WI: Sweden rejects EU membership in 1994?

What if the November 1994 Swedish referendum for membership into the European Union had resulted in a slight majority for the "no" vote, enough to keep the country away from the EU and thus leaving Finland as the only EU member in Scandinavia?
What would be the effects on Sweden's economy, politics, and national identity? How would relations go in regards to Norway, also not an EU member?
 

Devvy

Donor
As a nit pick, Denmark is in Scandinavia and has been an EU member state since the 1970s!

I think Sweden/Norway would make their peace with EEA status, and seek to use the Nordic Council to enhance Nordic cooperation. Enhancing Nordic freedom of movement (the Nordic passport union far predates Schengen), probably some discussions on extending the EU customs union (which requires agreement on agriculture - quite easy for these states, and fishing which might be difficult for Norway). Other areas of integration where it doesn’t contravene EU law too.
 
They would have held another one every two years or so until getting the "correct" result. The Swedish gouvernment tried just that, when Euro referendum failed to pass and only stopped once the Greek crisis broke out.
 
As a nit pick, Denmark is in Scandinavia and has been an EU member state since the 1970s!

I think Sweden/Norway would make their peace with EEA status, and seek to use the Nordic Council to enhance Nordic cooperation. Enhancing Nordic freedom of movement (the Nordic passport union far predates Schengen), probably some discussions on extending the EU customs union (which requires agreement on agriculture - quite easy for these states, and fishing which might be difficult for Norway). Other areas of integration where it doesn’t contravene EU law too.

Agreed. Sweden would likely have remained in EFTA and the EEA and enhanced Nordic cooperation across EFTA and the EU. I don't see them attempting to get the EU customs union extended to include themselves (because that would be incompatible with their EFTA membership unless they got a derogation from that), but a customs security agreement like what Norway has with the EU (which allows for simplified checks) and a mirroring of the EU's tariffs in most areas seems very likley.
 

mattep74

Kicked
What if the November 1994 Swedish referendum for membership into the European Union had resulted in a slight majority for the "no" vote, enough to keep the country away from the EU and thus leaving Finland as the only EU member in Scandinavia?
What would be the effects on Sweden's economy, politics, and national identity? How would relations go in regards to Norway, also not an EU member?

WI both Finland and Sweden voted no.

Relations towards Norway would be as usuall. The movement over the Oresund and Baltic would be propblem as the Nordic toll union would not work anymore and Denmark would be forced to implement a passport zone towards Sweden and Norway as they would not be part of Schengen. Same with Sweden and Finland. The stricter rules for travel would mean that the ferry industry takes a hit since less would travel between Stockholm and Helsinki.

I Think the Oresund brigde would be delayed until things were more clear about passport and freedom of movement.
 

Devvy

Donor
They would have held another one every two years or so until getting the "correct" result. The Swedish gouvernment tried just that, when Euro referendum failed to pass and only stopped once the Greek crisis broke out.

The Swedish Euro referendum was in 2003, and the Greek crisis started in 2009. Plenty of time to "correct the result" as you put it if they wanted; I think it's rather more likely the Govt wanted to join the Euro, and parked the referendum until such a time later when it thought it could realistically win. Which literally every Govt on the planet does. Look at Scotland; lost a fully democratic independence referendum only 5 years ago, already pushing for another one.

Agreed. Sweden would likely have remained in EFTA and the EEA and enhanced Nordic cooperation across EFTA and the EU. I don't see them attempting to get the EU customs union extended to include themselves (because that would be incompatible with their EFTA membership unless they got a derogation from that), but a customs security agreement like what Norway has with the EU (which allows for simplified checks) and a mirroring of the EU's tariffs in most areas seems very likley.

The only reason I mention a Customs Union (which I'm sure EFTA/EU could work out if Sweden/Norway & the EU wanted given that Sweden & Norway would be the only large countries left in EFTA I think by that point) as the business lobby was the main push for the Swedish EU membership effort. The likes of Volvo etc not only want free trade to European markets, but customs free to enable better supply chain efforts and ease of trade. I don't know if it's likely, but I think a "current status + customs union" - the EU signed a customs union with Turkey at about the same time when Turkey looked a good future bet, so I wouldn't rule out the EU being happy to arrange a customs union with EEA Sweden & Norway.

WI both Finland and Sweden voted no.

Relations towards Norway would be as usuall. The movement over the Oresund and Baltic would be propblem as the Nordic toll union would not work anymore and Denmark would be forced to implement a passport zone towards Sweden and Norway as they would not be part of Schengen. Same with Sweden and Finland. The stricter rules for travel would mean that the ferry industry takes a hit since less would travel between Stockholm and Helsinki.

