I like that approach. Having the Allies mess up so the Axis can win is a bit lazy. Having the Axis be smarter than OTL-level Allies is much more fun.

Glad you're enjoying it. I too think it's more fun, as well as more realistic.

It is a tricky balance to make. I made a few wrong steps, that's acknowledged, but the tricky point is to have the wallies smell the rat at the same time as OTL or not and to see the size of it as OTL or not. You may sometimes have to choose between making the wallies smarter than OTL or having them not reacting to a step beyond OTL.
As ITTL, would they or would not react to an earlier Anschluss with their own apprehension, would the changes here lead to Roosevelt running a third term or not? Dewey is a compensation for one of the pro-axis turns.
Over Austria its more tricky, although after SCW Wagner's Germany is indeed appearing more peaceful than OTL Germany.

All good points, especially about what extent to have the Wallies react or not react. In response, all I can say is that I have tried as best I can to provide a compensating event for the things which have gone the Axis's way. The earlier Anschluss with a passive posture during the SCW, etc.
 
The last update has been edited to show US naval rearmament so far as being roughly at half the level of OTL. Is this reasonable considering the situation? Too little? Too much?
 
The last update has been edited to show US naval rearmament so far as being roughly at half the level of OTL. Is this reasonable considering the situation? Too little? Too much?

I cant really say. I dont know how much the pacific
Threat assesment contributed IOTL. Seems sensible with the new administration. How about the British?
 
I cant really say. I dont know how much the pacific
Threat assesment contributed IOTL. Seems sensible with the new administration.

The reasoning I'm using is that although Germany is the more powerful country, Japan has actually been waging a large and internationally prominent war for some years by this point, particularly given that Europe has settled down to the (deceptively calm) "Cold Peace."

How about the British?

I've thought about this matter a lot, and my conclusion is as OTL. From what I've gathered on their attitude towards the U-boats, they thought they had the problem under adequate control until the Battle of the Atlantic actually got underway and the improvements to the German submarine force compared to OTL aren't conspicuous enough to change that assessment. Therefore, the British and French armed forces in TTL 1941 will be as they would have been at the beginning of OTL 1941 had the war been delayed until then.
 
The reasoning I'm using is that although Germany is the more powerful country, Japan has actually been waging a large and internationally prominent war for some years by this point, particularly given that Europe has settled down to the (deceptively calm) "Cold Peace."



I've thought about this matter a lot, and my conclusion is as OTL. From what I've gathered on their attitude towards the U-boats, they thought they had the problem under adequate control until the Battle of the Atlantic actually got underway and the improvements to the German submarine force compared to OTL aren't conspicuous enough to change that assessment. Therefore, the British and French armed forces in TTL 1941 will be as they would have been at the beginning of OTL 1941 had the war been delayed until then.

Maybe you are giving them a bit to much at least in one aspect. Both the British and French obviously have made rearmament programs that will go ahead, but the French discovered to their dismay that they were unable to have their orders fulfilled by the domestic aviation industry. Sensing the urgency IOTL they ordered planes from the US which kick-started the US aviation rearmament and these weapons went into British and US armaments after the fall of France. With less urgency, this probably wouldn't happen and the French would keep focusing on their own industry.
 
Maybe you are giving them a bit to much at least in one aspect. Both the British and French obviously have made rearmament programs that will go ahead, but the French discovered to their dismay that they were unable to have their orders fulfilled by the domestic aviation industry. Sensing the urgency IOTL they ordered planes from the US which kick-started the US aviation rearmament and these weapons went into British and US armaments after the fall of France. With less urgency, this probably wouldn't happen and the French would keep focusing on their own industry.

I see. So you're thinking the lesser degree of urgency would be the result of not having the Phony War over the winter of 1939-40 to forewarn the French to expect/prepare for an attack in the spring?
 
I see. So you're thinking the lesser degree of urgency would be the result of not having the Phony War over the winter of 1939-40 to forewarn the French to expect/prepare for an attack in the spring?

That would seem natural. The only reason for appeasement at this stage is to delay confrontation, and if war is not imminent, sending currency abroad to make US jobs is a last resort and a long-term liability with a limited French perspective. Very vulnerable politically.
 
That would seem natural. The only reason for appeasement at this stage is to delay confrontation, and if war is not imminent, sending currency abroad to make US jobs is a last resort and a long-term liability with a limited French perspective. Very vulnerable politically.

This sounds logical and goes with what I understand of French rearmament. Unless large problems with plausibility are raised, the suggestion will be incorporated and mentioned when the narrative reaches the Battle of France proper.

Here is the next update. I know I said earlier it would be the first chapter of Drive to the West, but on second thought I decided to have it be the last section of the current part. Comments???

