Would there be a mass genocide against Israelis if Israel lost the 1948 War?

[THE KINGFISH]

PLEASE NOTE: I do not support Israel’s past/current actions in occupied Palestine - nor the advocation of Israel’s destruction and genocide of Jews living there.

With that said, Israel and Zionists that defend it will cite that had Israel lost the 1948 Arab-Israeli War - there would be a truly massive ethic cleansing that would render the Jews - already reduced in numbers after the Holocaust - near extinct and reduced to ethnic enclaves in Western cities.

But is this really true? Would level heads prevail and give the Israelis autonomy - with something else happening with Jerusalem? (IIRC, the earliest Zionists only wanted a Jewish state, didn’t have to include Jerusalem, though correct me if I’m wrong) Or would the Arab armies release their pent-up nationalistic anger and slaughter the Jews? Or would something else happen that’s neither of these things? How would the West react?

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Brutalised and displaced, absolutely. Genocided? Debatable.

 

[Comte de Geneve]

Yes, total destruction of Palestinian Jewry would ensue. At this time the 'west' could care less.

 

[CalBear]

They lose in 1948 and they're in the Sea.

I doubt that there would be an outright systemic slaughter of every Jew in Israel, despite a good deal of indifference the U.S. and British aren't going to sit around and watch that sort of endless bloodletting by the worst elements of the Arab populations (in all likelihood the Western States wouldn't need to, the Jordanian's Arab Legion was far from a band of brigands).

 

[Lalli]

Expulsion, some ethnic cleansing and occassional violence? Surely. But ouright genocide? I bit doubt that. There probably would be enough of cool heads who wouldn't accept that if not because of humanitarian resons but worried about reputation of Arab world after they would had done same as nazis.

 

[TimTurner]

US+Soviet Union both have interest in preventing a genocide. In the end, you end up with a Jewish statelit along the coast but with significantly less land than the UN Partition Plan would have given them.

 

[Whiteshore]

In the end, you end up with a Jewish statelit along the coast but with significantly less land than the UN Partition Plan would have given them.

Would the borders the Peel Commission gave a potential Jewish state back in the 1930s be a good equivalent for the borders of such a state, on that note?

 

[PecuTheGreat]

The Jewish state would be completely extinguished. No Jewish coastal satalite state either.

Outright genocide probably won't happen cuz USA and USSR won't want it or just look at Kenya and Zimbabwe for examples, no genocide tho in Israel's case, there'll be Medieval Turk or maybe even Japanese level of disregard for civilian life.

Post war, Arab persecution of Jewery would continue.

 

[Whiteshore]

Outright genocide probably won't happen cuz USA and USSR won't want it or just look at Kenya and Zimbabwe for examples, no genocide tho in Israel's case, there'll be Medieval Turk or maybe even Japanese level of disregard for civilian life.

OTOH, as the Tutsis of Rwanda found out in 1994 with the Rwandan Genocide, genocide does not require gas chambers or even firing squads, with how the method of genocide of the Tutsis consisted of machetes and shortwave radios for the most part with 800,000 Tutsis dying in a hundred days. And on that note, where would surviving Jews largely move after being kicked out of Palestine? Would we see situations where generations of Jews, in a mirror of how Palestinian refugee camps are still occupied after 75 years and have become permanent settlements, live in "temporary" refugee camps which have become permanent towns?

 

[Crazy Boris]

With the Holocaust just a few years in the past, even with agitation from the hardcore Arab ultranationalists, the leadership of the Arab countries are going to do their best to make sure an outright genocide doesn’t happen, lest they take on the reputation of the Third Reich, with expulsion rather than death being the goal. How merciful they’ll be to the Jews will probably depend on each country, but that’s just official policy, on the ground, random soldiers and lower level leadership will probably be more willing to defy that or turn a blind eye to abuses. There would be at least a few outright massacres of Jewish civilians, especially in localities heavy with Zionist migrants, I imagine Jewish communities with non-Zionist roots might get a more lenient treatment, but when the passions of prejudice are burning bright, there’s no way their safety is guaranteed.

Whether it’s all Jews targeted indiscriminately or if Zionist arrivals are singled out, I don’t think there will be many left in Palestine by war’s end, most will flee abroad, I assume mostly to the USA, Canada, Latin America, and some parts of Europe, and the idea of a Jewish state in their ancestral home will have to be put on hold indefinitely. Zionism might splinter over the failure to establish Israel into different factions, making any future Jewish aspirations in the holy land even more unlikely.

