Wagner’s Germany: An Axis Victory TL

[cortz#9]

Well, this IS a Nazi wank. Whichever gets further down the road of total world domination...
Or you could experiment with an ATL inside the ATL? (The Iron Dream comes to mind, as well as some other posters threads with wheels within wheels.)

Interesting that you bring up the idea of an ATL within an ATL, the other day someone asked me if there was a term for an "ATL within an ATL"?
So does anyone know if there is such a thing?

 

[Penny for The Guy]

"Terms" we don't need no stinkin' "Terms"!

Interesting that you bring up the idea of an ATL within an ATL, the other day someone asked me if there was a term for an "ATL within an ATL"?
So does anyone know if there is such a thing?

Well, from "Weber's Germany", -- this:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=369537

Perhaps "nested scenarios", or "nested realities" as per Tom's notes?

Maybe "Nested Alternaties"? (I really like Nests.)

Also, as mentioned, The Iron Dream by Adolf Hitler (A Norman Spinrad story where AH emigrates to the US and becomes a Sci-fi writer and illustrator.) Haven't seen my copy of the book in years (don't ask about storage problems) but it may have mentioned a term.

OTOH, if there isn't a word for it, we can make our own!!

 

[Not Henry G.]

Yes... wank it as much as we can

 

[Gudestein]

All right then, I'm seriously considering it now. Does anyone else support the idea?

I'll start summarizing the obvious aspects. Combining Munich and Danzig (before taking the rump of Czechoslovakia) makes it plausible that Hitler is after killing the Versailles treaty, and now he may stop.

Downside, Poland and Czechoslovakia are now allies against Germany in this agreement rather than having the Poles as co-belligerents and deserting both of these at once is a major gamble in favor of Hitler's credibility. Which seems incredible.

Considering the discussion we had before on the hopeless strategic situation the allies find them in ITTL, doing this at once means going into this predicament willingly.
I don't see that happening.

You could make it happen if Mussolini comes in to guarantee the deal. i.e. he mediates it and Britain, France and Italy jointly, and ideally with an SU stamp as well, guarantee the leftover's (Poland and Czechoslovakia) borders.
This could actually make sense, but this is deviating from the Nazi wank TL you had planned. It is a very interesting scenario nevertheless.

Then you need to have something in it for Stalin, but that can actually be designed in secret anyways. eg. Stalin get's the Baltics and keep's the Polish border.

PS. This scenario also works if Mussolini is bluffing or later makes his guarantee dependent on concessions in Yugoslavia.

 

[CrimsonKing]

Sudeten-crisis and corridor-crisis at the same time ... with the stance of appeasement prevailing and fear of war on the westerners side ... IMO well within possibility.

... and since this is an alleged Axis-wank GO FOR IT

Sounds logical. Though I like how you did it here as well

Yes... wank it as much as we can

Well, this IS a Nazi wank. Whichever gets further down the road of total world domination...
Or you could experiment with an ATL inside the ATL? (The Iron Dream comes to mind, as well as some other posters threads with wheels within wheels.)

I'll start summarizing the obvious aspects. Combining Munich and Danzig (before taking the rump of Czechoslovakia) makes it plausible that Hitler is after killing the Versailles treaty, and now he may stop.

Downside, Poland and Czechoslovakia are now allies against Germany in this agreement rather than having the Poles as co-belligerents and deserting both of these at once is a major gamble in favor of Hitler's credibility. Which seems incredible.

Considering the discussion we had before on the hopeless strategic situation the allies find them in ITTL, doing this at once means going into this predicament willingly.
I don't see that happening.

You could make it happen if Mussolini comes in to guarantee the deal. i.e. he mediates it and Britain, France and Italy jointly, and ideally with an SU stamp as well, guarantee the leftover's (Poland and Czechoslovakia) borders.
This could actually make sense, but this is deviating from the Nazi wank TL you had planned. It is a very interesting scenario nevertheless.

Then you need to have something in it for Stalin, but that can actually be designed in secret anyways. eg. Stalin get's the Baltics and keep's the Polish border.

PS. This scenario also works if Mussolini is bluffing or later makes his guarantee dependent on concessions in Yugoslavia.

I hope I didn't give the wrong impression. What I meant was have Wagner get the Czech agreement, then conclude the M-N Accords and press the Danzig crisis with Poland, and then take the rump Czechoslovakia, rather than annexing the rump before the Danzig crisis, since the issue was raised that the Wallies would be less likely to abandon Poland if the Germans have already broken the Czech arrangement. I have modified the last update in accordance with the above. As always, feedback including constructive criticism is welcome.

