Thomas1195
Banned
How about someone else other than Chiang was picked by Dr. Sun to run the Whampoa military academy? This was basically Chiang's base to rise to power.
Or, have Chiang somehow goes to West Point instead of Russia.
Would KMT China become a bigger super power than CCP China is today?
- Thread starter sirjackalot
- Start date
Or, have Chiang somehow goes to West Point instead of Russia.
Perhaps, in both cases; I'm not that terribly well-versed in Chinese history to know who would plausibly replace Jiang in running the Whampoa academy.
I think questions like this are going to hinge on exactly how the KMT wins. Saying things like "the CCP is defeated" or "warlordism is brought to heel" glosses over what would be central problems for the KMT and would determine the contours of how they govern and the mistakes they make and crimes they would commit. Yes, KMT China might resemble modern South Korea eventually but on the way there they might resemble the same South Korea where the president is shot in the face by the head of his own intelligence service during a dinner party, or where democracy movements are accompanied by week long urban gun battles against students. Given the scale of the administrative problems they face and the much lower floor they're starting from in term of human development, would they really do "better" than the CCP?
We tend to focus on the absence of Great Leap Forward famine deaths and the absence of the Cultural Revolution's administrative chaos under the KMT. In a best case scenario, okay- those were singular ideologically driven events that the KMT wouldn't embark on.
But what would they embark on? Say they do try to blaze a trail of becoming an Asian Tiger early? There's never been a crash industrialization program- under any ideology- that didn't involve peasant displacement and immiseration. If the KMT wins but provincial governors are brought-to-heel warlords itching to reassert themselves there could be a 1960's or 70's where streams of poor rural migrants displaced by more capital-intensive agriculture (thanks USAID!) pour into overcrowded cities in search of work, possibly motivated by sporadic famines (which are, after all a market phenomenon) in search of jobs in the new factories. The major coastal cities, creaking under the strain, would be run by the last generation of KMT warlo- uuh, governors who would be facing all this on the cusp of a political crisis as Chiang Kai-shek nears the end of his life and the knives come out in terms of succession. Unequal growth, crisis of political legitimacy, mass migration.....that doesn't look like a great situation. Even less of one when the governor of Yunnan's state police get into an armed confrontation with the local army corps over jurisdictional issues we all know are cover for a dispute about heroin trafficking profits.
There's also a neglect of the good the CCP did do in terms of stabilizing daily life. After the chaos of the Mao era, the implementation of the "Iron Rice Bowl" - a commitment to lifelong employment, but also food security, did provide an unheard-of level of stability in people's lives. Food security and stability do a lot to reduce excess deaths. I also can't imagine a KMT public health system that is performing especially well in the 50's and early 60's, and let's remember how many pandemic diseases have originated from southern China.
One last thing, too- I think for the purposes of this thread we're all assuming a KMT victory means "defeat of the PLA in the field and the deaths of Mao and his inner circle"- do we think that would make the CCP quit? I don't think a large, nationwide, resilient guerrilla movement that hasn't had it's underlying grievances addressed would simply go away.
Imagine a 1965, it's a train station in a major Chinese city. The police are combing the arrivals platform shaking down the scarecrow-thin rural migrants for bribes, always on the lookout for communist infiltrators or even illegal internal immigrants who have clung to the railcar bogies to try to slip into the city to find work. The peasants are pushed towards the internal passport checkpoint, under huge smiling posters of the local governor- the portrait of Chaing Kai-Shek is an afterthought- where they will be assessed for suitability for work (the fixer back in the village has arranged this) before being allowed entry. The shriek of MAP-funded Super Sabres cuts over the din of the station. They always fly low over the city on their return from bombing runs in the mountains, where the reds still pick off patrols and assassinate local landlords. As the sound of the American-made jets fade, the chants of the student protesters and labor unions rises over the hubbub of the station. This isn't a welcoming committee, though- the crowd wields protest signs like clubs, some in the back holding big character posters shouting NO SCABS or KEEP MOVING NO WORK HERE. The police laze about- if these were red-affiliated unions they would break out their shotguns and tear gas but as for now....they would let things play out.
I guess as I think this through, I don't see a KMT-run China looking like a big South Korea. I see it looking like a big South Vietnam.
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Life in a KMT-led China would have been considerably worse than in OTL's China. Yes, the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution were horrible humanitarian disasters, but the CCP did so many incredibly good things for the chinese people that the KMT couldn't and wouldn't have done.
To quote from "Impact of the Rural Reform on Financing - Rural Health Services in China" by
Mary Young (specialist in global health and child development at the World Bank):
"After the liberation, during the period from 1950 to 1980, the health status of the Chinese people has improved remarkably. Public health measures, combined with a reduction in malnutrition and improved water supplies and
sanitation, have reduced the infant mortality rate from 250 per 1000 live births in 1950 to less than 50 in 1980. Life expectancy increased from 35 in 1949 to almost 70 in 1980 (1). Indeed, the achievement of accessible primary
health care for virtually all people in a country with a per capita income as low as $290 (1980) is unique in the world (2)."
The massive increase in life expectancy and the rapid decline of infant mortality were a direct result of the CCP's "Patriotic Health Campaigns" (including the institutionalization of the famous barefoot doctors, large-scale midwifery training, campaigns against malnutrition and the implementation of the iron rice bowl, massive improvement of the water supply, and immunization promotion). These campaigns would not have been possible without the CCP's land reforms and anti-illiteracy efforts (which themselves would not have been possible without the jiǎntǐzì).
The "Patriotic Health Campaigns" safed the lives of dozens (if not hundreds) of millions of chinese people. Just think about it: Within 30 years, infant mortality decreased fivefold. When the CCP took power in 1949, the population of China was 542 million. When Mao died in 1976 the population had allmost doubled, reaching 930 million.
