Would the USSR have survived if they lost WW2?

[marathag]

What makes you think the Nazis would surrender after an atomic attack? It took literal divine intervention for the Japanese to stop and they were on the verge of starvation. A successful reich, with all the resources of the Soviets (even the ones left over after all the genocide) is not just going to surrender to some nukes - if you could even get them through.

I say no to the Deus Ex Nukina solution.

Because the US had planned to mass produce atomic bombs
Since the Luftwaffe couldn't stop thousand plane raids, they couldn't stop single B-29s from destroying every single city that hadn't been destroyed by conventional bombing
Even Nazi Übermensch needed functional cities to continue a war

 

[raharris1973]

Why do you think the Politburo (what’s left of it at least) wouldn’t have been able to escape past the Urals? They certainly would have had enough time since the Reich aren’t magically reaching the A-A line or the Urals overnight.

Many people in government had been evacuated to Kuibyshev/Samara at the Volga already. It is not too far from there to the Urals.

I wished people stopped taking The Big One by Stuart Slade as fact.

What is that a reference to? A book, an article, a song?

The WAllied leadership aren’t going to turn Nazi Europe into a charnel house with nuclear weapons.

Only because it will take them years to mass produce sufficient weapons and delivery systems to glass all the German cities.

Impracticality, rather than morality, will be what stops them, at least in the short-run.

But the Germans, once aware of the atomic capability, and once seeing it used, are going to complicate Allied targeting, my moving ke production and command nodes that are within air range into occupied countries and moving slave labor populations and POWs into Reich cities, so selective genocide of Germans won't be possible with atomic means.

During the war the British and Americans are going to be promising stuff to keep the Soviets in.

Sure, but with the Soviets having lost so much, promising them their original territory back is promising them quite alot already.

The Baltics are interesting, a power vacuum, can a government and a military force be setup before the Soviets try to move in????

It all just depends whose partisans, and outside organized military units, are closer to the Baltic states at the time of German capitulation. How far have modernized Soviet units advanced from the Ural-Volga ish frontier by the time of capitulation in the direction of the Baltics? How far are western mobile forces, or other potential intervenors, like the Swedes, from the Baltics. Likewise, are there partisans nearby? Are they loyal to the Soviets, or are they Baltic nationalist.

 

[Booster Gold]

Because the US had planned to mass produce atomic bombs
Since the Luftwaffe couldn't stop thousand plane raids, they couldn't stop single B-29s from destroying every single city that hadn't been destroyed by conventional bombing
Even Nazi Übermensch needed functional cities to continue a war

The luftwaffe the Soviets broke couldn't stop plane raids. A functional luftwaffe, with ground based support, and full resources, over friendly skies, is a different animal.

And what if the Nazis start moving production into French, Dutch, Polish, etc., civilian areas? Or just out of allied plane range generally?

You're also way overestimating the power of atomic (as opposed to hydrogen) bombs.

You also forget that the Japanese were literally going to fight with sticks and stones and that was after they'd already lost.

There is no Deus Ex Nukina solution to a Nazi Europe

 

[TDM]

The luftwaffe the Soviets broke couldn't stop plane raids. A functional luftwaffe, with ground based support, and full resources, over friendly skies, is a different animal.

The Luftwaffe wasn't broken by the soviets, overall far more LW planes where lost in the West/Med/N.Africa and over Germany then in the east. Of course as we get further into 1945 all LW loses are over Germany no matter who's shooting them down but by then there's just not that much LW flying anyway!

And in this scenario the Luftwaffe infrastructure is potentially being hit by atomic weapons

And what if the Nazis start moving production into French, Dutch, Polish, etc., civilian areas? Or just out of allied plane range generally?

Germany is still the heart of the 3rd Reich, it's entire modus operandi is to create wider empire of subservient territories that supply it with resources then put under central German control.

And even if they do temporally move production* into the Reich protectorates what then. Are they going to keep it all there or at some point will they move it's products back to Germany (X,000 planes sitting safe in hangers in western Russia don't do the LW over Berlin any good). Plus what are they going to do about German cities with German populations and German Government and Nazi infrastructure. Are they going to move them too?