----------​

Interesting that you bring up the idea of an ATL within an ATL, the other day someone asked me if there was a term for an "ATL within an ATL"?
So does anyone know if there is such a thing?

Well, from "Weber's Germany", -- this:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=369537

Perhaps "nested scenarios", or "nested realities" as per Tom's notes?

Maybe "Nested Alternaties"? (I really like Nests.)

Also, as mentioned, The Iron Dream by Adolf Hitler (A Norman Spinrad story where AH emigrates to the US and becomes a Sci-fi writer and illustrator.) Haven't seen my copy of the book in years (don't ask about storage problems) but it may have mentioned a term.

OTOH, if there isn't a word for it, we can make our own!!

I wasn't aware of such a term, but now that it has been brought up, I like "Nested Alternatives" as well.

 

[cortz#9]

<snip>

I wasn't aware of such a term, but now that it has been brought up, I like "Nested Alternatives" as well.

That does sound good.

 

[NoMommsen]

I hope I didn't give the wrong impression. What I meant was have Wagner get the Czech agreement, then conclude the M-N Accords and press the Danzig crisis with Poland, and then take the rump Czechoslovakia, rather than annexing the rump before the Danzig crisis, since the issue was raised that the Wallies would be less likely to abandon Poland if the Germans have already broken the Czech arrangement. I have modified the last update in accordance with the above. As always, feedback including constructive criticism is welcome.

Hmmm, so the next chapter might be about seizing "rump-Czechoslovakia", wich might be in or just before a civil war between the czechs and the slovakians, Stalin "cinvincing" the baltic states given to him by the M-N accord (btw, in the first OTL M-R accord Lithunia was given to germany, only in the 2nd treaty after the (almost completed) fall of Poland Lithunia was trades to stalin for the polish regions betweem Vistula and Brest-Litowsk) and a dreading "winter war" ?

Finally the wallis WILL switch their attitude. ... already on the issue of "rump"-Czechoslovakia ?

 

[cortz#9]

Well, from "Weber's Germany", -- this:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=369537

Perhaps "nested scenarios", or "nested realities" as per Tom's notes?

Maybe "Nested Alternaties"? (I really like Nests.)

Also, as mentioned, The Iron Dream by Adolf Hitler (A Norman Spinrad story where AH emigrates to the US and becomes a Sci-fi writer and illustrator.) Haven't seen my copy of the book in years (don't ask about storage problems) but it may have mentioned a term.

OTOH, if there isn't a word for it, we can make our own!!

Yeah I really like the "Nested Alternaties" term. You may have coined a new one there.
Going to inform my friend Peebothuhlu who plans on writing TL with a nested TL within about this term.

 

[CrimsonKing]

That does sound good.

Yeah I really like the "Nested Alternaties" term. You may have coined a new one there.
Going to inform my friend Peebothuhlu who plans on writing TL with a nested TL within about this term.

Good luck to his TL! As for this one, I might do a Nested Alternative or two at some point, but right now it's just one chapter away from the beginning of the war, which Not Henry G., and others I'm sure, are eager to get to - I know I am.

Hmmm, so the next chapter might be about seizing "rump-Czechoslovakia", wich might be in or just before a civil war between the czechs and the slovakians, Stalin "cinvincing" the baltic states given to him by the M-N accord (btw, in the first OTL M-R accord Lithunia was given to germany, only in the 2nd treaty after the (almost completed) fall of Poland Lithunia was trades to stalin for the polish regions betweem Vistula and Brest-Litowsk) and a dreading "winter war" ?

Finally the wallis WILL switch their attitude. ... already on the issue of "rump"-Czechoslovakia ?

All good questions. I can say, for the Germany/USSR demarcation line in Poland/Lithuania, the arrangement you bring up was agreed to at the outset, unlike in OTL. It can be attributed to butterflies and to Wagner's somewhat stronger bargaining position, he doesn't mind the USSR having one more highly discontent border region acting as a rear area problem and lucrative intelligence source in return for more of Poland...

For the others, the next chapter will cover the annexation of the rump Czechoslovakia. As regards the rest, well, wait and see.

 

[CrimsonKing]

The next update is here.

Comments encouraged.

