you might want to read the battle honors of the various US Army infantry, cavalry and artillery regiments of that period
for that matter Sykes Regulars had that name for a reason
If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)
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you might want to read the battle honors of the various US Army infantry, cavalry and artillery regiments of that period
for that matter Sykes Regulars had that name for a reason
Saphroneth
Banned
I meant specifically pre-war regulars, though I confess I'd become a little mixed up between pre-Trent and ACW as a whole.
While Sykes commanded a division consisting largely of regulars in battles like Second Bull Run, seven of the eleven battalions of infantry making it up were either Regulars raised after the beginning of the war or were NY state infantry; the transition to form a reserve unit instead of making up the Army of the Potomac's provost guard was during March 1862 (before that date the regulars in the AotP were in the provost guard).
In that light, it's hard to make a real comparison - one division is one-third US army regulars from prewar, and those regulars had first spent several months acting as provost guard.
Were there any major battles beyond the first couple in which prewar regulars constituted even a third of the army?
Though to work out exactly which battles the US regulars were in I should really get down to doing US army ORBATs - moving whole divisions, because it's simpler...
Saphroneth
Banned
The three large field commands of the US army of OTL, Jan 1862 (PFD strengths as of Dec 31 1861)
Department of the Potomac (183,000)
Each division very roughly 11,000 strong, except for Lander which is larger
Department of the Missouri (91,000, is AP not PFD)
I can't find the division list but there'd be about seven-eight divisions of the same size.
Department of the Ohio (72,000)
There'd be about six divisions of the same size.
In March the above were combined under Halleck's overall command, and were:
-Grant
-Buell
-Pope
There are also three expeditionary forces of roughly divisional strength - one (Sherman) already at Port Royal, one (Burnside) at Fort Monroe ready to go to North Carolina and one (Butler) still in New England.
TTL's basic appreciation was that I stripped down the Dept. of the Missouri heavily to face Canada (pulling out about 60,000 from it) and cut another 60,000 from the Dept. of the Potomac. Of these 90,000 total went to Canada and 30,000 to the coasts.
I think it's possible that I would alter this - if nothing else I've discovered there were probably more Confederates facing the Union in Missouri - but the number facing Canada and the number on the coast are both minimal, so those troops have to come from somewhere.
Starting with the expeditionary forces, I had both Burnside and Sherman be caught out of place.
As far as I can tell the Union proceeded with the preparations for Burnside's expedition even while Trent was an uncertain thing, but I might make it so Burnside's force (or part of it) is pulled back without the release of tensions. His and Butler's forces are the obvious ones to go to trouble spots straight off (specifically Butler's division to Maine and Burnside's to Rouses Point?) while troops start trickling up to form an army on the Canadian border. On the other hand, I also had Sherman's force partly get back, and that IMO is probably quite unlikely - so it's partly a wash.
The minimal level of coastal defence is, effectively, a division each at NY, New England and Philadelphia on top of what's already there (the troops present being able to handle manning the forts but not a lot more). This is incapable of standing off a serious British landing except by being right there in brigade strength (with reinforcements to rush to the scene), though, so more is probably quite likely. NY, for example, might need two divisions (one for the city proper, one for Long Island).
Coastal positions can support armies of essentially unlimited supplies (or they can south of Maine, at any rate, Maine is a bit more vulnerable because there's only one rail line and it's near the coast in several places).
I estimate the requirements sent would be Philadelphia (1), NY (1), Boston (1), Portsmouth (1) and Portland (1), with in practice a lot of the disposable brigades shifting north once the Portland operation takes place.
Total five divisions required.
Facing Canada, the main point of effort is the line of Lake Champlain. That's the best avenue to push up into Canada and hit Montreal.
I'd say the limit on what you can support there is on the order of 40K or 50K, because of the quality of the rail lines. Say four or five divisions.
Buffalo and Detroit can both support quite large forces; of the two Buffalo would be "offensive" to try to cut the Welland and Detroit would be "defensive". My estimate is that these would be about 20K each (2 divs).
And a small force on the line of the St Lawrence (1 div) to try and interdict it.
Total 9-10 divisions required.
Grand total 14-15 divisions.
So here's how I'd move them around, I think:
-Pope's army is kept to two divisions and is essentially in a defensive role. The battle of Island Number Ten is not organized. (Paine's division goes to Detroit)
The remainder of Pope's army is there to prevent the Confederacy getting back into Mississippi, but is likely to be raided again later if reinforcements are needed.
-Grant's army is cut in half, to three divisions (losing Charles Smith, Hurlbut and Lew Wallace?). These go to Detroit (Hurlbut) and Buffalo (Charles Smith, Lew Wallace).
Grant's army might be materially capable of Henry and Donelson, but I doubt it would be allowed to as it would uncover a huge fraction of the frontier (as no more troops are available to transfer in). A defensive posture is more likely.
- Buell's army of the Ohio gives up three divisions, because of the need to keep at least one strong force in the west in case of things getting nasty. Nelson (to the St Lawrence), TJ Wood (to NY) and George Morgan (to Philadelphia).
Buell's force is intended to move to provide reinforcements where they might be needed west of the mountain spine.
- Rosecrans in the Shenandoah area gets his men back (essentially Lander's division) as the AotP cannot afford having their flank turned now
- The Army of the Potomac needs to give up about seven divisions to make up the numbers, which will reduce it considerably. It will get most of the recruits in the pipeline, but in return will see the transfer of Banks (to Boston), Sumner, Blenker, Stone (to Plattsburg area), Porter (to Long Island Sound area), Casey (to Portsmouth) and Heintzelman (to Portland)
The AotP has to stand on the defensive, and though it swells back towards the old size a lot of them are new recruits with poor weapons.
