WI: Ukraine Economic Powerhouse

[TheKutKu]

How are you going to stop the Russian invasion without numbers?

By having a deterant? Not nuclear of course, but an "Ukrainian economic powerhouse" would eventually have the capability (after a transition period to decouple from Russian industries) to keep mass Producing IRBMs and even ICBM

There is no Russian invasion of Ukraine, no Donbas war if any troops crossing the border means The Kremlin is a crater within the next 30 minutes.

Conscription can be good or bad depending on how it’s done, plenty of very wealthy countries have conscription, but a wealthy country the size of Ukraine wouldn’t need conscription to make an effective deterrent.

 

[Vladyslav]

to keep mass Producing IRBMs and even ICBM

There is no Russian invasion of Ukraine, no Donbas war if any troops crossing the border means The Kremlin is a crater within the next 30 minutes.

Well, yes, the Russians with their missile power were so good at breaking through the Ukrainian air defense IOTL. Non-nuclear strikes on the enemy's rear are not in themselves capable of turning the tide of the war without an army that will take advantage of the enemy's weakening

 

[TheKutKu]

Well, yes, the Russians with their missile power were so good at breaking through the Ukrainian air defense IOTL. Non-nuclear strikes on the enemy's rear are not in themselves capable of turning the tide of the war without an army that will take advantage of the enemy's weakening

You do know what a deterrent is, right?
An "Ukrainian economic powerhouse" has incredibly less brain drain and infrastructure decay in strategic sectors, an "Ukrainian economic powerhouse" would be able to produce modern ballistic missiles, an "Ukrainian economic powerhouse" would also Be by default a nuclear-latent state like Japan.

 

[Vladyslav]

would also Be by default a nuclear-latent state like Japan.

The nuclear weapons production requires several specific technologies - uranium enrichment and plutonium fabrication and separation - and takes quite a long time (at least year). Ukraine is unlikely to start this before the Russian invasion because the rejection of the NPT is an effective way to quarrel with the West and a ready-made casus belli for Russia. That is, Ukrainian "deterrent" is the second year of the war factor, and Ukraine must be lived up to it with the conventional weapons help.

 

[Aleksey A E]

This is the detail. Russia will not fight if it knows that it will be difficult.

 

[HelloThere]

Could we stick to the POD? It's in 1989 for Christ's sake, depending on the development in Ukraine (and thus the whole world) Vladimir Putin could be a used-cars salesman ITTL in 2023.

 

[Vladyslav]

This is the detail. Russia will not fight if it knows that it will be difficult.

It depends from the copium dose ITTL. IOTL, if Russians had a better understanding of Ukrainian strength, they wouldn't have invade. Unfortunately, the didn't

Vladimir Putin could be a used-cars salesman ITTL in 2023.

and president Rogozin uses nukes, yes. Putin is not the only guy in Russia who want to rewrite 1989 and 1991

 

[HelloThere]

and president Rogozin uses nukes, yes. Putin is not the only guy in Russia who want to rewrite 1989 and 1991

The Russian war on Ukraine isn't a law of nature. There is no big pro-war-movement inside the country, most don't care (which is bad of course, but indicates a big difference). Thinking Russia's foreign policy wouldn't be different in a world where it's close neighbor is on another path is just hair-raising. There are so many PODs in the 90's where Russia could have gone so many ways, it being a autocratic oligarchy led by a former KGB-agent isn't destiny.

 

[Vladyslav]

The Russian war on Ukraine isn't a law of nature. There is no big pro-war-movement inside the country, most don't care (which is bad of course, but indicates a big difference). Thinking Russia's foreign policy wouldn't be different in a world where it's close neighbor is on another path is just hair-raising. There are so many PODs in the 90's where Russia could have gone so many ways, it being a autocratic oligarchy led by a former KGB-agent isn't destiny.

The first Russian territorial claims began a few days after the declaration of Ukraine's independence. In the 1990s, the Russian parliament made decisions on the non-recognition of Ukrainian rights to Crimea and the collapse of the USSR. In the 2000s, the mayor of Moscow came to Sevastopol and campaigned for its accession to Russia. In the 2010s, you know what happened in the 2010s. Russian threat was real and would be real before the generation that studied in the school that Ukraine is a separate country will come to power. Will this threat transit from potential to real war? It depends. But nobody should ignore it in their TL