WI:Taliban invasion of Tajikistan

walmart

say the Taliban does better and defeats the northern alliance and takes full control of Afghanistan in earlier 1996 or late 1995

Could the Taliban launch an intervention on behalf of the UTO

How successful would a full scale Taliban intervention be

would the Russians invade Afghanistan

would there be large Al Qaeda attacks against Russian targets

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tajikistani_Civil_War
 
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m0585

Not very. The Taliban wouldn't have been less than effective in the conventional fight. The Russians, I don't believe, would invade Afghanistan (too many bad memories). They would however intervene more directly in Tajikistan. The only thing this venture would gain the Taliban is the loss of men and equipment.
 
WILDGEESE

WILDGEESE

Noscoper said:
say the Taliban does better and defeats the northern alliance and takes full control of Afghanistan in earlier 1996 or late 1995

Could the Taliban launch an intervention on behalf of the UTO

How successful would a full scale Taliban intervention be

would the Russians invade Afghanistan


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tajikistani_Civil_War
Click to expand...

I might be wrong but I think the Dale Brown series of novels have this in it's timelines and backstory.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
m0585 said:
Not very. The Taliban wouldn't have been less than effective in the conventional fight. The Russians, I don't believe, would invade Afghanistan (too many bad memories). They would however intervene more directly in Tajikistan. The only thing this venture would gain the Taliban is the loss of men and equipment.
Click to expand...
Agreed with all of this; in this TL, Russia would militarily intervene in Tajikistan and would also probably have the support of most of the Tajik people. After all, after 70 years of Marxism-Leninism, most Tajiks probably (and thankfully) didn't want the type of Islamic fundamentalism that the Taliban were offering.
 

walmart

m0585 said:
Not very. The Taliban wouldn't have been less than effective in the conventional fight. The Russians, I don't believe, would invade Afghanistan (too many bad memories). They would however intervene more directly in Tajikistan. The only thing this venture would gain the Taliban is the loss of men and equipment.
Click to expand...

How effective would guerrilla tactics be against the Russians and the government
 

walmart

CaliGuy said:
Well, that would only matter if the Russians actually invade Afghanistan--which they probably wouldn't actually do--in this TL.
Click to expand...
Couldn't they just sent large amounts of men and material into Tajikistan and have them wage a guerrilla campaign with the help of UTO
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Noscoper said:
Couldn't they just sent large amounts of men and material into Tajikistan and have them wage a guerrilla campaign with the help of UTO
Click to expand...
They could, but such a guerilla campaign might not be that successful considering that 70 years of Marxism will probably cause most Tajiks to reject the Taliban's brand of Islamic fundmentalism.
 

KACKO

Nobody mentioned that but there were troubles with islamists in Tajikistan in 90-ties. I guess it was not making much news in the west or it was overshadowed by news from former Yugoslavia. Russia and Uzbekistan intervened OTL in favor of Tajik government. I guess it would be even more messy.

Check this

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tajikistani_Civil_War
 
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