A Plethora of Princes (11) - A Shock to the System

Grey Wolf

Donor
The 1870s ended as they had begun, with warfare raging across several parts of the world. The scenery may have been different but the bloodshed was just as real to those caught up in it.

The accession of King Umberto I to the throne of Piedmont-Sardinia had been the final straw that broke the camel's back of Savoyan acquiescence. The new Pope in Rome had hardly begun to deal with the difficulties of his position as head of the Italian League, when Piedmontese ambassadors began to push for a secular leadership, a larger role for themselves, some change from the past that would bring the Italian ideal closer to fruition. Although they won the support of many, there were equally strong voices raised in opposition. Fellow rulers, from the Grand Duke of Tuscany, to the King of the Two Sicilies to the Papacy itself asked why they should subordinate themselves to the leadership of another sovereign power. King Francesco II of the Two Sicilies found his position doubly precarious. Since 1848 his two realms had been legislatively separate, Sicily and Naples ruling themselves under his personal union, which under the Italian League had not seemed to be so great a change. With the League on the verge of collapse, Francesco could see the settlement with regard to Sicily unravelling also.

Watching with concern was the new Emperor of Austria, Franz III Josef who had succeeded to the throne after his father's short reign of a few years. With Italian holdings in Lombardy and Venetia, and with family connections to the Grand Duchy of Tuscany and the smaller duchy of Modena, Franz III was loathe to let King Umberto have the scene to himself.

From Paris, King Louis Philippe II watched with equal dismay, but less power. The Radical government which had taken power in 1876 backed the general thrust of Piedmontese ambition, and the role of the Pope in temporal affairs was seen as an anachronism whose time had come.

1879 would also see the return of bloodshed to South America. Already destabilised by the death of King Oriele-Antoine of Araucania and Patagonia, the South of that continent was thrown into further turmoil by a fierce row between Chile on the one hand, and Peru and Bolivia on the other over the nitrates industry. With Britain intervening in Patagonia to support Oriele-Antoine's chosen heir, elected by the Mapuche as King Achilles I, Chile launched into a war Northwards, aiming at possession of the nitrate fields currently in Bolivian and Peruvian hands. The initial phase of the war saw the conquest of the Bolivian coastal strip around the town of Antofagusta and the war become a naval conflict, with Chilean bombardment of the Peruvian coastal cities.

Meanwhile, in Europe, events within Italy had gathered to a head and using a perceived slight from the new Pope in his capacity as head of the Italian League as a cassus belli, King Umberto ordered his army to march on Rome...

Grey Wolf
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
Part 2

What does it take for a dream to become a nightmare ? Umberto I of Piedmont-Sardinia was to find out in 1879-80. Having gambled on the non-interference of the powers he was to lose on Austria. Emperor Franz III Josef was loathe to break Austria's long neutrality in European affairs, but seeing Umberto appeal to Italian nationalism, and seeing a movement begin to rise up in return, Franz III declared war in the name of stability.

Umberto's armies had over-run the central Italian states, and were threatening Rome itself with the aid of a national movement emanating from the Romagna. Austrian intervention brought its own difficulties, risings in Milan and Venice in favour of the national ideal. King Francesco II of the Two Sicilies faced his own demons, the fear that his involvement would tear asunder the personal union of Sicily and Naples. But worse would follow if he did not act.

With Tuscany, Modena and Parma under Piedmontese control and with uprisings gripping Milan, Venice and other cities of the Austrian North, the situation was not good. Rome was under siege and the defenders were themselves split. Franz III focused the Austrian army on the Piedmontese, leaving his own problems in the rear until later, and deploying forces into Tuscany in the hope of cutting the Piedmontese armies in two.

King Francesco II mobilised his armies and focused on the relief of Rome. For most of 1880 war raged one way and another. At times it looked as if the Radical government in France would send to Piedmont-Sardinia more than just morale support and armaments, but with King Louis Philippe II battling every inch, France was dragged back from the brink of full involvement.

By the end of 1880, the Piedmontese armies were in retreat and the Nationalist forces dissipating. But things would not be the same again. Austria remained bogged down in Lombardy and Venetia for several years. Risings occurred in Sicily aimed at separation from the union with Naples. The Papacy had a rebellious realm to deal with, and the new Pope had lost all claim to lead a league of sovereign powers. The League of Italy was dead, and the 1880s began with conflict in the North and the South of the peninsular.