What that leaves the US Army at is:
Facing CSA (McClellan in command of the east, Halleck the west)
Army of the Mississippi (Pope) (under Halleck)
2 divs (Stanley, Schuyler)
Army of Western Tennessee (Grant) (under Halleck)
3 divs (McClernand, McKean, WT Sherman)
Army of the Ohio (Buell) (under Halleck)
4 divs (George Thomas, McCook, Mitchell, Crittenden)
Army of Western Virginia (Rosecrans) (under McClellan)
3 divs (Rosecrans, Cox, Lander) - Rosecrans in the Cheat Mountain valley, Cox in the Kanawha valley, Lander at Harpers Ferry
Army of the Potomac (McClellan)
6 divs (Franklin, Hooker, Keyes, McCall, McDowell, Smith) plus new recruits
Coastal defences (no overall commander, though much under Dept. of New England )
Baltimore (under McClellan)
1 division (Dix)
Philadelphia
1 division (George Morgan)
NY (under NY Gov and Major General Morgan)
1 division (TJ Wood)
Long Island Sound (dept of NE)
1 division (Porter)
Boston (dept of NE)
1 division (Banks)
Portsmouth (dept of NE)
1 division (Casey)
Portland (dept of NE)
1 division (Heintzelman)
Facing Canada (under Fremont)
Maine (dept of NE)
1 division (Butler, also dept commander)
Plattsburg area (Fremont)
4 divisions (Burnside, Sumner, Blenker, Stone)
St. Lawrence (under Fremont)
1 division (Nelson)
Buffalo (dept. of NY) (complex command structure) (local commander Harney)
2 divisions (Charles Smith, Lew Wallace)
Detroit (local commander Robert Anderson)
2 divisions (Hurlbut, Paine)
The shift to this configuration would not be instant and the logistics would probably take some weeks to sort out.
The two local commanders assigned above are unassigned BG of Regulars, but were both humiliated early in the war with the CSA. I assume they're brought back in because of the war with Britain and assigned to anti-Canada commands.
I admit the above is provisional, and that it doesn't explicitly list militia or some below-division level commands - but they're likely to be taken up with tasks like bridge guard or garrisoning forts.
It is not entirely consistent with how the TL is described - that's because this is me sitting down and working it out now. Do let me know if you detect a mistake! (for example, if there's somewhere I've overly injured the US.)
Department of the Potomac (183,000)
- HQ
- Banks (already in New England)
- Blenker
- Casey
- Dix (really the Baltimore and Annapolis garrison)
- Franklin
- Heintzelman
- Hooker
- Keyes
- Lander
- McCall
- McDowell
- Porter
- Smith
- Stone
- Sumner
Each division very roughly 11,000 strong, except for Lander which is larger
Department of the Missouri (91,000, is AP not PFD)
I can't find the division list but there'd be about seven-eight divisions of the same size.
Department of the Ohio (72,000)
There'd be about six divisions of the same size.
In March the above were combined under Halleck's overall command, and were:
-Grant
- McClernand
- Charles Smith
- Lew Wallace
- Hurlbut
- WT Sherman
- McKean/Schofield
-Buell
- George Thomas
- McCook
- Mitchel
- Nelson
- Crittenden
- TJ Wood
- George Morgan
-Pope
- Paine
- Stanley
- Schuyler
There are also three expeditionary forces of roughly divisional strength - one (Sherman) already at Port Royal, one (Burnside) at Fort Monroe ready to go to North Carolina and one (Butler) still in New England.
TTL's basic appreciation was that I stripped down the Dept. of the Missouri heavily to face Canada (pulling out about 60,000 from it) and cut another 60,000 from the Dept. of the Potomac. Of these 90,000 total went to Canada and 30,000 to the coasts.
I think it's possible that I would alter this - if nothing else I've discovered there were probably more Confederates facing the Union in Missouri - but the number facing Canada and the number on the coast are both minimal, so those troops have to come from somewhere.
Starting with the expeditionary forces, I had both Burnside and Sherman be caught out of place.
As far as I can tell the Union proceeded with the preparations for Burnside's expedition even while Trent was an uncertain thing, but I might make it so Burnside's force (or part of it) is pulled back without the release of tensions. His and Butler's forces are the obvious ones to go to trouble spots straight off (specifically Butler's division to Maine and Burnside's to Rouses Point?) while troops start trickling up to form an army on the Canadian border. On the other hand, I also had Sherman's force partly get back, and that IMO is probably quite unlikely - so it's partly a wash.
The minimal level of coastal defence is, effectively, a division each at NY, New England and Philadelphia on top of what's already there (the troops present being able to handle manning the forts but not a lot more). This is incapable of standing off a serious British landing except by being right there in brigade strength (with reinforcements to rush to the scene), though, so more is probably quite likely. NY, for example, might need two divisions (one for the city proper, one for Long Island).
Coastal positions can support armies of essentially unlimited supplies (or they can south of Maine, at any rate, Maine is a bit more vulnerable because there's only one rail line and it's near the coast in several places).
I estimate the requirements sent would be Philadelphia (1), NY (1), Boston (1), Portsmouth (1) and Portland (1), with in practice a lot of the disposable brigades shifting north once the Portland operation takes place.
Total five divisions required.
Facing Canada, the main point of effort is the line of Lake Champlain. That's the best avenue to push up into Canada and hit Montreal.
I'd say the limit on what you can support there is on the order of 40K or 50K, because of the quality of the rail lines. Say four or five divisions.
Buffalo and Detroit can both support quite large forces; of the two Buffalo would be "offensive" to try to cut the Welland and Detroit would be "defensive". My estimate is that these would be about 20K each (2 divs).
And a small force on the line of the St Lawrence (1 div) to try and interdict it.
Total 9-10 divisions required.
Grand total 14-15 divisions.
So here's how I'd move them around, I think:
-Pope's army is kept to two divisions and is essentially in a defensive role. The battle of Island Number Ten is not organized. (Paine's division goes to Detroit)
The remainder of Pope's army is there to prevent the Confederacy getting back into Mississippi, but is likely to be raided again later if reinforcements are needed.