Chapter 6
The Alsace Crisis and the Coming of War
In the winter and early spring of 1941, as the snows which carpeted the ground like a blanket thawed and began their annual melting, an uneasy calm settled over Europe. It was, wrote an American journalist, “like the moment in a card game just before the start of the action, after all the hands have been dealt and the initial bets made, the players know their course of action and the spectators have gathered and assumed their places.” In Paris and London, the French and British high commands gathered their forces, confident in the knowledge that time was on their side. In Berlin, Heinrich Wagner and Werner von Blomberg, determined not to give their enemies that time, finalized their plans to make their decisive move while the window of opportunity Fritz Todt’s efforts had provided the Volkswehr was still open. In Moscow, Stalin was cautiously satisfied that he had staved off the threatened capitalist encirclement of the Soviet Union. In Rome, Mussolini watched and waited. He was, so he informed his German counterpart, “prepared to enter hostilities with the decadent west” if war came between it and Germany and the latter achieved such success as was necessary “to enable the Italian nation to claim its rightful place in the Mediterranean and Africa.” Encouraged by German advisers, he quietly set about the enhancement of the port system along the coast of the Italian colony of Libya and the construction of a rail line to supply his troops should the British Empire in Egypt and the Middle East prove vulnerable.(a)

3136034._SX540_.jpg

Debris and smoke in the aftermath of one of the Abwehr's demonstrations in Alsace.


In the middle of March Blomberg sent Wagner the memorandum he had been waiting for, concluding “It can be said with confidence that the readiness of our Volkswehr, relative to that of our adversaries, is at present at the highest which it will ever attain for the foreseeable future. We gain no advantage by attempting to delay the inevitable further.” Upon receiving it Wagner authorized the Abwehr to begin Operation White, (Fall Weiss) which was designed to provide a casus belli for the initiation of hostilities in the west. It was found in the two territories which had been disputed so famously in the past between France and Germany, called Alsace and Lorraine in France and Elsaß and Lothringen in Germany.(b) Diels began a large publicity campaign centered on the alleged pro-German sympathies of their populations, which was combined with the organization of “spontaneous” demonstrations against the French administration in major cities of Elsaß and Lothringen which were in fact carefully orchestrated and stage-managed to attract publicity and provoke a violent reaction from the authorities. Such incidents provided a pretext late in the month to demand that the French government pay compensation to the ethnic Germans expelled from the area after World War One and that it agree to the holding of plebiscites in the two provinces to be overseen jointly by French and German officials, demands calculated, like the infamous Austro-Hungarian ultimatum to Serbia during the July Crisis of 1914, to be unacceptable, and indeed they were duly rejected by Paris on the 26th.


CG-u_HUWoAAmVUl.png

A train station targeted during Operation Reinhard.


On the 31st the
Abwehr initiated one last action to justify war with Operation Reinhard. Named for SD chief Reinhard Heydrich, it was an elaborate false flag operation involving simultaneous attacks by special forces dressed in French uniforms against German installations and border posts along the Franco-German border.(c) A finishing touch was provided with the leaving behind of bodies of concentration camp inmates who had been killed by lethal injection, then dressed in French uniforms and shot. These developments, with due hyperbole and exaggeration, were reported in a special “Emergency Announcement” by Goebbels via radio on the morning of April 1st. Thus preceded, Wagner himself took the microphone at high noon. Speaking in a tone which listeners described as “utterly solemn, a projection in words of the stony formality of a medieval cathedral,” he stated that “The lack of any willingness on the part of the French Government to cease its brutal repressions against the people of Alsace and Lorraine, or show respect for their right to self-determination, coupled with its completely unprovoked attacks on our brave troops, leave us with no choice but war... else we will continue to be treated as we were at Versailles. What our enemies have started, we shall finish. The cause of National Socialism is just, and we will prevail.” After he concluded, there was a pause. Although it lasted only a second in time it seemed to go on forever. Then, at last, came the strains of the Horst Wessel Song. Although they had been heard so often, the momentousness of the occasion lent a special significance to the words, “The flag on high, the ranks tightly closed... for the last time, the call to arms is sounded...”

Notes:
(a) This occurs as a result of the Italians having more time to prepare and somewhat better inter-Axis cooperation in TTL.
(b) A reference to the fact that in OTL Wagner was the gauleiter of Alsace.
(c) The Operation Himmler of OTL, obviously not called that here, conducted against France instead of Poland.

Next: Blood on the Ice.
 
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Drumroll please! The war begins.
In OTL the Germans were nothing short of lucky that the French and British didn't just attack while they conquered Poland. Now they don't have that problem, and can avoid the mass bomber raids occurring all through the Sitzkrieg and having to send all their U-boats north of Scotland to get to the Atlantic
 
Should have given the last line of your last update more attention. ...

Interesting idea to pull that old rabbit out of the hat : Alsace-Lorraine, but ...
I don't know, if in the late 30ies there still were enough germans or people of german origin to be harassed by the french as apretext the above described secret ops to be conducted.

After WW I a damn awfull lot of these people were expelled from there ... by the french already.
Do you have access to any numbers of that in the 30ies ?

All the other stuff : GREAT and nicely thought of. *thumbsup*
 
I'm guessing Rommel will have an easier time in North Africa this time around, eh?

