the night—not a single phone line into or out of Tokyo was operational. The lines of official communication rested in the ships dotting the harbour, their powerful shortwaves and finicky satellite uplinks telling the world in snatches of disaster what happened.

The opening lines of this story are jotted in my notebook in shorthand, done blind, while I stare frantically at what's happening. "2:22, street crew is helping evacuation. 2:23, street crew has mounted their saws on a truck, moving towards apartment building to slice it open. 2:26, sirens, somewhere. 2:27, payphone is dead."

The standard fall-back system for telecommunications is that of the satellite, the signal bouncing towards the heavens as undersea cable systems, microwave transmitters, and copper phone lines collapse. Satellites are slow, much slower than a phone line and slower still than a cable running thousands of miles across the Pacific Ocean to the United States. Furthermore, satellites are used to replace those undersea cables when something goes wrong—they are not meant for the BBS population to hijack into. Hijacking, hacking, commandeering: this is what happened that night.

I find a young Japanese man holding a bulky radio, clearly not something standard issue for even those that love the consumer electronics of this country. It is too ugly. He is sitting on the sidewalk, not dressed properly (and this is astounding, for this city) and words whisper out into the air. I sit next to him and together we listen to a picture of disaster.

It started with an underground New York BBS and hacking group, the Incomparables, who seized an AT&T-leased satellite over the Pacific sometime between 3 and 4 am Tokyo time (or 1 pm to 2 pm New York time, 9 April). At this point much of the Western world is still in shock and there are no reliable reports out of the city. The compliant Japanese media has been muffled by the government and Western organizations—if they are reporting—are covering useless things.

The shortwave radio my Japanese acquittance has gradually paints the scene of chaos and police and fire and emergency response that has conflicting and contradictory and infrequent commands from higher up. Centralization and hierarchy do not work well upon a massive blow.

Once Incomparables had control of the satellite they locked it to a Tokyo-based satellite dish that was owned (in a non-legal sense) by one of the few prominent Japanese hackers. This gave the Incomparables a first look at the chaos inside the city, as well as bringing more useful reports of people watching what happened to wider attention. The Incomparables BBS crashed just after 6am, Tokyo time, as they reached both bandwidth and connection limits.

The Japanese people have made an implicit agreement with their government and corporations. Economic prosperity in exchange for not noticing corruption, collusion, and the facade of democracy. At some point of course this must break down, but we can certainly say that Godzilla moved this event rather forward. It's dawn, and I already feel the inchoate rage that will soon be harnessed.

The Incomparables go wide with (very slowly) transmitted fax documents from a Japanese source about the shoddy construction of one of the buildings that vanished. It reveals the skimming by the Yakuza, the convoluted bank loans that cost twice what they should, and the government bureaucrats that signed off on everything in what is obviously a bid for employment at the bank and the usefulness of employing extra people to make themselves look good to their bosses. This is not shocking for us on the ground who make it our beat, but the baldness of it is something new to the Japanese people.

It's noon and the earthquake is over and we are all in a daze. So many buildings are gone the skyline looks radically different. Partial restoration of phones has meant information is flooding in and out of the city now, but in whispered rumours throughout the day it seems clear that the denizens of Tokyo are beginning to hear about the how and why this supposedly earthquake proofed city fell apart.

The local AT&T New York City switching subsystem was hacked at 7:27 am (Tokyo time), presumably by the Incomparables, and their BBS went back up—backed by the full resources of AT&T who, at this point in the narrative, have failed to respond to the loss of their satellite which disrupts Japan-America phone calls and takes out roughly forty per cent of the entire Greater New York's region international phone capability.

The aftershocks are surprisingly low and so after a night's sleep in the emergency shelter just in case, it is without a flicker of surprise that shops are open the next day, I grab coffee and chat to customers. The narrative has begun to form already, relatives in undamaged cities talking about secondhand knowledge of the information the Incomparables are leaking. The leaks are spreading out to other Western media (CNN is, of course, the first) and the shameful glee of Super Japan cut through by metaphorical fault lines that the real fault lines have exposed is terribly hard to watch when I review the footage later. On the surface they are entirely in the right, but for a country that has been hyped as the "Next Big Thing" for half a decade you can see the sober talking heads picking at it.

By 8:30 am (Tokyo) the Incomparables had lost control of the satellite, the switching station, and one arrest had been made. It seemed that the brief flower of of citizen reporting was over. At least some information has escaped into the wider world from the black hole of the Japanese government-corporate access. However the attack on the Incomparables would lead to something more.

I wonder if the gold flecked coffee glinting in the back of my head is now done with, because how could anyone ever serve that again? It was a meeting with a banker a few months ago as I worked on that story I mentioned before, about non-preforming loans and their effect on the Japanese technology sector. That story is still coming, and it's a lot bigger now.


In the aftermath of the AT&T crash it became clear that the best hackers and the various BBS they inhabited had often collected information for information's sake, tucking it away as a quiet proof of how good they were. This became abundantly clear from 8 am to 10 am Tokyo time as a collection of hackers took it upon themselves to support the Incomparables.

