zesamofdepast
Banned
Russia is weaker than in OTL and this allows Turkey to intervene on behalf of its fellow Turkic nation Azerbaijan during the Nagorno-Karabakh War. How does this affect Caucasia?
WI: Turkey intervenes on behalf of Azerbaijan
- Thread starter zesamofdepast
- Start date
This has the possibility of regional destabilization and disruption of oil flows, which the global and regional powers will be aware of and thus seek to bring the conflict to a close. If Turkey decides to get involved Russia, even in its weakened state, could view it as a prelude to a wider Western encroachment into the region, and throw its weight around in the area. You could actually see Russian forces on the ground in Armenia/ Azerbaijan if things get heated enough.
HistoricalArthropod
Banned
Who would win. Turkey and Azerbaijan, or Russia and Armenia. What would Iran do?
BigBlueBox
Banned
Iran supported Armenia OTL but had no direct involvement. They would likely keep the same policy ITTL but would be more subtle about it to avoid angering Turkey. Iranian relations with Azerbaijan were and still are rather complicated. On one hand they are both Shiite countries that share certain cultural characteristics. On the other hand, in the past Azerbaijan expressed irredentist goals about unifying all Azeris - including the ones in Iran - into a Greater Azerbaijan. That obviously soured relations between the two countries. Iran also helped mediate the peace negotiations between the two countries in OTL. Russia has its own internal affairs and the Abkhazian and South Ossetian conflicts to handle. If Turkey completely commits to the Azeri cause with all available forces the the Azeris will win but there would be a lot of backlash.
The Turkish-Azeri alliance will commit atrocities - that is a near-certainty in ethnic conflicts like this one. Those atrocities will overshadow anything the Armenians might have done, including the Khojaly Massacre. It will be compared to the Armenian genocide, and this will have serious repercussions on Turkey’s relations with its Western allies.
If America and the other NATO countries condemn Turkey and reinstate the weapons embargo then Turkey will become alienated earlier, and that alienation would be much worse than Turkey’s OTL present day alienation. If America and the other NATO countries take no meaningful action against Turkey then that passivity will be viewed as implicit support for Turkey. Any American/NATO interventions into Yugoslavia or the Middle East will be viewed far more cynically, and the belief in American hypocrisy will be dramatically strengthened.
NATO is in a lose-lose situation.
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
Turkish intervention means Armenia can not fight there. You pretty much have Karabag beign abandoned by Armenia.
No border adjustments, just no Nagorno-Karabakh as a state.
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
Iran will hardly intervene. They are just out of war.
Russia alone is enough for the Caucasus. They can't attack Turkey for avoiding Nato danger. But any Turkish Forces in Karabag are a target.
I don't know if Russia is willing to fight for Karabag but they will get something. Maybe with the Azerbaijani oil?
weirdly enough, I can remember reading a couple of 'future history' scenarios in the aftermath of the USSR's fall, talking about a possible Azerbaijani/Armenian war. It was widely assumed that Iran and/or Turkey would back Azerbaijan and Armenia would see a second genocide. Didn't work out that way...
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
Kurdish Insurgency started to heat up in 1993. It ain't that far fetched but I don't see Armenia fight long enough to support the Kurds.
Koprulu Mustafa Pasha
Gone Fishin'
Yes.
Although I still wonder if the Russian will fight if Turkey makes some promises. No unity with Azerbaijan, just clearing Karabag from Armenian Soldiers.