Would the CSA have been viable economically over the long haul?

[1940LaSalle]

My contention is that as a nation, the CSA would not have been likely to prosper. Consider:

• The nation was largely agrarian at the time of the industrial revolution
• A non-negligible portion of the basis--slavery--was on the verge of ending legally worldwide or had already been abolished when the nation was founded (in OTL, I believe only Brazil had institutionalized slavery later)
• Several of the economic underpinnings were becoming obsolete (naval stores, since wood sailing ships were in decline) or alternative sources could be had fairly easily (e.g., cotton from Egypt or perhaps India)
• While there might well have been coal in some abundances in parts of VA and TN, I don't believe there was much at all in the way of exploitable mineral resources (e.g., iron ore) elsewhere, but I could be wrong. That would decidedly hinder industrial development and tilt the balance of trade unfavorably. It gets worse when copper becomes of interest after electricity becomes practical.

So...my contention is that by the late 1880s / early 1890s, the CSA is an economic hinterland--an economic client state, if you will--to the USA. Almost anything of an industrial nature has to come from either the USA or from Great Britain, paid for by an increasingly overburdened agriculture. I'd guess that by 1895 an economic crisis would be looming, and there would be rumblings, especially in the more advanced (a relative term!) states like VA that the idea of independence was not so hot an idea after all--and the corollary of reunification with the USA would necessarily be part of that.

The straw that breaks the camel's back: in the late 1890s, Cuba, just 90 miles from the Florida Keys, is in upheaval. That might seem to be a prime place for CSA expansion, but with the bank account nearly empty and no navy to speak of, Richmond is powerless to do anything. And when Washington is able to send the Maine from one of the well-outfitted Navy yards in, say, Philadelphia, Boston, or Brooklyn, the CSA can only grind its collective teeth in frustration that once again, the Yankees have trumped them.

That precipitates a crisis in Richmond; namely, if we can't even do anything about Cuba because we're so penurious, what does that say about our future? Tired of relative poverty, at least one of the states (guessing likely TN) severs its ties with the CSA and applies for readmission to the US. And then the dominoes start to topple, especially when the relatively well-to-do and well-educated upper economic classes of Richmond and New Orleans see where the future lies...

 

[MerryPrankster]

MEJ came up with a "no Confederate nostalgia" challenge and I suggested a failed Confederacy that came cap-in-hand to the USA would work--only my version had a lot more slave revolts and internal anarchy than yours.

Unfortunately, since this was a MEJ thread, it got derailed into a lot of nastiness.

 

[stevep]

1940LaSalle

I think slavery is the big problem, both in terms of the economic problems it causes and the fact it leaves the state virtually universally detested, at the same time as it has a larger and very likely hostile northern neighbour.

It's possible that the CSA can end slavery before that brings the nation down. Going to be a messy job whether it by virtual slavery via some sort of debt bondage or the expulsion of the black population. [Which might occur if you got the bulk of the population breaking the power of the planter aristocracy, which seems likely one way or another].

The other big thing in the south's potential favour, if it can get through to about 1900 is that one huge resource it has is oil. Could be an early version of the OTL gulf states, generally despised but felt too useful to reject totally.

Steve

 

[1940LaSalle]

1940LaSalle

I think slavery is the big problem, both in terms of the economic problems it causes and the fact it leaves the state virtually universally detested, at the same time as it has a larger and very likely hostile northern neighbour.

It's possible that the CSA can end slavery before that brings the nation down. Going to be a messy job whether it by virtual slavery via some sort of debt bondage or the expulsion of the black population. [Which might occur if you got the bulk of the population breaking the power of the planter aristocracy, which seems likely one way or another].

The other big thing in the south's potential favour, if it can get through to about 1900 is that one huge resource it has is oil. Could be an early version of the OTL gulf states, generally despised but felt too useful to reject totally.

Steve

Concerning oil: you raise a valid point about its usefulness as a commodity, but the CSA would have no technology to exploit it. And who does? Why, the despised Yankees, of course: consider oil well drilling was first made practical in PA in 1859. Further, the technology to refine it was developed in the industrialized states in OTL, and I see no reason why that wouldn't happen here also. Thus, what might at first seem to be the CSA's way out of economic vassalage (is that even a word?) just gets that sorry nation in deeper: the oil is pumped out by Yankees, sent north on the CSA's rickety railroads to northern refineries, the products are used primarily by Yankees with some modest amounts re-sold to the CSA at the usual markup prices.

That might send Texas into the "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" column. Texans are very practical.

 

[Johnrankins]

1940LaSalle

I think slavery is the big problem, both in terms of the economic problems it causes and the fact it leaves the state virtually universally detested, at the same time as it has a larger and very likely hostile northern neighbour.