Although AT&T has publicly refused to comment on the issue, a series of interviews with, yes, those ubitiquous "unnamed sources" reveal that AT&T cut all of NYC out of the American phone grid at, approximately, 9 am Tokyo time under orders from the US government. It turns out that this did not go as planned. By that time the Incomparables, in affiliation with what participants in the event call "every fucking hacker and wannabe in the metro area", had gained access to both the US-UK undersea cable and the New Jersey switching subsystem through social engineering and by physical possession of the NYC station for seventeen minutes before cops arrived and arrested three people.

The Incomparables release a short statement to the local New York media at precisely 10:10:10 am (Tokyo time), reading as follows: "The Incomparable possess the only non-government look into what is happening at Tokyo. We are also the only ones providing the truth. However we figure we're just about done here, so have a nice day."

Despite official responses it was soon clear that the frenzied hacking earlier that day had presented a clear and coherent on the ground picture of what was happening inside Tokyo where news organizations had generally failed and that their leak of internal Japanese documents had radically changed the narrative.


We should return to the beginning.

The first skyscraper toppled thirty-eight seconds into the East Asian Big One. Seventeen stories, built by a construction company that happily paid its dues to the local yakuza and its bribes to the local construction officials. The second skyscraper went down just past a minute into Godzilla and I, along with thousands of others, watched it fall and put an end to the Japan we knew.

That building brought down a government and although we are early the barbarians are at the gates and I can feel building the Japanese equivalent to the French Revolution. Nobody knows what shape this new thing will take, but I do know that the blinders of the citizens have been pried open in the most forceful way possible way. The proposed reforms by the new coalition government are sweeping in scope and perhaps even in effectiveness.

For now all that I can conclude is that the hallucinogenic neon lights of this city that has prided itself as being fifteen minutes in the future are dimmed, but I think we've made another leap down the timeline just as Commodore Perry and the imperial/industrial revolution and the nuclear weapons and the American occupation did to this country.

One more step into the future.



—Martin Campbell is the Japanese and East Asian correspondent for Node Magazine. It is a point of pride for him that he has been thrown out of four Japanese Ministries and that seventeen major Japanese companies have standing orders for their employees to not talk to him. He is also no longer welcome in South Korea. His last piece appeared in Node Magazine February/86 about the yakuza and their associations with the government. He is a contributing editor for The Economist and occasionally files articles for the BBC.


More Shinjuku Streets at Night, Tokyo 1985 by CanadaGood, on Flickr
 
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Directory & Introduction
Directory:


Edited: A small note for new readers. Osakadave and I spend a fairly decent chunk of time talking about earthquakes. After I incorporate his advice I'll edit the above opening post because (alas :)) he certainly knows more about earthquakes than I do. I bring this up so any new readers don't get derailed by that conversation. Like I'll say below, the focus of this timeline is on culture and technology.



I really don't have time for this, but it won't let me go.

Given the boom of pop culture timelines, my interest in technology, the potential for Japanese reform before the bubble pops… well. I've worked on various aspects of those things before, but the pop culture thing sparked my interest in it again.

Bear with me for a second.

Sony bought CBS Records in 1987 for 2 billion dollars[1]. Sony bought Columbia Pictures Entertainment in 1989 for 4.9 billion dollars. The content protection demands of those two sections of the company would critically wound a vast number of future Sony products. The latter purchase was financed by 5 different Japanese banks: Mitsui, Tokyo, Fuji, Mitsubishi and Industrial Bank of Japan. Finally Canon invested 200 million dollars in NeXT in 1989.

If for some reason the banking industry of Japan is in a massive shake-up there's no particular way for Sony to massively overpay to buy into music & movies, but they could certainly stumble across NeXT. Windows couldn't display Japanese characters properly on a computer screen but NeXTSTEP could. Sony's key problems are that their content side has critically wounded the company's digital efforts, and that they never had much software expertise (especially in UI) which is an admittedly common problem in Japanese companies.

A radically different Sony would change the face of consumer electronics in the 1990s, with alternate sales of CBS Records and Columbia Pictures Entertainment changing pop culture in the USA. (Let alone, say, Nintendo which has just launched the NES in America.)

Given the state of the Japanese system in the 1980s one would require massive effort to change it (to deny, as a side effect, Sony the money they needed). Last time I did something like this I went with an interesting domino effect rolling out of a Gerald Ford victory in the 1976 election.

I've decided to go with a blunter instrument this time around. There are a few reasons for it: I feel I underestimated the entrenchment of the system, I feel (a few years older and potentially wiser) that there were both more and less things wrong with Japan than my previous thoughts, and because this current iteration is focusing on different things I needed… well, a big push. Things Are Going To Be Different™ and this creates both conditions for it and a massive blast across popular culture.

Japan, unfortunately has a number of earthquakes. The recent tragedy there is simply the latest example. I sincerely hope no one takes offence to my using an earthquake as a POD, but this is course AH where I figure we all kill or save a million people in a million timelines before breakfast.

