Wagner’s Germany: An Axis Victory TL
- Thread starter CrimsonKing
- Start date
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Well, it won't happen like that exactly, but you'll see.
Now that you bring it up, I see the point about a different course of events during the crisis being an interesting POD by itself. However, in the context of your TL, Hitler is planning on a war in 1939, right? Which would lead me to think he wouldn't be too upset over the war breaking out as OTL. Or is the issue preserving surprise."
Well I'm curious regarding your solution. In my TL Hitler needs the surprise, but he also needs the angle-French drawing the line publicly somewhere. That is his excuse for starting the war. Your Munch solution makes sense, but sharons the rest of Czekkoslovakia does not make sense in my TL.
I may use it if you dont mind?
... the "new" OP ...
Luckily only 'table talks', if published ...no ... Non-Agression pact with either Poland or SU I would assume
... but NICE
Glad you like them! I hope you enjoy what follows as well...
I don't mind at all. Here is the next update.
Comments and questions are welcome as always.
Chapter 4
The Molotov-Neurath Accords and the Danzig Crisis
“By means of this understanding with Russia, the bastard of Versailles will be brought to heel. Our economy will be removed from the threat of blockade, and our people from the hunger, which was their bane in the last war. The Poles will yield to us just as the Czechs did.”
-Heinrich Wagner, explaining the rationale for the Molotov-Neurath Accords to the Oberkommando der Volkswehr
The Molotov-Neurath Accords and the Danzig Crisis
“By means of this understanding with Russia, the bastard of Versailles will be brought to heel. Our economy will be removed from the threat of blockade, and our people from the hunger, which was their bane in the last war. The Poles will yield to us just as the Czechs did.”
-Heinrich Wagner, explaining the rationale for the Molotov-Neurath Accords to the Oberkommando der Volkswehr
To most outside observers, the agreement over the Sudetenland which had been reached at Nuremberg seemed to inaugurate a period of peace and stability for Europe. It seemed that a workable arrangement had at last been reached with the National Socialist government in Berlin and its revanchist and expansionist tendencies. To be sure, other potential flashpoints remained, such as that over the ethnically German city of Danzig and other territories which had been given to Poland by the Treaty of Versailles, but there was no reason to believe that they could not also be resolved through diplomacy.
Vyacheslav Molotov signing the Non-Aggression Pact on behalf of the Soviet Union, with Stalin in white in the background.
The leadership of one nation begged to differ. To Joseph Stalin and his colleagues in the Kremlin, the “betrayal” of Czechoslovakia at Nuremberg foreshadowed the creation of what was one of the worst strategic nightmares for the Soviet Union since the Bolshevik Revolution, the creation of an anti-Soviet alliance composed of several of the capitalist imperialist powers. To be sure, the worst possible combination, an active alliance of the “bourgeois capitalists” of Britain and France with the “fascist capitalists” of Germany, Japan, and Italy against the USSR did not appear to be immediately in the offing, at least not yet. But the reality was bad enough. It seemed that the bourgeois democracies had given the NSVP regime and its allies a green light to initiate war with the Soviet Union in the hope either that the latter would be crushed in order that the promise of proletarian revolution throughout the world be extinguished, or that the two sides would exhaust each other in years of bloody warfare to the benefit of the neutrals. For Stalin, either outcome was a daunting prospect. In early 1939 it appeared that the final pieces were falling into place. In the Far East, Japan’s Kwantung Army continually probed the defenses of the Red Army in a series of border clashes which threatened to escalate. In Germany, the denunciations of Bolshevism by Wagner’s Propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbels reached a fever pitch, and over the winter a series of highly publicized visits by senior German civilian and military officials to Warsaw took place, with the unmistakable implication that an agreement with Poland to allow its territory to be used as a staging ground for an invasion of the USSR might soon be reached. It therefore came as a great surprise when in the spring of that year the German Foreign Minister, Konstantin von Neurath, arrived in Moscow on a highly secret mission bearing not an ultimatum but an offer of economic and military cooperation which amounted to a near alliance in its own right.
German troops and vehicles on the Polish border in the summer of 1939.
