WI: The CCP invades Hong Kong?

Tsochar

The Chinese Communists seemed unstoppable when the People's Republic was proclaimed in 1949. Revolutionary fervor was at an all-time high. The British government drew up plans to evacuate to Australia. But in OTL, the People's Liberation Army was ordered to stop at the Shenzhen border.

What would have happened if they hadn't? Would the British and Portuguese have counterattacked? If so, how hard? Would they just try to re-invade Hong Kong and Macau, or would they try striking at Beijing? What about the Soviets? What about the UN? Could a British War in China become the type of quagmire that Vietnam became for the French and USA?
 
HongCanucker

HongCanucker

A Communist Chinese invasion of Hong Kong would face more problems than the Japanese did in 1941. For one, the Hong Kong Garrison and Royal Hong Kong Police Force was reinforcing itself to prepare for any possible attack by China, resulting in a stronger force than the woefully inadequately prepared C Force. Next, the British aren't being tied up anywhere else in the world except Korea, which means they can send more men to reinforce the Hong Kong Garrison further. I could see fighting against the CCP get bogged down until the British are forced off Kowloon Peninsula or reinforcements from the rest of the Commonwealth and possibly the United States arrive.

It would also lead to the British government withdrawing its recognition of the People's Republic of China as the sole and legitimate government of China. The British was one of the first nations which did this, mostly in order to placate the Communists into not invading Hong Kong, but if the CCP marches over Shenzhen that recognition would surely be withdrawn.

As for military strategy, I myself am unsure. But given attitudes in Western Europe and the Americas to Communism at the time, it could look really ugly... :eek:
 

RousseauX

Donor
Tsochar said:
The Chinese Communists seemed unstoppable when the People's Republic was proclaimed in 1949. Revolutionary fervor was at an all-time high. The British government drew up plans to evacuate to Australia. But in OTL, the People's Liberation Army was ordered to stop at the Shenzhen border.

What would have happened if they hadn't? Would the British and Portuguese have counterattacked? If so, how hard? Would they just try to re-invade Hong Kong and Macau, or would they try striking at Beijing? What about the Soviets? What about the UN? Could a British War in China become the type of quagmire that Vietnam became for the French and USA?
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The PLA rolls into Hong Kong and the British can't do much about it, this was before Korea but after WW2 so the fear of Communism was not nearly as much of a factor yet and demobilization meant British power projection is going to be very limited. The example of Suez crisis is not very encouraging as far as British rapid reaction goes and the example of Korea suggests that a British counterattack is going to go very badly.

Also the geography of HK means that its indefensible and 1949 PLA is actually a pretty good army. Basically China (RoC and PRC) had being in position to take HK since 1945 or so it's just that it was much more convenient to leave it under British control until the 80s.

Same thing goes for Macau except even more so, in the 1960s IIRC Macau actually offered to hand the place over to the PRC and the PRC didn't want it back.
 

RousseauX

Donor
HongCanucker said:
A Communist Chinese invasion of Hong Kong would face more problems than the Japanese did in 1941. For one, the Hong Kong Garrison and Royal Hong Kong Police Force was reinforcing itself to prepare for any possible attack by China, resulting in a stronger force than the woefully inadequately prepared C Force. Next, the British aren't being tied up anywhere else in the world except Korea, which means they can send more men to reinforce the Hong Kong Garrison further. I could see fighting against the CCP get bogged down until the British are forced off Kowloon Peninsula or reinforcements from the rest of the Commonwealth and possibly the United States arrive.

It would also lead to the British government withdrawing its recognition of the People's Republic of China as the sole and legitimate government of China. The British was one of the first nations which did this, mostly in order to placate the Communists into not invading Hong Kong, but if the CCP marches over Shenzhen that recognition would surely be withdrawn.

As for military strategy, I myself am unsure. But given attitudes in Western Europe and the Americas to Communism at the time, it could look really ugly... :eek:
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Nobody really cared enough to fight rearguard actions for other colonial powers in the late 40s, or even the early-mid 50s for that matter.

I never understood why people keep thinking the US or Canada would fight for the British in retaining colonial possessions, historically they never did this and it's really obvious why (it doesn't benefit them enough to die for).
 

Kaiser K

Wouldn't China invading Hong Kong constitute as an act of war against the UK and NATO and thus kickstart a general regional war?
 

oreocruncher

RousseauX said:
errrr...why?
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Because the fact that China invaded Hong Kong and Macau, which are at the hands of Britain and Portugal respectively, would bolster them to push to be tough against China in the Korean war when they intervene...so that history doesn't repeat with Korea...
 

RousseauX

Donor
oreocruncher said:
Because the fact that China invaded Hong Kong and Macau, which are at the hands of Britain and Portugal respectively, would bolster them to push to be tough against China in the Korean war when they intervene...so that history doesn't repeat with Korea...
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OP is talking about 1949, before the Korean war

But no, it wouldn't make sense to intervene even -during- the Korea War because again, neither of those places are defensible nor are they strategically significant, good luck with sticking soldiers into the meat grinder.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Kaiser K said:
Wouldn't China invading Hong Kong constitute as an act of war against the UK and NATO and thus kickstart a general regional war?
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No, NATO charter explicitly states that the alliance is only relevant w.r.t Europe and North America.

The reason for this is precisely because nobody wants to get dragged into British/French/Dutch colonial conflicts.
 

RousseauX

Donor
black angel said:
Korean War much? or more to the point, The French-Indochina War, the US for years paid 2/3rds of France's military bills for the war,
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Korean War occurred because South Korea was seen as a strategic threat to Japan if controlled by Communists whereas Hong Kong is strategically a threat to nowhere.

Ok, I guess I could see the US paying the British bill but then again if the Chinese does invade Hong Kong the whole thing is done in like a week or two tops so it's not awfully relevant.

and even thought of using Nukes to help the French hold the line
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Only in the sense that the French -asked- for Nukes and the US told them to fuck off
 

RousseauX

Donor
I think people ITT is kinda gaming this out using HOI video-game logic where you have to declare war on the allies alliance to take 1 province and is greatly greatly overestimating the importance of Hong Kong to anybody in the 1950s.
 

Kaiser K

RousseauX said:
No, NATO charter explicitly states that the alliance is only relevant w.r.t Europe and North America.

The reason for this is precisely because nobody wants to get dragged into British/French/Dutch colonial conflicts.
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Okay, that makes sense I guess.
 

RousseauX

Donor
black angel said:
no, Nixon, the American Vice-President supported it, as did many people in the cabinet, Ike said no.
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http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-27243803

if Dien Bien Phu fell. It was around this time, at a meeting in Paris, that Dulles supposedly made his astonishing offer to the French of tactical nuclear weapons.

In fact, Dulles was never authorised to make such an offer and there is no hard evidence that he did so. It seems possible that in the febrile atmosphere of those days the panic-stricken French may simply have misunderstood him. Or his words may have got lost in translation.
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