If you look at a list of earthquakes in Japan you'll notice that from 1978 until 1993 there were none. Which is strange. There were two dozen (including aftershocks) from 1993 to the present. There were another half dozen in roughly the same time frame going the other direction.

So why the fifteen year gap?

Therefore, as you've seen already, the East Asian "Big One" strikes near Tokyo at 2:18 am on 12 March, 1986. Technically the POD revolves around Node Magazine existing and butterflies from that leading to an earthquake (perhaps coverage influenced a building, and that building accidentally triggers the earthquake).

This timeline is about technology and pop culture. Underpinning it is a number of political and economic changes, but they'll be lightly mentioned. The above post is probably the most serious I'll ever be.

Node Magazine is a British Wired/Rolling Stone hybrid populated by New Journalism wannabes. Postings will be a combination of Node Magazine and an omnipresent narrator (The Futurist Manifesto has taught me how exhausting making every item in the timeline a book is) similar to, say, That Wacky Redhead or The Power and the Glitter!; indeed those two timelines got me thinking about pop culture, and being asked to talk about technology for The Power and the Glitter! got me back onto this.

[1] Before that it was CBS/Sony Records, founded March 1968, CBS Sony Inc. in August 1973 and CBS/Sony Group Inc. in August 1983.
 
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Any timeline where Sony is cut down to size sounds like my kind of timeline, and not just because I'm a lifelong Nintendo loyalist :D

(Okay, that's almost entirely why, but still.)

Obviously, the industry in which this will have the largest and most immediate impact is the video game industry; you may well have butterflied away the initial Nintendo-Sony collaboration entirely. Perhaps Nintendo, aware of the tenuous Japanese economy, decides to strengthen its hand by seeking a North American or European partner? Philips is the obvious candidate, but I'm sure you could find someone a little more competent.

Naturally, I've got a lot of video game-related requests for this timeline, but if we assume that Sony is out of the picture, most of the chips will probably fall into place anyway, so I'll avoid going there for the time being.

But Sony keeping their hands out of the American TV and movie industries will also have a huge impact going forward. Who will wind up owning Columbia, and its various associated properties (including Screen Gems)? Once Coca-Cola divested the company, it became publicly-traded until Sony swept in. Will it remain so ITTL? For how long? In this era of conglomeration, you never know.

I'm really looking forward to the coming updates! Your promise of a light-hearted tone pleases me, and the possibilities alone make this well worth a subscription. Keep up the good work! :)
 
Gonna put this in the Pop Culture Go-To Thread. Looks great so far!:)

Thanks vultan. You asking me to sketch out some tech changes for The Power and the Glitter! got me back to working on this (which has been, IIRC, five different timelines of various kinds in the past). I'm thinking pop culture "glue" might be the secret ingredient.

This looks interesting. Subscribed. :)

I'll take it! Any other thoughts?

Interesting…

I hope so… :). Ishtar, for example, is due to be released in this period. Let alone the string of stuff in the 1986-87 period. As for technology, well, I've tipped my hand a little as regards NeXT but there are plenty of other things going on. Behold, by the way, the Sony NEWS: it's a BSD Unix workstation used for a little early work on PlayStation games. And, this is the best part, it doesn't come out until 1987 which means I can reshape it however I want (laughs manically).

640px-Sony_news.jpg


Any timeline where Sony is cut down to size sounds like my kind of timeline, and not just because I'm a lifelong Nintendo loyalist :D

(Okay, that's almost entirely why, but still.)

Heh. Mostly I'm avoiding the late '80s bubble fuelled binge of Japanese companies going out with bank loans to buy lots of American assets. One consequence is Sony not jumping into music & movies.

So a smaller different Sony, yes, but one that is potentially a greater threat to your (and my) beloved Nintendo!

Obviously, the industry in which this will have the largest and most immediate impact is the video game industry; you may well have butterflied away the initial Nintendo-Sony collaboration entirely.

The Tetris deal wasn't until November 1986, as a random example. I flipped through my hardcover of Game Over—hence noticing Tetris—and I can't back up Wiki's claims of a 1986 Nintendo-Sony meeting, only the 1988 deal (it doesn't bother to cite a page number, and searching my digital copy isn't getting me anywhere). If the deal does happen, it'll certainly be radically different.

What you don't like the Nintendo Play Station? (Logo from here)
sony_proto_logos_0004_Layer-2.jpg

playstationprototype_ps1_03.jpg

moplay4.jpg

sony_nintendo_playstation.jpg


Perhaps Nintendo, aware of the tenuous Japanese economy, decides to strengthen its hand by seeking a North American or European partner? Philips is the obvious candidate, but I'm sure you could find someone a little more competent

Crickets. It's surprising how few partners Nintendo could find IOTL. We'll have to see.

Naturally, I've got a lot of video game-related requests for this timeline, but if we assume that Sony is out of the picture, most of the chips will probably fall into place anyway, so I'll avoid going there for the time being.

I think I have a pretty good idea of what you're thinking at the moment. It's not that traditional a timeline. There will be different players and things could be quite changed.

