:
Well, it won't happen like that exactly, but you'll see.
Now that you bring it up, I see the point about a different course of events during the crisis being an interesting POD by itself. However, in the context of your TL, Hitler is planning on a war in 1939, right? Which would lead me to think he wouldn't be too upset over the war breaking out as OTL. Or is the issue preserving surprise."
... the "new" OP ...
Luckily only 'table talks', if published ... no ... Non-Agression pact with either Poland or SU I would assume
... but NICE
Well I'm curious regarding your solution. In my TL Hitler needs the surprise, but he also needs the angle-French drawing the line publicly somewhere. That is his excuse for starting the war. Your Munch solution makes sense, but sharons the rest of Czekkoslovakia does not make sense in my TL.
I may use it if you dont mind?
Thank you, its been used. I thought you wouldn't ad duly cited.I don't mind at all. Here is the next update.
IOTL, when the pressure was on Poland seemed quite hard headed. IOTL they even never formally surrendered. I wonder what the opinion is of this happening, even with a hopeless strategic situationbut was also forced into agreeing to close economic and military cooperation with Germany on what amounted to vassal terms.
With the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact in place I think war with both SU and Germany was a risk IOTL as well. Still the guarantee went ahead.Note: The difference compared to OTL which causes the British and French to decide against supporting Poland is, that in OTL while Poland looked bad for taking advantage of the Munich Agreement, it only did so after it had been concluded. By contrast, ITTL, with its participation in the negotiations (alongside Hungary) at the critical part of the negotiations, it is seen as one of the causes of the decision to abandon Czechoslovakia in the first place. In addition, in OTL the talks which led to the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact took place after the German seizure of the rump Czechoslovakia, which led to the British and French becoming interested in cooperating with the USSR against Germany and a resultant strengthening of Stalin’s bargaining position. Here, Wagner concludes the alternate version of the pact before the annexation while opinion in France and Britain still looks on the Sudeten agreement favorably and was able to secure a more active Soviet role in pressuring Poland.
I wonder if German pre-Versailles borders and a bit of the east to SU and then an independent Poland with corridor access rights would be better. Wagner could in principle force this through with a plesbicite as Hitler suggested OTL. If the choice is between letting the people decide for themselves and war its easier for the western powers to fold.
Its still a severely weakened Poland surrounded by enemies even if they are formally and factually independent. The remnants can be crushed at any time when Wagner and Stalin decides. Or even forced into giving up more independence later simply by economic blockade.
What makes such a big difference, that the wallies didn't steped back in OTL ?
Interesting.
Is Poland now effectively reduced to the territory of the Central Powers' client state of the Kingdom of Poland? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_Poland_(1916–18))
It'll definitely benefit Germany to keep rump Poland as a collaborationist puppet state like Slovakia instead of a giant reservation like the General-Government of OTL. Less of a manpower drain to garrison, less German troops stuck there on permanent occupation duty, less Polish resistance, a lot more Polish collaborationist support, another allied Fascist country in the Axis, and far less wasted resources from not trying to genocide the Poles into a serf race trapped in a giant reservation like OTL. Good move.
IOTL, when the pressure was on Poland seemed quite hard headed. IOTL they even never formally surrendered. I wonder what the opinion is of this happening, even with a hopeless strategic situation
With the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact in place I think war with both SU and Germany was a risk IOTL as well. Still the guarantee went ahead.
I wonder if German pre-Versailles borders and a bit of the east to SU and then an independent Poland with corridor access rights would be better. Wagner could in principle force this through with a plesbicite as Hitler suggested OTL. If the choice is between letting the people decide for themselves and war its easier for the western powers to fold.
Its still a severely weakened Poland surrounded by enemies even if they are formally and factually independent. The remnants can be crushed at any time when Wagner and Stalin decides. Or even forced into giving up more independence later simply by economic blockade.
Its a very well written piece. Look forward to the next part.
Hmmm, ok : Wagner is 'quicker' in getting the pact with Stalin, too quick for the allies to consider talking to Stalin by themself.
However, after Hitler 'broke' the Munich agreement, appeasement ended with trying to boost Polands position as the 'logical' next victim with quite strong diplomatic tools - though only diplomatics wihtout much more tangible.
Even though not with much of military means but at least they stood in for Poland and declared war against Hitler - after the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.
Not completly - time factor - but ... very much the same they face now in ITTL.
What makes such a big difference, that the wallies didn't steped back in OTL ?
Well, the major difference is that SU is part of the deterrent. Standing up for Poland Will be extremely costly ITTL.
The other side of the coin is that Wagner now loses any credibility. The wallies have to consider further aggression, and the question is more when than whether or not to drawing the line.
I actually Can see the hopelessnes in declaring war against SU and Germany at the same time. How is that war to be won. On the other hand, there were plans to help Finland IOTL so maybe the wallies were set for
a reckless decision. It could go either way.
My suggestions above is basically ways Wagner can change the odds
Further in his favor.
Rough day for Poland...
The PG 07 TOC had been lock'd out due to the two week span, I believe
new TOC.