-Grant's army is cut in half, to three divisions (losing Charles Smith, Hurlbut and Lew Wallace?). These go to Detroit (Hurlbut) and Buffalo (Charles Smith, Lew Wallace).
Grant's army might be materially capable of Henry and Donelson, but I doubt it would be allowed to as it would uncover a huge fraction of the frontier (as no more troops are available to transfer in). A defensive posture is more likely.
- Buell's army of the Ohio gives up three divisions, because of the need to keep at least one strong force in the west in case of things getting nasty. Nelson (to the St Lawrence), TJ Wood (to NY) and George Morgan (to Philadelphia).
Buell's force is intended to move to provide reinforcements where they might be needed west of the mountain spine.
- Rosecrans in the Shenandoah area gets his men back (essentially Lander's division) as the AotP cannot afford having their flank turned now
- The Army of the Potomac needs to give up about seven divisions to make up the numbers, which will reduce it considerably. It will get most of the recruits in the pipeline, but in return will see the transfer of Banks (to Boston), Sumner, Blenker, Stone (to Plattsburg area), Porter (to Long Island Sound area), Casey (to Portsmouth) and Heintzelman (to Portland)
The AotP has to stand on the defensive, and though it swells back towards the old size a lot of them are new recruits with poor weapons.
What that leaves the US Army at is:
Facing CSA (McClellan in command of the east, Halleck the west)
Army of the Mississippi (Pope) (under Halleck)
2 divs (Stanley, Schuyler)
Army of Western Tennessee (Grant) (under Halleck)
3 divs (McClernand, McKean, WT Sherman)
Army of the Ohio (Buell) (under Halleck)
4 divs (George Thomas, McCook, Mitchell, Crittenden)
Army of Western Virginia (Rosecrans) (under McClellan)
3 divs (Rosecrans, Cox, Lander) - Rosecrans in the Cheat Mountain valley, Cox in the Kanawha valley, Lander at Harpers Ferry
Army of the Potomac (McClellan)
6 divs (Franklin, Hooker, Keyes, McCall, McDowell, Smith) plus new recruits
Coastal defences (no overall commander, though much under Dept. of New England )
Baltimore (under McClellan)
1 division (Dix)
Philadelphia
1 division (George Morgan)
NY (under NY Gov and Major General Morgan)
1 division (TJ Wood)
Long Island Sound (dept of NE)
1 division (Porter)
Boston (dept of NE)
1 division (Banks)
Portsmouth (dept of NE)
1 division (Casey)
Portland (dept of NE)
1 division (Heintzelman)
Facing Canada (under Fremont)
Maine (dept of NE)
1 division (Butler, also dept commander)
Plattsburg area (Fremont)
4 divisions (Burnside, Sumner, Blenker, Stone)
St. Lawrence (under Fremont)
1 division (Nelson)
Buffalo (dept. of NY) (complex command structure) (local commander Harney)
2 divisions (Charles Smith, Lew Wallace)
Detroit (local commander Robert Anderson)
2 divisions (Hurlbut, Paine)
The shift to this configuration would not be instant and the logistics would probably take some weeks to sort out.
The two local commanders assigned above are unassigned BG of Regulars, but were both humiliated early in the war with the CSA. I assume they're brought back in because of the war with Britain and assigned to anti-Canada commands.
I admit the above is provisional, and that it doesn't explicitly list militia or some below-division level commands - but they're likely to be taken up with tasks like bridge guard or garrisoning forts.
It is not entirely consistent with how the TL is described - that's because this is me sitting down and working it out now. Do let me know if you detect a mistake! (for example, if there's somewhere I've overly injured the US.)
Last edited:
Saphroneth
Banned
The above is the kind of gut-wrenching calculation the US generals and politicians (i.e. Stanton, Lincoln, McClellan) would need to make. Here I've basically assumed that they're pulling back to the defensive everywhere except a corps-strength attack on Montreal, which is probably the option they'd adopt - it might even be the best one - but there's a lot of bad choices here.
It's always the question you try to ask, as a commander - what is the worst thing my enemy can do to me?
And most of what the Union is doing here is trying to avoid that. The forces along the coast are because the British have a demonstrated ability to land thirty thousand men with artillery over the course of a day (Calamita Bay - though the supplies took another day or two to land), and because they know that when Lincoln called for reinforcements at Washington it took more than a week to get five regiments there. The force at Buffalo is because the British can use the Welland to get gunboats onto Lake Erie and that would be serious trouble for a lot of important US manufacturing centres, and the force at Detroit is because Detroit is an important manufacturing centre.
The ability of the Union to make offensive moves southwards is effectively destroyed. They simply do not have enough formations spare to attack south as well as north, and since the south is a harder target (after all, they're AMERICANS! Plus, you know, everyone in Canada wants to be American or something) they're picking north.
This means that Fremont's command at Lake Champlain is pretty much the offensive power of the US at this point. It's pretty heftily loaded down with arty (the entire AotP siege train) and if they wanted to go pure defensive then arguably the divisions would be better back in the Army of the Potomac... but then again if they could take Montreal - the most vulnerable of the four keystones to British control of Canada (of the other three, Quebec is a huge distance away; Kingston is a fortress on the other side of a river and the Union has terrible rail links to the area, and Halifax is lolnope) - they make their task much easier.
It's always the question you try to ask, as a commander - what is the worst thing my enemy can do to me?
And most of what the Union is doing here is trying to avoid that. The forces along the coast are because the British have a demonstrated ability to land thirty thousand men with artillery over the course of a day (Calamita Bay - though the supplies took another day or two to land), and because they know that when Lincoln called for reinforcements at Washington it took more than a week to get five regiments there. The force at Buffalo is because the British can use the Welland to get gunboats onto Lake Erie and that would be serious trouble for a lot of important US manufacturing centres, and the force at Detroit is because Detroit is an important manufacturing centre.
