WI: The Qing Dynasty crushes the Xinhai Revolution

[A Piece of History]

In a precursor to the Xinhai Revolution, On October 10, 1911, revolutionaries in Wuchang launched an uprising against the Qing Dynasty. They quickly seized Hankou and Hanyang on the north bank of the Yangstze River. On October 14, the Qing court in Beijing ordered the Beiyang Army, the strongest military unit of the regime, against the uprising in Wuhan.

From October to November, even as provinces began breaking away from the Qing Dynasty, the revolutionaries were in full retreat, with thousands of their number dead. The only thing that saved them in the end was the Beiyang Army's commander, Yuan Shikai's fear of irrelevance if the uprising was crushed. After taking Hankou and Hanyang, Shikai declared a ceasefire and began negotiating with the rebellion.

But what if Yuan Shikai refused to negotiate with the revolutionaries and proceeded to crush them, thereby foiling the Xinhai Revolution?

 

[Historyman 14]

This should be in after 1900.

But besides that, there is nothing to save the Qing. Before 1911, you had uprsing after uprsing. You have a weak bureaucracy (small amount of officers and rampany corruption), huge size (makes communication difficult), huge population (even a small fraction angry means a lot of people) and ethnic strife. (The Qing a ethnically Manchu based dynasty, was already viewed as much as foreign blight by the more numerous Han Chinese population. And they where dicks, treating the Han like crap.)

There is just too much factional tension and incompetence to save the Qing at this point. Besides, the revolutionaries where already infiltrated the New Army.

What could happened is Yuan Shikai overthrow the Qing himself. (And then wait till the Republicans and revolutionaries regroup and bring on the Republic.)

 

[Kaze]

There would be another revolution attempt. It was a matter of time - there was no saving the Qing by that point.
There was only three ways to go:
1. Yuan Shikai becomes dictator for life.
2. Constitutional monarchy patterned after the Prussians / British - (insert your favorite leader here).
The usual list of rulers for # 2 goes ---
a. Qing Prince (unlikely, but it would take Yuan Shikai or Doctor Sun becoming Prime Minister)
b. a Descendant of Confucius (there was some support for it, but it petered out)
c. a Descendant of the Ming Emperor (there was some support for it, but it petered out)
d. Yuan Shikai (he preferred to do #1)
e. other.
3. Creation of the Republic of China.

 

[Historyman 14]

There would be another revolution attempt. It was a matter of time - there was no saving the Qing by that point.
There was only three ways to go:
1. Yuan Shikai becomes dictator for life.
2. Constitutional monarchy patterned after the Prussians / British - (insert your favorite leader here).
The usual list of rulers for # 2 goes ---
a. Qing Prince (unlikely, but it would take Yuan Shikai or Doctor Sun becoming Prime Minister)
b. a Descendant of Confucius (there was some support for it, but it petered out)
c. a Descendant of the Ming Emperor (there was some support for it, but it petered out)
d. Yuan Shikai (he preferred to do #1)
e. other.
3. Creation of the Republic of China.

Pretty much. You can say the Qing's was doomed since the Taiping Rebellion. Everything after was just nails in the coffin.

Any constitutional monarchy would be a Bonaparte-esque military dictatorship to say the least. (But it would be beat to see Confucius's line, or even the Ming be it.)

 

[Kaze]

I put the dooming a little after the Taipings - my usual cut off is a day prior to the Boxer Rebellion. After that, all bets are off for the Qing - they are doom to die.
==========
As for the Bornapartesque military style government - that is why I put the Prussian Constitution, which was very militaristic - so much so that it united Germany. Bizmarck's Prussian / German Constitution was the basis for the Meiji one.

 

[Incanian]

One thing limiting the Qing was Sinocentrism, and the idea of Chinese superiority that wasn't really crushed till the Sino-Japanese war of 1895, but the Taiping Rebellion did force some reformation acts, like the modernization of the navy.

The main cause that made the Xinhai Revolution a victory for the Republicanists, was Yuan Shikai joining their forces. If you get a loyal Yuan Shikai, then the Qing will most likely crush the Xinhai Revolution. A parliament and constitution were a few years away, but the Qing can only stay in power if they don't break the Confucius code. They'd need to try to fracture the Republicanist cause further. Maybe try to support some Chinese gangs to fight Republicanist strongholds, or put the small but active Ming loyalists against the Republicanists.