A Plethora of Princes - (Thread 7) : A Fire In The Night

1865

The position in 1865, as so far defined

Britain and France are finishing off the war against Argentina. There is being further aggrandizement of Paraguay. There has been recognition and support for the Mapuche Kingdom of Araucania and Patagonia. Uruguay has been strengthened by the victory of its protecting powers. There is simmering resentment from Brazil, who feels that they have been dealt with heavy-handedly by the great powers. Chile has also suffered a rebuff, over Araucania.

In China it is the year of crisis. The Tungan (Chinese Muslims) Rebellion, the rise of Kashgaria, the Sikhs of the Kashmir under Ranbir Singh penetrating into Chinese Turkestan as far as Shahidulla, the Russians as far as Kuldja, as well as their negoitiating the cession of the province North of the Amur, and to cap it all the rise of a plethora of petty states across Dzungaria.

There are great British and French worries that China looks to be in its death throes, and (just as worryingly to them) that Russia appears to be poised to make great gains.

In the United States, President Charles F. Adams presides over a 'big tent' of the left. His administration has a focus on workers' rights, as well as a pursuit of the Indian Wars to make the trails to the lands of the West safer for the people. But creeping in on the tail-coats of all this, is the spectre of abolitionism.

Adams' attempts to push a Radical agenda is wrecked upon the reefs of abolitionism. This also paralyses US policy towards California. Interventionists run up against the free/slave question. Mexico has time to increase its garrison and buy in naval expertise.

There are problems in the Yucatan and in the United Provinces of Central America, which also distract US foreign policy. The first plans for a Tehuantepec canal are mooted.

The Colombia-Ecuador war leads some in the US to look to Panama - can it be annexed by the UPCA ? It would provide a better potential canal route, with the Nicaraguan one blocked by the British protected Kingdom of Miskitia.

But the UPCA is too weak, there is a major revolt in Costa Rice, and the drafting in of Yucatan 'allied' troops to help is causing trouble in Yucatan.

Meanwhile, back in Europe...

Grey Wolf

Hm.. I wonder how long the UPCA will last? At the very least, without major United States of America intervention, I think Costa Rica will break away..

I'd like to see more, please continue?

Imajin said:

Hm.. I wonder how long the UPCA will last? At the very least, without major United States of America intervention, I think Costa Rica will break away..

I'd like to see more, please continue?

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Very good point

I reason that Adams, seeing that the UPCA is a US protectorate is duty bound to help it out. But as a short-cut measure, getting help from the other protectorate, in the Yucatan, looks like a good idea. Its just that that goes rather wrong too. Yucatecan politicans aren't going to be fond of the idea of their boys dying to suppress Costa Rica

Basically, I see it all as rather a mess. Adams means well, but his domestic policy is being hijacked by abolitionists and his foreign policy weakened by domestic troubles

Thanks for the reply. Any thoughts on Europe ?

Grey Wolf

Please someone say SOMETHING ?

It doesn't matter of its a request for more information

Or an oblique comment about something

Or a real commentary

But in order to keep this going I need people to give me that little bit of chevying along, the occasional thoughtful comment or question, something to engage me !

Of course what would be brillinat would be for someone to post their ideas about Europe in this timeline, no 1848, no Crimean War...

Grey Wolf

I have the same problem as well GW, although it's more of fiction than AH..

It's a good piece. I really didn't get a feel for TTL's version of the US, thus me not really being overly concerned on if there will be an ATL version of the ACW. Maybe you could flesh it out and concentrate on one particular civilization with a lot more *personal stuff* as seen in KW3's Decades of Darkness or the Dark Age Thread by Super55. That type of writing is really good- as well as personal bits as exhibited by Faeelin (sp?)'s Prince of Peace.

That's my .02 about the format.

I was interested in the "revolutionary" England but I really didn't have a connection to that either. Some improvements can be seen in the earlier cited advice above. Plus, the "revolutionary" England is sort of...wimpy- I mean- don't get me wrong- I love a civil war just as the next guy- but there was no personal detail within that nation you picked as the point of story/view of the TL. Could you give more details to associate with this ATL version of the UK?

>One thing that I do in my work is to sink a lot of my own troubles and personal stuff into my character- a simple re-configuration to the setting at hand- and there's the character. That's another advice I can give you. Of course, seeing that this is AH fiction- I'm not too sure if it's tolerated- but writer to writer- that's what I can say.

lets See
you had trouble in Britain, leading to a greater Russia, [Involved with the Ottomans], a Greater France [Syria/Egypt]

?So how Does this affect Austria/Prussia & the whole Germany Union Thingy.

You also have Sweden starting It's Industrial Revolution,
Less British interest in Norway, Due to problems, at home. ?no Norway separation movement.?

A greater, more stable Russia, More investment, more Railroads, Development, more Industrialization, More labor unrest, more Social upheaval.

?how is the Italy Union Thingy Coming along?, ?No Garibaldi?

?Are the Balkans in their usual mesh mash, of who's who.?

It's about time for the Ten year War to start in Cuba, ?What will this Spain do about it.?

?Does Portugal still Control Brazil?