In order to grasp the reasoning behind this apparently inexplicable offer, which went against every one of the proclaimed principles of National Socialism, it is necessary to understand the centrality in the minds of Wagner and his associates of the defeat of World War One and their determination to avoid a repetition of that catastrophe. In a more general sense, the history of the Second Reich appeared as an example from which lessons both positive and negative could be learned. And in the series of Nineteenth Century conflicts from which that earlier Reich had been born, Wagner found a counterpoint to the one in which it had died. In the 1860s and 70s, Prussia’s “Iron Chancellor,” Otto von Bismarck, had scrupulously avoided fighting more than one enemy at a time and in so doing had won a series of quick and decisive victories over Denmark, the Hapsburg Empire, and Germany’s ancestral enemy France. In particular, Bismarck had cultivated Russia as a friendly power, in part by offering cooperation against Polish nationalists which irked Moscow. The contrast with the situation of 1914, in which an attempt to win another quick, decisive victory over France was stymied to a substantial extent because of the simultaneous need to fight Russia to the east, was revealing. The desire to avoid a two-front war was also heightened by the belief, inherited by Wagner from Hitler, that international Jewry exercised behind the scenes control in Moscow, London, and Washington, a fear which ironically rather paralleled the fear of capitalist encirclement held by Stalin.
This reasoning led Wagner to the conclusion that, however irksome it might be, it was necessary to reach an understanding with Moscow prior to making the final, irrevocable move in the west, as Bismarck had done. And as in that earlier arrangement, the pact would be sealed over the corpse of Poland, and all the nations which lay between Germany and the Soviet Union, between the Volkswehr and the Red Army. But what was eventually worked out between Neurath, and Stalin and his own foreign minister Vyacheslav Molotov, in the spring of 1939 went beyond strategic considerations and into the purchase of economic necessities which Germany was sure to need if war came and a resultant loss of its overseas trade due to blockade. From the USSR would be gotten, in exchange for advanced technologies in such areas as shipping and aeronautical engineering, imports of grain and oil, and other scarce commodities, the lack of which had proven so crippling in the last war.
The German and Soviet spheres of influence as agreed to in the Molotov-Neurath Accords. In some places, the actual boundary was slightly different.
It was the political cooperation, however, which grabbed attention around the world when the agreement, formally known as the German-Soviet Treaty of Non-Aggression, but which came to be more commonly referred to as the Molotov-Neurath Accords after the foreign ministers of the two countries, was formally announced in March of 1939, causing shock and consternation in Britain and France, which had believed German-Soviet hostility to be insoluble. So as not to completely alienate Britain and France, Wagner refrained, contrary to the advice of some of his ministers, from the annexation of the Czech rump before the resolution of the current crisis, saying "As a military power, Czechoslovakia is dead. It will not come back to life if given a little more time before the body is buried." During the summer, the two new confederates renewed their territorial disputes as the Accords had stipulated with Poland, which according to Goebbels was engaging in “intolerable and outrageous persecution of its German, Belarussian, Ukrainian, and Baltic minorities.” This put the French and British into the dilemma of whether to support Poland or leave the unfortunate nation to its fate. Matters came to a head when in late July Berlin and Moscow announced that they were commencing mobilization. The continent teetered on the brink of war. In the end the Western Allies decided against forcing the issue, seeing the obvious impossibility of lending practical support to Poland against the combined might of Germany and the USSR and the real possibility of the outbreak of war with both simultaneously. In early August, Warsaw announced its agreement to the German and Soviet demands. Germany was to be given the border it had held in 1914, and the approximate eastern half of Poland which had large Belarussian and Ukrainian minorities was to be handed over to the USSR. Poland retained access to the Danzig harbor as a venue for imports and exports, but was also forced into agreeing to close economic and military cooperation with Germany on what amounted to vassal terms.
Note: The difference compared to OTL which causes the British and French to decide against supporting Poland is, that in OTL while Poland looked bad for taking advantage of the Munich Agreement, it only did so after it had been concluded. By contrast, ITTL, with its participation in the negotiations (alongside Hungary) at the critical part of the negotiations, it is seen as one of the causes of the decision to abandon Czechoslovakia in the first place. In addition, in OTL the talks which led to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact took place after the German seizure of the rump Czechoslovakia, which led to the British and French becoming interested in cooperating with the USSR against Germany and a resultant strengthening of Stalin’s bargaining position. Here, Wagner concludes the alternate version of the pact and presses the issue with Poland before the annexation while opinion in France and Britain still looks on the Sudeten agreement favorably, and was able to secure a more active Soviet role in pressuring Poland.
