Unfortunately, it's not the Hurrican of the Battle of Britain. These are Hurrican Mk IIB's. Their performance is downgraded by the extra weight from extra guns & topicalization of their engines. In Malaya their heavily outnumbered and outclassed by both the A6M2 Zero & Ki-43 Oscar. They can match the Ki-27 Nate, but more Oscar's are showing up. The air war was so lopsided I just can't see were all this optimism is coming from. It not like 200 Spitfire Mk Vs are going to show up in January 1942.
Malaya What If
- Thread starter Fatboy Coxy
- Start date
And I can not see why you think everything has to go as OTL. In most fighter/fighter battles if a side gets the jump, it wins ( many kills are bounces). A working Dowding system and the British will get the jump a lot more than OTL. Its why Bf 109's in the Battle of France were more effective than over Britain just a few months later. Add in an air commander who is both flexible , who will train his men better, who was OTL capable of holding his own with inferior kit and the fight gets a lot harder. Please remember this is not OTL and the changes ITTL started in 1940.
In mid-January 1942 51 Hurrican Mk IIBs were shipped in creates to Singapore, with 24 well-trained pilots. The surviving Buffalo pilots converted to the much better Hurricane's. At the end of the month another 48 flew in from HMS Indomitable to the DEI's because they were no more British held airfields. 51 Hurricane's didn't change anything, the Japanese still had air superiority. Even stripped down these Hurricane's could barely hold their own against the Ki-43 Oscar. By late January all the surviving fighters had to retreat to the DEI's.
Having radar coverage of Singapore Island isn't going to do much because the Japanese have such a superior force that more Hurricane's will die in the air. Shooting down a few more Japanese bombers won't make any significant difference in the outcome to the campaign. Singapore isn't Malta which was defensible. It couldn't be easily invaded and could be reinforced by air on a fairly regular basis. The Italians were not up to the same standard as the Japanese, and the Luftwaffe was only present in force sporadically. In the end all you'll have are a handful of fighters in a hopeless battle. As happened in the OTL surviving crews would be pulled out of SEA and sent to Australia & Ceylon.
Again, you seem to be under the impression this is OTL, it is not. You are not considering all the changes ( and you are very much underestimating Malta ). Your mantra seems to be that certain things will always happen, that's not how ATL's work. Its not single changes that make a difference, its the whole. A better trained and led army means the Japanese bases will be further North. This means the Japanese air is more stretched. A fully working Dowding system is a big force multiplier allowing the RAF to mass its fighters unlike OTL ( one of Parks major improvements in Malta was getting Big Wings working ). A war of attrition is one that favours the British, their superior logistics mean they can reinforce/reequip more effectively. As long as Singapore is in action then transport losses for the Japanese will keep mounting, and transports are definitely not something they can afford to lose, further impairing their logistics which start out as dubious.
I'm not sure I agree.....
If the British did get access to a crashed Hayabusa, simply by counting machine guns, it's not unreasonable that experienced RAF tacticians on Park's staff would call for head on attacks to maximize their advantages against the IJA weaknesses. From there the evolution to "Boom & Zoom" by experienced pilots is not a big jump at all.
Bottom Line is that butterfly is a very big deal because of Park and his staff.....
As far as I understand what's happened so far, the northern airfields are still going to fall. The Dowding System is only around Singapore Island. The RAF is still heavily outnumbered and saddled with inferior fighters. The system can only be effective if your fighters can climb to a higher altitude than the attacking aircraft. When the Japanese bombed Clark & Ida Airfields in the Philippines on December 7/8 they smashed both from 20,000 feet. Those Buffalo's aren't getting to that altitude in less than 30 minutes, and those Hurricane Mk IIB's unless their stripped are going be much slower to reach them than they should, and once there their performance isn't that great. How many AA guns does Singapore have to hit aircraft that high? The radar will help but won't change the outcome. And lastly logistics will be terrible for the same reasons as in the OTL.