But Sony keeping their hands out of the American TV and movie industries will also have a huge impact going forward. Who will wind up owning Columbia, and its various associated properties (including Screen Gems)? Once Coca-Cola divested the company, it became publicly-traded until Sony swept in. Will it remain so ITTL? For how long? In this era of conglomeration, you never know.

To correct myself a little there is still CBS/Sony Records, founded March 1968, renamed CBS Sony Inc. in August 1973 and renamed again to CBS/Sony Group Inc. in August 1983. It was a 50/50 split, and in some form "Sony Music" will continue (they were, interestingly, critical to the success of the PlayStation). However and obviously they are not nearly as powerful as Sony Music IOTL and they don't have backup from Sony Movies.

Much of this is wait and see stuff, but I'll bring up another one you might have overlooked: Matsushita (Panasonic) isn't going to buy MCA (parent of Universal Studios) for $6.5 billion in 1990.

I'm really looking forward to the coming updates! Your promise of a light-hearted tone pleases me, and the possibilities alone make this well worth a subscription. Keep up the good work! :)

My blushes.
 
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Thanks for letting me know you were going to be starting this- it sounds like it should be pretty interesting, I'll try to keep an eye on it! :)

The part where AT&T cuts NYC out of the phone grid is interesting- was that sort of event known to happen at the time?
 
So a smaller different Sony, yes, but one that is potentially a greater threat to your (and my) beloved Nintendo!
Yes, but you and I are Nintendo kinsmen. We have seen our beloved company suffer the trials and tribulations of OTL at the hand of the infidel, and surely you will make them pay for it, now that you have the chance!

Besides, about the only for Sony to be a greater threat to Nintendo than IOTL would be to drive them out of making consoles outright, and... :eek: You wouldn't dare.

Electric Monk said:
Crickets. It's surprising how few partners Nintendo could find IOTL. We'll have to see.
Gee, it sure is boring around here...
Mah boi, this peace is what all true warriors strive for!

Electric Monk said:
I think I have a pretty good idea of what you're thinking at the moment. It's not that traditional a timeline. There will be different players and things could be quite changed.
Nintendo, Sega, and Atari are all producing consoles at this juncture; and sneaking a peak elsewhere, you seem to be getting NEC into the industry as well, so that's most of the major players... I'm very interested to see who else becomes involved in the future.

Electric Monk said:
It was a 50/50 split, and in some form "Sony Music" will continue (they were, interestingly, critical to the success of the PlayStation). However and obviously they are not nearly as powerful as Sony Music IOTL and they don't have backup from Sony Movies.
One of the key sources of the OTL PlayStation's success weakened? Excellent :D

Electric Monk said:
Much of this is wait and see stuff, but I'll bring up another one you might have overlooked: Matsushita (Panasonic) isn't going to buy MCA (parent of Universal Studios) for $6.5 billion in 1990.
Now that you mention it, you seem to be killing the Japan Takes Over The World trope before its time ITTL, which will have some very interesting butterfly effects on economic posturing in this era of Soviet decline. Then again, in the long term, this might be better for Japan's economy, which has essentially been stagnating ever since the early 1990s IOTL. (I'm not nearly enough an expert to guess.)
 
Next up is a look at the videogame and computer industry in 1986. After that, we'll be taking a look at some pop culture: specifically television and movies influenced by the earthquake in 1986 and 1987.

Just for fun, here's an interview with Apple's first designer (the first Jony Ive, if you will).

Thanks for letting me know you were going to be starting this- it sounds like it should be pretty interesting, I'll try to keep an eye on it! :)

The part where AT&T cuts NYC out of the phone grid is interesting- was that sort of event known to happen at the time?

You were one of the most loyal commentors on my previous tech timelines, how could I not ask for your participation once more? :).

Nope, AT&T panicked. To put it bluntly: shit runs downhill. Japan called the USA who called AT&T who… flipped out and overreacted because to be honest mid-1980s hackers are much better than most AT&T employees.

Incidentally the name of the hacking group, "The Incomparables", is taken from a fun pop culture podcast of the same name (they talk about movies, TV, comic books, and speculative fiction) whose founder used to run teevee.org which was a very early and long lasting TV culture website (warning the linked archives are kinda in a mess).

Besides, about the only for Sony to be a greater threat to Nintendo than IOTL would be to drive them out of making consoles outright, and... :eek: You wouldn't dare.

One of the key sources of the OTL PlayStation's success weakened? Excellent :D

I'm not giving anything away. However I've always thought Nintendo would be a more successful third party publisher than Sega. There's a (very niche) book to be written about the amazing output of Sega in the Dreamcast era and their sheer failure after they went third party.

Lol. It's interesting because the CD manufacture was all sourced from Sony Music (7-10 days, instead of ten weeks for cartridges) along with learning how to build client (developer) relations and the Sony Music section of the company was much more nurturing and creative than the rest of Sony at the time.

Nintendo, Sega, and Atari are all producing consoles at this juncture; and sneaking a peak elsewhere, you seem to be getting NEC into the industry as well, so that's most of the major players... I'm very interested to see who else becomes involved in the future.