Grey Wolf
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
Since this won't move on without either comments on the one hand, or impetus from me on the other, let us advance

Two main strands can be noticed after the events in Italy

1. Prussia takes advantage of the death of Duke Friedrich of Schleswig-Holstein to annex the dukedom to itself fully now. Austria is involved in Italy and even after victory there and the restoration of the Central Italian states has problems in Lombardy and Venetia to deal with.

2. The War of the Pacific. Its difficult to see why this should go in any way different without outside intervention, and its difficult to see where this outside intervention is going to come from. Paraguay would gain little from invading the mountains of Bolivia (no one knows about the rumoured oil in the Chaco yet) and Britain in backing Araucania and Patagonia is acting to stabilise the Mapuche kingdom not to use it as a springboard to action.

Spain might be a loose cannon here. But even though Carlist Spain is unlikely to have given up claims to S America in name, the government of Carlos VI is unlikely to hacve any realistic dreams of reclaiming land in Peru. The birdshit islands could be another matter, and in the absence of the mid 1860s war over them, its possible that with Chile blockading the Peruvian coast, Spain sends a squadron to the birdshit islands to take possession, which Peru is in no position to argue about.

The next strand will come with Sherman's election and his inauguration as US president in 1881

Grey Wolf
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
Othniel said:
As I said, better put up the Plethora of Princes Synopisis and Summarry.

Its funny, I started doing this this morning. I then ran into the great gaps that were Spain, Portugal and Brazil and concentrated on filling them in which I did as the last posts in the other thread... I don't think I have any other 'missing areas' in the timeline as I did them...

What I would like to do is to get to a certain position and then novelise it from then. The problem is that the world of ATLs always seems to converge into a massive world war around 1910-1920 and I'm fearful that for no good reason this one will too...

Grye Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
Its funny, I started doing this this morning. I then ran into the great gaps that were Spain, Portugal and Brazil and concentrated on filling them in which I did as the last posts in the other thread... I don't think I have any other 'missing areas' in the timeline as I did them...

What I would like to do is to get to a certain position and then novelise it from then. The problem is that the world of ATLs always seems to converge into a massive world war around 1910-1920 and I'm fearful that for no good reason this one will too...

Grye Wolf
Technically there were several things that could have set it off earlier or later. The election of a reformist, um, something that causes the allience system to collasp. Somebody gets too ambitious and gets battered back because of it thus causing a gap in trade that other nations would try to fill. It's more than possible to forestall the big war till 1943 I think.
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
Othniel said:
Technically there were several things that could have set it off earlier or later. The election of a reformist, um, something that causes the allience system to collasp. Somebody gets too ambitious and gets battered back because of it thus causing a gap in trade that other nations would try to fill. It's more than possible to forestall the big war till 1943 I think.

I suppose the thing is the idea that a big war is inevitable. I guess this looks back at the Napoleonic Wars and thinks aha, that will happen again. The whole Concert of Europe thing was aimed at preventing another general war. It was close in 1855, and if the Crimean War had gone on longer (i.e. if Britain and France had been able to agree how it should) then there would have been one. But after the 1860s was a generally peaceful era in many ways, and the idea of a great war seemed to recede. Somehow History has a habit of making things look inevitable after the fact...

It would be quite something to AVOID a general war in a timeline. More wars are avoided in history than are fought. There are more war scares and miraculous solutions than there are declarations of war...

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
I suppose the thing is the idea that a big war is inevitable. I guess this looks back at the Napoleonic Wars and thinks aha, that will happen again. The whole Concert of Europe thing was aimed at preventing another general war. It was close in 1855, and if the Crimean War had gone on longer (i.e. if Britain and France had been able to agree how it should) then there would have been one. But after the 1860s was a generally peaceful era in many ways, and the idea of a great war seemed to recede. Somehow History has a habit of making things look inevitable after the fact...

It would be quite something to AVOID a general war in a timeline. More wars are avoided in history than are fought. There are more war scares and miraculous solutions than there are declarations of war...

Grey Wolf
I think a seris of small wars would be better than a big war then?
 

Faeelin

Banned
Umm, just how did the Italian League work? Customs union, or merely an alliance? Single currency? Did it have anassembly like the German Confederation's at Frankfurt?
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
Faeelin said:
Umm, just how did the Italian League work? Customs union, or merely an alliance? Single currency? Did it have anassembly like the German Confederation's at Frankfurt?

I imagine it to be consciously modelled on the German Confederation, so all of them. I would be interested in your thoughts about what it may have achieved during its lifetime (1848-79) and what the effects of its demise would be ?