Fatboy Coxy
Monthly Donor
Hi Belisarius II, Hurricane, not Buffalo. You're making judgement on what happened historically, but with numerous small changes, so perhaps what happened initially may not this time.
If it was so obvious, why did it take so long to evolve better tactics? That was after having their brains beaten out of them over & over again. Do you think they'd change their tactics on a theory? In the Battle of Britain most of Fighter Command was still using flights of 3, which the Germans called the row of idiots. It's not like today where Western Air Forces engage in dissimilar combat exercises, and train against enemy aircraft. It's much more scientific today, but not then. In WWII everyone had a steep learning curve.
Fatboy Coxy
Monthly Donor
Hi Belisarius II, the border with Thailand was quite open, and as you say could be crossed easily, by both sides. Re intelligence leaks being so pervasive, I've written about the few big ones that attracted media attention, but there was little else. The real shock of Captain Heenan spying for the Japanese was less of what he provided, but more that a serving British Officer would do such a thing. Special Branch was quite successful in managing unrest in the colony, indeed they had the Malayan Communist Party chairman, Lai Teck in their pocket. As I said before, I'm completely at odds with your stance that
or that
and would welcome some sources substantiating this.
Fatboy Coxy
Monthly Donor
Hi Belisarius II, there was a substantial nationalist movement in Malaya, which I think I've covered, however, it is wrong to say Malayans didn't fight for the British. The current Malayan Army happily traces its heritage back to the British raised Malay Regiment, and notes with pride on the heroism of Lt Adnan bin Saidi, who fought at the battle of Pansir Panjang, Singapore. The Chinese came forward in number when asked to fight the Japanese as well, indeed the reason why more Malay or Chinese didnt fight was purely down to the British not trying to raise units before the war started.
Fatboy Coxy
Monthly Donor
Hi El Pip, thank you for the link, I'll go and have a read. There will be some differences however, as the Japanese Army Air Force didn't use radio anywhere near as much as the Luftwaffe.
How many Hurricane's are the British sending to Malaya? Where are they coming from, and who's not getting them, as well as the radar sets? If you want to match the Japanese in Malaya, you'll need 200 to start, and once the war begins about 50 or more a month. Once there they'll find they have to strip the Hurricane IIB's to give them a chance, and then your attrition rate goes up because of engine problems. Where does the additional logistical support for the fighters, and radar come from? Is the radar tropicalized? Do they know they have a climate problem until they get them in place and try to use them? Look what happened to the Prince of Wales radar.
I really don't know if there would be a problem with the humidity. I don't know what kind of radar the British had in Malaya but the kind of system you're talking about is complex, and logistical demanding. Again, where are the British diverting these resources from?
MWI 41100221 Training The Agents
Fatboy Coxy
Monthly Donor
1941, Thursday 02 October;
Lt Col Jim Gavin stood in front of them, 27 men from Hong Kong, who had only been allowed to leave the ship in Singapore, after dark, to be escorted down the gangplank carrying their rucksacks, straight into four waiting light trucks. A nearly two-hour drive followed, a crawl at some times, down roads that became increasingly narrower and quieter, until a remote estate beside the Jurong River. On entering a small square, they had been helped out of the trucks and led into a large house, where Gavin was waiting in the lounge.
“Ah gentlemen, in a little while we will serve dinner, and then we’ll show you to your rooms, but before that I’d just like to say, welcome to our little home, Training School 101, we are kind of cramped in here, but I hope you find your stay rewarding”. Gavin looked around the room and saw four Europeans, seven Eurasians and sixteen Chinese. “I just like to introduce you to your Chief Instructor, Captain Chapman”
“Thank you, Jim, now gentlemen, your reports state you are all healthy, and have a good level of fitness, which is just as well, because the next twenty-one days are going to be very intense. You will all undergo a seven-day basic training course, before we split you up into your specialist roles. Some of you will become expert saboteurs, others observers and intelligence gatherers, spy’s and assassins, working alone, or in left behind parties, and all of you, experts in field craft.