NES, Sega Master System, and the Atari 7800 respectively, yes. NEC & Hudson Soft IOTL was considering a console as well but of course the earthquake could change that. However there are other potential players or configurations.

Now that you mention it, you seem to be killing the Japan Takes Over The World trope before its time ITTL, which will have some very interesting butterfly effects on economic posturing in this era of Soviet decline. Then again, in the long term, this might be better for Japan's economy, which has essentially been stagnating ever since the early 1990s IOTL. (I'm not nearly enough an expert to guess.)

Sort of? The Japanese government, from a publicity standard, is very very happy if the Western press stops doing "Japan is taking over the world" stories even if Japan is actually doing great. Probably switches to Germany is taking over the world stories for a bit.

Economically this is an early popping of a much smaller Bubble (at one point the land value of Tokyo was the same as the land value of the entire USA) which means the landing isn't as bad as OTL and isn't as badly screwed up as it was. Rebuilding Tokyo and banking/corruption/etc… reforms will also help Japan in the long run.
 
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Interesting, but I have several problems.

I was in Osaka during the '95 Great Hanshin Quake, and the highrises survived quite well. I don't see any reason why they'd topple over so spectacularly in Tokyo 10 years earlier. Most of the damage was from the collapse of midsized buildings and houses and fires. Big structural damage linked to Yakuza corruption is more likely to show up in toppled train lines and elevated highways, just as happened a decade later in Kobe.

I'd expect a firestorm to rival '23 if it's strong enough to knock down highrises, especially at 2 am in March. (It's still cold enough to have the heat on at that time of year, especially in '86 when Tokyo saw a big snowstorm in late March. The heat source for most residences was kerosene space heaters.) Martin wouldn't be sitting around drinking coffee - more likely he'd be walking out to one of the US bases that were designated evac and shelter areas for Americans.

Also, there wouldn't be much actual documentation of the corrupt practices to send - the system just doesn't work that way. And even if there was, it wouldn't be in a form or in locations convenient to be so easily compiled. And even if both of those occured, I'm not so sure it would be all that surprising to many Japanese.
 
I was in Osaka during the '95 Great Hanshin Quake, and the highrises survived quite well. I don't see any reason why they'd topple over so spectacularly in Tokyo 10 years earlier. Most of the damage was from the collapse of midsized buildings and houses and fires. Big structural damage linked to Yakuza corruption is more likely to show up in toppled train lines and elevated highways, just as happened a decade later in Kobe.

Well I've only killed a couple highrises specifically. And indeed ten years makes a fair amount of difference in earthquake proofing technology (the Japanese have pushed the field quite fast, although others are doing more these days). We can take out trains and highways, that's not a problem :).

Okay, with a 7.1 aftershock we get this:
A video shows the moment a fresh earthquake struck in Japan, causing skyscrapers in Tokyo to shake uncontrollably from side to side […] around 200 miles from the epicentre, buildings shook for over a minute.

That seems like a much closer one can take out some big buildings.

I'd expect a firestorm to rival '23 if it's strong enough to knock down highrises, especially at 2 am in March. (It's still cold enough to have the heat on at that time of year, especially in '86 when Tokyo saw a big snowstorm in late March. The heat source for most residences was kerosene space heaters.)

Min. temperature on that day was 3.8 Celsius, but on the 16th (looking for the warmest March day) was 5.2 Celsius. 10 April, if I move the date a little, had a min. temp of 13.7 Celsius which probably takes care of the firestorm problem.

(Martin's British, but I suppose I should move the coffee to the next day :).)

Also, there wouldn't be much actual documentation of the corrupt practices to send - the system just doesn't work that way. And even if there was, it wouldn't be in a form or in locations convenient to be so easily compiled. And even if both of those occured, I'm not so sure it would be all that surprising to many Japanese.

Absolutely true. However some evidence tends to exist (humans live on paper) and a big shake-up like this seems reasonable for some of it to get out.

Surprising… well no. Not surprising. I do think that even the most complacent turning a blind day culture can be woken up though, and if all that stuff they turned a blind eye to helped make the earthquake worse? I think it's possible. Combined with the economic effects (an early "bubble" burst) and political effects (earthquake + economic problems is a pretty big "change the government" thing) I think it's not unreasonable. After all the LDP was briefly out of power in the early '90s. Add in the potential for the Recruit scandal to break early (they went public in '86, and news broke in '88) and I think we have enough elements.


Anyway. The earthquake isn't really the focus (although thanks for the firestorm, if need be I'll shift the date to 10 April as that doesn't make much of a difference) and like I said I'll be covering the politics/economics of it in the background.

Edit: Yeah let's go with 10 April. I also found this neat website that says the heaters can be killed pretty fast in the event of an earthquake and that they're usually turned off just before bed. So I think 13 degrees and 2am works.
 
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Well I've only killed a couple highrises specifically. And indeed ten years makes a fair amount of difference in earthquake proofing technology (the Japanese have pushed the field quite fast, although others are doing more these days). We can take out trains and highways, that's not a problem :).

