If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)
- Thread starter Saphroneth
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Saphroneth
Banned
Hasn't really changed since the last North America map - Russia hasn't decided what to do with Alaska yet.
Saphroneth
Banned
Bit of an aside - electoral vote calculations for states as they currently stand.
States which voted in 1864 but which cannot vote in the TTL 1864 election:
Kentucky
West Virginia
States which are of reduced size in 1864, and the number of House representatives they should lose:
Maryland -4
California -1
Missouri -1
Maine -1
Hence, total electoral vote count as of 1864 TTL
California 4
Connecticut 6
Delaware 3
Illinois 16
Indiana 13
Iowa 8
Kansas 3
Maine 6
Maryland 3
Massachusetts 12
Michigan 8
Minnesota 4
Missouri 10
Nevada 2
New Hampshire 5
New Jersey 7
New York 33
Ohio 21
Oregon 3
Pennsylvania 26
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 5
Wisconsin 8
Total 210, 106 to win.
States which voted in 1864 but which cannot vote in the TTL 1864 election:
Kentucky
West Virginia
States which are of reduced size in 1864, and the number of House representatives they should lose:
Maryland -4
California -1
Missouri -1
Maine -1
Hence, total electoral vote count as of 1864 TTL
California 4
Connecticut 6
Delaware 3
Illinois 16
Indiana 13
Iowa 8
Kansas 3
Maine 6
Maryland 3
Massachusetts 12
Michigan 8
Minnesota 4
Missouri 10
Nevada 2
New Hampshire 5
New Jersey 7
New York 33
Ohio 21
Oregon 3
Pennsylvania 26
Rhode Island 4
Vermont 5
Wisconsin 8
Total 210, 106 to win.
Saphroneth
Banned
A second part of ATL examination - working from the 1864 election is both easy and very hard. Easy because the (D) candidate is the same, very hard because of all the War Dems who supported Lincoln (whereas TTL the Republican ticket is quite Radical Republican).
To gain some kind of assessment of the relative Republicanism of the state under less bipartisan conditions, I'm looking at the House elections over the 1862-1864 period. This is under the assumption that Unionists represent War Democrats.
This suggests that likely strong places for Democrats are New York, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, Delaware, Indiana, Ohio, Maryland and Pennsylvania (with Pennsylvania in the balance). That's a lot of states with a lot of firepower - adding them up the total EVs is enough to win without PA.
To gain some kind of assessment of the relative Republicanism of the state under less bipartisan conditions, I'm looking at the House elections over the 1862-1864 period. This is under the assumption that Unionists represent War Democrats.
This suggests that likely strong places for Democrats are New York, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, Delaware, Indiana, Ohio, Maryland and Pennsylvania (with Pennsylvania in the balance). That's a lot of states with a lot of firepower - adding them up the total EVs is enough to win without PA.
Saphroneth
Banned
Natives in the US are a little better off than OTL, but not much. The US Army's back to Indian Wars mode to some extent, and is larger, but they'll never have the same ability to focus on the Natives to the exclusion of all else that they had OTL and that to a large extent balances out.
They do have the option of quietly moving to Indian Territory in the CSA, though, where frankly things are pretty cool for them.
In British territories, things are also a little better than OTL because they helped out in the late war - so there's a general good feeling still prevailing in what's undergoing gradual transformation into Canada.
(Door opens) Gentlemen, I am Congressman Wilbur P Whifflesniffler and I have come to watch the first test of Mr Dahlgren's mighty gun. I apologise for my tardiness, but the train was forced to come to halt before the station due to debris on the line. Now, where is Mr Dahlgren? And why are you all covered in soot and why is half the building missing?
Saphroneth
Banned
As far as I can tell this one would probably have managed it - though it's not much powder for the gun, so the muzzle velocity would have been pretty low. The 12" 35-ton gun of 1871 used 110 lbs of powder, and the 16" 80 ton gun used 450 lbs of powder. (In both cases some kind of prismatic, so the initial pressure would have been lower.)
The real worry is the Rodman 20", which genuinely does list 200 lbs of powder as the charge and was made of cast iron as well.
What I've not been able to find is any accounts of the test firings, though I imagine they must have happened. But would you destruct test a cast iron gun that took a year to make?
What makes you think that such destruction was deliberate? I must admit that the Rodman test would be scarier than the Dahlgren test though...
Saphroneth
Banned
No, I mean I can't find any accounts offhand of their testing the guns at all, or how much powder they actually put in them. Since none of the guns was used in combat the charge weights given may be theoretical.
Saphroneth
Banned
Hm, interesting.It seems that about this time the Atchafalaya river began to activate.
