How would the Soviet invasion of Finland have fared in November 1939 if Zhukov had been placed in overall command at the outset, given that he was arguably the greatest Soviet general of the age? Would the Soviet invasion have been much better planned and organised? Would it have avoided the initial disasters? Would it even have resulted in a decisive Soviet victory?
Zhukov in command during the winter war.
- Thread starter Alan
- Start date
No, the forces allocated initially were inadequate in size and ill-trained as they expected Finland to fold like paper and the proletariat masses to rise in revolt. The basic Soviet deployment plan was sound and achieved strategic surprise by forcing Finns to deploy large forces north of Lake Ladoga.
If Zhukov convinces Stalin to deploy the necessary level of forces (58 divisions) from the outset, the war will probably end much sooner, but breaking through Mannerheim line would still require time.
The greatest Soviet failure in the beginning of the war, IMHO, was the failure to use the superior naval forces available. Åland isles could have been taken by coup de main, thus effectively cutting most of the communications between Sweden and Finland and by mere possession offering a latent threat towards Finnish west coast up to Tornio.
TruthfulPanda
Gone Fishin'
You are aware that the Gulf of Finland freezes up every year, and that 1939 had an unusually early and cold winter?
I believe he is fully aware of that. The winter was cold, but the sea ice did not really prevent naval operations until January 1940. For example the Finnish submarines operated until January 1st 1940. Only then it was deemed too dangerous to continue submarine patrols.
The ice conditions would not have stopped the Red Banner Baltic Fleet from acting much more aggressively in the first weeks of December. The problem, as I understand, was that they simply did not have the plans for an aggressive naval campaign against Finland. The 1930s Soviet naval plans for the Baltic Sea were essentially defensive, and AFAIK any real plans for taking control of the Ålands, for example, were only made after the Winter War. (Pavel Petrov, a St.Petersburg-based Russian researcher, has just completed a study on the Soviet naval plans of the period, unfortunately it is only available in Russian. This information about the plans is what I could glean from his presentation in Helsinki a while ago.)
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Deleted member 14881
I mean IIRC the Soviets didn't use the local Karelians and other people who knew the terrain deciding to use Ukrainian and other people from the Southern bits of the USSR. I mean you definitely need to change their view of Finland that they would fold upon first contact with the Red Army, but how?. I would assume a victory in Finland that took probably 2 to 3 months would precipitate some level of reform. But I'm not sure.
I believe I'm quite aware of Finnish weather and the winter of 1939-1940 in particular...
As DrakonFin put, the freezing did not progress as fast as to impede operations initially. And, due to unusual cold winter of 1939-1940 (when you could drive a truck from Sweden to Finland), the frozen seas are actually a bonus for hypothetical Soviet forces in Åland - they can advance via ice. Even raids would strain Finnish forces significantly.
TruthfulPanda
Gone Fishin'
Thank you Good People for illuminating me on the fine details of the winter of 1939-1940
Now, I wouldn't say off hand that an attack over the ice from Hiiumaa or the Estonian mainland to Åland would have been impossible in, say, February 1940. It would have been significantly more difficult than the successful Finnish operation to take Suursaari with a similar attack in 1942, though. With Suursaari, we are only talking about crossing c. 40 km of ice. With the operation you are envisioning, the Soviets would have to cross 150 km of ice to reach Mariehamn. Even the ice road between Vaasa and Umeå during the Winter War was shorter than that, and it was a lot more north where they could rely on a stronger ice cover. If the Soviets used ships (with icebreaker support) to bring the troops closer, then there would be a much bigger chance for the Finns to see and understand what is happening.
What we would need, then, would be Soviet troops well versed in winter warfare, led by a highly skilled and lucky, hugely ballsy Soviet commander, one who could sell this highly unorthodox operation to his superiors in the first place. I'd personally rate it unlikely that such an operation would be tried - even if the Soviets had pre-made plans for more aggressive naval operations. And then if it would be launched, the risks presented by the ice conditions, etc, would be significant.
It would make for a pretty awesome story, though.
I think that's infeasible due to long distances and rough conditions. What I purported to mean was a situation in which Soviets had occupied Åland - easiest with coup de main at the start of the conflict when the isles were demilitarized with no troops at all - and, after the seas had frozen would mount raids from bases already there. An attack over ice from Hiiumaa to Åland would be extremely risky due to fact that Finnish troops were already in place.