Gavin looked on, only partly listening, while his mind thought on. They had opened in July, and were deemed an immediate success, but the camp facilities were too limited, and the number they could train were pitiful. Col Warren had come to see them in late August, and had asked what was needed to give a fivefold increase in trained operatives, and Gavin, along with Spenser had said what they thought. Surprisingly, two days later Warren was back, saying everything was agreed, even the construction of a short rail line, something Spenser had asked for, never thinking they’d get it. And as soon as the current course was complete, about a week later, the camp was closed.
They had been shut for nearly four weeks, while a couple of platoons of Australian sappers had been sent in to construct classrooms, quarters, and associated buildings for a staff of twenty, plus up to forty students. But what was most interesting was they also had constructed some pill boxes, two bridges over the same stream, about 100 yards apart, one, part of the small stretch of railway line, and a collection of huts, resembling a small village. Sworn to secrecy the Australians had done a fine job, even suggesting a few extra refinements, which had been accepted.
With it all completed, they had reopened, with these cadets straight from Hong Kong, the first to attend, along with the six Free French, two of them women, and four Sarawak Rangers, who had arrived earlier in the day. Although Gavin was pleased that their work was being prioritised, nevertheless he worried that his training would be good enough, because he was of no doubt now that for a lot of these people, whether they lived or died, would be in no small part, down to the quality of training he gave.
Lt Col Jim Gavin stood in front of them, 27 men from Hong Kong, who had only been allowed to leave the ship in Singapore, after dark, to be escorted down the gangplank carrying their rucksacks, straight into four waiting light trucks. A nearly two-hour drive followed, a crawl at some times, down roads that became increasingly narrower and quieter, until a remote estate beside the Jurong River. On entering a small square, they had been helped out of the trucks and led into a large house, where Gavin was waiting in the lounge.
“Ah gentlemen, in a little while we will serve dinner, and then we’ll show you to your rooms, but before that I’d just like to say, welcome to our little home, Training School 101, we are kind of cramped in here, but I hope you find your stay rewarding”. Gavin looked around the room and saw four Europeans, seven Eurasians and sixteen Chinese. “I just like to introduce you to your Chief Instructor, Captain Chapman”
“Thank you, Jim, now gentlemen, your reports state you are all healthy, and have a good level of fitness, which is just as well, because the next twenty-one days are going to be very intense. You will all undergo a seven-day basic training course, before we split you up into your specialist roles. Some of you will become expert saboteurs, others observers and intelligence gatherers, spy’s and assassins, working alone, or in left behind parties, and all of you, experts in field craft.
Gavin looked on, only partly listening, while his mind thought on. They had opened in July, and were deemed an immediate success, but the camp facilities were too limited, and the number they could train were pitiful. Col Warren had come to see them in late August, and had asked what was needed to give a fivefold increase in trained operatives, and Gavin, along with Spenser had said what they thought. Surprisingly, two days later Warren was back, saying everything was agreed, even the construction of a short rail line, something Spenser had asked for, never thinking they’d get it. And as soon as the current course was complete, about a week later, the camp was closed.
They had been shut for nearly four weeks, while a couple of platoons of Australian sappers had been sent in to construct classrooms, quarters, and associated buildings for a staff of twenty, plus up to forty students. But what was most interesting was they also had constructed some pill boxes, two bridges over the same stream, about 100 yards apart, one, part of the small stretch of railway line, and a collection of huts, resembling a small village. Sworn to secrecy the Australians had done a fine job, even suggesting a few extra refinements, which had been accepted.
With it all completed, they had reopened, with these cadets straight from Hong Kong, the first to attend, along with the six Free French, two of them women, and four Sarawak Rangers, who had arrived earlier in the day. Although Gavin was pleased that their work was being prioritised, nevertheless he worried that his training would be good enough, because he was of no doubt now that for a lot of these people, whether they lived or died, would be in no small part, down to the quality of training he gave.
