Avro Arrow TL (NOT CANADA-WANK)
- Thread starter Fearless Leader
- Start date
??? I can't see him winning the 1980 primaries, and if he wins America is in for a world of hurt. The man, aside from being a racist, was a poor governor and there's no reason to think he would have been anything other than a disaster as President.
If Wallace hadn't been shot he would have run in 1972 as a third-party candidate. 1968 was to get known (in Southern politics parlance) and 1972 was to win.
I really doubt he's still around and relevant in 1980.
Well it's Bob Dole (and has been since before your POD)
. Neither Scoop Jackson nor Moynihan would accept being Wallace's VP since the entire Democratic Party establishment outside the South (and much of the South establishment too) hates Wallace. Of course I can't see Wallace winning either the nomination or the Presidency in 1980 either.
Jack Kemp's possible, certainly, especially in a Republican Party that's strongly and consistently supported by blacks (I'll get to that in a sec). Check out his urban development and housing strategies.
However he's a stronger supply-sider than Reagan ever was, so expect some huge deficits and massive tax cuts.
The GOP won a majority in 1994 because the Southern Democratic congressmen were retiring and the Democratic Party was viewed as corrupt. In a Democratic Party that had Wallace of all people as President the Southern states would remain Democratic, and the Democratic Party would drift rightward on social issues.
Frankly Wallace as President is going to change both the Republican & Democratic parties. The Dems are going rightward fast on social issues, and probably a heavy spending but hands-off approach to states & cities (we'll give you money, spend it how you like).
The Republicans are interesting. Without the Southern vote the two main wings will stay balanced—conservatives and the progressives. The influx of ex-Democrat neo-conservatives will alter their foreign policy, but no social conservatives means the libertarians can find enough support with the progressive on social issues. To do so, they'll probably accept neo-liberal economic policy from the somewhat altered conservative wing.
Republicans post-Wallace: neo-conservative foreign policy, neo-liberal economic policy, libertarian social policy. Probably not a majority at any time, blacks however should strongly support the Republicans because of Wallace's legacy. I think blacks ran from the Republicans because of Nixon & Goldwater, and they'll run even faster from a openly and overtly racist Democratic President. It'll be seen as betrayal: blacks supported the Dems only to have the Dems turn on them.
Democrats with Wallace: socially conservative, liberal in the American social democratic sense, around as anti-communist as the Republicans, possibly a little isolationist, and they've abandoned the Kennedy/Johnson civil rights heritage.
George W. Bush wouldn't be VP potential in 1992 unless butterflies have literally made him a different person.
Al Gore was a contender in 1988 and 1992, but in all honesty I don't see him surviving as Senator to 2000. He'd be taken down by a conservative Democrat in a primary fight.
Fearless Leader
Donor
Remember that Wallace in OTL became a "born again Christian" in the 70's (an event that still occurs in TTL) and began to moderate considerably on his views, especially those regarding race. In TTL he's a)not shot, and b)still a "born again Christian" which leads to him winning the 1980 primary due primarily to his promise to "make America strong" with Henry M. Jackson being placed on the ticket to "balance the ticket".
Or at least, that was my reasoning behind it, if it's faulty let me know.
I was thinking of having "Dubya" be slightly different than OTL, serving in Vietnam with the Airforce, being shot down, captured, then escaping. This changes him a good deal and makes him a different politician...
Or at least, that was my reasoning behind it, if it's faulty let me know.
I was thinking of having "Dubya" be slightly different than OTL, serving in Vietnam with the Airforce, being shot down, captured, then escaping. This changes him a good deal and makes him a different politician...
Suggestion then, replace Bush Jr. with McCain....or not, just thought it would be an idea.
The Super Terminal is further away from major urban centers than the Burrard Inlet. If the nuke was detonated during business hours in the Burrard Inlet.... downtown Vancouver bears the brunt of it, and having built-up urban city is pretty much a death sentence when you're talking overpressure and a wavefront.
A (C)F104 Widowmaker that is respected, OK, I can suspend disbelief that much. A WINGED SSTO, designed in the '70s that actually works?!? ASB is more like it, sorry.
Mmm....I wouldn't say ASB Necessarily, perhaps Implausible, but Aerospace Industries are much more respected and funded ITTL, although the early 80's may be a bit early even so. Meh, doesn't distract from the overall intriguing natue of the TL; by the by is there some kinda of Best (insert nation here) TL Award, I think this one warrants it, Bravo!
Doesn't matter to blacks. Doesn't matter to the Democratic Party who would have kept a great deal of the South in 1968 without Wallace (I doubt the South in '68 would have gone for Nixon as they did Goldwater), and who would have done better elsewhere—enough to win 1968. Essentially they're electing a guy who a) will prevent blacks from voting Democratic for the next twenty+ years, and b) he cost them 1968 and foisted Nixon on the nation.
In 1980? If Kennedy wants it, it's his. If Wallace is in he'll sweep the South and compete in the industrial (blue-collar) states. Remember in 1980 the Democratic primaries were a proportional delegate slug fest. The modern quick win didn't really exist in 1980 (witness HW Bush's Big 'Mo' and see how far it got him). You can lose twenty primaries and still only be a couple % behind in delegates.
Could Wallace win the nomination? I suppose, but it would be nasty and pretty much break up the liberal and conservative wings of the Democratic Party. Basically the Southern Democrats survive and prosper, and keep their conservative (especially on social issues) ideology and electoral clout to the Democrats. Could he win a general election in a bad economic climate? Maybe—but Reagan was a far better speaker and at least as good a campaigner.
I mean if you really want Wallace you can probably have him but he's going to massively alter the political landscape of the United States as I outlined in my previous post.
As for OTL Bush 43—sure, of course if he's a different person he can be VP in 1992. It just seems a little silly having all these OTL people slot in around the same time as they did IOTL in the ATL.
