A Plethora of Princes - (Thread 7) : A Fire In The Night

[Grey Wolf]

Schleswig-Holstein

http://cscwww.cats.ohiou.edu/~Chastain/rz/sleswig.htm

1848 not having happened along OTL lines, one is thinking that the 1846 settlement will eventually be taken as writ across the two duchies.

http://www.btinternet.com/~allan_raymond/Mecklenburg_Strelitz_Royal_Family.htm#24.83

http://www.btinternet.com/~allan_raymond/Danish_Royal_Family.htm

King Frederik died childless and a second cousin by birth Duke Christian of Schleswig-Holstein-Sonderburg-Glücksburg succeeded as King on 15 November 1863...

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

A coalescence of dates - General European War

The reason for my random postings is that I am trying to get a sense of the development of the general European war. Key aspects so far are :-

The Polish Revolt as a reaction to the emancipation of the serfs in Austria in the late 1850s

France with natural interest in Polish affairs, as well as having fought a war against Russia in the 1850s already

Prussia and the German Confederation's reaction to the death of the King of Denmark and his successor's accession to both the kingdom, and to the duchies of Schleswig and Holstein which had been held in personal union.

The death of Said in Egypt and the accession of Ismail, with the Ottoman Empire's desire to regain Lebanon which had split off from Syria in the 1850s and exists as a French protectorate within Egypt.

A cast of characters is also important. In France we have King Ferdinand of the Orleans dynasty, with his brothers also on the thrones of Belgium and Ireland. We have King George V in Britain, but real power in the hands of Labouchere and Disraeli throughout most of the late 1850s-to-late 1860s period. In Hannover, King Georg V, second Duke of Cambridge, rules on a more personal level.

In Austria, there has been a move towards a constitutional approach to government, whilst Emperor Ferdinand remains on the throne. In Prussia, perhaps key to developments, King Wilhelm I succeeds his brother Friedrich Wilhelm IV in 1861. The establishment of his reign could well be important for the direction the war may take.

In addition, and needing evaluating we have the Kingdom of Greece under King George, victorious in the 1850s war by association with France, with dominion over Thessaly and Epirus which is precarious given Ottoman revival and the lack of time to establish their rule. The situation in the Balkans is probably going to revolve around Greece on the one hand, and the Principalities (Moldavia and Wallachia) on the other. Unless Austria wishes to use her as a proxy, Austria will deploy its army to keep Serbia down. Montenegro is another factor, small but capable of influence beyond her size. And there is Bosnia-Hercegovina, whose situation Austria cannot simply ignore.

Carlist Spain, Miguelist Portugal and Neo-Guelphite Italy all need factoring in somehow. Plus it cannot be forgotten that in the 1830s the Netherlands were humiliated by France more than in OTL; Belgium received all of Luxembourg and all of Limburg, and an Orleanist king.

In addition, what is the situation with Sweden ? OTL they were on the verge of entering the Crimean War when it ended. There has been no real analogue to that conflict until now (the 1850s war was an Eastern Mediterranean one and did not see French operations in the Baltic). If Sweden sees its opportunity...

Grey Wolf

 

[DuQuense]

ACW --
what you are looking for is a attempt by northern States to pass some kind of restriction on Slavery, With South Carolina passing a act of Nullification, during the 1866-68 Congress,
Adams makes it a party plank to overturn SC's nullification by force, if Necessary
On Election Day, November 68, when it appears that Adams is going to win, SC calls a Special meeting, and passes the Act of secession.

This triggers other States, ?Does Virginia Join? ?how about Marysland?

If Adams doesn't move Troops into the State before the Vote.............. [Lincoln Did]

The State of West Marysland...........

 

[DuQuense]

?What is the State of Austro-Prussian relations?, ?Didn't they fight several wars in this general Time Period OTL.? how is Italy's unification affecting Germany. IIRC OTL they influenced each other.

 

[Grey Wolf]

ACW --
what you are looking for is a attempt by northern States to pass some kind of restriction on Slavery, With South Carolina passing a act of Nullification, during the 1866-68 Congress,
Adams makes it a party plank to overturn SC's nullification by force, if Necessary
On Election Day, November 68, when it appears that Adams is going to win, SC calls a Special meeting, and passes the Act of secession.