I Think the Oresund brigde would be delayed until things were more clear about passport and freedom of movement.

The Nordic Passport Union dates back to the 1950s; Sweden and Denmark (and Finland and Norway, and later Iceland) have enjoyed passport-free travel since, and so that wouldn't stand in the way of the Oresund Bridge - although customs checks might do if no customs union is agreed (although that doesn't stand significantly in the way of Sweden-Norway OTL traffic).

Schengen was OTL a enhanced co-operation mechanism, not EU law. So Denmark can't be forced to drop the NPU and join Schengen, nor even when it becomes EU law. See the UK & Ireland - EU member states (*cough* currently *cough cough*), who are not part of the Schengen Area at all. If the 3 Scandinavian states don't join Schengen, you can sure bet Finland won't do. OTL none of the Nordic states joined Schengen piecemeal; they all agreed to merge the NPU into Schengen together and at the same time (although I believe the NPU is technically still valid, and grants a few extra rights to intra-Nordic travel & Nordic citizens).
 
The Swedish Euro referendum was in 2003, and the Greek crisis started in 2009. Plenty of time to "correct the result" as you put it if they wanted; I think it's rather more likely the Govt wanted to join the Euro, and parked the referendum until such a time later when it thought it could realistically win. Which literally every Govt on the planet does. Look at Scotland; lost a fully democratic independence referendum only 5 years ago, already pushing for another one.


Agreed on that.



The only reason I mention a Customs Union (which I'm sure EFTA/EU could work out if Sweden/Norway & the EU wanted given that Sweden & Norway would be the only large countries left in EFTA I think by that point) as the business lobby was the main push for the Swedish EU membership effort. The likes of Volvo etc not only want free trade to European markets, but customs free to enable better supply chain efforts and ease of trade. I don't know if it's likely, but I think a "current status + customs union" - the EU signed a customs union with Turkey at about the same time when Turkey looked a good future bet, so I wouldn't rule out the EU being happy to arrange a customs union with EEA Sweden & Norway.

I understand. However EFTA would still have 5 countries if Sweden didn't join the EU (it would have Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein in addition to Sweden) and the EFTA convention requires EFTA members to be signed up to all FTAs negotiated by FTA as a bloc. That is what makes UK membership of the EEA via EFTA tricky if it wanted to also maintain a customs union with the EU post-Brexit because the EFTA FTAs with third countries are different from the EU's FTAs with third countries (both in coverage and in terms of provisions). So as I noted, Sweden likely could and probably would negotiate a derogation from this EFTA provision with its EFTA partners to have a customs union with the EU (Norway is extremely unlikely to negotiate any customs union with the EU, it didn't even attempt to as far as I know and doing so would bring up the very thorny issue of fisheries which are excluded from the EEA Agreement) but there remains the possibility that Sweden might well go for a similar approach to Norway and Switzerland which have both negotiates customs security agreements with the EU which enables much smoother transit of goods (basically it allows for pre-notification of goods and allows Switzerland, Norway and the EU's customs services to view each other as trusted partners in the clearance of goods so goods need only be cleared once really). If Sweden coupled this by mirroring the EU's own tariffs where possible and attempting to negotiate individual free trade deals with countries that the EU has FTAs with but EFTA does not yet (something allowed under the EFTA convention as individual EFTA members can negotiate free trade deals with third countries) then there may not be any pressing need to actually join the EU customs union and negotiate a major derogation from the EFTA convention for Sweden as by that point all EU produced goods used in supply chains would be able to enter and leave Sweden multiple times customs free and third country goods which may form components would also be eligible for the same status provided they are from countries that Sweden has an FTA with mirroring the EU's FTAs.



The Nordic Passport Union dates back to the 1950s; Sweden and Denmark (and Finland and Norway, and later Iceland) have enjoyed passport-free travel since, and so that wouldn't stand in the way of the Oresund Bridge - although customs checks might do if no customs union is agreed (although that doesn't stand significantly in the way of Sweden-Norway OTL traffic).

Schengen was OTL a enhanced co-operation mechanism, not EU law. So Denmark can't be forced to drop the NPU and join Schengen, nor even when it becomes EU law. See the UK & Ireland - EU member states (*cough* currently *cough cough*), who are not part of the Schengen Area at all. If the 3 Scandinavian states don't join Schengen, you can sure bet Finland won't do. OTL none of the Nordic states joined Schengen piecemeal; they all agreed to merge the NPU into Schengen together and at the same time (although I believe the NPU is technically still valid, and grants a few extra rights to intra-Nordic travel & Nordic citizens).

Agreed on that too. The NPU would simply be merged into Schegen much in the same way it was in OTL only now with Sweden as a Schegen member outside of the EU.
 
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