The ability of the Union to make offensive moves southwards is effectively destroyed. They simply do not have enough formations spare to attack south as well as north, and since the south is a harder target (after all, they're AMERICANS! Plus, you know, everyone in Canada wants to be American or something) they're picking north.
This means that Fremont's command at Lake Champlain is pretty much the offensive power of the US at this point. It's pretty heftily loaded down with arty (the entire AotP siege train) and if they wanted to go pure defensive then arguably the divisions would be better back in the Army of the Potomac... but then again if they could take Montreal - the most vulnerable of the four keystones to British control of Canada (of the other three, Quebec is a huge distance away; Kingston is a fortress on the other side of a river and the Union has terrible rail links to the area, and Halifax is lolnope) - they make their task much easier.
Actually, there are two things a commander should consider:
1. The enemy's most dangerous course of action (your 'what's the worst thing my enemy can do to me')
2. The enemy's most likely course of action
If 1 and 2 are the same, then your planning is simplified. But that doesn't often happen, so you have to cover the 'most likely' but have a contingency plan in place (and resourced) to deal with the 'most dangerous' if it happens.
The trickiest thing of course is working out what both are, as they will always involve an element of guesswork. The better your intelligence of the enemy's forces (including the attitudes, training, etc of the commanders), the better your assessment of 'most dangerous' and 'most likely' will be - bearing in mind that your enemy will be doing the same assessment of you, which might change his 'most likely' or even his 'most dangerous'!
Then there's the common problem in military campaign planning of assuming that everything will go according to plan. Murphy's first law of combat is that the enemy gets a vote...
All of this is modern campaign planning, of course, which was in its early infancy in the mid-19th century - though the principles have existed for centuries/millennia, as can be seen by studying the campaigns of the best commanders through history.
Sun Tzu said:
Saphroneth
Banned
Right. And the problem the Union has is that the British have so many options. The US east coast is simply not adequately defended at the PoD - honestly, it'd be an interesting what-if if the British were able to shift troops much faster than they did in the Crimean days and they managed a Calamita Bay sized landing on month three without leaving Canada overly vulnerable. What on earth does the Union do if the British land two and a half corps (i.e. 30,000 men) at Benedict in a reprisal of the Chesapeake Bay campaign?
3-22 October 1865
Saphroneth
Banned
3 October
The electoral contest in the Confederate States is intensifying, with the "spirit of Party" by now in full swing. There are still no official political parties as such, but it is definitely the case that broad blocs are consolidating, and in a few cases Senate or House candidates have withdrawn in favour of others - a clear indication of debt-trading to try and elect people willing to take part in a voting bloc.
One reason this is important is that the next Confederate elections - in 1867 - will include the first true election of a Confederate President. (Jefferson Davis was elected by acclamation at a constitutional convention.)
5 October
In the slow progression of talks over Canadian confederation, a major sticking point is the size of the army. The representatives of the British government make no secret of the fact that they would prefer Canada to largely look to her own defences in peacetime (though there will still of course be an army dispatched in wartime) and suggest that the 100th regiment of the British Army - consisting of BNA men in the main - be transferred to Canada, as well as the Royal Canadian Rifles being maintained as a two-battalion regiment.
The issue is whether there will be more Canadian regulars, or whether it would be better to employ a large force of active militia (with training in the otherwise unproductive winter months), or even whether both of these are excessive. The debate frequently breaks down to pointing at a map and trying to decide the vital points to defend (such as the Welland canal or points south of the St Lawrence).
The issue of a Royal Canadian Navy is right out.
8th October
Antoine Alphonse Chassepot trials his latest experimental breech-loading rifle.
It is not ideal, with some deficiencies in the cartridge (it uses a conventional percussion cap, and there are issues with the seal) but one feature about it makes it interesting - it uses the "bolt" action, where the operation of the bolt and the other moving components are controlled by a single handle.
Chassepot considers the action to be sufficient for now, and determines to continue work on the cartridge and the other features of the weapon.
Notably, in dry firing the rifle is very fast - Chassepot estimates it will fire more than twelve times a minute, and thus be better than the British Snider (something which warms the heart of any Frenchman.)
13th October
A clash between Shinsengumi and samurai from Choshu domain takes place, with the eyes of Japan on it - most of the powerful domains are still sitting on the fence.
In the event, the battle is inconclusive - there is plenty of long ranged skirmishing, but the two forces never close to within two hundred yards.
Perhaps oddly, this does convince one daimyo to commit forces - Aizu domain, which expresses support for the Shogunate.
With the weather turning bad for campaigning, the order of the next few months is politicking.
17th October
The Northumberland is launched, the latest in the growing British ironclad navy - one which, by now, is considered probably sufficient to replace wooden ships of the line. More building is ongoing, however, as the next step is to build up a reserve; until this reserve is done, plans are kept ready to razee some well-built ships of the line and plate them promptly upon any increase in tensions.
The launch is well attended, with Viscount Palmerston present to make a speech (which includes, once again, mention of the forts he has been pressing for years and which are well underway).
18th October
The Frederickton, Houlton and Quebec railway is officially opened, after several years of difficulty. This provides most of an all-seasons route to Canada itself (with the remaining issue being connecting Frederickton to the Maritimes rail network itself) and is widely praised - even in Maine, since this means it will soon be possible to reacquire some of the terrain lost in the peace treaty.
21st October
The day after his 81st birthday, Henry John Temple (the Viscount Palmerston) dies in bed. He is reported to be alert up until the end, with his last comment being on the lunettes for the fortifications at Portsmouth (still on his mind after the speech from the launch of the Northumberland).
When the news arrives in the Americas, there are more than a few discreet sighs of relief in the two American nations. (Also a common sentiment in Europe!)
22nd October
The Earl Russell forms a government as the new Prime Minister. He remains Minister for Foreign Affairs until a new minister can be selected.
