WI the US sent over an equivalent troop level of the European Theater of WW2 to Vietnam?
- Thread starter Malone
- Start date
Deleted member 1487
Not to mention the economic impact of mobilizing all those young men.
Beyond the cost, in money and political discontent, even the coldest of Cold Warriors will ask, as they did historically, "why are fighting for the South Vietnamese when the the South Vietnamese won't fight for themselves?"
Let’s briefly look at the effect on the PLAF/NFL. I will assume here that three million is targeted for 1969 and that the 2nd American Revolution / Civil war doesn’t occur until 1970.
Bad US tactics predominate until 1967, with US forces sopping a lot of casualties that the ARVN did historically. The PLAF cracks in 1967 excepting local force militia (many of whom are tortured to death by US pacification teams.). The NFL manages somewhat better, being fully legitimised but operating at French or even Dutch (yes deliberately) levels of resistance. Systematic crimes against humanity are widespread, more so given the RVN state apparatus is unable to “process” sweeps conducted to a clear status. Thankfully napalm sticks to dead kids and well as it does to the living.
The Duan faction is completely unseated, leading to a reformist northern development line combined with drip feeding PLAF forces into hell in order to keep politics stress on the United States.
The first signs of change come with mutinies in 1967/8 particularly among black front line infantry. I’d probably guess the mutinies are successful by 68-69 as there aren’t state based paramilitary to control the riots and uprising across urban America. As Marines have told me, the outcome largely depends on whether they’re Gung-ho or radical right nationalists in this scenario.
Fewer dead Northern Vietnamese. Less chemical warfare. More dead Americans (clap, accident, opfor). Southern revolution less politically developed but northern Party closer towards Tito (minimum) than historically. Nagy (53) or Nagy (56) is probably the maximum reformism.
Yours,
Sam R.
Bad US tactics predominate until 1967, with US forces sopping a lot of casualties that the ARVN did historically. The PLAF cracks in 1967 excepting local force militia (many of whom are tortured to death by US pacification teams.). The NFL manages somewhat better, being fully legitimised but operating at French or even Dutch (yes deliberately) levels of resistance. Systematic crimes against humanity are widespread, more so given the RVN state apparatus is unable to “process” sweeps conducted to a clear status. Thankfully napalm sticks to dead kids and well as it does to the living.
The Duan faction is completely unseated, leading to a reformist northern development line combined with drip feeding PLAF forces into hell in order to keep politics stress on the United States.
The first signs of change come with mutinies in 1967/8 particularly among black front line infantry. I’d probably guess the mutinies are successful by 68-69 as there aren’t state based paramilitary to control the riots and uprising across urban America. As Marines have told me, the outcome largely depends on whether they’re Gung-ho or radical right nationalists in this scenario.
Fewer dead Northern Vietnamese. Less chemical warfare. More dead Americans (clap, accident, opfor). Southern revolution less politically developed but northern Party closer towards Tito (minimum) than historically. Nagy (53) or Nagy (56) is probably the maximum reformism.
Yours,
Sam R.
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Well, the second ACW strands the troops in the RVN. Do the GIs establish a minority rule state or do they intermarry with the locals?
Good news, victory may just be possible in Vietnam
Bad news: Riots, civil unrest back in the USA, lots of more young men get killed or wounded in a brutal jungle conflict, not to mention China (and to a lesser degree, the Soviets) are not going to be happy at all with that many US soldiers in SE Asia.
Bad news: Riots, civil unrest back in the USA, lots of more young men get killed or wounded in a brutal jungle conflict, not to mention China (and to a lesser degree, the Soviets) are not going to be happy at all with that many US soldiers in SE Asia.
kernals12
Banned
A second ACW is absurd. People angry about this can peacefully vote out politicians who support it.
FillyofDelphi
Banned
But far more realistic and interesting. Throw the US into chaos and I deeply worry somebody is going to go Strangelove, and we all know Fallout don't get good until centuries after the bombs drop
And yet a dolchstosslegende exists iOTL. The level of political disconnection between the American nomenklatura and capitalists, and the general public required for 3 million bodies is the same that would guarantee a 2nd ACW/Revolution. As far as achieving political governance out of step with the potential electorate, I commend to you the history of the United States and constituent states electoral politics.
IMHO in the 1950s and 1960s only a Democrat could be dumb enough to do this. Some one air headed, inexperienced and a substance abuser. Busy chasing tail, excluding his deal maker from cabinet, thinking he was international relations hot shit while almost causing nuclear war. Some dumb jock.
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Just for perspective, the population of south Vietnam around this time was only about 10 million. 5 million are women. I have the 5 million males exclude at least 2 million as being too young or too old leaving 3 million combat age men. So you were proposing to put a US Army in South Vietnam equivalent to the entire population of adult males.
A certain proportion of that male Vietnamese population Are needed to keep the country operating maintain the farm, work in the factories and shops and so forth. Which means that the US combat force will outnumber the available male Vietnamese combat force by at least 5 to 1.
Lucked out from another direction there was 3 million American soldiers, in the field needs to be supported buy a logistical foundation off at least 5 to 1 and a civilian economy converted to supporting that
A certain proportion of that male Vietnamese population Are needed to keep the country operating maintain the farm, work in the factories and shops and so forth. Which means that the US combat force will outnumber the available male Vietnamese combat force by at least 5 to 1.
Lucked out from another direction there was 3 million American soldiers, in the field needs to be supported buy a logistical foundation off at least 5 to 1 and a civilian economy converted to supporting that
FillyofDelphi
Banned
Well, that depends somewhat. If the Soviets see the US shifting onto Total War footing and getting their men organized, systems of logistics and command tested out, and population toughened to the experience of war they are liable to wonder what it's for. It can't just be Vietnam, way too big for that...
Communist China, at the very least, is liable to not exactly cut down on arms production when 3 million Imperialists are right on her border
Well if they also shot the locals, and send the rest into reservations....sorry strategic hamlets, maybe Congress will be ok with the settler policy?
TDM
Kicked
Given the strategy used in the Vietnam war what are these 3m men going to do? Comb the countryside for NVA / VC have 6x the hard points, you going to park a platoon on every Vietnamese village with a pop over 100. This will be a huge logistical and resource drain to basically turn South Vietnam into an armed camp manned by conscripted chaps*. You want to invade North Vietnam then OK 3m troops with all the stuff that goes with that makes that easier in theory, but I suspect they'll be met by similar numbers of Chinese help. At which point you're now talking a conventional conflict 2-3x bigger than Korea and if cooler heads don't prevail something much worse than that!
*and while obviously 6x US troop number swill make the NVA/VC's job harder, it's also a target rich environment
*and while obviously 6x US troop number swill make the NVA/VC's job harder, it's also a target rich environment
IDK, 3 million GIs overseas when America is in civil war would be the biggest refugee crisis in human history. I doubt Japan, Taiwan, and the Phillipines can house them.