Chapter 5
The Cold Peace and the American Election​

The Molotov-Neurath Accords and the carving up of Poland between the Nazi and Soviet empires shook the fragile underpinnings of the European peace to its foundations. In particular, the specter of Germany and the Soviet Union working in concert, a possibility which had scarcely been given consideration before, caused not a little lost sleep among the generals in London and Paris. But the final break came when, on September 1st, the rump of Czechoslovakia, the independence of which was in theory guaranteed by the Nuremberg Agreement, was annexed by Germany in all but name and transformed into two puppet states, the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic.(a) The justification given by Wagner was that the action was necessary to “maintain the peace of Europe which was established at Nuremberg,” citing ethnic tensions between Czechs and Slovaks which expanded into low level violence over the summer of 1939 and threatened to escalate. In reality, while real hostility between the two groups did exist, the immediate clashes were to a large extent the result of covert operations by Diels and the Abwehr, which deliberately encouraged them to create a pretext for German intervention. The occupation of Czechoslovakia resulted in two gains from Wagner’s point of view. First, the considerable Czech armaments industry was added to the German one, and secondly, the foreign currency and gold reserves of Prague were added to those of Berlin. Slovakia was also forced to cede some disputed territory to Hungary, further cementing the latter’s attachment to the Third Reich(b).

A German vehicle column entering Prague.​

The occupation dispelled any remaining doubts on the part of the Western Allies that further diplomatic concessions be made to Germany. Instead, they resolved to further increase their own programs of rearmament, drawing on the assets of their colonial empires and the friendly attitude taken by the Roosevelt Administration in the United States. This development presented Wagner and Todt with an ominous dilemma. As originally projected by Blomberg and the OKV, rearmament was to have been completed, and the Volkswehr ready for offensive operations, in 1942. It was now clear, even with the trade outlet with the Soviet Union which had been negotiated by Neurath and Molotov, that the early advantage Germany had gained with its rearmament could not possibly last until then. And yet, Wagner and Blomberg were reluctant to attack in 1940.(c) For one thing, the Volkswehr was still very much in the middle of its training and expansion, particularly of the all important armored and motorized divisions, and time was desirable to fully integrate the Czech industries. For another, the pro-British and French position of America under the Democrat Franklin Roosevelt was uncomfortably reminiscent of the similar stance taken by another Democratic President, Woodrow Wilson, during World War One, which had been so critical in tipping the balance against the Kaiserreich. Wagner summed up the prevailing view among the top National Socialist leaders when he said that “Roosevelt is the chosen tool of Jewry, just as Wilson was. If given the chance, he will do to us in the coming war what Wilson did to us in the last one. We must not give him that chance.”

The Skoda Works of Czechoslovakia, which were to become an important part of the Reich's armaments production.​

The resulting gap between the German occupation of Czechoslovakia in September 1939 and the outbreak of war in the spring in 1941 became known to history as the “Cold Peace,” or sometimes as the “First Cold War” in reference to the second cease fire period which prevailed, for a time, in the west during and after the Axis-Soviet War. To maintain the head start on rearmament during the period, Fritz Todt, with Wagner’s approval, drove the German economy into one last fever pitch of mobilization.(d) By spending with abandon the foreign currency reserves which had been accumulated over the course of the 1930s, (supplemented by those which had been taken from Czechia) on imports of essential commodities from overseas prior to their being cut off by British blockade, he succeeded. This was, with the cooperation of the Polish government, combined with the enslavement of the able bodied adult portion of Poland’s large Jewish population for work in the German war economy, to free further manpower for the Volkswehr. Nevertheless, the effort was clearly not sustainable. By the end of 1941 at the latest, foreign currency reserves would start to run dry, and the ratio of forces would begin to tip inexorably in favor of Britain and France.

Thomas Dewey, successor to Franklin Roosevelt and 33rd President of the United States.​

Concurrently, in the United States, a presidential election of the highest importance was taking place. Franklin Roosevelt, following precedent, declined to run for a third term. The Democratic Party nominated Roosevelt’s agriculture secretary Henry Wallace, while the Republicans nominated New York District Attorney Thomas Dewey. Both domestic and foreign policy played prominent roles in the campaign. Wallace was a firm supporter of Roosevelt’s New Deal and its associated programs which had been put in place to alleviate the Great Depression. He was also relatively friendly to the Soviet Union, and very anti-German. Dewey, while a moderate, was able to successfully harness public fears of government overreach and excessive foreign entanglements, and also played up Wallace’s Soviet sympathies to win at the ballot box in November of 1940.(e) Early the next year, the new Congress passed the Naval Act of 1941, which became popularly referred to as the "One-and-a-Half-Ocean Navy Act." Authorizing a naval expansion of 35%, its stated goal was to enable the United States to control one of the oceans along its coast while at the same time effectively disputing an adversary's control over the other, hence the nickname. As was clear in context, the first meant Japan, and the strategic rationale behind the Act thus clearly assumed that in the event of war in Europe the British and French would be able to hold on land, preventing the war at sea from becoming paramount. To soothe the Republican Party’s non-interventionist wing, he also emphasized his desire to see the US take a neutral stance toward foreign conflicts. Nevertheless, as the subsequent course of events was to show, he looked favorably on Britain and France and took steps to aid them after the catastrophic turn of events the war took early on.