Punch promptly jumps on this, producing a cartoon depicting the Earl Russel being told that under Palmerston ("If Old Pumicestone was the Prime Minister, there were no Foreign Affairs without his support; when he was in the Foreign Office, there were no domestic affairs without his interest; when he was in London, he was involved in many affairs with all sorts!")
The electoral contest in the Confederate States is intensifying, with the "spirit of Party" by now in full swing. There are still no official political parties as such, but it is definitely the case that broad blocs are consolidating, and in a few cases Senate or House candidates have withdrawn in favour of others - a clear indication of debt-trading to try and elect people willing to take part in a voting bloc.
One reason this is important is that the next Confederate elections - in 1867 - will include the first true election of a Confederate President. (Jefferson Davis was elected by acclamation at a constitutional convention.)
5 October
In the slow progression of talks over Canadian confederation, a major sticking point is the size of the army. The representatives of the British government make no secret of the fact that they would prefer Canada to largely look to her own defences in peacetime (though there will still of course be an army dispatched in wartime) and suggest that the 100th regiment of the British Army - consisting of BNA men in the main - be transferred to Canada, as well as the Royal Canadian Rifles being maintained as a two-battalion regiment.
The issue is whether there will be more Canadian regulars, or whether it would be better to employ a large force of active militia (with training in the otherwise unproductive winter months), or even whether both of these are excessive. The debate frequently breaks down to pointing at a map and trying to decide the vital points to defend (such as the Welland canal or points south of the St Lawrence).
The issue of a Royal Canadian Navy is right out.
8th October
Antoine Alphonse Chassepot trials his latest experimental breech-loading rifle.
It is not ideal, with some deficiencies in the cartridge (it uses a conventional percussion cap, and there are issues with the seal) but one feature about it makes it interesting - it uses the "bolt" action, where the operation of the bolt and the other moving components are controlled by a single handle.
Chassepot considers the action to be sufficient for now, and determines to continue work on the cartridge and the other features of the weapon.
Notably, in dry firing the rifle is very fast - Chassepot estimates it will fire more than twelve times a minute, and thus be better than the British Snider (something which warms the heart of any Frenchman.)
13th October
A clash between Shinsengumi and samurai from Choshu domain takes place, with the eyes of Japan on it - most of the powerful domains are still sitting on the fence.
In the event, the battle is inconclusive - there is plenty of long ranged skirmishing, but the two forces never close to within two hundred yards.
Perhaps oddly, this does convince one daimyo to commit forces - Aizu domain, which expresses support for the Shogunate.
With the weather turning bad for campaigning, the order of the next few months is politicking.
17th October
The Northumberland is launched, the latest in the growing British ironclad navy - one which, by now, is considered probably sufficient to replace wooden ships of the line. More building is ongoing, however, as the next step is to build up a reserve; until this reserve is done, plans are kept ready to razee some well-built ships of the line and plate them promptly upon any increase in tensions.
The launch is well attended, with Viscount Palmerston present to make a speech (which includes, once again, mention of the forts he has been pressing for years and which are well underway).
18th October
The Frederickton, Houlton and Quebec railway is officially opened, after several years of difficulty. This provides most of an all-seasons route to Canada itself (with the remaining issue being connecting Frederickton to the Maritimes rail network itself) and is widely praised - even in Maine, since this means it will soon be possible to reacquire some of the terrain lost in the peace treaty.
21st October
The day after his 81st birthday, Henry John Temple (the Viscount Palmerston) dies in bed. He is reported to be alert up until the end, with his last comment being on the lunettes for the fortifications at Portsmouth (still on his mind after the speech from the launch of the Northumberland).
When the news arrives in the Americas, there are more than a few discreet sighs of relief in the two American nations. (Also a common sentiment in Europe!)
22nd October
The Earl Russell forms a government as the new Prime Minister. He remains Minister for Foreign Affairs until a new minister can be selected.
Punch promptly jumps on this, producing a cartoon depicting the Earl Russel being told that under Palmerston ("If Old Pumicestone was the Prime Minister, there were no Foreign Affairs without his support; when he was in the Foreign Office, there were no domestic affairs without his interest; when he was in London, he was involved in many affairs with all sorts!")
Saphroneth
Banned
And a quick precis on the operational movements of an attack on Portland.
Assuming the Saco bridge has not been dropped (and that there is thus a viable route for reinforcement) then the British have a number of options for how to handle this - one method would be to attack the forts directly with wooden ships and an ironclad or two, while working around the flank through the smaller islands with gunboats. Another would be to land troops northeast of the city (e.g. at Yarmouth) and a third would be to land south of it (e.g. at Cape Elizabeth - or even at Saco Bay, and march a couple of miles inland to cut the rail line).
Assuming that the British arrive at sunrise (dawn itself is 6:30 AM on the 22nd of Feb, with navigable light before then) and that the telegraph message gets out inside ten minutes, then troops can start reacting within an hour or so - we'll see how much time they have to arrive.
It's hard to get good figures on how long it would take to disembark troops, though if the British managed it at the same speed they did at Calamita Bay (The allies got 60,000 men and some of the artillery ashore on day one, half of them British and a lot of the delay resulting from the French bagging the good landing spot!) then the entire force could be ashore in a few hours at about one battery and one brigade per hour.
If we use the Saco Bay landing for now, then that means the first brigade to land is marching on Saco at about H+1 (an hour or so past dawn), and they could capture the town (pop. 6,200, likely defence at most 600 or so if there's a substantial bridge guard) at H+2 or H+3 - it's a matter of a few miles. This cuts the rail line to Portland, and if the bridge is demolished then it's going to be very hard for the Union to rush reinforcements to Portland or indeed to counter-invade at all; this would form a suitable line to hold on the defensive once more forces are shipped in. (It's a useful enough operation to be tried even if the main landing is at Cape Elizabeth)
By about 10:30 (H+4) then all four brigades are ashore, and the force not detailed to handle Saco (three brigades at least) can begin their approach march if they're not already on it. It's perhaps fourteen miles from the beach to Portland, which is doable in four hours (allowing for how the movement of the point brigade can start some time before the final brigade is ashore, clearing the way so the latter brigades can advance in column).