Plus if this is protracted affair and US resources are focused on the air campaign I expect to see quicker than OTL developments in long range bombers to chase German Reich relocated industry/infrastructure to be thing


*and frankly assuming Germany can do what the USSR did, kind of ignores some fundamental differences in the way the German and USSR industries were set up and managed.

You're also way overestimating the power of atomic (as opposed to hydrogen) bombs.

This is kind of true, and I agree no way does Germany surrender after one or two**. But given the US/allies resource advantages during an ongoing atomic bombing campaign they will ramp up production and development of the weapon (and how it's deployed). OTL production figures for 1946 onwards were peacetime after all.


**well unless they get really lucky and somehow take out Hitler and top brass maybe

You also forget that the Japanese were literally going to fight with sticks and stones and that was after they'd already lost.

True but hows that relevent here? Even if we accept the Germans will do the same (and some will), a 3rd Reich that is reduced to a civilian population fighting invading forces with sticks and stones amongst ruins, radioactive or otherwise is no longer the 3rd Reich that's marshaling a conquered Europe/western Russia's resources and mobilizing it into mass production of war materials

There is no Deus Ex Nukina solution to a Nazi Europe

You right it won't be a Deus Ex, it will be the US/allies employing it's massive resources to develop, produce and deploy a huge air campaign including atomic bombs, all while safe from German reprisals against it's production facilities.

An issue with this particular debate is that many seem to think of it terms of the OTL use of two atomic bombs on Japan, and limit the options to either the OTL magic bullet will defeat Nazi Reich if used on them or it won't defeat the German Reich. But an ongoing partially atomic strategic bombing campaign is not 2 and then done. Especially not when the OTL 2 were pretty much the prototype test technology. This technology in an ongoing context will be like pretty much all other military technologies that were introduced during teh war but before the war ended and saw wartime advances in development and deployment.

 

[thevaliant]

If we assume a victory scenario of:
(and is really the best possible German "victory" scenario)

1) Germany takes Moscow in 41 due to some extra German strength, better logistical planning, etc.
2) Due to 1, Leningrad falls to a winter 41-42 siege.
3) Due to 1 and 2, Germans take all of Stalingrad, Grozny, Tupase in 1942 and impede Persian lend lease, and cut Murmansk railway.
4) Due to 1,2,3 any Soviet counter offensive is impossible. The Germans once the Allies land at Torch, don't really have the strength to continue any further east ward just hold and exploit what they already have taken. The Soviet Union adopts a China style war, just nominally staying in the war until the Allies win it for them.
5) The Germans continue to occupy these Soviet regions even if losing in the west, because they need the resources, and Nazi ideology, and politics, etc.

Then the war ends in an allied victory, probably late in 45. Assume delayed DDay on June 6th 1945, followed by an Atomic bomb, a delayed Valkyrie kills Hitler September 45. War ends October with most of eastern Europe and lots of Soviet areas under German occupation. (Soviets never enter Pacific war)

Poland and Czechoslovakia governments in exile are flown in and established.

However Soviets will get Baltics, Kalingrad, Curzon line just the same as OTL, and occupation of Romania, and Hungary and southern Finland. Soviets suffered a lot, and the Allies have to promise a lot to keep the Soviets nominally in, Bulgaria gets a light British occupation. Northern Finland gets a light British occupation. German occupation zones as OTL, with Soviet right of transit across Poland rail and highways.

The Soviets a lot weaker OTL, and needing USA aid, don't do cold war as OTL, eastern Europe mostly independent. Can this peaceful future hold???

I like it, though I think the Soviet Union will get 1938 borders in the west of the country and be told to like it. Truman is the President in this TL and he'll not allow them an inch. In his mind giving them THAT much is probably too much.
In the east, I could see them losing the Kurile islands (or rather not getting), Sakhalin and losing all influence in Mongolia (which becomes either a KMT or PRC puppet in due course). No idea about Tannu Tuva.... maybe China or Mongolia grab it, or perhaps the Soviets do get it after all. This is despite nominally 'winning'.