I posted it twice. WiKi
Planning for this offensive was undertaken by the Japanese Military Affairs Bureau's Unit 82 based in Taiwan. Intelligence on Malaya was gathered through a network of agents which included Japanese embassy staff; disaffected Malayans (particularly members of the Japanese-established Tortoise Society);[citation needed] and Japanese, Korean, and Taiwanese business people and tourists. Japanese spies, which included a British intelligence officer, Captain Patrick Stanley Vaughan Heenan, also provided intelligence and assistance.[17]
Prior to hostilities Japanese intelligence officers like Iwaichi Fujiwara had established covert intelligence offices (or Kikans) that linked up with the Malay and Indian pro-independence organisations such as Kesatuan Melayu Muda in Malaya Indian Independence League. The Japanese gave these movements financial support in return for their members providing intelligence and later assistance in determining Allied troop movements, strengths, and dispositions prior to the invasion.[18]
Through the operation of these networks prior to the invasion the Japanese knew where the Commonwealth forces were based and their unit strengths, had good maps of Malaya, and had local guides available to provide them with directions.[19]
The Luftwaffe was notorious for its lack of radio discipline. The Japanese were notorious for having poor or none working radios. There won't be much radio chatter to pick up.
But.....this is not the BoB. The RAF, Park and his pilots, and even his radar operators and communications people have now all been "blooded". They have learned lessons from fighting the Germans and Italians. I think specifically given the butterflied transfer of Park, his staff, his pilots and the radar and communications personnel/gear that the likelihood they are not working diligently to explore all potential areas of improvement is close to zero. So to just write things off as "it will be OTL all over again" is to not acknowledge the layering of incremental improvements that could be made prior to the first Japanese attacks and the overall impact that could make. That's not to say that anyone should expect to see the IJAAF shot down and burnt to pieces on day one.....but especially with their light builds, attrition could quickly have that force facing unsustainable losses (unrepairable damage, lack of parts, injured pilots, etc.).
[Had to edit as original wording in 4th sentence was absolute and total nonsense
]
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If you learn from your last experience, what did they learn about fighting the Germans, and Italians. Against the Italians they learned Bi-Planes are too slow and maneuverable to dogfight. Against the Bf-109E/F you have to engage in a turning fight. So, if the Japanese are as fast as a Hurricane IIB but they have better maneuverability but poor pilots what do they do? Well since the British think their better pilots, they do what their trained to do and dog fight. To effectively use hit and run tactics you need superior speed, and altitude and you may not have that most of the time.
The Japanese are going to be pounding the hell out of RAF bases. If the RAF is putting up such a tough fight the carriers that hit Pearl Harbor will pay them a visit if necessary. When they raided Ceylon, the Hurricane proved it was no match for the Zero. If the British send hundreds of Hurricane's to Malaya the Japanese will do what they have to do to destroy them. It's not as if they have no options to up their game.
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And the RN falls to its knees and thanks the Lord for being British
. Places not to put carriers include anywhere near Singapore , no hope of sneaking in, semi restricted waters and sailing right into every sub the RN can muster aided by land based ASV aided night strikes.Sure, they are heavy patrol lines 200 miles east of Singapore just waiting for any Japanese ships getting near Singapore. How many did they get? In March 42 when the British knew the Japanese carriers were going through the Straits of Malacca, they didn't have any subs waiting for them. Not all prays are answered. The RN didn't have many subs in the theater.And the RN falls to its knees and thanks the Lord for being British
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Again stop thinking that everything will be as OTL! From what has already been revealed it looks like there will be more submarines present. In OTL, March 1942 is AFTER Singapore fell, so its not really a guide to what might happen if Singapore is still in allied hands. OTL it was no longer an allied sub base, no longer was flying maritime patrols to locate targets and also had Japanese air/sea patrols based from it so forcing allied subs further away.