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timelines:south_east_asia_the_future_is_now

2014-2017:

2 February, 2014 - In elections in Thailand, PM Yingluck Shinawatra's Pheu Thai party wins an outright majority over the Democratic Party, which decides to stand for elections despite calls from opposition politician Suthep Thaungsuban's call to boycott the election.

9 July, 2014 - In a surprise victory over former President Megawati Sukarnoputri and Aburizal Bakrie, Mayor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo of Jakarta wins by a landslide and becomes the 7th President of Indonesia.

3 September, 2014 - The final version of the Bangsamoro treaty between the Philippine government and the MILF is signed. Among other things, it creates a new autonomous Bangsamoro region with sweeping devolved powers.

5 October, 2014 - In a joint session of the Diet, the controversial “War Powers Amendment” passes by a wide margin. China and South Korea protest.

12 October, 2014 - Despite protests from Nur Misuari and the now-discredited MNLF, the Bangsamoro Accords are ratified by Congress, subject to a referendum.

31 December, 2014 - The Philippine economy continues to grow at a record pace, going as high as 6.3% this year, and with a projected high of around 7.1% (by some estimates). This has lead some analysts to make the claim that the Philippines could become the fastest-growing economy in the world.

3 January, 2015 - A referendum on the Bangsamoro Accords is approved by 78% of the people. Elections with the devolved Bangsamoro Assembly are scheduled 6 months from now.

6 June, 2015 - Elections in the 75-seat Bangsamoro Assembly take place. The results are as follows…

Bangsamoro People's Party (Democratic Islamist party) - 31 seats Liberal Party - 23 seats National Front (Left-Wing Nationalism, Independentist) - 12 seats PDP-Laban - 6 seats Independents - 3 seats

October 27, 2015 - The Indonesian government's reckless attack on East Timor, UN Peacekeepers, and dual Canadian-Australian naval forces faces international condemnation from world leaders. Public anger in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto peak into mass demonstrations and calls for retaliation. Rioting outside embassies in Canberra and Ottawa leads to the closure of all Indonesian diplomatic centres in both countries. Such actions come at a pivotal stage in Southeast Asia, as increased maritime deployment by the USN and PLAN in the region are accused as 'provocative' by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

9 May, 2016 - The Philippines elects Mar Roxas for President. He vows to continue the reforms initiated under outgoing President Aquino.

January 4 2017: Cambodia, and the other Mexican summit nations announce interest in joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

3 March, 2017 - Construction of Manila's first underground subway has begun for a stretch of subway between the center of Manila and Ninoy Aquino International Airport. When complete around 2028 (in time for the 2028 Olympics), the Manila Metro would stretch some 300 miles over 6 lines and 175 stations across Metro Manila.

October 1, 2017: The People's Republic of China conducts naval wargames in the South China Sea with the Russian Navy, with both countries contributing an aircraft carrier. The exercise is closely watched by Japan and the United States, both of which are wary of growing military friendliness between China and Russia.

7 October, 2017 - 129th IOC Session - In a surprise vote, the IOC awards the 2028 Summer Olympics to Manila, Philippines. In a statement just after the selection, President Mar Roxas welcomes the challenge for the “Pearl City of the Orient”, promising to hold “one of the most memorable, if not THE most memorable Games”.

November 20, 2017: A Japanese F-2 fighter jet is shot down near the Senkaku Islands, triggering an international incident. Both China and Japan deploy forces ready for conflict, as does the US, while Russia puts its forces onto standby.

November 21, 2017: An emergency session of the United Nations manages to gain an agreement from all parties to stand down their military forces, while not blaming any one side for the confrontation. The United States prepares to increase its military commitment in Asia, ready to double the number of troops deployed in Australia.

2018-2020:

February 4th, 2018:

The Chinese Air Force announces the active service of the J-20 stealth fighter with serial production of several hundred models of the 5th generation fighter jet to begin later in the year.

China also announces a marine version of the J-20 capable of landing on the flight deck of China's home build aircraft carriers, the first of which was launched from Shanghai in 2016.

