Would a china that had undergone a successful Meiji like reform in the mid to late 19thC have been a major or even superpower by the 1930s?
- Thread starter Malone
- Start date
Well... If China is modernised enough to pose a threat to BOTH the Russian Far East and French Indochina, Germany may evaluate the worth of overcoming Wilhem's anti-Asian racism in order to get a valuable strategic ally. Also, such China would also be a rival to Japan, and Japan may be in the position to threaten German Pacific colonies (though I think that the simple existence of a strong China allied to Germany would be enough for Japan not to dare joining the war unless they feel this is their best chance for protection).
Japan had little in the way of domestic sources of fossil fuel and managed quite fine anyway.
China has certainly more of the stuff available, though I am not sure of how accessible.
China does not need to replicate the Meiji crash modernization to be formidable by the thirties. "Pulling a Tanzimat" would be sufficient, if they can keep the Empire together while doing so (hard, I now, but arguably not impossible).
Mr. House
Banned
The reason I bring it up is because China had a rough relationship with the outside world during that time period so the need for imports of energy or maybe foreign direct investment/human capital needs to be taken into account.
China could have modernized but in no way as fast as Meiji did. It would be slow reform. Like perhaps 1840 - 1870 laying the groundwork, then 1870 -1900 increasing it to second tier European great power level. Pulling a Meiji doesn't work in China, because China doesn't have the ability to modernize so fast. Unlike the Japanese who could afford civil wars to shove it's modernization up the reactionaries throats, the Chinese couldn't either, mostly due to the fact that all recent civil wars in China had claimed millions of lives, and that kind of idea would have been shot down immediately. China needed slow and gradual reform.
That's my grip with '100 days reform' tls. They largely ignore the entire economical and societal factors at play and Walla, after 10 years a modernized and westernised Qing. No it doesn't work like that, and don't ignore all those aforementioned factors.
What China really needed was slow and gradual reform in a slow and steady manner appeasing both the reactionaries and reformers.
That's my grip with '100 days reform' tls. They largely ignore the entire economical and societal factors at play and Walla, after 10 years a modernized and westernised Qing. No it doesn't work like that, and don't ignore all those aforementioned factors.
What China really needed was slow and gradual reform in a slow and steady manner appeasing both the reactionaries and reformers.
McPherson
Banned
Based on Billy the Second's imbecilic behavior with the Americans during the Spanish American War and how close he came to having himself a nasty war over it, I would say that a capable China would produce about the same hostile result. NTG.
I think they'd be able to import whatever they need if they manage to get the cash to pay for it: an initial obstacle for sure (lack of domestic capital initiated the catastrophic debt spirals that essentially suffocated the early modernisation in both Egypt and the Ottoman Empire proper) but if they manage some industrialisation, they'd have the required liquidity after some time. China's immense internal market may be helpful for this.
McPherson
Banned
NTG=Not too Good. I could have written NTB (Not Too Bright) which would fit Kaiser Bill and his idiot admiral von Deiderichs. Try to pull the same stunt at Manila that he pulled at Kiautschou Bay ? Those two yahoos set back German-Chinese relations about twenty five years.
Opportunistic co-travellers is all you really need for an alliance of convenience. The Ottomans weren't exactly good European Christians either. I think that a strong China would probably have allied with Germany because its main geopolitical potential threats/ opportunities were Russia and France (Indochina). Wilhelm II might well have been an asshole but he wasn't an asshole threatening or potentially threatening Mongolia, Manchuria or Yunan.
He wasn't entirely stupid and could read a map. Besides, China does have a certain cultural and historical comprehension of the concept of idiot Emperors.
McPherson
Banned
He wanted to play in Manchuria, but better players elbowed him out.
Some people could plainly read a map better than he could (Japan is an example.). As for stupid, it is hard to determine among the three WWI morons leading great powers, who was stupidest and most worthless; Woodrow Wilson, Wilhelm II or Nicholas II.
I rank them:
1. Nicholas II
2. Woodrow Wilson
3. Wilhelm II
but in the race to be the stupidest and most worthless, it can be argued that Woodrow and Wilhelm could easily change places. MOO. YMMV and it should. I think Nicky the Nut has a lock on the number 1 spot.
Yeah. 100 days reforms gets you a Qing superpower by 1980 and a china that's anywhere from close to ours in GDP to double if you're optimistic not "modernized in 10 years".