What this suggests to me is that the British would end up reaching Portland in the mid-afternoon (perhaps 2:30 or 3:00 pm) - and, with no major landward fortifications in place, the city's in big trouble. If the Union manages to get everything pulled together fast, then they could have perhaps 12,000 or 13,000 troops present for a field battle (this represents the full Portland-assigned division, with any detachments pulled back, and some of the troops from the division facing the Maritimes) - though some of these are going to be in the sea forts, and either still resisting or trying to recover their hearing after the British blasted the forts to bits.
The result, then, is a battle in the snow with the British having a big training advantage and the US having a small numerical one. (functionally the British have 8,000 effectives, 2/3 prewar regulars, plus good artillery, and the defenders of Maine have 10,000 present-for-duty at best - nearly identical in terms of effectives. If the British leave only one infantry regiment at Saco they may actually have a numerical advantage, depending on how fast the US can rail in reinforcements.)
Key point here is that there's no landward defences (which is totally unlike Sevastopol) and so the British should be able to take Portland fairly easily if the garrison has only a small amount of warning.
The difficult bit is working out how much the snow affects the speed of campaign and what can be done. It shouldn't be impossible to attack (because the British felt it could be done) but it may be the concept was to attack in a "New Orleans" sort of way (run the guns, demand the surrender of the town) - though that doesn't explain why they assigned so many troops to it, unless that was intended to be the permanent garrison.
Assuming the Saco bridge has not been dropped (and that there is thus a viable route for reinforcement) then the British have a number of options for how to handle this - one method would be to attack the forts directly with wooden ships and an ironclad or two, while working around the flank through the smaller islands with gunboats. Another would be to land troops northeast of the city (e.g. at Yarmouth) and a third would be to land south of it (e.g. at Cape Elizabeth - or even at Saco Bay, and march a couple of miles inland to cut the rail line).
Assuming that the British arrive at sunrise (dawn itself is 6:30 AM on the 22nd of Feb, with navigable light before then) and that the telegraph message gets out inside ten minutes, then troops can start reacting within an hour or so - we'll see how much time they have to arrive.
It's hard to get good figures on how long it would take to disembark troops, though if the British managed it at the same speed they did at Calamita Bay (The allies got 60,000 men and some of the artillery ashore on day one, half of them British and a lot of the delay resulting from the French bagging the good landing spot!) then the entire force could be ashore in a few hours at about one battery and one brigade per hour.
If we use the Saco Bay landing for now, then that means the first brigade to land is marching on Saco at about H+1 (an hour or so past dawn), and they could capture the town (pop. 6,200, likely defence at most 600 or so if there's a substantial bridge guard) at H+2 or H+3 - it's a matter of a few miles. This cuts the rail line to Portland, and if the bridge is demolished then it's going to be very hard for the Union to rush reinforcements to Portland or indeed to counter-invade at all; this would form a suitable line to hold on the defensive once more forces are shipped in. (It's a useful enough operation to be tried even if the main landing is at Cape Elizabeth)
By about 10:30 (H+4) then all four brigades are ashore, and the force not detailed to handle Saco (three brigades at least) can begin their approach march if they're not already on it. It's perhaps fourteen miles from the beach to Portland, which is doable in four hours (allowing for how the movement of the point brigade can start some time before the final brigade is ashore, clearing the way so the latter brigades can advance in column).
What this suggests to me is that the British would end up reaching Portland in the mid-afternoon (perhaps 2:30 or 3:00 pm) - and, with no major landward fortifications in place, the city's in big trouble. If the Union manages to get everything pulled together fast, then they could have perhaps 12,000 or 13,000 troops present for a field battle (this represents the full Portland-assigned division, with any detachments pulled back, and some of the troops from the division facing the Maritimes) - though some of these are going to be in the sea forts, and either still resisting or trying to recover their hearing after the British blasted the forts to bits.
The result, then, is a battle in the snow with the British having a big training advantage and the US having a small numerical one. (functionally the British have 8,000 effectives, 2/3 prewar regulars, plus good artillery, and the defenders of Maine have 10,000 present-for-duty at best - nearly identical in terms of effectives. If the British leave only one infantry regiment at Saco they may actually have a numerical advantage, depending on how fast the US can rail in reinforcements.)
Key point here is that there's no landward defences (which is totally unlike Sevastopol) and so the British should be able to take Portland fairly easily if the garrison has only a small amount of warning.
The difficult bit is working out how much the snow affects the speed of campaign and what can be done. It shouldn't be impossible to attack (because the British felt it could be done) but it may be the concept was to attack in a "New Orleans" sort of way (run the guns, demand the surrender of the town) - though that doesn't explain why they assigned so many troops to it, unless that was intended to be the permanent garrison.
Just want to point out, the biggest problem with Canadian confederation is the interprovincial tariffs and the shutting of the Maritimes out of the great circle trade, with the National policy.
If these are not fixed then the Maritimes will just become economic colonies of Canada, and anti confederation sentiments will be intrentched until the 1930's or later. An example is my granduncles wore black arm bands every Canada until the day they died.
If these are not fixed then the Maritimes will just become economic colonies of Canada, and anti confederation sentiments will be intrentched until the 1930's or later. An example is my granduncles wore black arm bands every Canada until the day they died.
Saphroneth
Banned
Hm... so as I understand it the problem is that the Maritimes had an economy much more linked with Europe, while Ontario and Quebec were trying to grow local manufacturing.
That's a tricky one - it'd probably take deliberate policy to avoid something like that happen, though if the CSA keeps making a noise about we totally rebelled over the tarriff they might at least rethink compared to OTL.
Dupuy & Dupuy wrote "Numbers Predictions and War" it has a very usable series of charts for movement and how it is affected by troop type, terrain, weather and roads available. As well as a brilliant way of calculating combat.