My own list of presidents...
I like your TL, Fearless Leader, except for your choice of US presidents after 1980 (if Wallace isn't shot, he runs in 1972 as a third-party canadidate, and pretty much has shot his wad by 1980).
Here's my list:
Richard Nixon (1969-1977)
Ronald Reagan (1977-1981)
Edward Kennedy (or John Glenn) (1981-1989) (1)
Lloyd Bentsen (1989-1993) (2)
Bob Dole (1993-2001) (3)
Bob Graham (2001-2003) (4)
Bill Richardson (2003-present) (5)
(1) The entire Democratic establishment hated George Wallace. Plus, Edward Kennedy is from a northeastern state, and is electable (assuming no Chappaquiddick. If Chappaquiddick still occurs, I'll replace him with John Glenn).
(2) Lloyd Bentsen is from Texas, and Glenn in this TL would need a southerner to balance the fact that he is from Ohio (or, if it is Kennedy, he might try the Boston-Austin connection that worked for his brother in 1960).
(3) Bob Dole is more electable than Jack Kemp, IMO (and he is the more likely candidate). Plus, there is no war on terror, and Dole still wins in 1996.
(4) Bob Graham is nominated in this TL and beats Jack Kemp (without his dad as president, George W. is unlikely to be more than a governor of Texas in this TL).
(5) The Indo-Pakistan war occurs in this TL as well as in your TL, except, in addition to Vancouver, New York and Washington are nuked, triggering this TL's War on Terror. BTW, Bill Richardson was nominated to secure the Hispanic vote for the Democrats (in this TL, he is New Mexico governor in 1994).
Just my 2 cents.
I like your TL, Fearless Leader, except for your choice of US presidents after 1980 (if Wallace isn't shot, he runs in 1972 as a third-party canadidate, and pretty much has shot his wad by 1980).
Here's my list:
Richard Nixon (1969-1977)
Ronald Reagan (1977-1981)
Edward Kennedy (or John Glenn) (1981-1989) (1)
Lloyd Bentsen (1989-1993) (2)
Bob Dole (1993-2001) (3)
Bob Graham (2001-2003) (4)
Bill Richardson (2003-present) (5)
(1) The entire Democratic establishment hated George Wallace. Plus, Edward Kennedy is from a northeastern state, and is electable (assuming no Chappaquiddick. If Chappaquiddick still occurs, I'll replace him with John Glenn).
(2) Lloyd Bentsen is from Texas, and Glenn in this TL would need a southerner to balance the fact that he is from Ohio (or, if it is Kennedy, he might try the Boston-Austin connection that worked for his brother in 1960).
(3) Bob Dole is more electable than Jack Kemp, IMO (and he is the more likely candidate). Plus, there is no war on terror, and Dole still wins in 1996.
(4) Bob Graham is nominated in this TL and beats Jack Kemp (without his dad as president, George W. is unlikely to be more than a governor of Texas in this TL).
(5) The Indo-Pakistan war occurs in this TL as well as in your TL, except, in addition to Vancouver, New York and Washington are nuked, triggering this TL's War on Terror. BTW, Bill Richardson was nominated to secure the Hispanic vote for the Democrats (in this TL, he is New Mexico governor in 1994).
Just my 2 cents.
Fearless Leader
Donor
Remember that in this TL, the CF-104 is more along the lines of OTL's CL-1200 which if put into production in OTL would have been a half decent fighterplane, in TTL it's introduced earlier giving it a boosted reputation...
As for the SSTO, remember that a)It's an international venture (international ventures being a result of TTL's Apollo program) so mucho capital, b)The B-70 and F-104 are built in TTL providing a neccessary technological boost. and finally c) From what I can gather, similiar ideas were proposed during the designing of OTL's Space Shuttle but weren't pursued. Given the other two factors I'd say it's at least somewhat plausible...
Oh, indeed. An unmodified one with a good reputation would be not just unlikely but ASB.
A TSTO, may be. Lots of fully reusable TSTO ideas around at the time the Shuttle was designed. Some BALLISTIC SSTOs ideas were played with in the time period. The only winged SSTO design I know of that had ANY connexion with reality was HOTOL[/quote], and 1) it relied on unproven scramjets 2) was found not to be feasible on further investigation 3) is a lot later than what we're talking about, 4) wouldn't have a large payload.
SSTOs are HARD, very hard. Winged SSTOs are VERY VERY hard. You notice the US gave up on the sort-of reusable, semi-expendable more than one stage Shuttle OTL....
Ming777
Monthly Donor
Bump
I hope that the Vancouver nuke was in Point Roberts (the Super Terminal). Otherwise, you'd be talking to a dead guy.
So, the WTC gets blown up the first time. It's probably even more horrible than OTL. Lest we forget, ITTL the whole North Tower fell on the South Tower like a domino. There's like zero hope of even anyone getting rescued in that.
Oh, and thank God that gosh darned Helleyer wasn't in power to screw the Canadian Armed Forces. He's left a dark mark on our forces.
Wow, reading this make me wish this time line were mostly true. Although I would love it even more if somehow the flag somehow became OTL Canadian Flag.
I hope that the Vancouver nuke was in Point Roberts (the Super Terminal). Otherwise, you'd be talking to a dead guy.
So, the WTC gets blown up the first time. It's probably even more horrible than OTL. Lest we forget, ITTL the whole North Tower fell on the South Tower like a domino. There's like zero hope of even anyone getting rescued in that.
Oh, and thank God that gosh darned Helleyer wasn't in power to screw the Canadian Armed Forces. He's left a dark mark on our forces.
Wow, reading this make me wish this time line were mostly true. Although I would love it even more if somehow the flag somehow became OTL Canadian Flag.