Should be an interesting little vignette, especially if it means I can throw in PGT Beauregard of the CS Army Corps of Engineers.
Should be an interesting little vignette, especially if it means I can throw in PGT Beauregard of the CS Army Corps of Engineers.
Is there any chance the CSA would just let nature take it's cause rather than the OTL course of spending ever more money and effort stopping the Mississippi switching?
Saphroneth
Banned
I think it highly likely that Louisiana, at least, would try seriously to keep the Mississippi on the OTL channel - a large part of the Hold By Levees policy was driven by those with riverfront property (i.e. planters), and it'd basically kill New Orleans (i.e. currently the largest city in the Confederacy).
The thing about letting the Mississippi switch is that it'd take decades to do it naturally - Old River Control holds off the PROBLEMS, but it sort of stores them up...
Actually, Mississippi River Politics is going to be a tough one, since different states will basically be competing to see which can build the highest levees. (If the levees for Arkansas are higher than the ones for Louisiana, Louisiana is going to get wet. But if Louisiana has them higher, Arkansas is going to get wet... unless the Louisiana Levees have a sudden outbreak of dynamite.)
Making this even odder is that the Union controls some of the major Mississippi tributaries and has partial control of others. By building close-in levees they can actually make things slightly worse for the Confederacy.
Skallagrim
Banned
Surely even in the (presumably) states' rights-obsessed CSA, states affected by this issue can get on with a programme of co-ordinated action regarding levees etc.? I mean... several European countries had to take such steps before the EU really got involved in any of that (back when it was only a union of national coal and steel industries). I imagine two states in a confederal union could work something out, like a two-state "Mississippi Levees Commission" or something.
And that's if states' rights remain popular! It was the Southern hobbyhorse in OTL because they were so damned scared of the big bad Northerners dictating policy (and, you, know, freeing the slaves). Since they no longer have to fear the North imposing high tarriffs, regulating trade, freeing slaves etc. in this ATL, I wouldn't be surprised is the whole idea of "states' rights" just fades out gradually, and the CSA becomes ever more like the USA (in the sense of: the central government taking charge of ever more tasks) than the typical "muh states' rights!"-lost causer of OTL would ever dare to admit...
So after a while, the whole issue of critical infrastruture management might just end up in the hands of the confederal government.
2-30 September 1864
Saphroneth
Banned
2 September
Snagboats working on clearing a blockage in the Old River area of Louisiana succeed, resulting in a sudden surge of water as an old natural dam collapses. Hundreds of logs are swept downstream, and the newly-freed river (the Atchafalaya) rapidly builds up strength until it is considered deep enough for barge navigation.
Everyone involved is quite pleased with themselves.
4 September
Chihuahua falls to Imperial forces, forcing Diaz to retreat with the remains of his army. There is occasional skirmishing with French cavalry (much of it armed with the Westley-Richards) and Diaz' forces take a steady toll of casualties as they retreat northwards - though their occasional violent barrages of artillery do much to discourage too close a pursuit by the French.
7 September
The Charlottetown Conference begins, an important step on the path to Canadian confederation.
8 September
The 8 inch James rifle pattern is tested against the 8 inch Brooke rifle, both of them undergoing consideration for arming the heavy ships and forts of the Confederate Navy. The James proves to have underlying issues with aiming (the gun's rifling results in a consistent displacement to the left of approx. one degree) which it is felt would make it hard to bore-sight, and in addition the weapon is considered unreliable.
The Brooke rifle is a somewhat more proven design, but is still felt to need more work - in particular, of the two under testing one ruptures unexpectedly at a powder load of 18 lbs, while the other endures 30 lbs without rupture. This is taken to mean that the metallurgy of the gun is very variable.
Both arms-makers are able to secure contracts for approx. twenty guns of the current quality, to secure funds for future development.
11 September
Democratic papers begin to publish "The Peninsular Campaign", an eight-part series on a fictional 1862 military campaign based on what would happen if the "Republican Administration" had not provoked a war with Great Britain. In part one, the Monitor (using her 8" Parrott rifle and her 11" Dahlgren smoothbore) defeats the Virginia and thus clears the way for the Federal movement to Fort Monroe.
15 September
General Pierre Gustave Toutant-Beauregard (P.G.T. Beauregard), a Louisianan and Cajun by birth, begins examining the Mississippi river system and levees as part of a project for the Confederate Army Corps of Engineers (which is funded by the Confederate Congress, though in this case it is being hired for work by the State of Louisiana). As part of this work he orders a scheme adopted to improve the channel to New Orleans.
His analysis mentions the Atchafalaya only in passing - it is just one distributary of many.