I'm thinking that Sicily is going to be impossible for Francesco II to hold onto, as a kind of side-effect.

Grey Wolf
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
Part 3

South America is going to be a key area at the start of the 1880s. During the US election campaign, the Reform Party (formerly the Democrats) make much of the 'lapses' in enforcement of the Monroe Doctrine. Especially of note to them are :-

- British Honduras
- British and French guarantees to Texas
- Britain and France as protectorate powers for Uruguay
- British 'interference' in Araucania and Patagonia
- Spain in the Chincha Islands

After the boost of Sherman's election in November 1880, further voices are raised about :-

- Cuba, where recently Spain has suppressed a decade-long native revolt, and where Confederate refugees have established communities, including ones where slave-owning clearly continues
- The idea that monarchy is not an institution for the Americas - this takes in Miskitia and Brazil
- That after the independence of Upper and Lower Canada, the continued British presence in Rupertsland is an anachronism
- California which many see as a lost opportunity
- Deseret where the Mormon state is still viewed as an anathema by many in the US political establishment
- Russia's presence in Alaska

Europe initially views the rhetoric coming out of the White House from March 1881 as simply a war of words, a letting off of steam. But it soon becomes clear that Sherman's administration has taken more than his plain-talk from his character, and is acting in accordance with the military philosophy he showed in the 1869-71 US Civil War.

The US Fleet, which has been built up during the crisis over the Klondike in the mid 1870s is at its peak. During the crisis a major naval base had been established in Southern North Oregon (around the Vancouver area) and a permanent squadron of ironclads based there. June 1881 sees the dispatch of this squadron to the Western shore of South America, coaling at the UPCA on the way. The Sherman administration's first act is to call for Spain to quit the Chincha Islands, and to offer to mediate the Pacific War between Chile and Peru.

Whilst Madrid reels from this unexpected action, the Summer of 1881 sees the USA send a squadron of ironclads from its Atlantic Fleet to the River Plate. Ostensibly this is to back up the American community of merchants in Montevideo who complain that British and French ventures get preferential treatment. The presence of the US warships, and the landing of marines during a courtesy visit raise serious concerns in Britain and France.

The visit of the US squadron to Buenos Aires and the signing of a mercantile treaty between the USA and Argentina adds to the tensions. Argentine rhetoric against the Mapuche has been at a high level since the death of Oriele Antoine and the difficult succession of Achilles I. The Kingdom of Araucania and Patagonia calls upon Britain as its guarantor power should Argentina do more than continue the war of words.

In London, the effects of the first six months of the Sherman administration convulse the British political scene. Prime Minister Sketchley's Radical-Reform government is seen to be weak in foreign affairs. In vain does the government point out the gains made in association with the Radical US administrations. It only serves to outline their current weakness - devoid of their US allies, and with the new US administration ignoring their concerns, the British Radicals lose a vote of confidence in the Commons, and King George V dissolves parliament for fresh elections.

The October 1881 election results in a resounding victory for the Moderates, backed for the first time by the British mercantile community. With Disraeli having retired from leadership of the party to take up a safe seat in the Senate, new Moderate Party leader Spencer Walpole forms the first Moderate-only administration. With a mandate to protect Britain's overseas interests, his government loses no time in making it clear to the Americans where Britain's boundaries lie.

Grey Wolf
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
Scarecrow said:
could we have some maps or something? please?

Maps ? Well, I'm in no position to make any myself but I will see what I can find.

http://www.geocities.com/tourtoirac/Map.htm
This is a sort of map showing the Kingdom of Araucania and Patagonia, though the quality is not brilliant.
http://www.geocities.com/tourtoirac/Map2.htm
is a sort of close-up, though its military details are not really relevant to this ATL

If you want to explore the historical details of Araucania and Patagonia this website is very useful indeed :-
http://www.geocities.com/tourtoirac/index.html

It also explains the strange nature of the succession from Oriele-Antoine. Although, of course, this succession was done in exile, I've adopted it for the ATL for want of any alternative !

http://www.geocities.com/tourtoirac/Kap1.htm

I use Sargon's Stronghold's Monarchy board as somewhere to update interested people on websites and information, both with regard to the Mapuche and also about the Miskit :-

http://p069.ezboard.com/fsargonsstrongholdfrm30

and threads :-

http://p069.ezboard.com/fsargonsstrongholdfrm30.showMessage?topicID=26.topic
(Mapuche)

http://p069.ezboard.com/fsargonsstrongholdfrm30.showMessage?topicID=10.topic
(Miskit)

I'm not really sure what else you're looking for. I could re-dig up some of the maps I've either posted or mentioned links to previously in the several threads if that would help ?