I imagine the land of Palestine itself would become a patchwork of occupation areas of the various Arab armies until a Palestinian state can be established, probably under Egyptian aegis since they’re the Arab world’s top dog at the time. Antisemitism in the Arab world might cool down after a few decades, since they won here, no Israel means no constant conflict to reignite anti-Jewish attitudes, but conversely, anti-Arab sentiment will be very high among Jews after so many of them suffer at the hands of Arab armies and the dreams of a homeland are crushed.

Kinda got off topic here and speculated on an Arab victory in general, but in conclusion, I think the Arab states are going to want to avoid anything resembling a genocide, but on the battlefield, unsanctioned acts against civilians will be a bloodbath and the war will end with Palestine having far fewer Jews than it did before.

 

[Whiteshore]

Whether it’s all Jews targeted indiscriminately or if Zionist arrivals are singled out, I don’t think there will be many left in Palestine by war’s end, most will flee abroad, I assume mostly to the USA, Canada, Latin America, and some parts of Europe, and the idea of a Jewish state in their ancestral home will have to be put on hold indefinitely.

On that note, Australia, Rhodesia, and South Africa could be other potential areas for immigration for Jews, especially with how Australia IOTL had a “populate or perish” policy encouraging (white) immigration in this time period.

 

[Pauh the federalist]

With the Holocaust just a few years in the past, even with agitation from the hardcore Arab ultranationalists, the leadership of the Arab countries are going to do their best to make sure an outright genocide doesn’t happen, lest they take on the reputation of the Third Reich, with expulsion rather than death being the goal. How merciful they’ll be to the Jews will probably depend on each country, but that’s just official policy, on the ground, random soldiers and lower level leadership will probably be more willing to defy that or turn a blind eye to abuses. There would be at least a few outright massacres of Jewish civilians, especially in localities heavy with Zionist migrants, I imagine Jewish communities with non-Zionist roots might get a more lenient treatment, but when the passions of prejudice are burning bright, there’s no way their safety is guaranteed.

Whether it’s all Jews targeted indiscriminately or if Zionist arrivals are singled out, I don’t think there will be many left in Palestine by war’s end, most will flee abroad, I assume mostly to the USA, Canada, Latin America, and some parts of Europe, and the idea of a Jewish state in their ancestral home will have to be put on hold indefinitely. Zionism might splinter over the failure to establish Israel into different factions, making any future Jewish aspirations in the holy land even more unlikely.

I imagine the land of Palestine itself would become a patchwork of occupation areas of the various Arab armies until a Palestinian state can be established, probably under Egyptian aegis since they’re the Arab world’s top dog at the time. Antisemitism in the Arab world might cool down after a few decades, since they won here, no Israel means no constant conflict to reignite anti-Jewish attitudes, but conversely, anti-Arab sentiment will be very high among Jews after so many of them suffer at the hands of Arab armies and the dreams of a homeland are crushed.

Kinda got off topic here and speculated on an Arab victory in general, but in conclusion, I think the Arab states are going to want to avoid anything resembling a genocide, but on the battlefield, unsanctioned acts against civilians will be a bloodbath and the war will end with Palestine having far fewer Jews than it did before.

This. I would expect most arab nations would not do anything like that to risk losing a war they had already won by incuring the wrath of international intervention to stop the genocide and expel arab forces with it so soon after ww2 i would expect a UN security council vote to pass the issue with the soviats supporting the motion or at the least abstaining like the UN intervention in the Korean war.

United Nations Security Council Resolution 82 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Belisarius II]

Jews in areas captured by the Jordanians such as West Jerusalem would have the best chance of survival. The Egyptians were mostly interested in seizing Gaza, and the Syrians Galilei. Any area taken by the Palestinians the Jews would be dead. None of the Jews who lived in settlements on what became the West Bank survived. Jews that survived would be second class citizens and have to keep their heads low if they wanted to live. Think of the way Kurds have had to live in Syria. Jewish prospects would be grim.

 

[PecuTheGreat]

OTOH, as the Tutsis of Rwanda found out in 1994 with the Rwandan Genocide, genocide does not require gas chambers or even firing squads, with how the method of genocide of the Tutsis consisted of machetes and shortwave radios for the most part with 800,000 Tutsis dying in a hundred days. And on that note, where would surviving Jews largely move after being kicked out of Palestine? Would we see situations where generations of Jews, in a mirror of how Palestinian refugee camps are still occupied after 75 years and have become permanent settlements, live in "temporary" refugee camps which have become permanent towns?