Edit: Looks like others though the same as me. 1938 borders AT BEST. No way are they getting 1941 borders or any occupation zone.

 

[Catspoke]

I like it, though I think the Soviet Union will get 1938 borders in the west of the country and be told to like it. Truman is the President in this TL and he'll not allow them an inch. In his mind giving them THAT much is probably too much.
In the east, I could see them losing the Kurile islands (or rather not getting), Sakhalin and losing all influence in Mongolia (which becomes either a KMT or PRC puppet in due course). No idea about Tannu Tuva.... maybe China or Mongolia grab it, or perhaps the Soviets do get it after all. This is despite nominally 'winning'.

Edit: Looks like others though the same as me. 1938 borders AT BEST. No way are they getting 1941 borders or any occupation zone.

Maybe the Soviets get Curzon line, in exchange Poland gets all of east Prussia???

Yeah, A lot of that is butterflies. Is Stalin in charge? Is there a Tehran and Yalta conference? are the Soviets invited, Roosevelt is still around for those. What was the Soviet level of effort 42-45??

How do the Germans surrender here is unknown. If Hitler is assassinated in a Valkyrie thing, do the upstart Germans negotiate insisting on an Allied only occupation, are the Allies still talking "unconditional surrender" when faced with wining the war without much Soviet help??? (could the Germans demand some territorial guarantees)

China got Taiwan back and Tsingtao OTL , extra pre 1930 things, did she deserve it based on her level of effort?? (Certainly many Chinese died, as did Soviets).

The French got an occupation zone, did they deserve it, maybe less than the Soviets in this case.

If the USA and Britain are of the attitude this is our show, we won it, we paid the costs. I can see the Allies doing what is "fair". Not judging the German minor allies too harshly since they are minor countries without a whole lot of good choices. Insisting the Baltics be independent again etc...

 

[Flying Sorcerer]

Let's say that it's a fairly typical Axis Victory scenario, where the Soviet Union loses all of (or most of) its European territory to the Third Reich (as well as possibly the Far East to Japan if they decide to attack the USSR upon seeing the success of the Germans). Would the Soviet Union be able to survive such a crushing blow, or would the USSR have collapsed. I'm making an Axis Victory map that I may post to a maps and graphics thread, and Russia is obviously a very affected area by such a scenario, so I want it to be plausible and realistic.

Communism as a mobilizing ideology would have been completely discredited.

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

The luftwaffe the Soviets broke couldn't stop plane raids. A functional luftwaffe, with ground based support, and full resources, over friendly skies, is a different animal.

You think that the Luftwaffe, which couldn't defeat the RAF is going to prevail against the combined forces of the RAF and the USAAF?

And what if the Nazis start moving production into French, Dutch, Polish, etc., civilian areas?

Then they'll be moving production into areas where it will be easier for the SOE and OSS. Besides the western allies did bomb areas with allied civilians in OTL.

Or just out of allied plane range generally?

The logistics of moving sufficient numbers of people, resources, and equipment out of range of allied bombers while also maintaining fortifications strong enough to prevent an allied landing would make Sealion look plausible in comparison.

You're also way overestimating the power of atomic (as opposed to hydrogen) bombs.

On the contrary. There seems to be this myth that just won't die, that fission bombs were nothing more than fancy firecrackers. Even the primitive Fat Man and Little Boy were powerful enough to each destroy more than half of a city.

You also forget that the Japanese were literally going to fight with sticks and stones and that was after they'd already lost.

And that doesn't make them very different from the Nazis. The Germans already very slim chances of victory vanished the moment Hitler declared war on America.

 

[Doesntmatter]

American. Soviet. PUPPET. STATE.

 

[Capbeetle61]

Any potential Anglo-American invasion of an Axis-held Europe and Africa would have had to wait until nuclear weapons became available in August 1945.