Next, The Cold Peace and the American Election, after which will come Part 3, Drive to the West.
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Interesting.
Is Poland now effectively reduced to the territory of the Central Powers' client state of the Kingdom of Poland? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Poland_(1916–18))
It'll definitely benefit Germany to keep rump Poland as a collaborationist puppet state like Slovakia instead of a giant reservation like the General-Government of OTL. Less of a manpower drain to garrison, less German troops stuck there on permanent occupation duty, less Polish resistance, a lot more Polish collaborationist support, another allied Fascist country in the Axis, and far less wasted resources from not trying to genocide the Poles into a serf race trapped in a giant reservation like OTL. Good move.
Is Poland now effectively reduced to the territory of the Central Powers' client state of the Kingdom of Poland? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Poland_(1916–18))
It'll definitely benefit Germany to keep rump Poland as a collaborationist puppet state like Slovakia instead of a giant reservation like the General-Government of OTL. Less of a manpower drain to garrison, less German troops stuck there on permanent occupation duty, less Polish resistance, a lot more Polish collaborationist support, another allied Fascist country in the Axis, and far less wasted resources from not trying to genocide the Poles into a serf race trapped in a giant reservation like OTL. Good move.
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Hmmm, ok : Wagner is 'quicker' in getting the pact with Stalin, too quick for the allies to consider talking to Stalin by themself.
However, after Hitler 'broke' the Munich agreement, appeasement ended with trying to boost Polands position as the 'logical' next victim with quite strong diplomatic tools - though only diplomatics wihtout much more tangible.
Even though not with much of military means but at least they stood in for Poland and declared war against Hitler - after the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.
Not completly - time factor - but ... very much the same they face now in ITTL.
What makes such a big difference, that the wallies didn't steped back in OTL ?
However, after Hitler 'broke' the Munich agreement, appeasement ended with trying to boost Polands position as the 'logical' next victim with quite strong diplomatic tools - though only diplomatics wihtout much more tangible.
Even though not with much of military means but at least they stood in for Poland and declared war against Hitler - after the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.
Not completly - time factor - but ... very much the same they face now in ITTL.
What makes such a big difference, that the wallies didn't steped back in OTL ?
Well, the major difference is that SU is part of the deterrent. Standing up for Poland Will be extremely costly ITTL.
The other side of the coin is that Wagner now loses any credibility. The wallies have to consider further aggression, and the question is more when than whether or not to drawing the line.
I actually Can see the hopelessnes in declaring war against SU and Germany at the same time. How is that war to be won. On the other hand, there were plans to help Finland IOTL so maybe the wallies were set for
a reckless decision. It could go either way.
My suggestions above is basically ways Wagner can change the odds
Further in his favor.
Rough day for Poland...
The PG 07 TOC had been lock'd out due to the two week span, I believe
new TOC.
TOC
CrimsonKing..AH..Prologue - The Rise of Hitler and NSVP
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_01 ---- Night of the Hangman
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_02 ---- Hjalmar Schacht and the First Four-Year Plan
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_03 ---- The Rising Storm
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_04 ---- Turning Point
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_05 ---- The Volkswehr: Leadership and Doctrine
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_06 ---- Appendix: The Abwehr and German Intelligence
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_07 ---- Weapons of the Volkswehr: Heer and Luftwaffe
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_08 ---- Vessels of the Kriegsmarine and Special Weapons
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_09 ---- The Axis Alliance and the Nuremberg Agreement
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_10 ---- The Molotov-Neurath Accords and the Danzig Crisis
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_11 ---- The Cold Peace and the American Election
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_12 ---- The Alsace Crisis and the Coming of War
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_13 ---- Blood on the Ice: The Beginning in Scandanavia
xxXXxx
The PG 07 TOC had been lock'd out due to the two week span, I believe
new TOC.