Notes:
(a) In contrast to the OTL decision taken by Hitler to turn the Czech part of Czechoslovakia into a direct protectorate.
(b) As OTL.
(c) In TTL, Wagner, lacking Hitler’s aggressiveness, is influenced to a greater degree by the more cautious approach to rearmament and war recommended by generals such as Blomberg.
(d) This general idea, that a country with a smaller economy and fewer resources than its adversaries can outproduce them for a short period of time, is not without OTL precedent, as the USSR’s ability to produce more weapons than Germany in 1941-42 shows.
(e) To me, having someone like Taft win would be one instance too many of good luck for the Axis.

Next, the Alsace Crisis and the Coming of War.

 

[Red_Galiray]

Interesting. I'm eager to see more. Hmm, why did FDR decline to run for a third term? I don't know that much about American history, so I'm not sure why he decided to run for a third term in OTL, but I thought it was mostly because he felt the American economy still needed repair rather than for Hitler's aggresion.

 

[Prince Daemon Targaryen]

Whooo! President Dewey! I'm glad an internationalist Republican won

 

[Not Henry G.]

Great update, looking forward to the war

 

[Cregan]

Cool update!

Can we get some info on who the puppet governments of Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia are?

 

[Gudestein]

Interesting. I'm eager to see more. Hmm, why did FDR decline to run for a third term? I don't know that much about American history, so I'm not sure why he decided to run for a third term in OTL, but I thought it was mostly because he felt the American economy still needed repair rather than for Hitler's aggresion.

This was my view as well that he wanted the next term for domestic reasons. So why not ITTL

Could we have a mini-update about what is going on strategically in the minds of the TTL leaders of Britain, France, Italy, Japan and US. Just to have their position clear.
An effective German/Soviet alliance must bring shivers down everyones spine. If conflict should erupt, there is some very fragile empires for the taking. I guess Mussolini would see this now, unless he is bribed somehow by the Wallies?

 

[CrimsonKing]

Interesting. I'm eager to see more. Hmm, why did FDR decline to run for a third term? I don't know that much about American history, so I'm not sure why he decided to run for a third term in OTL, but I thought it was mostly because he felt the American economy still needed repair rather than for Hitler's aggresion.

This was my view as well that he wanted the next term for domestic reasons. So why not ITTL

The impression I have gotten from discussion on this forum and elsewhere is that whatever he may personally have wanted, it was the exigency of the ongoing European war which allowed FDR to run again. Presidents not running for more than two terms was a strong tradition in American politics going back to the late 1700s.

Whooo! President Dewey! I'm glad an internationalist Republican won

Quite. In my opinion, it is both more realistic and makes the TL less skewed against the Allies to have an internationalist Republican as President, given the dangerous nature of the world situation, even if it has not yet gotten to the point of major war (outside of the Second Sino-Japanese War of course).

Great update, looking forward to the war

Thanks! It's very close now.

Cool update!

Can we get some info on who the puppet governments of Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia are?

Poland is under the control of Marshal Edward Rydz-Śmigły, who succeeded Pilsudski as commander of the Polish armed forces in 1935. Slovakia, as OTL, is governed by Fr. Jozef Tiso and his Slovak People's Party. I haven't decided for Czechia yet. All are, of course, under the supervision of German representatives.

Could we have a mini-update about what is going on strategically in the minds of the TTL leaders of Britain, France, Italy, Japan and US. Just to have their position clear.
An effective German/Soviet alliance must bring shivers down everyones spine. If conflict should erupt, there is some very fragile empires for the taking. I guess Mussolini would see this now, unless he is bribed somehow by the Wallies?