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

Faeelin

Banned
Grey Wolf said:
I imagine it to be consciously modelled on the German Confederation, so all of them. I would be interested in your thoughts about what it may have achieved during its lifetime (1848-79) and what the effects of its demise would be ?

I'm thinking that Sicily is going to be impossible for Francesco II to hold onto, as a kind of side-effect.

Grey Wolf

I suspect that Northern Italy would have done the best; a customs union seems nigh ineveitable, and possibly moves towards an Italian Bloc, similar to Napoleon III's Latin Bloc of currency.

Soutehrn Italy, however, would probably remain rife with revolutionaries and Republicans.

Was Lombardy and Venetian part of the League? After all, Vienna was in the German Confederation.
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
Part 4

Together with a confrontational foreign policy intended to push the Monroe Doctrine, Sherman's administration also takes up the long wished-for plan of a Central American canal. The preferred route lies within the UPCA, but the Eastern terminus is at Greytown within the Kingdom of Miskitia. The US puts pressure on the Miskit King, King George III to accept a treaty for the canal.

Britain, as Miskitia's guarantor sees this as another attack on her power and influence. At the same time, the USA is threatening war with Spain over the Chincha Islands, and voices in the US Senate are being raised about Cuba as well. When an ironclad of the US Atlantic Fleet is despatched to Havana on a 'goodwill mission', Prime Minister Spencer Walpole acts and orders a squadron of ironclads to the Caribbean, to put into Havana first, then proceed to Greytown.

King Carlos VI eventually has to back down over the Chincha Islands, and cannot hide the diplomatic defeat. He abdicates in favour of his son, who ascends the Spanish throne as King Carlos VII.

The diplomatic tension on the international scene is eventually solved with the signing of a treaty between the USA and Miskitia. It is studied in detail by Britain, but the sovereign rights of Miskitia are not infringed and King George III's government in Greytown appears happy with it.

The peaceful solution leads to a degree of lessening of tensions. In the River Plate, US merchants are accorded the same rights as British and French ones in Uruguay.

In the Pacific, the US squadron puts into Valparaiso and brings pressure to bear on Chile to come to a negotiated peace with Peru and Bolivia.

Grey Wolf
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
Part 5

Finally found the map I was looking for - I had to revisit a lot of old threads on this board, using forum search and the keyword 'Vandalia and a lot of interestinbg discussion I unearthed.

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/historical/shepherd/british_colonies_1763-76.jpg

Given the state death scenario for the end of the US Civil War in this timeline, I'd see a going back to historical precedent as important.

The new states of Vandalia, Transylvania, West Florida and East Florida as shown in their approximate geographical locations on this map

Of course, what happens to Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, Georgia and the other parts of the interior is a complicated matter...

A gap of ten years between state death and readmission seems plausible, so these four states being the first to re-apply in 1881-2

Grey Wolf
 

Grey Wolf

Donor
Othniel said:
I'd tend to sya they keep their historic shapes as founding states.

Well the aim is to break the allegiance. Keeping the same shape basically says that this state of Jefferson (or whatever) is really Georgia but we gave it another name. Breaking it up, redesigning the borders removes the historical association, which in this scenario is the primary motivator.

I am thinking maybe the coastal states take names from rivers ? And the interior ones from presidents ?

So in the interior we would have Franklin, Jefferson, Jackson etc

On the coast ? Roanoke (can't spell it?) for Virginia. What would Maryland be considering where it is ?

I also envisage a re-enlarged federal district around Washington DC

Grey Wolf
 
Grey Wolf said:
Well the aim is to break the allegiance. Keeping the same shape basically says that this state of Jefferson (or whatever) is really Georgia but we gave it another name. Breaking it up, redesigning the borders removes the historical association, which in this scenario is the primary motivator.

I am thinking maybe the coastal states take names from rivers ? And the interior ones from presidents ?

So in the interior we would have Franklin, Jefferson, Jackson etc

On the coast ? Roanoke (can't spell it?) for Virginia. What would Maryland be considering where it is ?

I also envisage a re-enlarged federal district around Washington DC

Grey Wolf
Well Virginia could effeciently be abosrbed into a larger West Virginia and parts into Maryland. Jamison could be virginia (a warp off of Jamestown), Whlst you start drawing off of inspirations like the middle name of Lincohn or Sherman's wife Maybe a few patriots from those areas.
 
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