TOC
CrimsonKing..AH..Prologue - The Rise of Hitler and NSVP
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_01 ---- Night of the Hangman
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_02 ---- Hjalmar Schacht and the First Four-Year Plan
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_03 ---- The Rising Storm
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_04 ---- Turning Point
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_05 ---- The Volkswehr: Leadership and Doctrine
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_06 ---- Appendix: The Abwehr and German Intelligence
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_07 ---- Weapons of the Volkswehr: Heer and Luftwaffe
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_08 ---- Vessels of the Kriegsmarine and Special Weapons
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_09 ---- The Axis Alliance and the Nuremberg Agreement
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_10 ---- The Molotov-Neurath Accords and the Danzig Crisis
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_11 ---- The Cold Peace and the American Election
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_12 ---- The Alsace Crisis and the Coming of War
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_13 ---- Blood on the Ice: The Beginning in Scandanavia
xxXXxx
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Glad you like it! Indeed, all of the benefits you lay out are real. I would also add one more, which was that Polish intelligence was rather good and is now at the disposal of the Abwehr. But I'm getting ahead of myself...
As far as borders go, the WW1 Kingdom of Poland's are a good approximation, although I was thinking TTL's Poland retains slightly more in the east.
A good point. The difference however in this situation which leads me to believe it is at least a possibility that Poland would capitulate as described in the update is that in OTL its leaders could believe, not that they could hold off Germany indefinitely, but that they might be able to hold out long enough for a Wallied attack in the west to take the pressure off. Here they are facing the prospect of war with the combined militaries of Germany and the Soviet Union, with no prospect of help.
You're right that it was a risk in OTL, but in this situation, with Soviet participation in pressuring Poland more active, it is greater. Still, it is correct that it is a matter of degree and I do acknowledge it is a possibility in this situation that the guarantee might still be given, the question is one of probability.
Thanks! You are correct that using plebiscites would be the best way to reduce the risk of war, the thing is, though, that having secured the more active cooperation of the Soviet Union, Wagner wouldn't be particularly unhappy if it came to war given that he'd have the USSR on his side, although he didn't plan on it breaking out this early and it would be a surprise.
It's the prospect of fighting both the USSR and Germany, as Gudestein says, and also the fact that Poland is seen as having played a major part in the outcome of the Czech crisis.
That said, it is certainly not inconceivable, given that there were serious proposals in OTL to go after the Baku oilfields and come to Finland's help during the Winter War, that the Anglo-French might be willing to get into a war with Berlin and Moscow. But is that really an interesting prospect from the point of view of the TL? I mean, the combination of the improved German military and economic situation compared to OTL 1939, with the USSR as an active co-belligerent, is such that Britain and France would simply get demolished in short order, and I tend to think that situations which involve more evenly matched adversaries are more engaging.
The above is completely accurate. With these developments, the Wallies have lost all their illusions about the possibility of coexistence with Wagner's Germany, and the next crisis means war.
Thanks! The TOC is quite helpful.
I like it that you include the motives also for talking bad decisions. I've had some problems in my TL by sticking to Raeder's beliefs for the KM or Hitler moving on Austria if not stopped by Mussolini, but it add's plausibility contrary to what some critics would say.
In your case it drives a reckless decision that is not punished, which adds to the list of lucky breaks Wagner gets.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with this and long as these lucky events are recorded.
Strategically viewed, if the Wallies perceive the SU/German alliance as strong, there is only Italy, Japan and the US. There is some wooing to be described here.
Thus, they have to get Italy and/or Japan on board to change the strategic outlook. The US goes without saying. That is a tall order which is also the possible motive for starting the war when Poland was still taking part.
Overall, a fantastic piece of work.
This is one of the criticisms of your TL which I personally think is least justified. You're having Raeder adhere to his OTL beliefs even when they are not the optimal path for the Germans to take, which is the opposite of giving Hitler and his associates unreasonable amounts of foresight.
I also think it would be rather contrived to have him choose the ideal way all the time. Even given that his ego isn't as big as Hitler's, he's probably feeling very confident based on the success of his endeavors so far.