Okay, with a 7.1 aftershock we get this:


That seems like a much closer one can take out some big buildings.



Min. temperature on that day was 3.8 Celsius, but on the 16th (looking for the w1armest March day) was 5.2 Celsius. 10 April, if I move the date a little, had a min. temp of 13.7 Celsius which probably takes care of the firestorm problem.

(Martin's British, but I suppose I should move the coffee to the next day :).)



Absolutely true. However some evidence tends to exist (humans live on paper) and a big shake-up like this seems reasonable for some of it to get out.

Surprising… well no. Not surprising. I do think that even the most complacent turning a blind day culture can be woken up though, and if all that stuff they turned a blind eye to helped make the earthquake worse? I think it's possible. Combined with the economic effects (an early "bubble" burst) and political effects (earthquake + economic problems is a pretty big "change the government" thing) I think it's not unreasonable. After all the LDP was briefly out of power in the early '90s. Add in the potential for the Recruit scandal to break early (they went public in '86, and news broke in '88) and I think we have enough elements.


Anyway. The earthquake isn't really the focus (although thanks for the firestorm, if need be I'll shift the date to 10 April as that doesn't make much of a difference) and like I said I'll be covering the politics/economics of it in the background.

Edit: Yeah let's go with 10 April. I also found this neat website that says the heaters can be killed pretty fast in the event of an earthquake and that they're usually turned off just before bed. So I think 13 degrees and 2am works.

Even on April 10, I'll expect lots of fires. And even in '86, I really don't see highrises falling. The closest I can think of were the tilted apartment blocks in the Niigata quake in '64, and that was due to liquification rather than the actual construction.

I'll highly reccomend Peter Hadfield's 60 Seconds That Will Change the World, but you'll prolly have to get it via an inter-library loan. It was written in the late 80s/early 90s, and gives a pretty good picture of what to expect from a Tokyo Earthquake. Note that even this early in the bubble, the economic crash will hurt worldwide. honestly, downplaying the effects of a quake this big in Tokyo simply breaks my suspension of disbelief, but that may be my personal experiences coloring my opinion.

BTW, Martin sounds very much like a number of foreign journo's at that time, although a bit more American than Brit to me, so you've got that voice down well. :)
 
(Edit: previous earthquake stuff here moved to PM to avoid totally derailing this timeline over it :), and I'll note whatever changes I end up making on Osakadave's advice; I'll also have the first tech post up sometime today because I didn't sleep well tonight = more writing time.)

On a less-earthquakey note (for those bored of QuakeTalk, hey that could be an AH name for QuakeCon), a small teaser:

What famous space game popular on computers will be coming to a home console much earlier than IOTL? (Where soon relates to 1986.) Edit: Whoops. Did not give you enough time to guess. Next time.
 
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1986 Videogame Rodeo Computer Roundup Event
The 1986 Videogame Rodeo Computer Roundup Event

Now you're playing with power.

(Nintendo Entertainment System slogan upon launch in North America in 1985.)



The impact of the Big One on the videogames and computing industry was instantly and widely dramatic. The popular Nintendo Entertainment System (NES) saw several months of factory production either pile up or simply not built, as shipping had been disrupted and a great deal of it shifted to disaster relief supplies. The growing cries of "where's my Nintendo, mom!" would not only place a certain stress on the psyche of American parents but would also herald a dramatic shake-up in the computing industry. Indeed Nintendo's advertising through 1985 and 1986 and their careful positioning had paid off so well that when they couldn't meet demand… things began to change.

Nintendo Entertainment System
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Sega also faced problems. Their North American launch of the Sega Master System had been planned for June 1986 and that was clearly no longer viable. However they rapidly came up with a new strategy, a Western European "soft launch" in smaller countries (serving as an indirect marketing campaign to the larger European countries) along with several other smaller markets like Australia and Brazil. Those much smaller markets could be supported from Japanese production in time for a fall launch and related costs such as marketing would also be much lower than a North American (supply constrained) launch. Sega was also forced to shelve their already planned advertising push in North America but that proved to be something of a blessing in disguise.

Sega Master System
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NEC and Hudson Soft, long considering the lucrative console market, were confronted with problems as finances dried up with Japanese banks coming under investigation. Their Christmas 1987 plans were on hold and instead they were forced to begin looking for an additional partner. This also forced them to contemplate a complete redesign of their console as a delay past 1987 might leave them facing a new Sega or Nintendo console within only a year or two of launch. Instead Hudson Soft focused on third party game development such as their highly successful Bomberman game on the Nintendo Famicom (NES in America) and began planning for potential first party titles with the experience they were gaining.

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In America, Commodore International and Atari Corporation had spent the last two years locked in a brutal struggle with the Commodore 64 & Amiga 1000 on one side, and the Atari 8-bit & ST computers on the other. Jack Tramiel had founded Commodore and had been forced out, he then bought up the consumer electronics side of Atari (and taken most of the good Commodore engineers) and mounted a vengeful attack on Commodore. This had taken a major toll on both companies in terms of finances. Their joint struggle over Amiga had only deepened Tramiel's understandable grudge with Commodore.

