That aside....most TLs are Confederate-Winning for a simple reason. There are three possible ATLs for the Civil War: the South wins, the North wins earlier than OTL, or the North wins later than OTL. It is certainly possible to create an interesting TL falling into one of the latter two categories. However, psychologically, it does not seem to be as "great" a TL as those in the first category, because the overall alteration from OTL is not as great, no matter how in-depth and well laid out the TL is. This leaves aside current-day NeoConfederate political issues.
The end result is a huge number of Southern Victory TLs. We first sift through those that are horribly written, those which are not well-researched, and those which are at least competent in these two requirements but are Uber-Wanks. Perhaps 50% of what is left, at least, has a BP with S.O.191, some others with Perryville, many with Gettysburg, a few with Vicksburg. For a person who is a good author and is willing to do research, but is not at the top-tier of knowledge about the Civil War, these BPs are the obvious BPs. That they are obvious does not mean that they are bad - simply that they are overdone. But as more and more of them are written, the challenge of keeping them original becomes ever-more insurmountable.
So this leaves us with a tiny handful of TLs, still usually Southern Victory, which are well-written, well-researched, not inherently a Wank, and do not have one of the above as their BP.
Once these TLs are published, if they are not ignored, then they are almost always referred to as "near-ASB". Clearly some on this board do not believe me, so I shall give an example.
August 1863: Bragg is wounded. Army politics and ability limit Davis' choice of replacement - very half-heartedly he sends Lee west to command the AoT. Chickamauga is an amazing Confederate victory with 20,000 US casualties and 15,000 prisoners including Sheridan. Lee follows up, besieges Chattanooga, sends a relieving force to Knoxville 3x OTL size, crushes Burnside, comes back in time to take another 15,000 US prisoners including Sherman, then cuts Grant's supply line, forces him all the way back to Nashville and almost captures his whole army. In Spring 1864 Lee faces Thomas in Virginia in a campaign of maneuver ending up with Thomas in front of Richmond and Petersburg but no luckier than OTL about breaking in, and with Lee's army larger, healthier, with Ewell long gone, Early, Gordon, and Mahone promoted, and Hood an active division commander. In the west Grant faces Johnston from Nashville - Johnston in turn has gotten rid of Polk, and has Hardee, Stewart, and Cheatham as corps commanders (so much better than OTL) - and after 6 months is finally forced back to, but not out of, Chattanooga in a campaign of maneuver. Lincoln loses the election to (insert Democrat here), and by Inauguration day the Confederates still hold Richmond, Atlanta, and everything in between - and so they make a negotiated peace.
You see? That sounds very much like ASB territory to me, with the Confederates having that string of luck. If, on the other hand, I went to ten pages explaining all of the details of this TL, it would show how the Confederates, while lucky, were certainly not ASB - how every individual event in there is extremely plausible and follows naturally from those before.
On the other hand, how often is minutiae debated in a thread? Minutiae is precisely what would have to be debated to declare this TL ASB or not-ASB. However almost all board-wide criticism is about the bigger picture, which looks very much like ASB, even if it's not.
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Wow, that was long. So anyway, Leper of Outremer, I am very sorry that I have no good answer. Look in the archives for those TLs that read well and are plausible but are not commented on much, and revive them. Or post your own for every single tiny BP that you can think of. I mean that seriously.