Thanks. There might be an independent Turkestan at some point, but I haven't worked out how central Asia will develop over the next century yet. It could be that Dzungaria breaks of from China, or Russia expands then it breaks off from Russia, or that it joins a greater Turkestan at some point then breaks off from that. Not sure yet though, the ideas are still floating around in my head.
An independent Turkestan would be quite interesting especially in terms of the relationship between China, Russia, and Britain.
Sure. I don't have much specifics decided for cultural development in the 20th century yet, so some discussion would be great. I especially could use people's thoughts on how civil rights would develop, not just nationally but regionally as well. I'm also trying to figure out how to encourage migration to the Saint Louis/Cairo/Memphis area.
Well, the big question remaining to be answered is whether or not race relations, particularly the status of blacks, are better or worse off than in OTL, and by how much. So far Wilcox has said they are more-or-less as OTL, however as most things in TTL they would be neither better nor worse just different. Thus the real question is, how different?
There are two big changes that likely affected how blacks were treated during reconstruction, and afterwards in TTL: John C. Fremont being in power for the years following emancipation, while Abraham Lincoln led the Supreme Court, and the Democratic Party not being stigmatized thanks to the role of Andrew Johnson during the National War and that of loyal Southerners most notably Robert E. Lee (who even managed to become POTUS).
Because there were enough loyal Southerners to keep the Tejas, Houston and Tennessee in the Union it would make it much harder to justify any “the South was right”/”states rights” argument afterwards; even more so because the blame can be directly assigned at anyone who was ever involved with the Liberty Party. The war will likely always be seen as an insurrection by the slaveholding class. This probably made reconstruction much easier for the Fremont and Lee administrations than anything Lincoln or Grant ever had to deal with in OTL. And since slavery still exists in Brazil by 1900, it is likely many more high-up Confederates decided to leave the US after the war, probably due to Fremont’s most radical policies. Thus it can be easily argued that Reconstruction went much better in TTL than it went in OTL, at least until Lee’s death and Burnside’s administration.
However by the last decades of 19th century have likely taken a step back; the silver depression appears to have had much more lasting effects in TTL than in OTL; it brought the Democratic Party back to power, and ramped up populism enough to create a three party system, and flip the role of the Republicans. This must have certainly pulled the brake on any progress that was being made during the Fremont/Lee years. Did it go back enough to be like OTL? Probably not; it change certainly, but it didn’t fully regress.
Blacks, even if marginalized, have likely found a place for themselves in society, especially because TTL’s South, with Ibero immigration, and a milder Indian removal (especially in Florida for the Seminoles), is much more diverse than in OTL. By 1900 black-Americans have probably founded their own cultural centers in New Orleans and Cuba, akin to OTL’s Harlem. From here the Civil Right’s movement will be born.
Furthermore there has been a steady rise of the Catholic Church’s popularity alongside the Gulf Coast were Iberos and Blacks are likely becoming a mix-majority. And the Ibero notion of race (more about class than race) is starting to seep in. How whites in the Upper South will react to the Catholic Church’s rising influence will be quite interesting to see.
All in all it is likely that by 1900 the US is a bit ahead than OTL in terms of equality, and barring something as drastic as the Great Depression happening it should enjoy a steadier course through out the 20s and 30s. So what OTL saw in the 50s could easily happen in the early 30s. I’d even say that by TTL’s World War II / Pacific War equivalents the military will be desegregated; things should steadily improve for there. However, there is still an overall downside for this, class inequality in the US is likely higher in TTL than in OTL and with a greater urban population it might not improve. The transition from race division in society to class division will occur earlier. And if there hasn’t been enough progress in the race department, it could lead to stagnation in both departments.
Oh yeah, I forgot about the different spelling of Korea. I'll edit the update to include it.
The Taiping Rebellion never arises ITTL due to butterflies. I mostly have the increased Muslim unrest to account for the gradual loss of the Mandate of Heaven by the Qing. Anti-Manchu sentiment among the core Chinese areas is slowly growing but has not reached the point of open rebellion yet, since the opening of China to foreign trade was delayed.
Well the Taiping Rebellion screwed up China pretty badly, without it despite major unrest China might be doing somewhat better. Although the Sino-Korean war and unrest that has followed will likely make up for it in the near future.
Also, a few vague ideas I've had.
-Maybe Andrew Sullivan could become a British nationalist composer ITTL and write a new British national anthem.
With everything that has been going on in Britain, something tells me the British monarchy will not survive in TTL to present day. I see a labor revolution happening in the Islands quite soon.
-I found out Sun Yat-Sen lived in Hawaii for a time in the 1870s with his brother. I've got it in my head that he stays in Hawaii and does something, but I'm not sure what. Father of a Hawaiian Republic maybe?
This is cool but why would Sun Yat-Sen bother with an archipelago in the middle of the Pacific where any activity will bring the wrath of Japan, Britain, and California. I say he returns to China and raises havok there, where he can attain more glory.
-Still trying to decide what to do with the Papal Schism. The Mexican papacy will probably want to expand its base in Ibero-America, but would that mean adopting a sort of liberation theology? It seems like that would go against the conservatism that led to the schism in the first place.
I don't think the Papal-schism would do much further harm. The anti-papacy will likely stay as an odd element in the Mexican churches. It might be gaining some ground in the neighboring countries. But it might by now simply be a heretical Tlaxacalan thing.
I think the liberalization of the Church in Rome caused by the schism, and the weakening of its power, might have more interesting effects in Europe and the US. It is likely that this Papacy has been less critical of the Americanism heresy, and thus helped Catholics assimilate better in the US. And it might have spread with greater strength to France and Europe.