Young Turk Revolution of 1908 fails

VVD0D95

Banned
Say the Young Turk revolution of 1908 fails to either get off the ground, or just fails completely, what consequences would there be for the Ottoman Empire? Was the decay and dissolution of the Empire and the removal of the Sultanate inevitable? Was the march to democracy also inevitable?
 

Aphrodite

Banned
Russia and Austria continue with their game of propping up the Sultan and avoiding all change to the Balkans. If Italy still declares war over Libya, Abdul Hamid is likely to be far more realistic than the Turks OTL and cut a face saving deal leaving him in far better shape to deal with the Balkan league- assuming it still forms

If a WWI situation develops, he's likely to sit it out and play both sides for concessions. He'll only join a side after he's convinced they will win

Internally, the Ottomans would stay their course with no major changes. Abdul Hamid has ten years yet to live- he might be able to hold on that long
 

VVD0D95

Banned
Aphrodite said:
Russia and Austria continue with their game of propping up the Sultan and avoiding all change to the Balkans. If Italy still declares war over Libya, Abdul Hamid is likely to be far more realistic than the Turks OTL and cut a face saving deal leaving him in far better shape to deal with the Balkan league- assuming it still forms

If a WWI situation develops, he's likely to sit it out and play both sides for concessions. He'll only join a side after he's convinced they will win

Internally, the Ottomans would stay their course with no major changes. Abdul Hamid has ten years yet to live- he might be able to hold on that long
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Interesting, so possible avoidance of the Balkan wars? Or perhaps a less humiliating defeat for the Turks in that regard. And also, seemingly peaceful hand over of Libya
 

Deleted member 94680

Aphrodite said:
Russia and Austria continue with their game of propping up the Sultan and avoiding all change to the Balkans. If Italy still declares war over Libya, Abdul Hamid is likely to be far more realistic than the Turks OTL and cut a face saving deal leaving him in far better shape to deal with the Balkan league- assuming it still forms

If a WWI situation develops, he's likely to sit it out and play both sides for concessions. He'll only join a side after he's convinced they will win

Internally, the Ottomans would stay their course with no major changes. Abdul Hamid has ten years yet to live- he might be able to hold on that long
Click to expand...

I think this pretty neatly sums up the likely course of events.

Just out of curiosity, what kind of face saving deal do you think he’ll cut? An Italian “Khedivate” much the same as the British in Egypt?

VVD0D95 said:
Interesting, so possible avoidance of the Balkan wars? Or perhaps a less humiliating defeat for the Turks in that regard. And also, seemingly peaceful hand over of Libya
Click to expand...

If, and I stress if, the Ottomans avoid the War with the Italians then there’s every chance the Balkan Wars will be butterflied away. It was the Ottoman’s performance against the Italians that gave the Balkan States the push to start their war.

The Sultanate may even be seen as a regional bulwark and receive support from the Great Powers (diplomatic at least) to dissuade the Balkans from trying anything.


This throws up the possibility of the Ottoman Empire surviving longer, if it can modernise and industrialise with support from Great Powers wanting a return on their investments...
 

VVD0D95

Banned
Stenz said:
I think this pretty neatly sums up the likely course of events.

Just out of curiosity, what kind of face saving deal do you think he’ll cut? An Italian “Khedivate” much the same as the British in Egypt?



If, and I stress if, the Ottomans avoid the War with the Italians then there’s every chance the Balkan Wars will be butterflied away. It was the Ottoman’s performance against the Italians that gave the Balkan States the push to start their war.

The Sultanate may even be seen as a regional bulwark and receive support from the Great Powers (diplomatic at least) to dissuade the Balkans from trying anything.


This throws up the possibility of the Ottoman Empire surviving longer, if it can modernise and industrialise with support from Great Powers wanting a return on their investments...
Click to expand...
Intriguing, so this could well mean no Thessaloniki for Greece, and a stilted idea for the Greek nationalism which could have severe consequences for their monarchy
 

VVD0D95

Banned
Stenz said:
They were formed as we recognise them by their French occupation. In this TL if that doesn’t happen, different nations will form.
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Ah this is true, though could the Ottomans stave off the loss of such territory for that long?
 

VVD0D95

Banned
TimTurner said:
If any ideology could have held the Ottoman Empire together, it would have been pan-Islamism.
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Hmm this is true, I guess it also depends on whether there are any previous wars before World War One that fuck them up. Saudi Arabia, is going to be interesting, if it does indeed form,
 
Indicus

Indicus

Stenz said:
They were formed as we recognise them by their French occupation. In this TL if that doesn’t happen, different nations will form.
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I dunno. If the Ottomans can’t avoid being on the losing side of the First World War, their collapse into an Anatolian rump, at the very least, is hard to avoid. And if the Ottomans collapse, the European powers are going to want a piece of its remains.
 

Deleted member 94680

Indicus said:
I dunno. If the Ottomans can’t avoid being on the losing side of the First World War, their collapse into an Anatolian rump, at the very least, is hard to avoid. And if the Ottomans collapse, the European powers are going to want a piece of its remains.
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But without the grasping incompetence of the CUP in charge, it’s unlikely the Sultan will take them into WWI voluntarily. By remaining neutral and benevolent to the WAllies (likely, as they were the main creditors) there’s every chance the Ottomans will come out of WWI largely unscathed.
 

VVD0D95

Banned
Stenz said:
But without the grasping incompetence of the CUP in charge, it’s unlikely the Sultan will take them into WWI voluntarily. By remaining neutral and benevolent to the WAllies (likely, as they were the main creditors) there’s every chance the Ottomans will come out of WWI largely unscathed.
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Which would completely change the middle east, I think the Saud's would still get the chance at Nejd, but whether they go full hog for Hejaz is another thing entirely
 

Deleted member 94680

VVD0D95 said:
Which would completely change the middle east, I think the Saud's would still get the chance at Nejd, but whether they go full hog for Hejaz is another thing entirely
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This then throws up the possibility of an Anglo-Saudi War, as the British would still be viewing the Ottomans with a weary benevolence, as pre-WWI OTL. They were keen to protect “their possessions” in the Middle East and until the Ottomans became the enemy, the Saudis were seen as a destabilising presence. Minus an Anglo-Ottoman conflict and (if the Sultan plays it right) the British might well fend off the Saudis for him.
 
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