Wilhelm I, Bismarck, and Moltke killed at Königgrätz?

[Old1812]

I'm unable to find a source for this at the moment, but apparently, King Wilhelm I of Prussia, Otto von Bismarck, and Helmuth von Moltke were standing on a hilltop as they observed the battle at Königgrätz. When they discovered their position was in range of Austrian artillery as shells began falling around them, they remembered their importance and quickly left.

But what if a lucky Austrian shot manages to kill all three? How will the NDB manage without the Prussian head of state, the architect of their policy, and the architect of the Prussian army? Are the Austrians able to pull out a victory at Königgrätz, and perhaps even the war?

 

[Heldenhammer]

I view them as the key to a unified Germany. Without them, the course of modern history would've changed dramatically. I would expect Austria to collapse faster without the help of Germany, and the German city states being gobbled up by France and neighboring powers or united under AH in some League.

 

[raharris1973]

I would expect Austria to collapse faster without the help of Germany, and the German city states being gobbled up by France and neighboring powers or united under AH in some League.

Well that sure is a broad range of diametrically opposed potential outcomes!

 

[raharris1973]

I'm unable to find a source for this at the moment, but apparently, King Wilhelm I of Prussia, Otto von Bismarck, and Helmuth von Moltke were standing on a hilltop as they observed the battle at Königgrätz. When they discovered their position was in range of Austrian artillery as shells began falling around them, they remembered their importance and quickly left.

But what if a lucky Austrian shot manages to kill all three? How will the NDB manage without the Prussian head of state, the architect of their policy, and the architect of the Prussian army? Are the Austrians able to pull out a victory at Königgrätz, and perhaps even the war?

What does the OP expect to happen? Who were the next royals, politicians, and generals in the line of succession on the Prussian side? How prone to panic versus professionalism would they be? How far apart were they from each other physically. If they were with Moltke/Wilhelm/Bismark they could be killed too, if they are several days ride from each other cooperation could be diffcult, if they are no more than an hour or two's ride from each other and can assemble to parley and decide on what to do next, the Prussians can do OK.

 

[Mikestone8]

I view them as the key to a unified Germany. Without them, the course of modern history would've changed dramatically. I would expect Austria to collapse faster without the help of Germany, and the German city states being gobbled up by France and neighboring powers or united under AH in some League.

Why exactly? Assuming the Prussians still win the battle, Frederick III's peace terms probably won't be much different from Bismarck's, so there's still a North German Confederation, which probably goes on to acquire the southern states. Indeed, a Prussia ruled by the more liberal Frederick is probably more appealing to Bavaria et al. Big question is whether France will allow this to happen w/o a fight. If not, the very little has changed from OTL.

irc, Frederick, as Crown Prince approved of the alliance with Austria-Hungary.

 

[raharris1973]

Why exactly? Assuming the Prussians still win the battle, Frederick III's peace terms probably won't be much different from Bismarck's, so there's still a North German Confederation, which probably goes on to acquire the southern states. Indeed, a Prussia ruled by the more liberal Frederick is probably more appealing to Bavaria et al. Big question is whether France will allow this to happen w/o a fight. If not, the very little has changed from OTL.

irc, Frederick, as Crown Prince approved of the alliance with Austria-Hungary.

It is fair to characterize Bavaria in the 1860s as a more liberal states than Prussia?

 

[Prince de Pringondani]

With those 3 killed at one stroke would'n the Prussian Army collaps just a case of Panic?

 

[Mikestone8]

With those 3 killed at one stroke would'n the Prussian Army collaps just a case of Panic?

Unlikely. It would be a shock, but someone (Probably Prince Frederick Charles initially, and the Crown Prince when he arrived would have taken command.

 

[Janprimus]

Unlikely. It would be a shock, but someone (Probably Prince Frederick Charles initially, and the Crown Prince when he arrived would have taken command.

Even then the Prussian was professional enough to fight a battle without the High Command. Still even if the Austrian Empire would win, the only territorial loss I could see for Prussia, would not be massive. Perhaps Schleswig-Holstein is made into an grandduchy under the house of Schleswig-Holstein-Sonderburg-Augustenburg. Saxony would want to regain the territories lost in 1815 and Austria would still desire Silesia, both very ambitious and would require a humbling defeat of Prussia. IMHO the Austrian Empire and the kingdom of Saxony could win the war with Prussia, but not in such a decisive way.

 

[Prince de Pringondani]

Would other European Counties intervene if Austria and Saxony won in a dcisive way and came with a humiliating Treeaty not only former territories of Saxony Silesia but also Rheinprovinz and Westfalia are lost

 

[Mikestone8]

Would other European Counties intervene if Austria and Saxony won in a dcisive way and came with a humiliating Treeaty not only former territories of Saxony Silesia but also Rheinprovinz and Westfalia are lost

Conceivable but doubtful. The Tsar wouldn't want Prussia to be crushed, but if he intervenes he risks France coming in on the other side, so as long as the Polish provinces are left alone he probably stays neutral. France of course is eager to see Prussia removed from the Rhine, so if she intervenes at all it will be on Austria's side.

 

[Vanity 6]

Prussia could still win and the peace with Austria would be the same. Perhaps Hanover survives though as its extinction was rather harsh and I think specific to Bismarck. Doubtful the Franco-Prussian War happens. The Southern states gravitate to Prussia over time and in varying degrees with Bavaria being the holdout.

Of course Austria could also eke out a victory in the confusion. But any Austrian victory is not going to be decisive. The best they will get (and I think that would be enough) is the Duchies under Augustenburg and a restoration of the Confederation. Maybe in a few years a reform along the lines of the 1863 proposals is successful.

 

[BigBlueBox]

Conceivable but doubtful. The Tsar wouldn't want Prussia to be crushed, but if he intervenes he risks France coming in on the other side, so as long as the Polish provinces are left alone he probably stays neutral. France of course is eager to see Prussia removed from the Rhine, so if she intervenes at all it will be on Austria's side.

France wouldn't be happy about an Austrian Rhineland either. Napoleon III would either demand (part of) the Rhineland to be given to France, the Rhineland to become independent and under French influence, or a concession somewhere else like Luxembourg. Whether or not he gets his demands or is willing to go to war for them is another story.

 

[M79]

Biggest effects are not on Germany but France. There is already an impetus towards a German Federation and Frederick III might be savvy enough to make it happen. He is also likely to leave a lighter peace in place and allow states to come in under a more liberal Prussia as a genuine confederation instead of a Prussia-dominated Empire.

France, however, remains a monarchy but one still thristy for revenge after Koniggratz. Luxembourg and perhaps parts of Belgium likely become French and Frederick's reluctance to pursue military adventures may result in a very different late 19th and early 20th century, including a World War I potentially led by a monarchist France or butterflied away altogether.

 

[Mikestone8]

France wouldn't be happy about an Austrian Rhineland either. Napoleon III would either demand (part of) the Rhineland to be given to France, the Rhineland to become independent and under French influence, or a concession somewhere else like Luxembourg. Whether or not he gets his demands or is willing to go to war for them is another story.

Afaik Austria never planned to annex the Rhineland - only Silesia (in return she would give up Venice). It would be independent, though parts of it possibly ruled by the deposed Grand Dukes of Tuscany and Modena, which would leave the Habsburgs with the same number of subjects as they had before the 1859 war. According to AJP Taylor it was proposed that a new state on the Rhine be "neutralised" in the same way Belgium was.