I know..... I've said it all before - no I don't get commission!
I know..... I've said it all before - no I don't get commission!
Saphroneth
Banned
Now, it's also possible that what the British intended was a landing right at the start of the war - essentially before any troops had arrived to defend Portland at all. This would be a much easier prospect, as the harbour defences were essentially unarmed (12 24-pounder guns, 1 8 inch mortar) and the troops in them had 255 M1842 muskets, with very roughly a thousand armed militia in the whole rest of the state (and those not very good - most of the good units had been absorbed into the US Army.) There's nothing that can resist either a brigade of regulars or HMS Hydra.
Part of my worry about doing that as part of a proper TL (which would essentially be, blow up the forts in the morning and capture the city in the afternoon, then rail the lead elements of two regiments down to the Saco River bridge and destroy it in the evening) is that it feels too overpowered - I mean, I know the harbour was essentially unguarded, and an army consisting of a British army corps and plenty of Maritimes volunteers is going to be able to hold down Maine and seriously threaten the flank of New England (as well as making the movement of troops down the sled route essentially unnecessary) but it feels almost like it's saying it wouldn't be possible to defend Canada without it.
Part of my worry about doing that as part of a proper TL (which would essentially be, blow up the forts in the morning and capture the city in the afternoon, then rail the lead elements of two regiments down to the Saco River bridge and destroy it in the evening) is that it feels too overpowered - I mean, I know the harbour was essentially unguarded, and an army consisting of a British army corps and plenty of Maritimes volunteers is going to be able to hold down Maine and seriously threaten the flank of New England (as well as making the movement of troops down the sled route essentially unnecessary) but it feels almost like it's saying it wouldn't be possible to defend Canada without it.
It was such a shock, because at the time the Maritimes were industrializing fast. I would in truth recommend combining NS, NB, PEI, and Bermuda before they join Canada so as the Canadians can't ignore the economical facts of the region. The biggest turn would be convincing NS to have the capitol in Charlottetown. If there was funding made available for expansion of the Shubinacadie Canal, and make the Chignecto boat rail way into a canal, or even through the Tantramar Marshes, you could see them be swayed. Not letting the railways build low bridges over those respective canals would also give them longevity.
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Saphroneth
Banned
Bermuda seems unlikely - it's a long way from the rest of BNA, over seven hundred miles. Newfoundland's much closer.
But as to combining them - so a two-step confederation process, with the first making the Maritimes into an official single unit and then the second making a four-component Canadian federation (BC, Ontario, Quebec and Maritimes).
Hm, interesting concept - feels organically fiddly, which is probably a good thing.
GOT IT! From about 1979/80, I'll scan it tomorrow and get it off to you.
They are only my notes but they contain sufficient info for the calculations.
The long run is a more likely end, the more carribean trade will be a big influence. The between Halifax and Hamilton were pretty strong, as Navy packets ran constantly between the two. Dalhousie has a very large Bermudian student population today, and Halifax, many emegrés.
WWII era, if there is such a 30 years war, could lead to militry means on top of economic for their joining.
WWII era, if there is such a 30 years war, could lead to militry means on top of economic for their joining.
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25 October - 15 November 1865
Saphroneth
Banned
25th October
A major fortification project begins around Norfolk and environs, replacing the guns of Forts Monroe, Calhoun and Norfolk (as well as outlying batteries) with the most modern rifles possible.
The existing smoothbore guns and earlier rifles are to be placed in landward batteries, including between Tanner's Creek and Mason Creek (to protect the Sewall's Point batteries) and a line between Indian Creek and Pollock's Creek (to close that landward approach) as well as upgrading existing fortified positions.
Since Gosport Navy Yard and the associated buildings is by far the most important naval base of the Confederacy, it is considered to be highly important to protect it against any practicable attack. For the same reason, it is officially designated as the base for a peacetime regiment of the Confederate Army as well as being a major nexus of mobilization for the well-drilled Virginia Militia.
26th October
The price offered to Mexico for French Minie rifles is revised down somewhat, allowing for the purchase of half again as many rifles for the same quantity of gold or silver. This allows for a revision in Mexican military planning, and for some money to be spent on acquiring railway expertise (in order to assist the Imperial Mexican Railway Company in the construction of the rail line from Vera Cruz to Mexico City).
The Emperor of Mexico is quite pleased with this, as the rail line is a project he is very interested in and the delays have been a worry.
29th October
Morant Bay rebellion begins in Jamaica, a bloody episode sparked by a deputation of peasants attempting to speak to the island's governor. The 2/12th is deployed by the governor to suppress what is seen by him as a rebellion, and through a series of errors of judgement the battalion will ultimately kill hundreds of black Jamaicans and burn thousands of homes.
1st November
Founding of the National Temperance Society and Publishing House in the United States.
2nd November
News of the Morant Bay Rebellion arrives in Britain. Thanks to the telegraph link under the Atlantic it is possible to get news at lightning speed compared to previous years, but the details are lacking. What is known is enough to cause a sudden huge controversy in the press, however, with many decrying it as "a positively Confederate course of action".
4th November
Publication of a joint work between Charles Darwin and Gregor Mendel, The Variation of Animals and Plants under Domestication. A weighty tome, it has been completely rewritten over the past two years from Darwin's original manuscript in order to take into account the Genetic Theory of evolution.
It is made clear that the precise alleles involving many of the changes are not known, and that in several cases it is clear there must be three or more alleles acting upon the same trait, but nevertheless the arguments are compelling and the book is (much as with the Origin of Species) oversubscribed upon publication.
Translations into all the languages of the Austrian Empire are ongoing, as are translations into Spanish, French and Portugese.
7th November
Confederate elections take place. There are still no official party designations, but broadly speaking there are three blocs present in the House - one for states' autonomy (up to a few representatives per state espouse this position), one for greater central government control (largely concentrated in Virginia and Louisiana, which have the largest cities) and one for keeping everything the same thank you very much (the remainder).