Off the top of my head (which is being sneezed off), Greece's standing in the Balkans is going to be pretty high. For a start, they're a kingdom whereas everyone else is a principality (Moldavia, Wallachia, Serbia and Montenegro). In addition, in the Eastern Mediterranean War, Greece gained Epirus and Thessaly.

Without 1848, events in the Principalities will also have gone differently, and no Crimean War will have massively affected that.

The Ionian Islands remain a British protectorate, a theoretical independent state

Grey Wolf

DuQuense said:

You also have Sweden starting It's Industrial Revolution,
Less British interest in Norway, Due to problems, at home. ?no Norway separation movement.?

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For what its worth, I agree to this. Without British support, Norwegian independence is very unlikely. Germany/Prussia supported Sweden.

But, historicaly the British suport was vocal/moral, not physical. So British suport even in TTL should not be ruled out because Britain still should have a domestic interest in Norwegian shipping and timber.

OK, if I don't post something soon my interest will die

I am trying to get the following couple of major diversions, but don't know how possible or likely they are

1. A Polish Revolt in the mid 1860s. In itself its not unlikely, given the antecedents in 1830, but the OTL reason of the emancipation of the serfs does not look too promising in this ATL. Another reason ?

This has side effects including :-

- French support for the Poles brings about a general war

- Russian military advances in Central Asia are halted, thus Khiva, Bokhara and Khokand will survive


2. A US Civil War, perhaps with the elections of 1868 as the catalyst. Adams' presidency has been largely a disaster on the foreign policy front, but at home some advances have been made for workers' rights, and the Indian Wars have been pursued with vigour to make the trails West safer. But the main accidental by-product has been the rise of abolitionism, and its emergence at the front of the Radical agenda for 1868.

The Democrats, split into Northern and Southern factions don't look able to defeat the Radicals, even with opposition rising against them

In this situation, the civil war breaks out and will be a very different affair than in OTL

Grey Wolf

Austria and Poland

Does the Republic of Cracow still exist ? I would assume not, that 1846 occurred and that quite possibly the currents set in motion within Galicia fed dring the 1850s into mainstream Austrian politics. Maybe Metternich would never emancipate the serfs, but he is old and entering retirement towards the mid-late 1850s and another may well do so. One can imagine that the reforms we talked about within Austria previously eventually occur at the end of the 1850s and start of the 1860s. A constitution of some sort, with a more general representation, and emancipation of the serfs across the empire.

Maybe THAT itself is the reason for the uprising within Poland ?

Grey Wolf

US Civil War 1868

This alternate US Civil War is going to have very different dynamics than in OTL. For a start, the United Provinces of Central America will be involved directly, and probably the Republic of the Yucatan to some degree, or at least the US army garrison there, which if it gets involved in the UPCA will be dragged in.

Obviously Texas is independent, and Deseret quasi-independent, autonomous within the Republic of Mexico. California has been militarily and navally reinforced by Mexico, but the worker population may well be politicised by the situation back home. They can thus become an adjunct to the conflict.

Oregon up to 54' 40" is American territory too, whilst Upper and Lower Canada are 'historically' subservient to the USA for the past 25 years. Rupertsland however will have been greatly reinforced by the Labouchere/Disraeli government and exist on the North American continent as a bastion of British power.

I am wondering if it is possible that the civil war will erupt DURING the election, with the Southern states not waiting for Adams' re-election by default ? Also, as he will be de facto president of the Union during the war who will be his VP ? What about military commanders ? Some will be in the UPCA, one perhaps president after the coup against Walker. Others from OTL will be too old, or out of position. But others from OTL will be serving. Of course, NO TEXANS !

Grey Wolf

A general war

Thank you

So, how does one escalate this into a general war ? I accept that it may not be the balance of probabilities, but believe that it exists as a possibility that could happen.

OTL in 1862-3 Russia was actually VERY WORRIED that France and Britain would declare war against them. This underlay a lot of Russia's decision to send the fleet to New York and San Francisco. Maybe its fears were justified, maybe they were exaggerated. But the Tsar saw it as a worrying possibility.

In this TL, France has just fought a war with Russia a few years ago in the Eastern Mediterranean so the precedent is there as well.

In addition, the reason for the Polish revolt could well lie in a more constitutional slightly reforming Austria, who could get involved.

OTL Maximilian was being touted as a potential king for an independent Poland during the revolt. I could certainly see something along those lines for this ATL.

I just has to be able to hang together.

Grey Wolf

I like this timeline so far, and hope you'll continue working on it..
If the Poles revolt in Russia because of reforms in Austria that aren't happening there, a Habsburg (I assume you mean the same Maximilian that tried to become Emperor of Mexico?) King of Poland seems like a distinct possibility.

I realise that the OTL descent into war was slow and to some quite a surprise. I've read about Confederate agents buying stuff off government departments in the North and having it shipped to them. I also realise that South Carolina basically touched off a current that a lot of the others may well not have gone with in other circumstances.

But for the ATL I think we need a war or all interest will lapse. Its the dual demands of an interesting timeline on the one hand and a plausible one on the other. I try to steer a middle course.