17 September
A Choshu domain castle is badly damaged by heavy fire from the Ushidoshi Maru, which also defeats the few Choshu ships sent after her (in one case putting a cast iron cannonball clear through one side of the Domain ship and out the other). The ironclad then lurks menacingly offshore as Bakfu samurai land in Choshu domain.
18 September
In part two of The Peninuslar Campaign, General McClellan's Army of the Potomac advances up to Yorktown. The position is strong enough to stymie his men, but - as the article concludes - the Young Napoleon has a plan.
19 September
The war in South America expands, with Paraguay entering the fray and prompting things to become considerably larger and more bloody in scale.
22 September
The war in Santo Dominigo enters a period of diminuendo, as the rebels have burned through much of their stockpiled military supplies and must now attempt to obtain more.
Jesse James and his men are occupied in pinprick raids, his best riflemen conserving ammunition by sniping from 200 yards or so.
23 September
Robert E. Lee introduces a bill for the care of veterans into the Confederate Congress. It is considered with some suspicion at first, but his passionate arguments for it sway several of the Congressmen and it is ultimately passed as a patriotic measure.
It so happens that Lee's own District contains a fairly high proportion of veterans.
25 September
Part three of The Peninsular Campaign opens with a bang, as McClellan's forces (specifically 1 Corps of the Army of the Potomac) make an amphibious turning movement to force the defenders out of their defensive line centered at Yorktown.
Also on this date, the Jefferson Davis is launched - a large ironclad cruiser built at Gosport Navy Yard, and which has been renamed at least twice since being laid down. Much work needs to be done, the armament is still not finalized, and one possibility is to buy up some 110 pounder Armstrongs from Britain for service against unarmoured ships while relying on domestic rifles for armour piercing.
26 September
Under a reorganization, the Confederate States Navy is split into several "stations" - Colorado, Texas, Mississippi Mouths, Central Rivers, Gulf Coast, South Atlantic, North Atlantic, Northeastern and World. (The last of which refers to cruisers not operating within the Confederacy itself).
Each station is to determine their own requirements for their specific operating areas, and then report back to the central offices of the navy which will procure ships to meet these requirements.
The result is a total bureaucratic mess, but one in which a lot of people have a chance to get some skim - and a few ships are even being built.
29 September
The Nevada Scandal breaks in the newspapers, with an unknown source having come into possession of letters from Fremont which outline the plan to induct Nevada into the Union "ahead of the coming Election".
30 September
After hurried negotiations with the Confederate Congress, Diaz and a few thousand of his most loyal men withdraw across the border into the Confederacy (specifically, into northeastern Texas). The rest of his army disintegrates, many of them taking the still-in-force amnesty and others simply going home without bothering.
The Confederate Congress decides to keep Diaz at an arm's remove, with the general but mostly unstated view that a "legitimate" claim on Mexico may be useful at some future date...
Snagboats working on clearing a blockage in the Old River area of Louisiana succeed, resulting in a sudden surge of water as an old natural dam collapses. Hundreds of logs are swept downstream, and the newly-freed river (the Atchafalaya) rapidly builds up strength until it is considered deep enough for barge navigation.
Everyone involved is quite pleased with themselves.
4 September
Chihuahua falls to Imperial forces, forcing Diaz to retreat with the remains of his army. There is occasional skirmishing with French cavalry (much of it armed with the Westley-Richards) and Diaz' forces take a steady toll of casualties as they retreat northwards - though their occasional violent barrages of artillery do much to discourage too close a pursuit by the French.
7 September
The Charlottetown Conference begins, an important step on the path to Canadian confederation.
8 September
The 8 inch James rifle pattern is tested against the 8 inch Brooke rifle, both of them undergoing consideration for arming the heavy ships and forts of the Confederate Navy. The James proves to have underlying issues with aiming (the gun's rifling results in a consistent displacement to the left of approx. one degree) which it is felt would make it hard to bore-sight, and in addition the weapon is considered unreliable.
The Brooke rifle is a somewhat more proven design, but is still felt to need more work - in particular, of the two under testing one ruptures unexpectedly at a powder load of 18 lbs, while the other endures 30 lbs without rupture. This is taken to mean that the metallurgy of the gun is very variable.
Both arms-makers are able to secure contracts for approx. twenty guns of the current quality, to secure funds for future development.
11 September
Democratic papers begin to publish "The Peninsular Campaign", an eight-part series on a fictional 1862 military campaign based on what would happen if the "Republican Administration" had not provoked a war with Great Britain. In part one, the Monitor (using her 8" Parrott rifle and her 11" Dahlgren smoothbore) defeats the Virginia and thus clears the way for the Federal movement to Fort Monroe.