The blocs are ill-defined in numbers, membership and even views, and anyone drawing a hemicycle would need approximately as many colours as there are Congressmen.
9th November
An assassination attempt is foiled in Japan, with the assailants gunned down by Shinsengumi as they attempt to kill the Shogun.
It is not known where the attackers came from, with their clothing and equipment being from a very wide variety of sources (oddly, one is armed with an extremely rare Prussian Dreyse rifle, though it is jammed, while another carries a naginata polearm), and none survived to be questioned - with some shot in the head, others bayoneted, and at least one having his knee shot out followed by a close-range shot to the back of the head.
The Bakfu is outraged about the assassination attempt, stating that it shows the lawlessness of the opponents of the Shogun.
13th November
The Belliqueuse begins sea trials at Toulon. A French attempt at a cheap "foreign service" ironclad (known as a "stationnaire"), she is quite heavily armoured and carries four heavy guns and six somewhat lighter guns, totalling eight broadside guns and two pivots.
She is accompanied by two ships of the Provence class, a huge ten-ship class of ironclad frigate also being built by the French (as part of their equivalent to the British plan replacing their line fleet).
16th November
The design of Monarch is finalized. She is to displace around 8,000 tons, and to have two twin turrets amidships and three single guns in the ends; she is also to have steam power to train her guns, and her length:beam ratio is to be the very fine 5.7:1.
Armstrong has assured the Navy that he can produce either 11 inch or 12 inch breechloading guns by the time of the completion of the Monarch, assuming she takes roughly as long as normal.
A major fortification project begins around Norfolk and environs, replacing the guns of Forts Monroe, Calhoun and Norfolk (as well as outlying batteries) with the most modern rifles possible.
The existing smoothbore guns and earlier rifles are to be placed in landward batteries, including between Tanner's Creek and Mason Creek (to protect the Sewall's Point batteries) and a line between Indian Creek and Pollock's Creek (to close that landward approach) as well as upgrading existing fortified positions.
Since Gosport Navy Yard and the associated buildings is by far the most important naval base of the Confederacy, it is considered to be highly important to protect it against any practicable attack. For the same reason, it is officially designated as the base for a peacetime regiment of the Confederate Army as well as being a major nexus of mobilization for the well-drilled Virginia Militia.
26th October
The price offered to Mexico for French Minie rifles is revised down somewhat, allowing for the purchase of half again as many rifles for the same quantity of gold or silver. This allows for a revision in Mexican military planning, and for some money to be spent on acquiring railway expertise (in order to assist the Imperial Mexican Railway Company in the construction of the rail line from Vera Cruz to Mexico City).
The Emperor of Mexico is quite pleased with this, as the rail line is a project he is very interested in and the delays have been a worry.
29th October
Morant Bay rebellion begins in Jamaica, a bloody episode sparked by a deputation of peasants attempting to speak to the island's governor. The 2/12th is deployed by the governor to suppress what is seen by him as a rebellion, and through a series of errors of judgement the battalion will ultimately kill hundreds of black Jamaicans and burn thousands of homes.
1st November
Founding of the National Temperance Society and Publishing House in the United States.
2nd November
News of the Morant Bay Rebellion arrives in Britain. Thanks to the telegraph link under the Atlantic it is possible to get news at lightning speed compared to previous years, but the details are lacking. What is known is enough to cause a sudden huge controversy in the press, however, with many decrying it as "a positively Confederate course of action".
4th November
Publication of a joint work between Charles Darwin and Gregor Mendel, The Variation of Animals and Plants under Domestication. A weighty tome, it has been completely rewritten over the past two years from Darwin's original manuscript in order to take into account the Genetic Theory of evolution.
It is made clear that the precise alleles involving many of the changes are not known, and that in several cases it is clear there must be three or more alleles acting upon the same trait, but nevertheless the arguments are compelling and the book is (much as with the Origin of Species) oversubscribed upon publication.
Translations into all the languages of the Austrian Empire are ongoing, as are translations into Spanish, French and Portugese.
7th November
Confederate elections take place. There are still no official party designations, but broadly speaking there are three blocs present in the House - one for states' autonomy (up to a few representatives per state espouse this position), one for greater central government control (largely concentrated in Virginia and Louisiana, which have the largest cities) and one for keeping everything the same thank you very much (the remainder).
The blocs are ill-defined in numbers, membership and even views, and anyone drawing a hemicycle would need approximately as many colours as there are Congressmen.
9th November
An assassination attempt is foiled in Japan, with the assailants gunned down by Shinsengumi as they attempt to kill the Shogun.
It is not known where the attackers came from, with their clothing and equipment being from a very wide variety of sources (oddly, one is armed with an extremely rare Prussian Dreyse rifle, though it is jammed, while another carries a naginata polearm), and none survived to be questioned - with some shot in the head, others bayoneted, and at least one having his knee shot out followed by a close-range shot to the back of the head.
The Bakfu is outraged about the assassination attempt, stating that it shows the lawlessness of the opponents of the Shogun.
13th November
The Belliqueuse begins sea trials at Toulon. A French attempt at a cheap "foreign service" ironclad (known as a "stationnaire"), she is quite heavily armoured and carries four heavy guns and six somewhat lighter guns, totalling eight broadside guns and two pivots.
She is accompanied by two ships of the Provence class, a huge ten-ship class of ironclad frigate also being built by the French (as part of their equivalent to the British plan replacing their line fleet).
16th November
The design of Monarch is finalized. She is to displace around 8,000 tons, and to have two twin turrets amidships and three single guns in the ends; she is also to have steam power to train her guns, and her length:beam ratio is to be the very fine 5.7:1.
Armstrong has assured the Navy that he can produce either 11 inch or 12 inch breechloading guns by the time of the completion of the Monarch, assuming she takes roughly as long as normal.