I am thinking though that if abolitionists had won in great strides in the senate in 1866 (or whenever, that date seems right for mid-term elections but I dont know how much this is modern and how much always has been), then there have been two years of debate, reaching a crescendoe when it appears obvious that Adams even with diminished support will triumph over the divided Democrats. If in the caucus he is forced to choose an abolitionist as VP then that might be the final spark.

If this is early-mid summer, then the Autumn season going into winter could see the real crux of the matter ?

What if there is a clear division between the US army involved in the Indian Wars which will be largely in Union territory in any potential war, and the US army in the UPCA which could well be Southern-dominated ? The OTL agreement that officers could leave and go to their respective new country if Confederate does not need to be occurring in OTL. It always stands out in OTL, so in an ATL it may well be even less likely. If the presidency has to consider that the army of the UPCA is essentially Confederate it may give them cause for pause... Somewhat like thinking about Franco at the beginning of the Spanish Civil War.

And if the garisson in Yucatan is mainly Union in turn... One could imagine that a Southern leadership would sacrifice the UPCA for their own defence, but the UPCA would not want to be sacrificed. The president (perhaps Forrest ?) would fight to retain power...

Grey Wolf

Imajin said:

I like this timeline so far, and hope you'll continue working on it..
If the Poles revolt in Russia because of reforms in Austria that aren't happening there, a Habsburg (I assume you mean the same Maximilian that tried to become Emperor of Mexico?) King of Poland seems like a distinct possibility.

Click to expand...

Thank you

I will try to - my greatness weakness is that I simply need inspiration. It can come from many sources but silence on the one hand, and stressful day's work on the other aren't necessarily them.

Can you see a way of 'easily' expanding it into a general war ?

Grey Wolf

I'm intrigued. From the sound of things, Brazil, Argentina, and Chile are all opposed to European intervention in South America.

Do I suspect a Latin American Monroe Doctrine?

Faeelin said:

I'm intrigued. From the sound of things, Brazil, Argentina, and Chile are all opposed to European intervention in South America.

Do I suspect a Latin American Monroe Doctrine?

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Interesting comment, I hadn't looked at it like that !

I think its less formal than that - the Argentine opposition goes back to the River Plate war at the turn of the 1840s. That war saw the aggrandizement of Paraguay and Anglo-French presence formalised in their protectorate of the Republic of Uruguay. The death of the elder Lopez in 1862 seemed to give Argentina the chance to be avenged, but they misread Britain where the Labouchere/Disraeli government was pro-intervention.

As a prelude to fighting Argentina, Britain warned Brazil to stay out. This isn't exactly nice and friendly diplomacy but Brazilian concerns over Paraguay's position on the River Plate may have led her to intervene.

As part of the campaign against Argentina, Britain formally recognises the Kingdom of Araucania and Patagonia, the Mapuche state in the South. This kingdom has been under attack, especially from Chile, since its inception. British support leads to a clash with Chile, through proxies, and thus Chilean resentment.

So, I can certainly see your point ! Britain and France have secured their interests and position, with Paraguay, Uruguay and the Mapuche as allies, but in so doing have pissed off the three nations we know as the most powerful on the continent. Whilst Brazil still retains its OTL size and strength, Argentina is a lot weaker/smaller, and Chile its pre-Great Pacific War size, including no South as these are the Mapuche lands.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

The prompt to turn the Polish Rebellion into a general war could be provided by the death of Said in 1863, and the assumption of power by Ismail.

Grey Wolf
I wish I had more energy

US Civil War - Dramatis Personae

Looking at the US Civil War which breaks out in 1869 after months of preliminaries throughout the 1868 election campaigns, one can identify the following :-

President Charles F. Adams
US Radical Party
Re-elected November 1868 by default after the split of the Democratic Party

Vice President Charles Sumner
First time on the ticket
Abolitionist, representing the growing abolitionist faction within the Radical Party

Secretary of State for War
Zachariah Chandler

Leader of the Confederacy
Alexander Stephens

Commander of the Confederate armies
Pierre G. T. Beauregard


I can also see a major role for William W Loring

Grey Wolf

By the mid 1860s the changes in the European dynastic marriages, resulting from a different British royal family and from the higher positions of the Orleans kings of France, Belgium and Ireland than in OTL, plus the Mecklenburgers in Greece, will be starting to have a real knock-on impact.

The British royal family may well be key to this. I see King George V as focusing on children, for dynastic survival, and have already in a previous thread listed some details. To expand upon it now :-

Children born across the 1840s, and will include some girls...

Prince George, Prince of Wales
Prince Ernest, Duke of York
Prince Frederick, Duke of Clarence
Prince William, Duke of Kent
Prince Henry, Duke of Bath

Princess Eleanor
Princess Stephanie
Princess Sophie


OTL, Prince Frederick, Crown Prince of Prussia after 1861 married Princess Victoria of Great Britain. Of course, in this ATL she does not exist, but an equivalent in Princess Eleanor may well fill the same role ?

I will think a bit more on this, but I would imagine she is at least in the reckoning for his hand in marriage, as talk about such things comes to a head in the early/mid 1860s.

Grey Wolf