The Rwandans genocide is the exception not the rule and as with the Rwandan genocide and Biafran war(and arguably also the recent Tigrayan) war show, Genocide is more likely in these post-colonial situations when it is seen as a purely internal affair, that's one of the many reasons why White settlers in Zimbabwe and Kenya weren't genocided.

And the majority Ashkenazi state of 1940s Israel is more similar to Rhodesia or the White Highlands of Kenya than to the Tutsis of Rwanda or Biafrans.

As for what would happen to Jews, mass migrantion back to the West. In order of preference, USA, Latin America and Europe. This migrantion would be not only because of the war but also because of strong anti-Jew laws that'll follow after.

This wave of anti-Jewish laws will also extend to the rest of MENA territories with Mizrahi Jews similarly mass migrating to the West. Tho, I don't think they'll be as completely gone as they are in OTL.

 

[PecuTheGreat]

I imagine the land of Palestine itself would become a patchwork of occupation areas of the various Arab armies until a Palestinian state can be established, probably under Egyptian aegis since they’re the Arab world’s top dog at the time.

No, this is the 40s. Palestine would be split between Egypt, Syria, Jordan and maybe Lebanon. With Jordan gaining the largest share

 

[Monk78]

Can the Jews buy their way out or by surrendering the land for safe passage?
Iran and turkey could be popular destinations

Also there is a possibility of immediate Jordanian vs Syrian vs Egyptian tensions arising as soon as hostilities with Israel cease. And factionalism amongst the Palestinians as well

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

And on that note, where would surviving Jews largely move after being kicked out of Palestine?

Initially? Cyprus with the intention of trying to get to the US or later Australia, though how many either would be willing to take is another question.

 

[THE KINGFISH]

Jews in areas captured by the Jordanians such as West Jerusalem would have the best chance of survival. The Egyptians were mostly interested in seizing Gaza, and the Syrians Galilei. Any area taken by the Palestinians the Jews would be dead. None of the Jews who lived in settlements on what became the West Bank survived. Jews that survived would be second class citizens and have to keep their heads low if they wanted to live. Think of the way Kurds have had to live in Syria. Jewish prospects would be grim.

No, this is the 40s. Palestine would be split between Egypt, Syria, Jordan and maybe Lebanon. With Jordan gaining the largest share

So assuming most of Israel/Palestine is under Jordanian occupation, then most Jews living there would survive (assuming they don’t choose to leave, and some definitely will). They may or may not receive autonomy.

On a slightly related matter, many of the moderate Arab regimes from before the 1950s (Syrian First Republic, Kingdom of Egypt, Kingdom of Iraq) fell because those countries lost the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. If Israel lost, would those countries still be under similar governance - or would they fall to extremism in some form or another later on?

 

[rfmcdonald]

So assuming most of Israel/Palestine is under Jordanian occupation, then most Jews living there would survive (assuming they don’t choose to leave, and some definitely will). They may or may not receive autonomy.

The most I can imagine would be some sort of collective autonomy as a religious minority, not a territorial autonomy.

Agreed that Jordan is likeliest to see a survival of some pre-1948 Jewish populations. Other areas are likely to see total or near-total exoduses.

I also think that Jewish populations elsewhere in the Middle East will also end up emigrating almost totally when colonialism comes to an end. Especially in a situation where independent Arab regimes are deeply invested in the bloody destruction of the nascent Jewish polity just years after the Holocaust, why would Jews stay anywhere in the region?

This would have the biggest impact on France, I think, considering how that country's Jewish population is now mostly descended from Sephardic migrants from North Africa. OTL half of this population went to Israel; in this ATL, France will be the only option.

On a slightly related matter, many of the moderate Arab regimes from before the 1950s (Syrian First Republic, Kingdom of Egypt, Kingdom of Iraq) fell because those countries lost the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. If Israel lost, would those countries still be under similar governance - or would they fall to extremism in some form or another later on?

If the old order has proven itself able to meet the challenge of the Zionist settlement, it would have rather better chances. I would note that this would not be certain chances: Iraq particularly, with its demographics and the unpopular Hashemite, would face difficult prospects.

 

[HIM Dogson]

Yes, total destruction of Palestinian Jewry would ensue. At this time the 'west' could care less.

with new york's 47 electoral votes any american government is absolutely going to care