Per capita GDP (PPP) increased sixfold between 1950 and 1980, despite the fact that the population in the same timeframe doubled. With the exception of the Great Leap Forward, the CCP's economic pollicies were extremely successfull (which was the main reason why an incredibly overoptimistic campaign like the Great Leap Forward was attempted in the first place. The party suffered from the "dizzy with success" syndrome).
Now, a more competent CCP leadership could have definetly attained these archievements without the disasters of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. However the KMT couldn't.
After WW2 the ROC suffered from massive hyperinflation, uncontrollable organized crime, widespread destruction following WW2, rampant malnutrition and diseases, a massive inflow of american capital and goods that bankrupted chinese corporations, a huge wealth disparity, and heavy pollitical instability (both within and outside of the KMT). The future doesn't look too rosy for China had this state of affairs continued. It'd be a much poorer and less populous country (there wouldn't be a need for a "One Child Pollicy", because, as a result of increased infant mortality, there would be less people to begin with).
Overall it'd be comparable to India, yet more unstable and heavily dependent on the US economically (at least for the time beeing).
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marathag
Banned
Easier to 'stabilize' life after killing 60 million citizens from the 'Great Leap Forward' and other programs and terrorizing the remainder with Red Guards
marathag
Banned
South Korea went from 19M in 1950 to 38M in 1980 . Real per capita GDP went from $850 to $4000 over the same period, that's more than a quadrupling
I made a stupid mistake, confusing dates. Chinas GDP per capita (in US Dollar) grew from 54 USD in 1952 to 312 USD in 1980. Thats a sixfold increase in GDP per capita over the course of 28 years
Anyway, South Korea can't be compared to a survivin ROC. South Korea is a small nation that received massive developement aid from the United States. China is massive and even if there was large-scale american aid, it wouldn't have nearly the same impact. Furthermore, rapid growth only began in South Korea after the implementation of large-scale economic planning by the state.
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During the war he had several American trained and equipped division like the X force equipment included sherman tanks ~500. These are tactical matters what lost him the war was strategic errors. For those interested in how the NRA fought there is a youtuber called ROCBOSS who has covered some of the battles.
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I'd actually argue that stabilizing daily life after the Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward was made significantly more difficult by those events.
Alexniko is spot-on with this, and I think my post only glossed over this dynamic- public health would be the one area where the CCP would most clearly come ahead of the KMT. Be it Cuba, China, or Iran, revolutionary governments actually have pretty solid track records when it comes to rural/preventative health care (and also literacy campaigns for that matter).
I think it is easy to point to the Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward as catastrophes (which I mean- would you want to live through them? I wouldn't!) but especially as catastrophes fundamentally connected to the nature of the CCPs government, and then assume that there wouldn't be any disasters fundamentally connected to the nature of the KMT's government. A commitment to maintaining rural landlordism, systems of patronage and corruption internally, and a willingness to, in times of crisis, pull scams like the silver yuan certificates on their own people would cause huge amounts of human suffering. While I don't see singular huge ideological disruptions like the Cultural Revolution in the cards for the KMT, I do think they have a shallower commitment to a broader number of polices that would harm the people ruled by them.
Like we all just saw in Beirut, corruption and negligence over a long enough period of time can result in catastrophe just as surely as ideological fanaticism. I would imagine that KMT China would be host to several Bophal-level industrial disasters during it's period of industralization.
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marathag
Banned
But there would be changes, a KMT is a bulwark against the USSR.
OTL Japan was built up after the War, this TL it would remain the backwater it was till 1950 and the need to support the 'police action' in Korea.
That development will be in West and Northern China
Alternatively, the USSR will use the KMT ROC as a bulwark against the U.S.
Cuirassier
Banned
South Korean development isn't made on the back of US aid. Not a single post 1945 developmental state has managed to lift itself up on the back of developmental aid.
Why would ROC be a Soviet "bulwark" against the US ? The Chinese could refuse to commit to either of the two sides but your scenario is highly unlikely to exist.
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marathag
Banned
Anyone who even seemed to deviate from the Party Line was either executed or re-educated for two generations.
The Tall Poppy gets cut.
By 1976, nobody wanted to be that flower. Operant Conditioning/Learned behavior whatever you call it, made a deep impact.
If Peanut is running the KMT, he remembers the USSR cutting aid just as Japan got really rolling in China, replaced and then surpassed by US aid.
note that the two aren't mutually exclusive
Economically I think it modernizes sooner, but I think it plateaus around where the PRC is now. It's called the middle income trap for a reason.
Militarily I think its navy would be stronger as a consequence of getting it's economic act together sooner, and the KMT's desire to show off to the world that China is a serious actor on the global stage. The airforce is probably about as strong but with a more advanced domestic industry (the nationalists were tinkering with domestic fighter plane design and production during WWII, and no period of isolation would do wonders for China's engine making capabilities), and the army is probably weaker, having had funds siphoned off to the navy and airforce, but probably has greater expeditionary capabilities.
Possibly, but the PRC had the advantage of a long period of isolation and an ideology that inspired intense devotion.
Probably around the same. It's worth noting that millions of people were born in spite of the one child policy.
Honestly I could see it being an inverse PRC. In the aftermath of the Civil War China stands by the US against all communism in Asia. China's not going to want to play second fiddle, especially in asian affairs, leading to tensions with the USA that eventually lead to it reviving its historical partnership of convenience with the Soviets.
If the KMT win, the US will back them to take over all the foreign concessions, including Hong Kong. The British flag will be down in the early 50's, nothing they can do about it.
So the U.S. will push Britain and Portugal to return Hong Kong and Macau earlier?