However Commodore thought there was opportunity there. The Atari 7800, although not doing great, had plenty of supply at hand. However the 7800 was something that Tramiel clearly had no interest in pushing, a huge potential missed opportunity against a briefly weaker NES and hard to understand given how key games had been for the C64's success. For the second time (partially spurred by Time's February 1986 Adios Amiga article and the loss of 53.2 million dollars in the fourth quarter of 1985) Commodore reached out to Apple executive Jean-Louis Gassée over taking the CEO position at Commodore and this time Gassée accepted, tired of internal fighting at Apple and wanting something different[1].

Atari 7800
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A challenge was what he found, but he also discovered a way out of it: buy out Atari, consolidate the industry, and push the Atari 7800 (with perhaps a moderate redesign) against the NES. Of course Jack Tramiel would never sell, but this was the era of the leveraged buyout and Commodore International had a backer: Sun Microsystems. Sun had recently mounted an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on highly successful sales of their workstations but Sun was interested in expanding their footprint down from just workstations[2] (and gaining access to both Commodore & Atari's excellent distribution networks) and in the wild and wooly market of 1986 personal computers Commodore International was both cheap but potentially about to get more expensive, once Jean-Louis Gassée began righting the ship with the planned launch of the Commodore 74 (backwards compatible with the C64, unlike most of their line), a cheaper Amiga 500 model, and cancellation of all other computers aside from the Amiga 1000 and C64.

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Jack Tramiel fought a good fight but his own mercurial personality worked against him in his public statements and his penchant for lowering prices of computers when not required was making stockholders (as had happened at Commodore) uneasy. In addition much of Commodore's top flight talent had followed Tramiel to Atari happily, but with Sun Microsystems and Jean-Louis Gassée (both highly respected in Silicon Valley, and Gassée loved by Apple engineers) in charge with—perhaps most importantly—the Commodore board paid off and out of any influence they had a new and safer option. The loss of much internal support finally convinced Tramiel that he was done and although forced out of a second company his payday might have helped make up for it.

[3]

So in late 1986 the complicated step-dance ended with Sun Microsystems and Commodore International merging to form Sun Commodore as well as mounting a takeover of Atari Corporation and the cheap acquisition of Atari Games from Namco to form a new first-party games studio[4]. Sun Commodore was therefore structured like so: Atari the console company (Atari 7800), Atari Games the development studio, the C64 & C74 low-end computers, the Amiga 500 & 1000 high-end computers, and Sun-number (e.g. Sun-1) workstations. Jean-Louis Gassée's main goal would to be simplification and stronger competition in the computing market, and to take advantage of the market opportunity open with the NES lacking supply.

The Christmas 1986 season in the United States was dominated by a barrage of Sun Commodore advertising for the Atari 7800. With turmoil at home Nintendo had been desperately trying to get NES's into America but were essentially filling the pent-up demand, not the new Christmas demand and so the Atari 7800 had a strong second place showing capturing some 35% of all sales in the fourth quarter. Sun Commodore's idea of pushing the 7800 harder than Atari had was strongly validated, and they moved forward with plans for a new console.[5]

The theoretical consolidation of the lower to mid markets in computers (theoretical in that virtually all the computers under Sun Commodore's belt were, in 1986, incompatible with each other) married to a workstation company made plenty of executives at Apple Computers and the IBM clone field sit up and take notice. The C64 was usually the best selling computer on the market in any given quarter and the potential of Sun Commodore as a company was clear.

Nintendo also paid attention, recognizing the global networks of the new Sun Commodore and the success of the Atari 7800 once it had some marketing muscle behind it. In many ways the Atari 7800 (originally released in 1984, after all) was unable to compete with the NES but the low price of the 7800 along with the ability of the 7800 to run ported C64 games and the monetary inducement to developers[6] to get those ports out saw a number released in time for Christmas including Ghosts & Goblins, Loderunner, and perhaps most importantly: Elite.

Elite_org_cover.jpg

The low install base of the 7800 pre-Christmas '86 was actually working to Sun Commodore's advantage, as they had to sell a new controller for C64 games (packed in with 7800s once Sun Commodore owned Atari) and fragmenting the market was acceptable when so few were around before the holiday push.

Updated Atari 7800 Model[7]
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Nintendo's weakness in computer games (as opposed to console games) had been considered by some outside observers to be a problem, looking forward to when they launched in Europe sometime in 1987 instead of 1986 as planned, and as they watched the sales numbers of those early C64 ports Nintendo seemed to agree with and resolved to find a way around their problem. Combined with looking for potential partners for their next console, Nintendo's search (much like NEC's) would eventually settle on a rather logical choice.

Sega too watched with wariness. The European/Brazil/Australia strategy was paying off in sales as every Sega Master System they shipped they sold, and in Europe there was soon a hefty premium on Master System's outside the official launch countries. As such they were very confident about their European strategy but, like virtually everyone, they had also believed—known, really—that the Atari 7800 was a dead system without even a modern (i.e. NES-style) controller. Sun Commodore had changed everything and the computer models under their broad roof were very popular in Europe. As with Nintendo, Sega was soon on the hunt for potential partners.

