If they will not meet us on the open sea (a Trent TL)

Saphroneth

Banned
Your version of Prince Albert was very reminiscent of a certain Gen. Melchett: "If nothing else, a total pig-headed unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through." :biggrin:
It nearly did, though.
Besides, he's a British general in this. That means, as per Comedy Law, he has to be British Idiot General from central casting.
 
As an aside for your previous big post, the 62nd also looks as though they would have been assigned to seize the posts at Houlton and Fort Fairfield to secure the overland route. While I was reading Safeguarding Canada 1763 - 1871 by J Mackay Hitsman, I found this quote I used in Wrapped in Flames: “The Town consists of scattered houses extended over more than a mile in length & lying at the bottom of a hill. The only garrison in the place were 60 Volunteers, whom I saw marching in the Town without arms to the inspiring air of Yankee Doodle played on a solitary fife accompanied by a big drum, so that the 62nd would not have had a hard task to preform.

I think the 62nd would have remained in these seized posts until relieved by a suitably strong force of local militia, then proceeded either overland, or back to the Maritimes to be shipped somewhere else.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
As an aside for your previous big post, the 62nd also looks as though they would have been assigned to seize the posts at Houlton and Fort Fairfield to secure the overland route. While I was reading Safeguarding Canada 1763 - 1871 by J Mackay Hitsman, I found this quote I used in Wrapped in Flames: “The Town consists of scattered houses extended over more than a mile in length & lying at the bottom of a hill. The only garrison in the place were 60 Volunteers, whom I saw marching in the Town without arms to the inspiring air of Yankee Doodle played on a solitary fife accompanied by a big drum, so that the 62nd would not have had a hard task to preform.

I think the 62nd would have remained in these seized posts until relieved by a suitably strong force of local militia, then proceeded either overland, or back to the Maritimes to be shipped somewhere else.

That sounds like it makes sense. Break up the 62nd into wings and have it take the only real bases for Maine militia to threaten the overland route.

I think the 62nd probably would have remained in place simply because there were also plans to reinforce them with the 1/Rifles (from memory, it was certainly a battalion) so there was a sense it might take two battalions of regulars to deal with. But this might be that they were assuming the US had been planning this for months.
 
That sounds like it makes sense. Break up the 62nd into wings and have it take the only real bases for Maine militia to threaten the overland route.

I think the 62nd probably would have remained in place simply because there were also plans to reinforce them with the 1/Rifles (from memory, it was certainly a battalion) so there was a sense it might take two battalions of regulars to deal with. But this might be that they were assuming the US had been planning this for months.

I imagine once it becomes clear they have no real threat of opposition from the Union (who can't reinforce the border anyway) then they use the regulars elsewhere and replace them with a strong brigade of militia manning fortified posts along the frontier. No sense in wasting a battalion when volunteers can get the job done eh?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
And a prose bit on the problems of blockade-running...





The door to the President's office swung open.

"Ah, Mr. Welles," Lincoln said, nodding to him. "It is a comfort to see you."

"I am ever your faithful servant, Mr. President," Welles replied, a smile touching his lips for a moment.

"Do take a seat," Lincoln invited. "Now - what news?"

"Not good news, Mr. President," Welles said, with a long sigh. "The navy yards are doing all they can to fit out new ships with guns, but the ships I want for the navy are the ships we want for running the blockade - good, well-found steamers of sound construction - and all too often there is a bidding war over those ships on the ways and laid up."

Lincoln frowned a little, then raised a finger. "Mr. Secretary, I wished to ask you about running the blockade in particular. How does it go?"

"It goes... poorly," Welles admitted. "The problem is threefold."

Lincoln leaned forwards a little to listen.

"In the first place, there is the problem of ports. We have few ports, Mr. President, or rather it would be better to say we have fewer entry points to our ports - many of them are on Long Island Sound or Chesapeake Bay, which are stopped up by a single squadron of Royal Navy ships each; worse, while ships running our blockade of the Rebels in the last year could set off from points such as Bermuda or the Bahamas or Havana, and have a journey of five or six hundred miles, we have journeys of one thousand miles from Havana or many thousands from elsewhere. It is hard for blockade running vessels to be both large enough to carry worthwhile cargoes, long-legged enough to steam from Europe, agile enough to evade the blockading British vessels and shallow enough to hide upriver from the British gunboats. We have a few such ships, and are building more, but they are not efficient; and, as I have said, they are the same ones we would want for gunboats."

The President absorbed that.

"I confess, I had been thinking in terms of how easily our own blockade was flouted," he said, considering. "And in how it was given scant respect by the British."

