WI: York Dynasty in Portugal?

[FitzEmperor]

Hi it's my first time posting but I've been a lurker on here for a while. I'm working on a Richard III timeline where he marries Joanna of Portugal, and she dies in childbirth delivering a surviving daughter in 1486. In my timeline, Richard remarries to an English nobleman and has a son that is betrothed to Catherine of Aragon. As OTL, Joanna's brother John II dies in 1495 without an heir leaving King Rich and Joanna's child as heir to the Aviz throne. Definitely the Portuguese would not be willing to allow a foreign monarch rule their country, especially a female, therefore placing Manuel the Duke of Beja as king AOTL. However, it is likely that Richard would probably unsuccessfully, push his daughter's claim to the throne, leading to a War of Succession.

1. Who would have supported Richard? Spain or Burgundy? If Richard's sister Margaret recognizes Perkin Warbeck as Richard of Shrewsbury as she did OTL then that may strain relationships with Burgundy or if Richard's son is betrothed to Spain, would they support princess York or remain neutral or decide to drop the betrothal?

2. What would have been the likely outcome? It's likely Rich would've been unsuccessful in putting princess York on the throne but may she have been given a decent settlement ie perhaps a marriage to Manuel or his nephew Jaime or something better?

3. How would relationships with Portugal progress into the 1500's and early 1600's?

4. How different would it have been if Rich and Joanna had a son?

 

[HortenseMancini]

Most likely Manuel will marry Princess York. I'm not sure if Margaret of York would support Perkin Warbeck over her brother.

 

[FitzEmperor]

Most likely Manuel will marry Princess York. I'm not sure if Margaret of York would support Perkin Warbeck over her brother.

So if Joanna had a son, would this mean that the Prince of Wales would inherit the Portuguese crown or if not how may it be settled?

 

[Kurt_Steiner]

Dickon in Spain, but in the other corner of the Peninsula... funny.

Let's hope that if Richard's daughter marries Juan of Aragon the prince lives longer this time.

 

[Sarthak]

Hm, could this lead to an Anglo-Portuguese personal union?

 

[Tyler96]

1. Who would have supported Richard? Spain or Burgundy? If Richard's sister Margaret recognizes Perkin Warbeck as Richard of Shrewsbury as she did OTL then that may strain relationships with Burgundy or if Richard's son is betrothed to Spain, would they support princess York or remain neutral or decide to drop the betrothal?

She supported Warbeck IOTL because of her dislike of Tudor, I highly doubt she’d back him when her own brother is still sitting on the throne.

 

[Phalamus]

Definitely the Portuguese would not be willing to allow a foreign monarch rule their country, especially a female, therefore placing Manuel the Duke of Beja as king AOTL.

Define "the Portuguese". John II hated Manuel's guts because his brother had conspired with the Spanish to have him deposed, and Manuel seemed to friendly with Isabella and Ferdinand. He spent his last few years in a futile effort to have his bastard son Jorge legitimised so that he could inherit the kingdom. If Joana marries and has an issue - even if it's a female - the problem solves itself, especially if Richard III agrees to have his daughter betrothed to Jorge and accepts a regency led by John's partisans. Sure, any personal union would be bound to raise a few eyebrows but England at this time wasn't a threat to Portugal's colonial ambitions, while Spain was. I find it very likely that John II would support his grandniece's claim to the throne (unless, of course, Richard III proves unwilling to make any concessions), and after all the purges conducted during his reign, he will have his way. Surely there would be Spanish-backed pro-Manuel intrigues, but I believe they're most likely to fail.

 

[FitzEmperor]

Define "the Portuguese". John II hated Manuel's guts because his brother had conspired with the Spanish to have him deposed, and Manuel seemed to friendly with Isabella and Ferdinand. He spent his last few years in a futile effort to have his bastard son Jorge legitimised so that he could inherit the kingdom. If Joana marries and has an issue - even if it's a female - the problem solves itself, especially if Richard III agrees to have his daughter betrothed to Jorge and accepts a regency led by John's partisans. Sure, any personal union would be bound to raise a few eyebrows but England at this time wasn't a threat to Portugal's colonial ambitions, while Spain was. I find it very likely that John II would support his grandniece's claim to the throne (unless, of course, Richard III proves unwilling to make any concessions), and after all the purges conducted during his reign, he will have his way. Surely there would be Spanish-backed pro-Manuel intrigues, but I believe they're most likely to fail.

Would a marriage between Richard's son and Catherine of Aragon still be possible if Spain support Manuel, as Aragonese princesses with Lancastrian blood would be the best choice for marriage if Richard's son wants to keep a stable dynasty?

 

[Phalamus]

Would a marriage between Richard's son and Catherine of Aragon still be possible if Spain support Manuel, as Aragonese princesses with Lancastrian blood would be the best choice for marriage if Richard's son wants to keep a stable dynasty?

If there is no war (which I don't think there'll be because João will make sure his grandniece's acclamation goes smoothly after his death) or if this is happening before or after that war, I suppose it would still be possible.