By the beginning of 1987 the shake-up of the videogame and computing industries was only beginning….


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[1] He was offered the job IOTL and turned it down. ITTL the earthquake disrupts Apple CEO John Sculley's plan to remove Steve Jobs from a position of power (as the Japanese market was very important to Apple) and install Gassée. As Gassée is easily the most political of Apple executives he promptly makes a contingency plan, which seems validated when Sculley reorganizes Apple and Del Yocam (a notorious hardass, who would have reined in the freewheeling Gassée—and began to, IOTL, until Sculley folded like a cheap suit and fired Yocam) became COO.

Gassée's flaws (a love of high profit margins, lots of expensive research programs, willingness to let his engineers fly past deadlines) are things that the 1986-7 Sun Microsystems and Commodore/Atari/Amiga culture can potentially reign in.

[2] Sun Microsystems has always been fairly active in buying companies, starting in 1987 OTL. ITTL the greater turmoil caused by the earthquake is heavily effecting the "Workstation Wars" since Japan was a major customer and Jean-Louis Gassée is willing to be demoted in order to have the resources he needs to take on Apple, the console market, and MS-DOS & Windows vendors. Sun figures a broadening of their market is a good thing for the future. For a handful of people (hi Nicole) you've read a similar Sun Commodore merger story before, but heck I still love the idea.

[3] Sorry about the bad picture edit job.

[4] Atari Games IOTL was bought by some of the employees and became infamous as Tengen.

[5] The Atari 7800 consistently made quite a bit of money for Atari even on low sales, which makes it even stranger that ITTL & IOTL Tramiel never pushed it harder.

[6] This seems like a requirement to link.

[7] The "updated controller" ITTL is basically OTL's European Joypad. However (since you can't see them) ITTL it adds two shoulder buttons to give you four buttons to use with C64 games.

-----

I assume anything people don't know they can look up on the wild world of the internet but if there's anything in particular that's confusing let me know and I'll rewrite a little to clarify. In text links, at least in the above post, are all to Youtube and their wonderful collection of advertising videos.
 
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Just a few questions:

-One of my favorite games is Mega Man. Will Capcom still release the game for the Famicom in December 1987? Or will the Earthquake delay it? (Maybe we can get a certain "phantom" robot master... ;))

-Will Nintendo release the Famicom Disk System?

-It is safe to assume one of my other favorite video game characters, Sonic the Hedgehog, may be butterflied out of existence?
 
At a guess...

The Amiga 750 and 2000 will come out in 1988 with 68020s and the Ranger Chipset*. The Amiga 1200 and 3000 will come out in 1990 with an AGA fully backward compatable with OCS and Ranger and 68030s@. The Amiga 1500 and 4000 will come out in 1992 with AAA chipset and 68040s#. Project Hombre will come out in 1994, which will use SPARC chips for the CPU, Solaris for the kernel, 3d hardware to rival 3dfx and the *Nintendo 64*, and a Motorola/Freescale 68360 microcontroller for I/O and backward compatibility with "classic" Amiga systems.

The Commodore 84 will be the OTL 65 prototype, but with a 65816, VIC III with GTIA and ANITC Logic stitched on, SID II Stitched to a QuadPOKEY and AMY (or if AMY is still beyond Sun Commodore's grasp a PAULA II or Yamaha FM, or Ricoh or Esoniq PCM chip with sufficent channels. Any theoretical 94 and 104 will use either a Western Design 65832 or ARM and be marketed to India, Brazil, and American Schools.

Fujitsu will not be fabbing SPARC chips and instead will instead license MIPS, Alpha, or AMD 29000.

* Optional 68881 FPU
@ Optional 68882 FPU
# Optional 56000/96000 DSP to augment a 16 bit 8 channel PAULA III
 
One of my favorite games is Mega Man. Will Capcom still release the game for the Famicom in December 1987? Or will the Earthquake delay it? (Maybe we can get a certain "phantom" robot master... ;))

As Mega Man had been in planning stages since the mid 1980s it's fairly safe from butterflies. Although I love the backstory of that boss (and some of the art is impressive) I don't know if he'd make it in. It depends on whether Capcom pushes Mega Man out the door faster—in need of some cash—or thinks that Mega Man could be huge, in which is gets delayed for polishing and additions and to build a bigger marketing campaign for.

-Will Nintendo release the Famicom Disk System?

A quintessential "wait and see" answer is all I've got on that subject :).

-It is safe to assume one of my other favorite video game characters, Sonic the Hedgehog, may be butterflied out of existence?

In specifics? I'm afraid so. You'll need to see Thande's Cronus Invictus timeline for lots of Sonic love.

The ideas that came together to make Sonic are still floating around, but it'll be rather different from OTL.


I'm not going into that much detail in the timeline but I didn't know the board had a resident Amiga fan :).
 
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