"The British have the reputation to make a blockade stick, which we did not," Welles admitted. "And they have brought France with them. But the second issue is the problem of ships - for, you see, there is a grave problem there."

He shook his head. "The greatest merchant fleets in the world are the fleets of England, our own, and France," he said. "Obviously the British merchant fleet is useless, but our own is not nearly so efficient for running blockades as I would like - it is vulnerable to capture anywhere, unless it raises the flag of another power, and even then all the other powers of note have granted the British the right of search. So any ships of our own fleet we send out are liable to capture anywhere, not just upon running the blockade."

The Secretary paused, then went on. "And, as you know, we did not wish to do the same too brazenly to British ships."

"Little our forbearance granted us in that regard," Lincoln observed. "So our own ships are of no use?"

"They are of some use," Welles corrected. "There are fast mail packets under government commission, and of those I would venture perhaps one third is caught, depending on the other end of their run. But aside from that, the problem is simply that there is too much risk and too little profit, so the owners of the ships do not venture to risk them - we cannot pay enough in gold to make it worthwhile - and instead many of them are selling their ships to another flag, changing their registration and letting them take up the grain trade or other tasks. So there are not many ships willing to risk the blockade, and the two-thirds who make it through are a small number compared to the trade of New York or Boston or Philadelphia last year."

"You mentioned another flag ... such as the French?" Lincoln enquired. "Is there any hope of French assistance?"

"Little enough," Welles said, waving his hand at the map. "There have been a few, but we have to offer great incentives - a French ship may carry a cargo to the Rebels, at little risk, and trade across for cotton, or she may take the great risk of the British blockade of our shores and trade her cargo for grain or small cargoes. We must pay a great bounty, but the Rebels can actually levy a small tarriff on imports. And the same is true in Europe - it is costly to recruit ships and cargoes, and costlier to ensure the British consulate does not outbid us and buy the information from the stevedores. Just last week the Belgian Cantabria was caught off Long Island, and the rumour is that the British had word of her arrival a day ahead of her reaching Long Island Sound."

He shook his head. "But the greatest problem is that of the safety of the ships once they have docked," the Secretary said. "That is the problem that our forts have been shot out - there is little that can be easily done to prevent a British gunboat simply following our blockade runners into harbour, and they can hardly evade while entering dock."

Lincoln nodded his understanding.

"Well, Gideon, it seems you will be earning your pay," he said.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
In OTL, the US got $69M of $111M government revenue directly from customs in 1862-3, and much of the remaining revenue was from the Goldfields in California. They also raised 596 million from printing money and war bonds.

TTL they are pretty much down to printing money and bonds, and the war bonds may be a harder sale...
 

Saphroneth

Banned
And to follow up on that, it's probably useful information to provide that roughly 42% of US trade was with Britain - so about $29M of that government revenue would evaporate immediately before the blockade's even imposed. The one-third figure I use for what gets caught might suggest that the US government would get (2/3 x $40M = $27M) of their customs revenue, but the one-third figure assumes blockade runner type vessels only (i.e. fast steamers specifically) are challenging the blockade to begin with. So US customs revenue is going to be lower than that - even before you factor in how the US is having to incentivize ships to trade there, and to pay quite high wages to the blockade runners to boot (as well as buy the ships).

$32 million was bullion from California, Nevada, Oregon and Colorado. The Colorado bullion might make it east, with great difficulty; the rest will not, and that's another hit of $30M to US government revenue.

Estimate of yearly revenue is about
Customs $69M OTL => $20M TTL (generous)
Bullion £32M OTL => $2M TTL
Other sources $10M OTL => $8M TTL (general impact of economic downturn)

Without extra taxes, the Union's government income is roughly $30M per annum. To spend the same amount as OTL they would have to raise an extra $80M in war bonds and printing money, which leaves them with $30M income and $680M "borrowing" - roughly this is 96% of government income coming from loans and bonds and 4% through actual revenue generation.

This is roughly what Confederate finances looked like in their worst years.
 
Where do you get $680 M in borrowing from? I get $111 M in revenue before the Trent incident kicks off on your numbers, OTL borrowing over the course of the war was about $2.2 Bn of which $150 M was sold by the end of 1861. Essentially once Jay Cooke & Company got involved the Union was able to raise as much money as it wanted to, but before that they were unable to sell all of the bonds that they were willing to issue.