The completion of China's Beidou or compass gps system will allow the J-20 and other aircraft to carry out precision strikes aside from the civilian applications in mapping and navigation.

China's official military budget surpasses $265 billion for 2018, surpassing the rest of Asia combined. It is more than four times the military budget of Japan.

It is expected to surpass $350 billion in 2020.

Several nations, including Japan and the Philippines, embroiled in territorial disputes with Beijing over minor islands, but 5th generation aircraft from the United States out of fear of Beijing's growing regional military hegemony.

Although the move is not specifically directed against China, Delhi announces plans to complete the purchase of the first batch of of 5th generation P-51 stealth jets, developed jointly with Russia by 2020.

May 23rd, 2018:

US President Howard Dean formally inaugurates the trans-Pacific partnership in Manila. The trans-Oceanic pact includes parameters for the reducing tariffs and increasing trade, investment and cooperation in defense throughout the Pacific Rim.

Founding members include the US, Canada, Mexico, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Thailand, Indonesia, Panama, Chile, Peru, Nicàragua, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea.

China has “observer” status while also leading the SCO and SREZ.

Many observers see the TPP as a counterweight to China's growing economic and military power. However, China is the largest trading partner of every member and has particularly close ties with some of the Asian members including South Korea, Cambodia, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. The TPP is not a formal military alliance like NATO.

Nonetheless, Japan and the Philippines breàth a sign of relief when Dean reaffirms American defense commitments to the Asia-Pacific region and promises to increase the America troop presence in Australia.

The TPP highlights the complex, multifaceted nature of international relations in the Asia-Pacific region.

It remains to be seen whether the TPP becomes the premier international body of the Asia-Pacific region or is gradually replaced by a Chinese led system due to that countries economic significance.

September 12, 2019 – The Laotian Kunming-Vientane rail link finishes construction, cementing the 193 kilometre per hour transportation corridor as the first real regional thoroughfare for the landlocked nation. Spurring off from Chinese Jinghong, the $7.4 billion railway traverses from northern Luang Namtha through the UNESCO former Lao capital Luang Prabang, all the way to the Thai border to the reach the ports of Bangkok, ferrying passengers and industrial goods. The bill is largely footed by the Lao government through loans provided by the Export-Import Bank of China, in exchange for mineral, timber, and agricultural concessions – as the whole project is part of the grander scale Pan-Asia Railway, through which HSR is further connected with Kuala Lumpur and Singapore. The journey from Yunnan to Singapore is cut to a mere 12 hours, as commercial-consumer fares are set to formally take shape by next year.

4 November, 2019 - Construction begins on the new Luzon Link high-speed rail line from Baguio to Matnog, Sorsogon with stops in Dagupan, Angeles-Clark Airport, Manila, Calamba, Batangas, Naga, and Legazpi, with additional lines extending to both Cabanatuan and Olongapo and Subic Bay.

This is part of a massive transportation project by President Mar Roxas, which also includes a potential road/rail tunnel across the San Bernardino Strait.

February 26th, 2020:

Buoyed by surging gas production, infrastructure projects and rising consumption, Beijing moves towards full convertibility of the yuan. China established overseas yuan trading centers in Hong Kong in 2010 and London and Frankfurt in 2014. By the end the 2010s, China had opened additional centers for overseas yuan trading in Seoul, Tokyo, Singapore, Paris, Dubai, Tehran, Moscow, Sao Paolo, Mexico City, New York and Toronto making the Chinese yuan the third most commonly used currency in trade and the third largest reserve currency after the US Dollar and the Euro.

The yuan is expected to appreciate more rapidly against the dollar and the euro in coming years boosting Chinese consumption of domestic and imported products.

2021-2024:

March 20th, 2022: The 2022 Climate Change Action Conference finishes, with substantial promises from all governments in attendance. President Jones congratulated world leaders on the agreement, which she hopes will “slow or reverse the alarming rate of natural disasters the United States and the world now face”. The agreement, which requires a vast investment in clean energy and sweeping fuel-efficiency standards, was ratified by every government in attendance, even after the Japanese envoys threatened to leave the table following the talk of substantial nuclear energy expansion in seismically active areas such as Japan itself. President Dean, who has remained fairly quiet on his successor's Presidency, congratulated her “valiant efforts to combat the most dangerous foe the United States faces today”.

