WI: Three possible Chickamauga outcomes

[Lycaon pictus]

IOTL, General Rosecrans of the Army of the Cumberland was doing pretty well up until the Battle of Chickamauga. Then one of his officers screwed up, reporting a gap in the Union lines that wasn't really there. Rosecrans redirected some units to try to plug this imaginary gap, creating a real one in the process. Longstreet stumbled onto this gap and made use of it, inflicting a major defeat on the Union army.

Suppose this mistake doesn't happen. Here are three possible ways the battle could end:

1. Stalemate. Rosecrans and Bragg are both weakened, and neither is in a position to advance for the moment.
2. Union victory. Rosecrans is in a position to advance, and Bragg must retreat to the next defensible position with less in the way of men and materiel than he had before.
3. Union curbstomp. Bragg never gets the chance to retreat. The Army of Tennessee is so thoroughly defeated that it ceases to exist as an effective fighting force, with all Confederate soldiers captured, killed or fleeing in a disorganized manner.

In each case, what happens next?


Here's a previous thread on the subject, for reference.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

#1 sounds like itcould end up w similar results to OTL -- well, no siege of Chattanoga, but still some sort of delay; if the next battle isn't a Union victory, all the more like otl.

 

[Anaxagoras]

3. Union curbstomp. Bragg never gets the chance to retreat. The Army of Tennessee is so thoroughly defeated that it ceases to exist as an effective fighting force, with all Confederate soldiers captured, killed or fleeing in a disorganized manner.

This is extremely unlikely. No Civil War ended like this except Nashville, where the Confederates were heavily outnumbered, demoralized, freezing, ill-equipped, and nearly starving. At Chickamauga, the Confederates outnumbered the Union forces and did not suffer from anything approaching the harsh conditions at Nashville.

The Union could certainly win the battle, but had no chance to inflict an Austerlitz-level defeat on the Army of Tennessee (which, lest we forget, had two divisions from the Army of Northern Virginia on hand, too).

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

<snip>

Ok, with #1 kind of boring, and #3 bordering on implausible, why don't we just look at #2?

 

[Anaxagoras]

Ok, with #1 kind of boring, and #3 bordering on implausible, why don't we just look at #2?

The Union army is likely to be too damaged to immediately pursue, rather like the situation after Murfreesboro. Bragg will probably fall back to Rocky Face Ridge, which was as good a defensive position as one could find around there. Oddly enough, this outcome would probably leave the Confederates in a better position than was the case IOTL, since it doesn't sound like the rout of Missionary Ridge.

Rosecrans will obviously keep his command in this situation. That opens up interesting possibilities for 1864. It also raises the question of whether Grant is called to Washington to become general-in-chief, since he would not have added Chattanooga to his list of victories.

Does Bragg remain in command? Davis obviously supported him through pretty awful times. Since we can assume that Chickamauga was lost largely through the ineptitude of Polk, does Bragg finally have enough ammunition to get Davis to sack him? If so, the Army of Tennessee will be in much better shape, defeat or not.

 

[TFSmith121]

Perryville, Stone's River, and Chickamauga...

The Union army is likely to be too damaged to immediately pursue, rather like the situation after Murfreesboro. Bragg will probably fall back to Rocky Face Ridge, which was as good a defensive position as one could find around there. Oddly enough, this outcome would probably leave the Confederates in a better position than was the case IOTL, since it doesn't sound like the rout of Missionary Ridge.

Rosecrans will obviously keep his command in this situation. That opens up interesting possibilities for 1864. It also raises the question of whether Grant is called to Washington to become general-in-chief, since he would not have added Chattanooga to his list of victories.

Does Bragg remain in command? Davis obviously supported him through pretty awful times. Since we can assume that Chickamauga was lost largely through the ineptitude of Polk, does Bragg finally have enough ammunition to get Davis to sack him? If so, the Army of Tennessee will be in much better shape, defeat or not.

Perryville, Stone's River, and Chickamauga... three battles that all end up being mutual bludgeonings.

I could see Davis keeping Bragg in command, and Rosecrans hanging on as well ...

I think Grant is still the obvious candidate for GinC, even without Chattanooga; Vicksburg was recognized as a major victory, and in 1863-64, Grant remains the only army commander (on either side) to have an unbroken string of victories, including the surrender of not one but two signficant rebel bastions and their respective defenders ... and he has confidence in Sherman.

If Rosecrans and Bragg are still glowering at each other in southeastern Tennessee, and Grant goes east, my question would be where does Sherman go with the Army of the Tennessee? Northeast to reinforce (and take command) over Rosecrans, or southeast toward Mobile? A "march top the sea" but toward the Gulf, not the Atlantic?

And from there, northeast, again, toward Atlanta with Mobile and Pensacola as supply bases? And JE Johnston retreating in front of Sherman into Georgia?

Best,

 

[Rich Rostrom]

If Rosecrans and Bragg are still glowering at each other in southeastern Tennessee, and Grant goes east, my question would be where does Sherman go with the Army of the Tennessee? Northeast to reinforce (and take command) over Rosecrans...

I don't think that's politically possible. Rosencrans is a hard-fighting general who's won three tough battles (Corinth, Stones River, Chickamauga). Superseding him is not going to occur to Lincoln. Plus Sherman at this time has never commanded a major army on his own, aside from the Meridian campaign, which had no battles.

or southeast toward Mobile? A "march top the sea" but toward the Gulf, not the Atlantic?

ISTM there is a good chance Sherman marches east from New Orleans to Mobile, rather than cross-country.

And from there, northeast, again, toward Atlanta with Mobile and Pensacola as supply bases?

East across Alabama, Florida, and Georgia to the Atlantic and then north to Savannah. Although a march up the Chattahoochee against Atlanta would force Bragg or his replacement to retreat from Tennessee.

 

[Blackfox5]

This is extremely unlikely. No Civil War ended like this except Nashville, where the Confederates were heavily outnumbered, demoralized, freezing, ill-equipped, and nearly starving.

I would say that Grant's victories at Ft Donelson, Vicksburg, and Appomattox where an entire Confederate army surrendered en masse would also qualify as a curbstomp.

I don't think Rosecrans has the skill to achieve this, but I think it is going to far to say such results simply did not happen during the Civil War.

 

[Corder]

Although theknightirish's Glorious Union TL is massively different at this point he does have a similar scenario where you have the Army of the cumberland pushing through SE Tennessee towards Atlanta, while you have the Union army from Vicksburg (Army of the Mississippi?) Push east through Jackson and towards Selma with a view to threatening Atlanta from the south west while maintaining the option of striking south against Mobile.

 

[Tallil2long]

I would say that Grant's victories at Ft Donelson, Vicksburg, and Appomattox where an entire Confederate army surrendered en masse would also qualify as a curbstomp.

I don't think Rosecrans has the skill to achieve this, but I think it is going to far to say such results simply did not happen during the Civil War.

Well, these curbstomps were done under special circumstances.

Donelson and Vicksburg were sieges: the Confederate armies had no way to escape, and so had to surrender en masse.

Appomattox was really the culmination of the Confederacy's dissolution. Pried away from the trenches and into open country (one that was rapidly falling apart), the Confederate army was just too weak and ill-supplied to put up much of a fight.