It looks to me as if in an 1861 war the budget is just going to take a direct hit of $80 M which they aren't able to get from elsewhere. I'm not sure if they can print money or not - until 1861 the US government would make payments in specie, which essentially makes devaluing the currency impossible. Shifting from specie straight to devalued fiat money might be more a shock than the system can take, especially in wartime...
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Where do you get $680 M in borrowing from? I get $111 M in revenue before the Trent incident kicks off on your numbers, OTL borrowing over the course of the war was about $2.2 Bn of which $150 M was sold by the end of 1861. Essentially once Jay Cooke & Company got involved the Union was able to raise as much money as it wanted to, but before that they were unable to sell all of the bonds that they were willing to issue.
I'm using the 1862-3 year as it's a complete year for which I have the data to hand. As for why I don't nix the Union economy based on lack of bond sales, see below!
ED: also, I'm using "borrowing" as a catchall term when I refer to $680M. It's "bonds plus printing money".

It looks to me as if in an 1861 war the budget is just going to take a direct hit of $80 M which they aren't able to get from elsewhere. I'm not sure if they can print money or not - until 1861 the US government would make payments in specie, which essentially makes devaluing the currency impossible. Shifting from specie straight to devalued fiat money might be more a shock than the system can take, especially in wartime...
The war really starts in early 1862 (specifically the declaration of war is on about 9th January 1862).
Historically there was a massive bank run on the threat of war with Britain, and I think there's definitely an argument that the Union economy would outright collapse under the strain of a blockade (cut to revenue) plus loss of California gold (cut to revenue) and the pre-existing bank run - not for nothing did Lincoln say "the bottom is out of the tub", and the situation was stabilized with fiat money after the crisis was over. (I think historically they did have some specie in the vaults, but a lot of it was "spoken for")

However, in the interest of being fair (because I am well aware that my own position is inclined to see all the doom for the Union) I allowed a number of handwaves to problems I could see. Those are:
1) The production of rifles at Springfield does continue, albeit at a lower rate than OTL.
2) There is enough gunpowder to prosecute the expanded war at least into June.
3) The Union's finances do not completely implode; indeed I assume the economy is handled by way of significant amounts of printing money and bond sales and that this merely causes inflation instead of an outright collapse.
4) The Union's ironclad program goes significantly faster than OTL, as does their rollout of 8" Parrott rifles and 15" Dahlgren guns.
5) The Union can get hold of enough heavy guns to arm gunboats for the Lakes and put in forts up and down the Eastern Seaboard.

Essentially I assume all of these problems are "handled but barely" instead of causing an outright Union collapse.
 
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Saphroneth

Banned
Hm, perhaps tomorrow I should do another in-universe piece of analysis. Anyone got a suggestion for a distinguished (note does not mean correct) military opinion on a topic by an officer from a country?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
French analysis of the Trent Ground/Naval wars?
I have this suspicion they wouldn't consider the ground war very interesting, they'd see it as Just Miltia Get Beaten Up By Regulars. The US was theoretically using French doctrine, but they screwed it up so pervasively that'll come across as the excuse.

Artillery-wise, there might be more for them (a lot of long ranged counterbattery) but nothing huge.

And navally, well, again it more or less confirms their existing views on armour vs forts, rifles, that kind of thing.
 
I note you said distinguished officer ......
A Prussian? Moltke the Elder?
Who were sent as observers? I know an English officer was at Gettysburg
Perhaps a South American General from the Argentine or Peru?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
I note you said distinguished officer ......
A Prussian? Moltke the Elder?
It would be interesting to see what the Prussians thought about it, though it would probably mostly be talking in very unimpressed terms about the operational manoeuvring of the Americans.
If it's an Old Prussian officer they'd have sharp words about bayonet charge conduct, whereas an officer more aware of the value of fire would be more inclined to rave about marksmanship.
 
It would be interesting to see what the Prussians thought about it, though it would probably mostly be talking in very unimpressed terms about the operational manoeuvring of the Americans.
If it's an Old Prussian officer they'd have sharp words about bayonet charge conduct, whereas an officer more aware of the value of fire would be more inclined to rave about marksmanship.
And a comparison of Landwehr v American Regulars!!!
 

Saphroneth

Banned
And a comparison of Landwehr v American Regulars!!!

That's the funny thing. At least in the ACW, the Regulars dissappeared without trace into the Volunteers and as far as I can tell were mostly used as provosts. I imagine something similar would happen in Trent, with a bit of "sending them to NY because the Mayor was getting iffy".
 
There would be some interesting comparison between the more professional arms (artilery and cavalry roles) and their use in the American theatre compared to the European theatre. Von Bredow perhaps?
 
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