6 October, 2024 - Construction begins on the new Manila Olympic Stadium that will serve as the venue for athletic sporting events during the 2028 Olympics. Constructed on reclaimed land to the south of the city center (along with the rest of Olympic Park), it is one of the many projects by the Philippine government to prepare the city for the 2028 Games.

2025-2040:

August 31, 2027: Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, Archbishop of Manila is picked to succeed the deceased Pope Francis becoming the first East Asian pope. He picks the name of John Paul III in honor of St. John Paul II.

July 24th-August 9th, 2028: Manila Summer Olympics. The Philippine capital successfully hosts the summer Olympic Games becoming the first South East Asian city to do so.

An expansion of the subway and HSR system of Metro-Manila transforms the Philippine capital in time for the games, demonstrating that the Philippine capital is now a world class, first world city. New nuclear power stations and LNG plants burning imported American gas help reduce smog levels that had rivaled those in Delhi, Beijing, Shanghai, Jakarta, Bangkok, The South China Megacity and other emerging Asian megacities in the early 2020s signaling a commitment from recently developed èconomies to clean energy. Metro Manila has a population of 42 million having absorbed many satellite cities in Luzon, overtaking Greater Tokyo in population. 11 other cities in emerging Asian and African countries also have populations larger than greater Tokyo by this time.

China, Russia and the USA top the medals table. Although no where near the top of the medals table, the Philippines wins three gold medals in boxing, its most popular national sport.

September 29th, 2028: After successfully hosting the Olympic Games, Manila announcing the creation of the Philippine Space Agency and plans for manned missions in space in the 2030s, joining the growing number of space faring nations and private corporations.

February 3rd, 2030: Joining the growing number of nations and private corporations in space, Jakarta announces the formation of the Indonesian Space Organization.

April 16th, 2030: Numbers cross referenced from the IMF and the World Bank show that Indonesia has overtaken Mexico to become the world's seventh largest economy at 6.5 trillion US dollars. Indonesia is now a high income nation with a GDP per capita of $20,000 USD, abundant natural resources, a stable democracy and a growing manufacturing sector.

However, critics point out that greater Jakarta, population 38 million and growing, and other large cities are way ahead of less developed parts of the Indonesian archipelago.

The Philippines is now the twelfth largest economy in the world overtaking South Korea at $3.6 trillion USD with a GDP per capita of $30,000 USD. Greater Manila is way ahead of the rest of the country.

Malaysia is now a highly developed country.

May 8th, 2030: The Indonesian Space Organization leases four Skylon space planes for future manned missions to repair satellites, clean space junk and resupply the ISS in coordination with the International Space Agency.

July 5th, 2030: Manila announces the completion of the new Metro Manila International Air and Space Port outside the capital with HSR links to the city center. This new airport contains runways capable of handling the growing number of supersonic jets and space planes in the skies.

Cities from London to Munich to Moscow to Beijing to Tokyo to Chicago are also building new airports and runways for supersonic jets and spaceplanes.

August 3rd, 2030: The PSA purchases three old Dragon-X space shuttles from private contractor Space-X for manned missions.

February 17th, 2031: A Philippine astronaut launches into orbit aboard a Space-X rocket, orbiting the Earth three times and performing a space walk before splashing down in the South China Sea.

June 15-27, 2032: Under contract from the ISA, the ISO, the ISRO, the PSA and several private Malaysian corporations begin a mission to repair a series of weather satellites in orbit around Earth. This is the first time Indonesian and Malaysian astronauts carry out missions bearing the insignia of the respective national space administrations.

September 3-16, 2033: Astronauts from the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and India collaborate once again on the largest space junk clean up mission in history, removing tons of debree threatening satellites from an assortment of nations and corporations as well as the the ISS and the Chinese Space Station.

The respective nations hire private space corporations to assist them signaling the increased commercialization of space flight.

timelines/south_east_asia_the_future_is_now.txt · Last modified: 2014/05/09 19:32 by davidr151