15 September
General Pierre Gustave Toutant-Beauregard (P.G.T. Beauregard), a Louisianan and Cajun by birth, begins examining the Mississippi river system and levees as part of a project for the Confederate Army Corps of Engineers (which is funded by the Confederate Congress, though in this case it is being hired for work by the State of Louisiana). As part of this work he orders a scheme adopted to improve the channel to New Orleans.
His analysis mentions the Atchafalaya only in passing - it is just one distributary of many.
17 September
A Choshu domain castle is badly damaged by heavy fire from the Ushidoshi Maru, which also defeats the few Choshu ships sent after her (in one case putting a cast iron cannonball clear through one side of the Domain ship and out the other). The ironclad then lurks menacingly offshore as Bakfu samurai land in Choshu domain.
18 September
In part two of The Peninuslar Campaign, General McClellan's Army of the Potomac advances up to Yorktown. The position is strong enough to stymie his men, but - as the article concludes - the Young Napoleon has a plan.
19 September
The war in South America expands, with Paraguay entering the fray and prompting things to become considerably larger and more bloody in scale.
22 September
The war in Santo Dominigo enters a period of diminuendo, as the rebels have burned through much of their stockpiled military supplies and must now attempt to obtain more.
Jesse James and his men are occupied in pinprick raids, his best riflemen conserving ammunition by sniping from 200 yards or so.
23 September
Robert E. Lee introduces a bill for the care of veterans into the Confederate Congress. It is considered with some suspicion at first, but his passionate arguments for it sway several of the Congressmen and it is ultimately passed as a patriotic measure.
It so happens that Lee's own District contains a fairly high proportion of veterans.
25 September
Part three of The Peninsular Campaign opens with a bang, as McClellan's forces (specifically 1 Corps of the Army of the Potomac) make an amphibious turning movement to force the defenders out of their defensive line centered at Yorktown.
Also on this date, the Jefferson Davis is launched - a large ironclad cruiser built at Gosport Navy Yard, and which has been renamed at least twice since being laid down. Much work needs to be done, the armament is still not finalized, and one possibility is to buy up some 110 pounder Armstrongs from Britain for service against unarmoured ships while relying on domestic rifles for armour piercing.
26 September
Under a reorganization, the Confederate States Navy is split into several "stations" - Colorado, Texas, Mississippi Mouths, Central Rivers, Gulf Coast, South Atlantic, North Atlantic, Northeastern and World. (The last of which refers to cruisers not operating within the Confederacy itself).
Each station is to determine their own requirements for their specific operating areas, and then report back to the central offices of the navy which will procure ships to meet these requirements.
The result is a total bureaucratic mess, but one in which a lot of people have a chance to get some skim - and a few ships are even being built.
29 September
The Nevada Scandal breaks in the newspapers, with an unknown source having come into possession of letters from Fremont which outline the plan to induct Nevada into the Union "ahead of the coming Election".
30 September
After hurried negotiations with the Confederate Congress, Diaz and a few thousand of his most loyal men withdraw across the border into the Confederacy (specifically, into northeastern Texas). The rest of his army disintegrates, many of them taking the still-in-force amnesty and others simply going home without bothering.
The Confederate Congress decides to keep Diaz at an arm's remove, with the general but mostly unstated view that a "legitimate" claim on Mexico may be useful at some future date...
Saphroneth
Banned
Incidentally, "The Peninsular Campaign" here is based on what McClellan actually planned to do. It's a bit hagiographic, of course - among other things it assumes he gets what he wanted! - but it's entirely within the scope of election literature and would probably gain praise for being even handed! 
Skallagrim
Banned
Well, "WI the Trent affair had been resolved diplomatically?" will probably be one of the big AH questions in this TL. I expect lots of novels and timelines about it, most of them ending with McClellan gloriously crushing the CSA. And then there will be a contingent of people who doubt the "McClellan myth", of course, and believe that even alone, the CSA would have won. Lots of arguments on this contentious topic, probably. (Not so different from OTL, then...)
Finally, there will be those who staunchy maintain that if only the Union had done some things differently, they could have beaten the CSA and Britain... and they would have conquered Canada, too! (We might call this view... "the Lost Cause of the Union". If only for the sake of irony.)
Finally, there will be those who staunchy maintain that if only the Union had done some things differently, they could have beaten the CSA and Britain... and they would have conquered Canada, too! (We might call this view... "the Lost Cause of the Union". If only for the sake of irony.)
Saphroneth
Banned
Quite probably. Though I imagine there's the occasional odd duck who argues that Grant could do it, or even perhaps Sherman.
I think "Lincoln gets a second term", though, would be rather a fringe view.