As far as Japan and Italy go, how exactly would the British and French get their cooperation by this point? Given the extensive discussion of them in your TL, you may have more knowledge on this subject than me, but my understanding is that, for Italy, Anglo-French opposition to the Ethiopian invasion combined the Mussolini's aspirations to dominate the Meditarannean had soured Wallied-Italian relations and a similar statement could be made about Anglo-Japanese relations given British opposition to Japan during the Second Sino-Japanese War and colonial rivalries in Asia. For the record, I'm planning on having Italy and Japan both be pro-German neutrals as in OTL at the outbreak of the war.
Thanks again!
As far as Japan and Italy go, how exactly would the British and French get their cooperation by this point? Given the extensive discussion of them in your TL, you may have more knowledge on this subject than me, but my understanding is that, for Italy, Anglo-French opposition to the Ethiopian invasion combined the Mussolini's aspirations to dominate the Meditarannean had soured Wallied-Italian relations and a similar statement could be made about Anglo-Japanese relations given British opposition to Japan during the Second Sino-Japanese War and colonial rivalries in Asia. For the record, I'm planning on having Italy and Japan both be pro-German neutrals as in OTL at the outbreak of the war.
Thanks again!
Well, I certainly dont know how to make this work from the Wallies point of you. It is simply that their strategic options dictate that they need fruens. They Can try to:
1:get the US on board for Real.
2: break of Italy (ITTL give him all he wants)
3: persuade Jspan to go north.
4: heavily support KMT, but this fails if the confrontation with Jspan gets hot
Or, try all of the above, but fail to seal the deal in time. Then Japan and Italy Will side with the Winners. The latter us much like OTL. Major difference is that the wallies position is obviously bad. The US might worry where this is going and take a more active course.
Ah, so the little change has lead to a massive butterfly. Instead of the General Government we have a puppet Poland with the general borders of Congress Poland during the days of Imperial Russia. Should allow for a much easier time for the Wehrmacht when they do challenge the Western powers.
Is Smigly-Ritz going to be another German puppet like Horthy or the Romanians?
I'm hoping a Republican wins the 1940 election, but an internationalist one such as Dewey.
Is Smigly-Ritz going to be another German puppet like Horthy or the Romanians?
I'm hoping a Republican wins the 1940 election, but an internationalist one such as Dewey.
Penny for The Guy
Banned
You places your money, and you takes your chances.
Well, I would bet -- this being Nazi wank as our esteemed host has proposed -- somebody like Taft is more likely.
But, you never know.
Well, I would bet -- this being Nazi wank as our esteemed host has proposed -- somebody like Taft is more likely.
But, you never know.
Oh, I agree that the British and French can try to do such, but with the exception of continued support for the KMT I simply doubt that they can actually accomplish those goals. Also, they might not have the same sense of urgency without having to fight both Germany and the Soviet Union at once.
An apt comparison. The Polish relationship to Germany is now very much like that of Hungary or Romania, perhaps with a slightly greater degree of control, given its closer geographic proximity.
Well, I would bet -- this being Nazi wank as our esteemed host has proposed -- somebody like Taft is more likely.
But, you never know.
As for who the next President will be... come and see.
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Re: The British and French non-guarantee to Poland. The thought has occurred to me that I could just have the Germans go for both the M-N Accords and press the Danzig issue before annexing the rump Czechoslovakia. That would further reduce the likelihood of Wallied support for Poland.
All right then, I'm seriously considering it now. Does anyone else support the idea?
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Sudeten-crisis and corridor-crisis at the same time ... with the stance of appeasement prevailing and fear of war on the westerners side ... IMO well within possibility.
... and since this is an alleged Axis-wank
GO FOR IT Sounds logical. Though I like how you did it here as well
Penny for The Guy
Banned
Well...
Well, this IS a Nazi wank. Whichever gets further down the road of total world domination...
Or you could experiment with an ATL inside the ATL? (The Iron Dream comes to mind, as well as some other posters threads with wheels within wheels.)
Well, this IS a Nazi wank. Whichever gets further down the road of total world domination...
Or you could experiment with an ATL inside the ATL? (The Iron Dream comes to mind, as well as some other posters threads with wheels within wheels.)