I recently created a thread which was an AHC to wank Tuva, and after getting an idea from a post on the thread to create a Tannu Uriankhai wank timeline, I found out that the main reason why Subutai joined Temujin's clan was because his brother, Jelme was originally given to Temujin but was refused due to his age. What would be the implications if Jelme was never taken to Temujin again?
Is there any chance of making this what if work?Well, this does not mean that Jelme would not join Genghis on his own will or that Subutai would not come to serve him and would not make a career: the options for the capable people in that time and place had been limited and their family seems to be linked to Temujin anyway.
Is there any chance of making this what if work?
Well, would there be any difference if Subotai eventually came to lead the Tannu Uriankhai instead of becoming a general under Temujin?What would be “what if”? Mongolian conquests without Subotai? This is potentially a very interesting subject but it requires a thorough study to go beyond very superficial level.
For example, we know tha Subotai was planning and overseeing conquest of Rus and Western Campaign. Can we say with any certainty that they would fail without him? I would not risk such a statement even if simply because at that time the Mongolian military system was clearly superior to those of the European opponents. Was there an alternative on a strategic level (coordination of the widely separated Mongolian forces)? We do not know. Subotai did not plan the initial campaign in China or campaign against Khwaresm so there were obviously other talents.
Before and after the European campaigns he was very instrumental in conquest of China but in the early campaigns he was one of the talented generals and Genghis left Muqali as his viceroy while on the late stages the conquest had been completed by others.
What would be “what if”? Mongolian conquests without Subotai? This is potentially a very interesting subject but it requires a thorough study to go beyond very superficial level.
For example, we know tha Subotai was planning and overseeing conquest of Rus and Western Campaign. Can we say with any certainty that they would fail without him? I would not risk such a statement even if simply because at that time the Mongolian military system was clearly superior to those of the European opponents. Was there an alternative on a strategic level (coordination of the widely separated Mongolian forces)? We do not know. Subotai did not plan the initial campaign in China or campaign against Khwaresm so there were obviously other talents.
Before and after the European campaigns he was very instrumental in conquest of China but in the early campaigns he was one of the talented generals and Genghis left Muqali as his viceroy while on the late stages the conquest had been completed by others.
I doubt that such an uprising would be realistic and, anyway, Subutai was a great general but not necessarily a great organizer so what would be the chance of his tribe to stand up to the Mongolian military system and why would they oppose it to start with? They got seamlessly incorporated into a bigger entity which promised a greater loot than they ever could expect to get on their own. Not to mention that Genghis created a rather unique system in which a capable man could raise almost to the top (in OTL Subutai had been given a Ghengizid princess as a wife but of course he could not become a inane) but within the old tribal system this was simply impossible so Sibutai’s chances to became a leader of tgevUriankhai would be minimal.Well, would there be any difference if Subotai eventually came to lead the Tannu Uriankhai instead of becoming a general under Temujin?
IMO Subutai is thoroughly capable of beating Temujin, and almost anyone else in history, in a one-off battle with equal resources. Temujin was a great strategic thinker but Subutai was the best tactician the Mongols had, which is saying a lot. But the thing with Temujin is, as said above, he was maybe the greatest organizer of all time, be that in the sense of his army and administration, or in terms of getting the Mongol tribes to work together as one. Tremendous at recognizing and cultivating talent, no matter who had it, and tremendous at choosing his moments wisely. The loss of Subutai would definitely hurt the Mongol cause of expansion, but I think Temujin would beat him through superior organization, and conquer without him. Subutai was tremendous, but he was only a part of the larger Mongol machine. By the time Jelme was given to Temujin, that machine was beginning to roll, and it was probably already too late.
The best-case scenario for Subutai and the Uriankhai, then, is probably one where Temujin never appears or rises at all. I don't know if there's another person in human history who did what Temujin did as well as he did it, but I do think Subutai, if he somehow comes to lead the Uriankhai (while he was of low status so this isn't particularly likely, Temujin himself was only of relatively minor nobility, and such things did happen on the steppe), is capable of defeating any other steppe chieftain and taking the Uriankhai to at least temporary supremacy among the Mongols. From there, I'd say it's unlikely he builds the Mongols into the kind of war machine Temujin did, but then again, I'd say Temujin's machine was ASB if it didn't really exist. And I do think Subutai was an unimpeachably great tactician, easily the best of his era, and that definitely counts for something.
Quite agree with almost everything, especially your assessment of Genghis. Just couple comments: while Subotai is the best known of his generals, mostly due to his campaigns in Europe, there were other great generals who raised under Genghis, sometimes from a relative obscurity, like Muqali. This being said, Genghis himself was not a great battlefield commander.
OTOH, it is not right to define Subotai just as a great tactician because he was also a strategist to whom very few known commanders can be compared. While I can’t comment competently on his later campaign in China and credit for the great raid is shared with Jebe, the Russian campaign and Western campaign are his. What makes his achievements even more remarkable is that he was formally not in charge and that, formally, every Genghizid Prince was his superior. Taking into an account that they were at each other throats, a big part of his task was not to let their quarrels to impact the campaign plans.
That's a good point, especially re: his managing to keep the Genghisid Princes from meddling in his campaigns. Part of that was because Temujin sponsored him, but the fact that Subutai maintained his position and ran major campaigns 20 years after Temujin's death definitely says something about his diplomatic acumen, and is promising for his potential as an independent ruler if OP wants to go in that direction.
That's a good point, especially re: his managing to keep the Genghisid Princes from meddling in his campaigns. Part of that was because Temujin sponsored him, but the fact that Subutai maintained his position and ran major campaigns 20 years after Temujin's death definitely says something about his diplomatic acumen, and is promising for his potential as an independent ruler if OP wants to go in that direction.