WI Zwingli Lives

[John Fredrick Parker]

What if Huldrych Zwingli isn't killed at the Battle of Kappel in October 1531? Say he dies 1546 or after.

How is the Protestant Reformation affected? For example, is this likely to curb John Calvin's career? What about England, or the Huguenots? And how is history thus changed?

 

[Jürgen]

I don't think it would do much to Calvin's career except maybe make him more successful, I think the main difference may be that the Reformed may do better in South Germany, especially in Swabia and other areas where Allemannic German was spoken. Maybe it could also make it into Bavaria and Tyrol, which was the strongest Catholic bastions in German speaking areas left in the decades after the Reformation. If Bavaria becomes Reformed, we will likely see Württemberg choose to go that way too instead of becoming Lutheran (it only choose to become Lutheran to keep the Protestants united). This will also destroy the Counter-Reformation in the short term, and we likely see many Prince-Bishops becoming Protestant. The effect of this will de facto be that the Prince-Bishoprics becomes elective principalities.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Would Calvin still be as successful if he did not manage to become de facto dictator of Geneva in the 1540's? And couldn't Zwingli surviving butterfly that much?

The idea of a nixed Counter-Reformation is very intriguing, though I'm not sure how it follows.

 

[Jürgen]

Would Calvin still be as successful if he did not manage to become de facto dictator of Geneva in the 1540's? And couldn't Zwingli surviving butterfly that much?

The idea of a nixed Counter-Reformation is very intriguing, though I'm not sure how it follows.

The Bavarian dukes was a important factor in the Counter Reformation, with them becoming Reformed. The Counter Reformation will be much weaker in Germany, and the Catholic Church will have a harder time develop effective strategies against Protestant thoughts. They will still develop it, but if they do so 20 years later, it may cost them even more of Germany and maybe even Poland.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

If the Catholics lose this much of Germany, could the "Holy" Roman Empire even remain Catholic? If not, that will have massive effects on European history.

Protestant Poland is also interesting to imagine. By the latter 16th Century, Catholicism in Europe may be reduced to France, Italy, and Spain, with France being potentially less than a sure thing.

 

[Jürgen]

If the Catholics lose this much of Germany, could the "Holy" Roman Empire even remain Catholic? If not, that will have massive effects on European history.

Protestant Poland is also interesting to imagine. By the latter 16th Century, Catholicism in Europe may be reduced to France, Italy, and Spain, with France being potentially less than a sure thing.

The interesting aspect are if Ferdinand are forced to convert to get the imperial crown. Will Philip II go to war over it, or will he simply see that as unrealistic? We may see the Pope set up Philip II as anti-Emperor or maybe Ferdinand simply becomes king of Germany, with Philip II as Holy Roman Emperor (a empire which no longer includes Germany).

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

The interesting aspect are if Ferdinand are forced to convert to get the imperial crown... We may see the Pope set up Philip II as anti-Emperor or maybe Ferdinand simply becomes king of Germany, with Philip II as Holy Roman Emperor (a empire which no longer includes Germany).

Ooh, I like this idea; that would probably push France further from the Pope, even if their rulers remain partial to "Catholic" customs, complicated by a growing Reformist population, a la England. At this point, the Counter Reformation is just fucked, unless they want the "true" church to be nothing more than an extension of Spanish power.

 

[Jürgen]

Ooh, I like this idea; that would probably push France further from the Pope, even if their rulers remain partial to "Catholic" customs, complicated by a growing Reformist population, a la England. At this point, the Counter Reformation is just fucked, unless they want the "true" church to be nothing more than an extension of Spanish power.

We will likely see Portugal, Spain, Italy, Lorraine and the Burgundian Inheritance (the latter two making up the rump HRE) stay true to the Pope. The French can go many way, but I don't see a semi-independent Gallican Church, which includes both a High and a Low Church.

 

[Jürgen]

The Burgundian Inheritence is the Lowlands?

... and Franche-Comté, Italy would likely also "stay" in this rump HRE.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I would think the Lowlands, considering their middle class presence and otl history, would still be susceptible to Protestantism TTL, so not sure how psyched they'd be to keep following Spain.

 

[Jürgen]

I would think the Lowlands, considering their middle class presence and otl history, would still be susceptible to Protestantism TTL, so not sure how psyched they'd be to keep following Spain.

Well that's one more problem 10 years down the road, unless Philip II learn something from the loss of Germany and decides to not to piss off the Dutch. I doubt he will learn anything, but never say never.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Would a "Catholicism" dominated so strongly by Phillip II actually be viable long term? Especially if there's no Council of Trent equivalent prior to him becoming anti-Emperor and doing his thing? Or would hopes of a "Counter-Reformation" be nixed in favor of full reconciliation with the Protestants?

 

[Monter]

Bavaria had already taken a staunch anti-Protestant position already in the 1520s-30s, also as a tool to oppose their Palatine cousins, why would Zwingli survival change one of the Wittelbachs' core policies, not saying that it's impossible, but this kind of stuff needs a reason.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I think the main difference may be that the Reformed may do better in South Germany, especially in Swabia and other areas where Allemannic German was spoken. Maybe it could also make it into Bavaria and Tyrol, which was the strongest Catholic bastions in German speaking areas left in the decades after the Reformation. If Bavaria becomes Reformed, we will likely see Württemberg choose to go that way too instead of becoming Lutheran (it only choose to become Lutheran to keep the Protestants united).

Bavaria had already taken a staunch anti-Protestant position already in the 1520s-30s, also as a tool to oppose their Palatine cousins, why would Zwingli survival change one of the Wittelbachs' core policies, not saying that it's impossible, but this kind of stuff needs a reason.

Yeah, we may have gotten ahead of ourselves here. Swabia going Protestant makes perfect sense, but we may need to establish how Bavaria and/or Tyrol follow.