TOC
CrimsonKing..AH..Prologue - The Rise of Hitler and NSVP
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_01 ---- Night of the Hangman
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_02 ---- Hjalmar Schacht and the First Four-Year Plan
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_03 ---- The Rising Storm
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_04 ---- Turning Point
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_05 ---- The Volkswehr: Leadership and Doctrine
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_06 ---- Appendix: The Abwehr and German Intelligence
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_07 ---- Weapons of the Volkswehr: Heer and Luftwaffe
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_08 ---- Vessels of the Kriegsmarine and Special Weapons
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_09 ---- The Axis Alliance and the Nuremberg Agreement
CrimsonKing..AH..CH_10 ---- The Molotov-Neurath Accords and the Danzig Crisis
xxXXxx
I like it that you include the motives also for talking bad decisions. I've had some problems in my TL by sticking to Raeder's beliefs for the KM or Hitler moving on Austria if not stopped by Mussolini, but it add's plausibility contrary to what some critics would say.Thanks! You are correct that using plebiscites would be the best way to reduce the risk of war, the thing is, though, that having secured the more active cooperation of the Soviet Union, Wagner wouldn't be particularly unhappy if it came to war given that he'd have the USSR on his side, although he didn't plan on it breaking out this early and it would be a surprise.
.
Strategically viewed, if the Wallies perceive the SU/German alliance as strong, there is only Italy, Japan and the US. There is some wooing to be described here.That said, it is certainly not inconceivable, given that there were serious proposals in OTL to go after the Baku oilfields and come to Finland's help during the Winter War, that the Anglo-French might be willing to get into a war with Berlin and Moscow. But is that really an interesting prospect from the point of view of the TL? I mean, the combination of the improved German military and economic situation compared to OTL 1939, with the USSR as an active co-belligerent, is such that Britain and France would simply get demolished in short order, and I tend to think that situations which involve more evenly matched adversaries are more engaging.
Thus, they have to get Italy and/or Japan on board to change the strategic outlook. The US goes without saying. That is a tall order which is also the possible motive for starting the war when Poland was still taking part.The above is completely accurate. With these developments, the Wallies have lost all their illusions about the possibility of coexistence with Wagner's Germany, and the next crisis means war.
I like it that you include the motives also for talking bad decisions. I've had some problems in my TL by sticking to Raeder's beliefs for the KM or Hitler moving on Austria if not stopped by Mussolini, but it add's plausibility contrary to what some critics would say.
In your case it drives a reckless decision that is not punished, which adds to the list of lucky breaks Wagner gets.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with this and long as these lucky events are recorded.
Strategically viewed, if the Wallies perceive the SU/German alliance as strong, there is only Italy, Japan and the US. There is some wooing to be described here.
Thus, they have to get Italy and/or Japan on board to change the strategic outlook. The US goes without saying. That is a tall order which is also the possible motive for starting the war when Poland was still taking part.
Overall, a fantastic piece of work.
As far as Japan and Italy go, how exactly would the British and French get their cooperation by this point? Given the extensive discussion of them in your TL, you may have more knowledge on this subject than me, but my understanding is that, for Italy, Anglo-French opposition to the Ethiopian invasion combined the Mussolini's aspirations to dominate the Meditarannean had soured Wallied-Italian relations and a similar statement could be made about Anglo-Japanese relations given British opposition to Japan during the Second Sino-Japanese War and colonial rivalries in Asia. For the record, I'm planning on having Italy and Japan both be pro-German neutrals as in OTL at the outbreak of the war.
Thanks again!
I'm hoping a Republican wins the 1940 election, but an internationalist one such as Dewey.
Well, I certainly dont know how to make this work from the Wallies point of you. It is simply that their strategic options dictate that they need fruens. They Can try to:
1:get the US on board for Real.
2: break of Italy (ITTL give him all he wants)
3: persuade Jspan to go north.
4: heavily support KMT, but this fails if the confrontation with Jspan gets hot
Or, try all of the above, but fail to seal the deal in time. Then Japan and Italy Will side with the Winners. The latter us much like OTL. Major difference is that the wallies position is obviously bad. The US might worry where this is going and take a more active course.
Ah, so the little change has lead to a massive butterfly. Instead of the General Government we have a puppet Poland with the general borders of Congress Poland during the days of Imperial Russia. Should allow for a much easier time for the Wehrmacht when they do challenge the Western powers.
Is Smigly-Ritz going to be another German puppet like Horthy or the Romanians?
I'm hoping a Republican wins the 1940 election, but an internationalist one such as Dewey.
Well, I would bet -- this being Nazi wank as our esteemed host has proposed -- somebody like Taft is more likely.
But, you never know.
Re: The British and French non-guarantee to Poland. The thought has occurred to me that I could just have the Germans go for both the M-N Accords and press the Danzig issue before annexing the rump Czechoslovakia. That would further reduce the likelihood of Wallied support for Poland.
Timing is everything.
Sometimes.
Sudeten-crisis and corridor-crisis at the same time ... with the stance of appeasement prevailing and fear of war on the westerners side ... IMO well within possibility.All right then, I'm seriously considering it now. Does anyone else support the idea?
All right then, I'm seriously considering it now. Does anyone else support the idea?
All right then, I'm seriously considering it now. Does anyone else support the idea?