Britain and France are feeling somewhat shaken by the M-N Accords but are also cautiously optimistic. It should be remembered what prestige the French Army had before 1940, and their rearmament programs are hitting their stride. Also, they don't quite appreciate the extent to which the Reich has gone all out for war production with no thought except for maximizing weapons output in the present and immediate future. The prospect of a German-Soviet alliance is more worrying, but they are reasonably sure that if they are able to successfully defend against Germany the USSR won't come in. It is also good to keep in mind the disdain in which the Red Army was held at this time, as evidenced by the proposals to intervene on Finland's side during the Winter War (which isn't happening ITTL, I don't think Stalin's caution would let him go to war with Finland without Germany already being at war with the Anglo-French) and bomb the Baku oilfields.

Italy and Japan are both frustrated and hopeful. Italy has its desires for expansion in the Mediterranean and Africa which are being opposed by Britain and France. Japan is in a similar situation, being very frustrated by the stalemate in the war with China and deeply resentful of Wallied support for the KMT. At the same time, both view the possibility of direct conflict with the might of the British and French empires with deep foreboding. In short, they need the Volkswehr to prove itself before they will consider moving against the Wallies. Interesting that you should mention Mussolini, (vague spoiler here) certain of his preparations are going to be better than IOTL...

The US under Dewey is worried about the turn global developments have taken, with German and Japanese expansionism in Europe and Asia on the rise, and are taking preliminary steps toward rearmament largely as per OTL. The Americans are also, however, relatively confident in the ability of their partners to hold the Germans and Japanese off.

 

[Gudestein]

Quite. In my opinion, it is both more realistic and makes the TL less skewed against the Allies to have an internationalist Republican as President, given the dangerous nature of the world situation, even if it has not yet gotten to the point of major war (outside of the Second Sino-Japanese).

Britain and France are feeling somewhat shaken by the M-N Accords but are also

Italy and Japan are both frustrated and hopeful. Italy has its desires for expansion in the Mediterranean and Africa which are being opposed by Britain and France. Japan is in a similar situation, being very frustrated by the stalemate in the war with China and deeply resentful of Wallied support for the KMT. At the same time, both view the possibility of direct conflict with the might of the British and French empires with deep foreboding. In short, they need the Volkswehr to prove itself before they will consider moving against the Wallies. Interesting that you should mention Mussolini, (vague spoiler here) certain of his preparations are going to be better than IOTL...

The US under Dewey is worried about the turn global developments have taken, with German and Japanese expansionism in Europe and Asia on the rise, and are taking preliminary steps toward rearmament largely as per OTL. The Americans are also, however, relatively confident in the ability of their partners to hold the Germans and Japanese off.

Like it the Way the axis may first Roll a six, but then gets the worst remaining candidate in Dewey.
US rearmament as Per OTL is tricky come 1940. Two navy fleet or no to navy fleet?
Mussolini? Can Wagner guarantee Oil supply via SU?

 

[CrimsonKing]

Like it the Way the axis may first Roll a six, but then gets the worst remaining candidate in Dewey.

Indeed, the general approach I am trying to take with this TL is having Germany/Axis do better, rather than the Allies doing worse. As a result, I try not to have changes which cannot be said to logically follow from the premise of a more methodical German leadership.

US rearmament as Per OTL is tricky come 1940. Two navy fleet or no to navy fleet?

I'm considering a few options. The thing is, seeing the level of criticism your TL has received for ostensibly having the Wallies act in an implausibly passive way, I am reluctant to reduce rearmament on the part of one or more of them.

Mussolini? Can Wagner guarantee Oil supply via SU?

He can, to a certain extent, both because German fuel stocks are somewhat larger than in OTL and because the M-N negotiations took place in a better negotiating position. But there will still be shortages.

 

[Not Henry G.]

Indeed, the general approach I am trying to take with this TL is having Germany/Axis do better, rather than the Allies doing worse. As a result, I try not to have changes which cannot be said to logically follow from the premise of a more methodical German leadership.

I like that approach. Having the Allies mess up so the Axis can win is a bit lazy. Having the Axis be smarter than OTL-level Allies is much more fun.

 

[Gudestein]

I like that approach. Having the Allies mess up so the Axis can win is a bit lazy. Having the Axis be smarter than OTL-level Allies is much more fun.

It is a tricky balance to make. I made a few wrong steps, that's acknowledged, but the tricky point is to have the wallies smell the rat at the same time as OTL or not and to see the size of it as OTL or not. You may sometimes have to choose between making the wallies smarter than OTL or having them not reacting to a step beyond OTL.
As ITTL, would they or would not react to an earlier Anschluss with their own apprehension, would the changes here lead to Roosevelt running a third term or not? Dewey is a compensation for one of the pro-axis turns.
Over Austria its more tricky, although after SCW Wagner's Germany is indeed appearing more peaceful than OTL Germany.