It's possible that the CSA can end slavery before that brings the nation down. Going to be a messy job whether it by virtual slavery via some sort of debt bondage or the expulsion of the black population. [Which might occur if you got the bulk of the population breaking the power of the planter aristocracy, which seems likely one way or another].

The other big thing in the south's potential favour, if it can get through to about 1900 is that one huge resource it has is oil. Could be an early version of the OTL gulf states, generally despised but felt too useful to reject totally.

Steve

Expelled to where? Neither the US or Mexico is likely to be willing to take in large numbers of Blacks.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Expelled to where? Neither the US or Mexico is likely to be willing to take in large numbers of Blacks.

I wrote an AH.com: The Series episode featuring many being sent to Liberia.

Seriously, the Americo-Liberian elite might want a population boost, to ensure their control over the country.

 

[Johnrankins]

I wrote an AH.com: The Series episode featuring many being sent to Liberia.

Seriously, the Americo-Liberian elite might want a population boost, to ensure their control over the country.

With what money? Shipping them overseas would be VERY expensive.

 

[zoomar]

Nope, unless it had a successful revolution (either by slaves or yeoman whites).

The CSA was a society based on human slavery and plantation agriculture. Victory in the ACW would only strengthen these institutions and give strength to those who would want them preserved. It would not industrialize, not democratize, not expand, and only survive at all because the USA might be unwilling to readmit failed southern states to the union.

 

[Michael B]

Concerning oil: you raise a valid point about its usefulness as a commodity, but the CSA would have no technology to exploit it. And who does? Why, the despised Yankees, of course: consider oil well drilling was first made practical in PA in 1859. Further, the technology to refine it was developed in the industrialized states in OTL, and I see no reason why that wouldn't happen here also. Thus, what might at first seem to be the CSA's way out of economic vassalage (is that even a word?) just gets that sorry nation in deeper: the oil is pumped out by Yankees, sent north on the CSA's rickety railroads to northern refineries, the products are used primarily by Yankees with some modest amounts re-sold to the CSA at the usual markup prices.

Once the damn Yankees have the oil fields up and running there is little to stop the CSA nationalising them albeit at the risk of war. Mexico did so in 1938 and was able to run their oil company afterwards. I can't see the Rebs doing any worse.

 

[Intosh]

When oil become important, could simply Texas seceded from the CSA ?

 

[King Gorilla]

Once the damn Yankees have the oil fields up and running there is little to stop the CSA nationalising them albeit at the risk of war. Mexico did so in 1938 and was able to run their oil company afterwards. I can't see the Rebs doing any worse.

Its well and good to have the fields. However the real money in oil has always been in the oil services, oil machinery, oil transit, and oil refining. Without domestic sources of said things, the CSA will need to continue doing business with Standard Oil of Ohio.

 

[Grey Wolf]

The CSA as an agrarian state roughly equates with Brazil

By 1914 you might see the Rothschilds or Barings owning a good percentage of the infrastructure

Re oil, don't forget that a lot of it was in Oklahoma etc - which is kind of interesting if it had survived as some sort of Indian-majority territory until this date

Look at Brazil now, THAT is what the CSA has the potentiall to become IF it can survive the political and military challenges

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[1940LaSalle]

Once the damn Yankees have the oil fields up and running there is little to stop the CSA nationalising them albeit at the risk of war. Mexico did so in 1938 and was able to run their oil company afterwards. I can't see the Rebs doing any worse.

Don't know about that. By the time the oil industry in TX and LA is running, the Rebs are ever deeper in hock to Wall Street and perhaps to Threadneedle Street in London. Further, the ties between Washington and London are more important than those between Richmond and London. Thus, if the Rebs get obstreperous, Wall Street will (threaten to) foreclose, and tighten the economic screws sufficiently that the Rebs won't have squat to work with, and they'll knuckle under. Indeed, the possibility of TX saying "the hell with this" after oil is up and running seems reasonable; they'd grit their teeth and re-join the Union, figuring it's better to be creditors than debtors.

Not sure I buy the Brazil analogy advanced by others. Brazil is far larger and has more resources to draw on; the CSA is relatively resource-poor, apart from fuel sources and perhaps some minor ore deposits.

 

[67th Tigers]

When oil become important, could simply Texas seceded from the CSA ?

No, unlike the US Constitution the CS Constitution is a "permanent Union".

 

[Blackfox5]

As an agricultural resource based economy, it will have boom years of plenty followed by very bad years as commodity prices fall. Not having the means to industrialize will mean the CSA will never become a great power.