This triggers other States, ?Does Virginia Join? ?how about Marysland?

If Adams doesn't move Troops into the State before the Vote.............. [Lincoln Did]

The State of West Maryland...........

This looks good ! I will probably tweak it a bit. I see the Radicals in the Senate and House as being the driving force and the VP being foisted on Adams who has no choice but to go along with what he realises is a divisive policy. The reaction of the South will be the same, but it gives reason for Adams to vacillate and thus yes Maryland may seccede too

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

?What is the State of Austro-Prussian relations?, ?Didn't they fight several wars in this general Time Period OTL.? how is Italy's unification affecting Germany. IIRC OTL they influenced each other.

Without 1848 relations between the two states are different from OTL, different even from OTL Crimean War. My major problem on trying to get a hold of this is that finding a source for this BEFORE 1848 is almost impossible. I can try to back-work stuff from 1848 but finding out how exactly and how well relations between the two states were managed before that date seems to be a tall order.

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

escalation

As for how things would go, I think Prussia and Austria are the obvious keys here. Austria would be focused as much on the Balkans as on Poland, but Russian moves in the Principalities would act as a spur. Prussia has its own Polish provinces and with the death of the King of Denmark has cause to become involved in Schleswig-Holstein.

Perhaps the war sees Austria do as in the OTL Crimean War, move to force a Russian withdrawal from somewhere without actual war ? But France ends up at war due to the twin pressures of Egypt and Poland. Then events escalate to involve Prussia and Denmark ?

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Request for comment ?

General European War

1862 Polish Revolt breaks out
French sympathies for the Poles result in overt action

1863 Revolts spread to Russian-dominated Rumanian Principalities
Austria mobilises in response to Russia sending its armies in

June 1863 Death of Said and accession of Ismail in Egypt
Ottoman Empire, with Russian backing moves to invade Lebanon and Palestine
France becomes directly involved in war against Russia from this point

November 1863 Death of King Frederik of Denmark
Prussian mobilisation against Denmark over Schleswig-Holstein

1864 France deploys forces to the Baltic


I am thinking that Austria remains neutral, with Russia backing down in the Principalities. It is a neutrality dangerous to Russia, as there is overt backing for the Poles, and intervention in the Principalities.

France could well sign a secret treaty with Prussia, aid it against Denmark in order to secure passage through the Belt. Thus one would see French forces deployed in Jutland, a French naval force off Copenhagen etc. Prussian conquest of Denmark, preliminary to a peace would be followed by French deployment Eastwards.

The secret treaty would also see France able to supply the Poles through Prussia.

Is this getting closer to what I can use ?

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

If Britain and Prussia have dynastic ties (Crown Prince Frederick married to the eldest daughter of King George V) then I can imagine Britain sitting back and watching events, albeit with some concern.

Do people find the Franco-Prussian alliance realistic ?

I don't think I can get Sweden involved until France has established a position in the Baltic, and this seemed one way to do it. Is it believable ?

Grey Wolf

 

[Grey Wolf]

Gonna have to do more thinking aloud with myself or this gets nowhere... Of course, a main distraction for France is going to be involvement in the Argentine war, but after a while their commitment can be easily reduced as it becomes a Paraguayan land effort and a British naval one for the mostpart. Similarly events in China are a distraction but come to be seen through the mirror of the renewed war against Russia.

Britain for its part finishes its business in South America, concludes a tight alliance with the Paraguay of the younger Lopez, and with the Mapuche kingdom of Araucania and Patagonia. One would imagine British forces being based permanently in the protectorate of the Republic of Uruguay, the upgrading of the naval facilities in the Falkland Islands, a permament British mission to the Mapuche, probably soon developing into trading and mercantile settlements. With a self-governing Mapuche Patagonia, any influx of Europeans (Welsh farmers for example) would be handled with less hostility and more compromise. I can imagine Britain pressing for rights for these settlers, but at the same time see them being subject to Mapuche laws and custom.

Britain is probably going to be more concerned about events in the UPCA and in California, than directly in Europe. While supporting France, and Prussia, I can see it wary of US action, and upgrading the facilities in Rupertsland on the one hand, and Jamaica on the other. The Miskit would probably also receive high level delegations of military advisors. The situation of Lower and Upper Canada remains an anomaly.

Grey Wolf