Not a bad guess. Although don't assume personnel arrangements will be the same as in OTL, he definitely will be making an appearance however.

And so it begins.

It's time for war.

The moment has finally came...

Drumroll please! The war begins.

I'll try to have the next few updates out soon!

In OTL the Germans were nothing short of lucky that the French and British didn't just attack while they conquered Poland. Now they don't have that problem, and can avoid the mass bomber raids occurring all through the Sitzkrieg and having to send all their U-boats north of Scotland to get to the Atlantic

A good point, and the lack of willingness to take those kinds of risks is one of the things that does distinguish Wagner from Hitler.

Should have given the last line of your last update more attention. ...

Interesting idea to pull that old rabbit out of the hat : Alsace-Lorraine, but ...
I don't know, if in the late 30ies there still were enough germans or people of german origin to be harassed by the french as apretext the above described secret ops to be conducted.

After WW I a damn awfull lot of these people were expelled from there ... by the french already.
Do you have access to any numbers of that in the 30ies ?

All the other stuff : GREAT and nicely thought of. *thumbsup*

I understand what you're saying here. The thing is, I couldn't think of what else could provide any sort of casus belli. Something is preferable to nothing, and bringing up Alsace-Lorraine reminds American observers of the Versailles treaty, which was viewed negatively in the United States. As far as numbers go, I seem to recall that around 100,000 were expelled after WW1. Perhaps an additional demand centered around them could be added, such as the French government paying compensation or their being allowed to return?
 
I understand what you're saying here. The thing is, I couldn't think of what else could provide any sort of casus belli. Something is preferable to nothing, and bringing up Alsace-Lorraine reminds American observers of the Versailles treaty, which was viewed negatively in the United States. As far as numbers go, I seem to recall that around 100,000 were expelled after WW1. Perhaps an additional demand centered around them could be added, such as the French government paying compensation or their being allowed to return?
I think compared to the radio station attack this suffices.

Its a nice introduction and the timed aggression is an advantage. Surprise is lost however and the thing about submarines is probably not true. The raiders and subs will all be out and refueled at sea. The Atlantic war will start out very bloody indeed.

I realize this will be quite an effort, but its not 1939 anymore. Will you be updating on the readiness status in France and in Africa?
I guess a key difference is that there is no BEF ITTL.
 
Interesting idea to pull that old rabbit out of the hat : Alsace-Lorraine, but ...
I don't know, if in the late 30ies there still were enough germans or people of german origin to be harassed by the french as apretext the above described secret ops to be conducted.
The problem would be finding enough agents willing to do this, but sure there are from the Nazi German viewpoint... the Alsatians themselves.
 
Nice update. Two things:

1, I think you should consider referring to Alsace as Elsaß and Lorraine as Lothringen as within Germany that is what the two territories would be referred to as.

2, As for Germans within Elsaß, despite the expulsion of 100,000 Germans, there were still plenty left if my memory serves. People of mixed marriages stayed, as well as any native Alsatians, and the pro-German movement in the area only well and truly died during its occupation in WW2. Therefore, I don't think there would be an issue with conjuring up this Casus Belli, other than the normal issues around any Casus Belli. I also think the way that it was handled in the update with the proposed plebiscite handled the situation nicely.
 
I think compared to the radio station attack this suffices.

Its a nice introduction and the timed aggression is an advantage. Surprise is lost however and the thing about submarines is probably not true. The raiders and subs will all be out and refueled at sea. The Atlantic war will start out very bloody indeed.

I realize this will be quite an effort, but its not 1939 anymore. Will you be updating on the readiness status in France and in Africa?
I guess a key difference is that there is no BEF ITTL.

I have added the demand of compensation to the expelled population to the update. Regarding readiness in France and Africa, it will definitely be discussed when the narrative reaches the fighting in those areas. There will be a BEF-my reasoning is that the extra period afforded the Anglo-French as well as the Germans would allow the British more time to get ready to send it to the continent quickly.

Been looking forward to this. Keep the awesomeness coming!

Thanks! Glad you're enjoying it.

The problem would be finding enough agents willing to do this, but sure there are from the Nazi German viewpoint... the Alsatians themselves.

Nice update. Two things:

1, I think you should consider referring to Alsace as Elsaß and Lorraine as Lothringen as within Germany that is what the two territories would be referred to as.

2, As for Germans within Elsaß, despite the expulsion of 100,000 Germans, there were still plenty left if my memory serves. People of mixed marriages stayed, as well as any native Alsatians, and the pro-German movement in the area only well and truly died during its occupation in WW2. Therefore, I don't think there would be an issue with conjuring up this Casus Belli, other than the normal issues around any Casus Belli. I also think the way that it was handled in the update with the proposed plebiscite handled the situation nicely.

The update has been edited to mention the name issue. My understanding of the feelings of the population is that French rule after WW1 was somewhat heavy-handed, leading to continuing pro-German sentiment which the Abwehr is utilizing here.
 
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