It will have immense social problems, and not just because of slavery. The Southern elite believed in an aristocratic republic where they would rule over not just black slaves but poor whites. It is hard to imagine, in the course of a CSA victory in the Civil War, that the war veterans will accept this. They will want political power and demand a greater say in how their government is run. They will resent any elites that managed to buy exemption from conscription. They will have allies among many of the generals who lead them, especially in the Army of Northern Virginia. The traditional elites will not be able to distract poor whites with racial demogoguery against free blacks. I easily see a new populist political party forming that quickly takes power in Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, and North Carolina, while a second aristocratic party clings to power in states like South Carolina. Politics could become ugly especially as the Confederate Constitution was created precisely to stop any form of real popular democracy.

The Confederates really hobbled themselves with a constitution that prevented internal improvements. The British and French will likely fund certain railroads and other infrastructure in order to get cheaper access to Confederate natural resources. The oil in Texas and Louisiana may be controlled by Anglo-Dutch Shell and not Standard Oil. But the British and French will not be interested in projects that don't benefit them directly. Also, they may be able to deal directly with the states and avoid the national government. So oil wealth may remain in Texas and Louisiana and never be shared.

This all points to a lot of competing economic and political interests in the Confederacy. There's probably a group of army veterans with vision who can see the nation falling apart and have direct experience of the hardships on the troops of a weak central government, and they may form the basis of a Hamilton like Federalist party. Of course, that's exactly what the Southern aristocrats want to avoid, and I can see them fighting it.

Depending on how bad things get, the CSA survives but limps along; has its own civil disturbances that lead to civil war; or breaks up with some states rejoining the Union.

 

[67th Tigers]

Don't know about that. By the time the oil industry in TX and LA is running, the Rebs are ever deeper in hock to Wall Street and perhaps to Threadneedle Street in London.

Understand that the CSA produced about half the wealth of the old USA, and almost all of the exports were from the southern states. The CS is very, very solvent and rich, and is likely to grow industrially faster than the US. Especially since they're willing to form state (i.e. central government) owned companies.

 

[Johnrankins]

Understand that the CSA produced about half the wealth of the old USA, and almost all of the exports were from the southern states. The CS is very, very solvent and rich, and is likely to grow industrially faster than the US. Especially since they're willing to form state (i.e. central government) owned companies.

What drugs are you on? The state of New York produced more goods and services than the entire Old Confederacy.

 

[Grey Wolf]

I cannot see a victorious (as in surviving after an ACW) CSA being in hock to the Union

Britain and France, or perhaps rather than the states their banking houses and their large industrial concerns are most likely

And being crap in the 1870s-1880s does not equate with permanent crappiness. Things change and oil, even if the wells are owned by foreign companies, will bring wealth to areas of the Confederacy - the support industries, the logistics, the support for the workers (brothels, diners, clothing stores, taverns etc)

There is no reason to doom a second class state because it can't break out of that class in the first 20-30 years

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[anon_user]

For an alternate comparison of Southern and Northern industry, look at sewing machines. In 1861, there were 74 plants that produced sewing machines; every one of those was in the North. The North had about 100000 sewing machines in 1861; the South had about 3000. Sewing machines allowed for faster, cheaper assembly of uniforms.

As a result, if you look at archived uniforms, the following dichotomy presents itself - of 303 Southern uniforms, just 6 were machine-sewn, while 66 of 172 Union uniforms were machine-sewn. That's a bit of an underestimate, actually, because Union uniforms archived in the Smithsonian came from a company that chose to not use sewing machines - about 36% of all other archived Union uniforms were machine-sewn.
***
An independent, surviving CSA is going to face the same issues as Latin American states. It's dependent on agriculture, but that makes it that much more subject to boom-and-bust cycles, and means a minimally-developed internal market. Domestic industry will develop, to an extent, but slowly - think of Argentina as a possible point of comparison.

 

[Sovereign12]

Even if the CSA gets full control of this oil's revenue, by the 1930 TTL will have its own Dust Bowl occur. The causes are still here, so it is only a matter of when it will hit. The hardest hit states in OTL were Oklahoma and Texas (although all of the mid-west was affected).

The migration to the western US was huge in OTL, but in TTL I can see many affected in the CSA heading east. US citizens would still move westward. Now I could see the black people of the CSA mostly moving to the western US if they don't have some form of citizenship in the CSA by this time.

Now even with the Dust Bowl of TL, I could still see the US government instituting similar policies on soil conservation. The CSA on the other hand I think will be hit much to hard in there westen half to really do anything about it.

Now overall, I'm not sure if there would be a Depression to compound the chaos of the Dust Bowl for TTL, considering the economics of the various nations will be different by this point. So, things could be mildly easier on those effected by the loss of their farms.